Periodic shakeouts, parabolic rise forming

[Hyena]

Seems like we are recovering quickly from this last shakeout of the weak hands. But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

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[BillyBobZorton]

Seems like we are recovering quickly from this last shakeout of the weak hands. But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

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Good catch. I think it's because the market is a cyclical phenomenon. At the end of the day the market is just a big number of actors taking decisions influenced by each other. This hivemind creates certain patterns. At the end of the day, the graph is showing solid growth, and bitcoin recovers always at a higher price after the bubbles crash. This means non holders are getting increasingly nervous trying to wait for a perfect price and get in as soon as the ongoing bubble crashes. As the ongoing bubbles don't crash as as hard, the holders don't panic sell as hard it's also deductible. In other words the asset is getting stronger with time. Everyone knows bitcoin is the most exciting thing to hold long term on earth.

[eddie13]

Everyone knows bitcoin is the most exciting thing to hold long term on earth.

Can't argue with that..

If you decide to hodl BTC you very likely will not be bored..

[Pierre 2]

At the end of the day, the graph is showing solid growth, and bitcoin recovers always at a higher price after the bubbles crash. This means non holders are getting increasingly nervous trying to wait for a perfect price and get in as soon as the ongoing bubble crashes. As the ongoing bubbles don't crash as as hard, the holders don't panic sell as hard it's also deductible. In other words the asset is getting stronger with time. Everyone knows bitcoin is the most exciting thing to hold long term on earth.

I completely agree with these sentences, bitcoin market is one of the most SOLID ones,
if you think about how speculative is. If bitcoin keeps this cycle till next halving, noone will be surprised to see 5k-10k prices.

[manselr]

Seems like we are recovering quickly from this last shakeout of the weak hands. But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

Did you try to do the same thing with the all time graph? I just did and the parabola fits in perfectly as well... that is very revealing. If you start drawing the parabolic trajectory at 2 dollars, you'll see the current growth fits in within the line. I don't know what this means but unless something changes, we are still experiencing parabolic growth, in practice bitcoin's uptrend never stopped.

[Hyena]

Seems like we are recovering quickly from this last shakeout of the weak hands. But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

Did you try to do the same thing with the all time graph? I just did and the parabola fits in perfectly as well... that is very revealing. If you start drawing the parabolic trajectory at 2 dollars, you'll see the current growth fits in within the line. I don't know what this means but unless something changes, we are still experiencing parabolic growth, in practice bitcoin's uptrend never stopped.

No I didn't try that but it is true indeed.

[Ektra]

But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

They aren't, the gap decreased by about 2 months or about 25%...

[NUFCrichard]

Following the log trend line, what do you predict the price will be in Jan 2017? It looks like you predict about $100k!

I don't buy the whole weaker hands theory. At some point a rally ends, that might well be the case now, it might not be too.
I think we could be seeing a double top, with a fall back to $800 or so afterwards. I hope I am wrong though, I would love to see $1500 sometime soon.

[manselr]

Following the log trend line, what do you predict the price will be in Jan 2017? It looks like you predict about $100k!

I don't buy the whole weaker hands theory. At some point a rally ends, that might well be the case now, it might not be too.
I think we could be seeing a double top, with a fall back to $800 or so afterwards. I hope I am wrong though, I would love to see $1500 sometime soon.

It's impossible to know if this is a double top with another fallback to $800 after potentially touching $1000 again but who wants to gamble their moon tickets to get 20% profit, when down the line you can make 100% by just holding? I don't think shorting bitcoin right now it's worth the risk but it's your money so good look everyone.

[Hyena]

This could turn out to be a cup and handle pattern.

I think 10 000$ bitcoins is a plausible target for 2017.'

But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

They aren't, the gap decreased by about 2 months or about 25%...

That's exact enough for me to be called exact.

[Pattberry]

I really could not understand what these periodic shakeouts and parabolic rise are and i am finding it difficult to understand these terms as i am not well versed in commerce i guess but the prediction of $10000 in this year is an optical illusion but really good to see this hypothesis.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I've kind of always wondered how those periodic spikes form, not just with bitcoin but in the stock market as well.  I don't have a clue what goes into how any particular chart forms, other than maybe very big money is doing some periodic buying (or selling). 

I hear that phrase "weak hands" a lot on this forum.  That's meant to refer to people who panic sell, I assume.  And there's always going to be plenty of that anytime we get ginormous runups like we've had these past few weeks.  I am not a pair of those weak hands, however.  I've been buying a little here and there.

[dalexc]

I definitely foresee the cup and handle formation beginning.

But $10,000? Definitely not this year.

[Miz4r]

I definitely foresee the cup and handle formation beginning.

But $10,000? Definitely not this year.

It could happen if Segwit and ETF both are accepted this year. Doesn't seem very likely right now though.

[alyssa85]

I think it's because the market is a cyclical phenomenon. At the end of the day the market is just a big number of actors taking decisions influenced by each other. This hivemind creates certain patterns.

The hivemind is also known as TA 

Seriously, while trading is dominated by people using TA, we'll continue to see patterns like this. But if there was a genuine influx of new buyers into the system, the pattern might be broken (because the new users would be coming in because of some real world problem, rather than because they were day-trading using TA).

[Zadicar]

Nice technical analysis here which it really shows parabolic pattern which means it indicates an uptrend on bitcoins price which is somehow a good vibe for us but TA doesnt work accurately on bitcoin because it does depend on adoption and price movements would really vary.

[CyberKuro]

Everyone knows bitcoin is the most exciting thing to hold long term on earth.

Can't argue with that..

If you decide to hodl BTC you very likely will not be bored..

Agreed, stunning to read that "on earth".
Yeah, I never bored and always excited to see what happens, what next, and feel happier if the price goes up.
Another felt of disappointed to sell my precious bitcoin.

But, the price seems stable right now at $890-910.
I don't think it bad after those correction and manipulated.
But the weak hand still have effect on the price as we go down after recovered.

[lumeire]

The cyclic pattern may mean another thing, that It'll correct and fall down again in the few weeks to come. Hopefully it doesn't go real low.

[valta4065]

Seems like we are recovering quickly from this last shakeout of the weak hands. But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

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Well I'm not sure about a parabolic rise.
The reasons come down to the very technical problems of bitcoin. I made a transaction 3 days ago and mempool was so full it took 14h to complete. Oh my fees maybe weren't the best but they were clearly not non-existent, I paid 30 cents for a transaction that took 14h...
So there can't be a parabolic rise without a massive adoption and there can't be a massive adoption with such important problems!
But I agree, you have to be completely crazy to see anything else but and upper trend in this...

[manselr]

Seems like we are recovering quickly from this last shakeout of the weak hands. But why are those periodic with nearly exact time intervals?

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Well I'm not sure about a parabolic rise.
The reasons come down to the very technical problems of bitcoin. I made a transaction 3 days ago and mempool was so full it took 14h to complete. Oh my fees maybe weren't the best but they were clearly not non-existent, I paid 30 cents for a transaction that took 14h...
So there can't be a parabolic rise without a massive adoption and there can't be a massive adoption with such important problems!
But I agree, you have to be completely crazy to see anything else but and upper trend in this...

Wrong, there CAN be a parabolic rise without massive adoption... it would only take the big whales of the fiat, gold and stocks gold to move small percentages of their wealth into bitcoin to drive the price to 6 figures a coin, but of course, we ideally want massive adoption too, but the thing is, without segwit + lightning network we will never have massive adoption. The devs are doing a good job, they already got segwit, now it's miner's turn to hurry the fuck up and activate it already. Blame it on them.