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Author Topic: Network Hashrate  (Read 1928 times)
toni_iommi
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April 12, 2013, 12:46:52 AM
 #1

http://i.imgur.com/wPfBSof.jpg?1

I do not understand why the network hash rate fluctuates so much.  From 63,000 to 78,000 back to 60,000. With such magnitude (and frequency).

My thoughts on the causes:

1) People are turning their miners off when they go to sleep at night.
2) The new asic are unreliable and need to cool down and be restarted every two days.
3) When the price of bitcoins surges billions of people turn on CPU miners.

Seriously though can anyone really explain this to me?

toni_iommi     Holding and Mining


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wildbud
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April 12, 2013, 12:50:21 AM
 #2

I was wondering the same thing ....
kjj
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April 12, 2013, 01:17:03 AM
 #3

The network hash rate is not measured, it is estimated.  These graphs are showing the actual (unknown) hashrate + random walk noise.  Don't take any graph with a granularity finer than a month or so to be meaningful.

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toni_iommi
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April 12, 2013, 01:23:43 AM
 #4

Thanks.  Makes sense.

I think I will apply the same logic to the Bitcoin price.  Everything looks good from here. (or there)
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April 12, 2013, 03:05:49 AM
 #5

I wouldn't be surprised if many people who just found out about BTC mining in the last month or two started using their gaming PCs to mine. Now that the price has fallen, they've decided it's not worth it. I hope more do the same so that the hashrate isn't too ginormous by the time I get my batch 3 Avalons  Grin

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April 14, 2013, 04:59:33 AM
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I wouldn't be surprised if many people who just found out about BTC mining in the last month or two started using their gaming PCs to mine. Now that the price has fallen, they've decided it's not worth it. I hope more do the same so that the hashrate isn't too ginormous by the time I get my batch 3 Avalons  Grin

For a drop like that, its quite a bit of people.

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April 14, 2013, 05:01:30 AM
 #7

BFL probably turned off all their ASICs and are now preparing to ship them to customers.

/BFLfanboylukejrpost

Got that out of the way early.  Smiley
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April 14, 2013, 06:00:40 PM
 #8

A window of a month doesn't make sense as there is actual variation day to day, week to week, at significant amounts. Unfortunately it's similar to the uncertainty principle, the tighter your make your observation window to get a current sense of hashrate, the more variance you will end up with, the broader you make your window the more you screen out actual changes into a blur of average.

Excepting for times of exceptional anamolies, I've found the 5 day rolling window seems to provide the best of both worlds. The 3 day average on sipa is good too.

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April 14, 2013, 08:10:20 PM
 #9

Add into that the previously stated people just learning about bitcoin generation, and giving up after a few days, network connectivity and any events affecting connection to pools, ect.

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BTC:  14NvriZHaLyTqaG8phYMagN2gB9WsB3Sj5    NMC:  N7XPo3E3fEDAFUhyrvQBHzYkA45kkjWDse
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