[Filled] PROP BET: Bitcoin crashes harder when Mt Gox reopens

[danieldaniel]

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

Shipped BTC1.000057.  

Thank you daniel daniel and blockbet. Let's have fun.

And let the good times roll!

Reminded me of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_7Rzty6xjg.

Love is nice when it's understood... Even nicer when it makes you feel good!
You got me trippin' why our love is old....
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!

[1715489526]

1715489526

[1715489526]

1715489526

[1715489526]

1715489526

[danieldaniel]

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

Shipped BTC1.000057.  

Thank you daniel daniel and blockbet. Let's have fun.

And let the good times roll!

Reminded me of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_7Rzty6xjg.

Love is nice when it's understood... Even nicer when it makes you feel good!
You got me trippin' why our love is old....
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!

[IveBeenBit]

Depending on the exchange - coins are going anywhere from $75-99 right now. What madness! 

[dooglus]

Sorry, I've been offline for a couple of hours.  I came back to check if you guys still needed an escrow, with plenty of time before Gox reopens, but I see you've already got it sorted out.

If there's a crazy-ass spread, then there will be lots of trades on both sides of the spread.  If the spread spans your target price, I'd count that as a loss, since trades will happen both above and below your price.

I sure hope the price doesn't collapse when Gox reopens.  I'm betting significantly more than 1.5 BTC on that... 

[blockbet.net]

Well, this is interesting. MtGox seems to be down again.

[dooglus]

Well, this is interesting. MtGox seems to be down again.

What if MtGox is down for significant periods of the bet's 24 hours?  That helps the price not drop below $57.  What if there's a single trade below $57 and then MtGox is down for 4 hours?  Is that 4 hours below $57?

It's looking like the price is staying above $57 for now, so hopefully that won't be an issue, but what if?

[blockbet.net]

MtGox is back up. We can add a few more hours to the clock if that's okay, I'm quite confident that it won't go below the minimum.

[danieldaniel]

MtGox is back up. We can add a few more hours to the clock if that's okay, I'm quite confident that it won't go below the minimum.

Just so I can make sure to do this correctly, what time, exactly, did it go back up?

[blockbet.net]

I'm not sure, but I posted my message soon after I saw it back online. I suppose total downtime was maybe 1-2 hours.

[danieldaniel]

I'm not sure, but I posted my message soon after I saw it back online. I suppose total downtime was maybe 1-2 hours.

Ok.  What time do you want to end the clock?  Is 12 tonight good?  IveBeenBtc: If you can confirm this when he says it, that would be cool.

BTW, I'm not going to be awake then, so I'll check it first thing in the morning.

[danieldaniel]

Alright, one problem: I'm going out of town tomorrow.  I can wake up early and finish the escrow transaction, but I need both of your Bitcoin addresses now in case you're not here tomorrow morning.

Please either post them here or PM me with them.

[blockbet.net]

We can add two hours to the clock, so I'd suggest to end it at 04 UTC. I'm quite certain that at this point, it won't drop below $57 (apart from a few minor transactions), during the weekend, and hopefully never.

If I win and there are no issues, you can send it to 1NPR4t6saVWuJMt9UmaGk5DLfTsqoMFazc. Feel free to take 0.1 BTC as a thank you for helping us out, so send 2.9 BTC any time you're free to do so, no hurry.

[danieldaniel]

We can add two hours to the clock, so I'd suggest to end it at 04 UTC. I'm quite certain that at this point, it won't drop below $57 (apart from a few minor transactions), during the weekend, and hopefully never.

If I win and there are no issues, you can send it to 1NPR4t6saVWuJMt9UmaGk5DLfTsqoMFazc. Feel free to take 0.1 BTC as a thank you for helping us out, so send 2.9 BTC any time you're free to do so, no hurry.

So 12 PM EST.  Thanks

[IveBeenBit]

Looks like the real crash is taking longer to happen than I first thought. It's not looking good for my bet. Hehehe.

I think Gox was down ~2 hours. So we'll officially conclude at midnight Eastern time.

You can use the same address that I sent to you if the price suddenly tanks. I'll have limited Internet access this weekend, but I'll catch up with everything on Monday.

Since I'm almost certain I'm going to lose: Congratulations blockbet, and thanks DD for handling escrow.

[danieldaniel]

On my escrow address, it says I sent 1.5 btc to someone.  It was actually only some of my personal BTC, but it sent it from that address instead of the one with my personal BTC.  I still have the full 3 Bitcoins.

http://grab.by/lAKI

[danieldaniel]

Looks like the real crash is taking longer to happen than I first thought. It's not looking good for my bet. Hehehe.

I think Gox was down ~2 hours. So we'll officially conclude at midnight Eastern time.

You can use the same address that I sent to you if the price suddenly tanks. I'll have limited Internet access this weekend, but I'll catch up with everything on Monday.

Since I'm almost certain I'm going to lose: Congratulations blockbet, and thanks DD for handling escrow.

Hey,
Would you mind if I send the 3 BTC to blockbet.net now, so I don't have to send it to him at 4 AM tomorrow? 

If you don't feel comfortable with that, it's perfectly fine (and I'll send it to him tomorrow), but I'd figure it can't hurt to ask. 

[IveBeenBit]

DD if you have places to go, then send blockbet his winnings. I have 4 1/2 hours left and will need the price to go down 50% to win.

If something really strange happens and I win, then I hope that blockbet would settle up with me. But the chance of that is so small that I don't mind if you pay out now.

Thanks again.

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!   

[danieldaniel]

DD if you have places to go, then send blockbet his winnings. I have 4 1/2 hours left and will need the price to go down 50% to win.

If something really strange happens and I win, then I hope that blockbet would settle up with me. But the chance of that is so small that I don't mind if you pay out now.

Thanks again.

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!    

You're great!  I'll send him his winnings now, then.

Congratulations blockbet!  Transaction ID: 3efc5f5adfa4b7b7a1749baaa0d887f30edd050297cc8665262215337cec7b34

[cul]

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!   

not with those kind of bets you won't. I joined this forum just to try and get a slice of your bet but I was newbie restricted. your bet is a scaled down version of betting money on the world to end. if you win its immaterial. in this example if you win your bet you won 1.5 units of something losing value and if you lose the bet its 1.5 units of the same thing appreciating in value. The more "right" you are the less your bet is worth. how do you ever want to be on the other end of that?

[tolan77]

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!   

not with those kind of bets you won't. I joined this forum just to try and get a slice of your bet but I was newbie restricted. your bet is a scaled down version of betting money on the world to end. if you win its immaterial. in this example if you win your bet you won 1.5 units of something losing value and if you lose the bet its 1.5 units of the same thing appreciating in value. The more "right" you are the less your bet is worth. how do you ever want to be on the other end of that?

It is kind of contradictory but he probably doesn't believe it'll stay decreasing(e.g. the world ending) and it might be a 'fun' way for him to pick up some coins instead of buying them.He was more betting on the insanity of the selloff when gox reopened than bitcoin staying down.