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Author Topic: Guys, relax. This up down volatility is all 100% perfectly normal  (Read 2500 times)
nightminer
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April 12, 2013, 11:51:20 AM
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In case you missed it, user venikk posted this on reddit this morning.

It is the price of silver in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2012. Seems familiar?

http://imgur.com/a/zn3ry

The great thing about bitcoin is that it teaches a whole lot of people about markets, buying, selling, bull runs, bubbles. Stuff most people never heard of before.

I think that's great.

So relax, get your tools in place, because the next big run is coming around again... and again.

I thinking of coding something that will give me an early warning when things go haywire. Let me know if you might be interested in something like that.


http://www.mybitalert.com/  -  Bitcoin Price change Alerts via Email, SMS, twitter and more.
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l0ud
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April 12, 2013, 12:04:15 PM
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I thinking of coding something that will give me an early warning when things go haywire. Let me know if you might be interested in something like that.



I most definitively would be interested Smiley
Izerian
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April 12, 2013, 12:07:12 PM
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I thinking of coding something that will give me an early warning when things go haywire. Let me know if you might be interested in something like that.



I most definitively would be interested Smiley

Bumping for interest.

What are you coding in?
johnyj
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April 12, 2013, 12:07:31 PM
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Yes, silver is a highly manipulated market, maybe due to the majority of silver are hold by a few private hands. It's the same for today's bitcoin market, hope this situation will improve after more players join the trade

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April 12, 2013, 12:11:03 PM
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I thinking of coding something that will give me an early warning when things go haywire. Let me know if you might be interested in something like that.



Im interested, especially if you'd prefer python
greyhawk
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April 12, 2013, 12:13:59 PM
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Guys, relax. This up down volatility is all 100% perfectly normal

It is, too. See here:

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April 12, 2013, 12:42:44 PM
 #7

Oh wow

Own address: 19QkqAza7BHFTuoz9N8UQkryP4E9jHo4N3 - Pywallet support: 1AQDfx22pKGgXnUZFL1e4UKos3QqvRzNh5 - Bitcointalk++ script support: 1Pxeccscj1ygseTdSV1qUqQCanp2B2NMM2
Pywallet: instructions. Encrypted wallet support, export/import keys/addresses, backup wallets, export/import CSV data from/into wallet, merge wallets, delete/import addresses and transactions, recover altcoins sent to bitcoin addresses, sign/verify messages and files with Bitcoin addresses, recover deleted wallets, etc.
tryingtobeperfect
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April 12, 2013, 12:45:20 PM
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Yeah.. Drop of $266 to $54 in 2days is absolutely normal Tongue lol!
nightminer
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April 12, 2013, 12:49:56 PM
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Yeah.. Drop of $266 to $54 in 2days is absolutely normal Tongue lol!

Well sure there were external factors (ie MtGox), but every massive market drop had an external factor. So yes, it is (unfortunately) normal.


http://www.mybitalert.com/  -  Bitcoin Price change Alerts via Email, SMS, twitter and more.
tclo
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April 12, 2013, 01:30:24 PM
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Yeah.. Drop of $266 to $54 in 2days is absolutely normal Tongue lol!

Yes it is normal for a speculative bubble built on buying panic and no fundamentals....that is what the charts above show.
BitSlut69
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April 12, 2013, 01:34:16 PM
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Volatility in the bitcoin price is normal, but half of the exchanges being down at any given time is not normal.
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April 12, 2013, 02:28:52 PM
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Yes it is normal for a speculative bubble built on buying panic and no fundamentals....that is what the charts above show.

This.
Wuji
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April 12, 2013, 02:42:44 PM
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In case you missed it, user venikk posted this on reddit this morning.

It is the price of silver in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2012. Seems familiar?

http://imgur.com/a/zn3ry

The great thing about bitcoin is that it teaches a whole lot of people about markets, buying, selling, bull runs, bubbles. Stuff most people never heard of before.

I think that's great.

So relax, get your tools in place, because the next big run is coming around again... and again.

I thinking of coding something that will give me an early warning when things go haywire. Let me know if you might be interested in something like that.

You are comparing commodities to something that is supposed to have value based on being a usable currency.  Sure speculation and volatility are normal for commodities.  Speculators trade commodities.  However, volatility makes currency useless.  If Bitcoin is not a useful currency it has no usefulness.  Precious metals however do have a usefulness however, slight that may be perceived.  Apples and Oranges my friend.
Malawi
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April 12, 2013, 02:50:26 PM
 #14

But still - both apples and oranges are fruits.  Cool

BitCoin is NOT a pyramid - it's a pagoda.
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April 12, 2013, 02:54:20 PM
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Yeah.. Drop of $266 to $54 in 2days is absolutely normal Tongue lol!

We also went from $15 to $266 in 2 months. Neither is normal, they cancel out (mostly) and you are left with:

~500% increase in price.
A bunch of people leaving gox
Everybody running around in circles acting like idiots.

CoinLenders - Bitcoin Bank Script / Demo
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nightminer
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April 12, 2013, 02:55:02 PM
 #16

Bitcoin is both a currency and a commodity.

From CNN

https://medium.com/money-banking/2b5ef79482cb

Quote
In reality, then, bitcoin doesn’t really behave like a currency at all. In terms of its market value, it looks much more like a highly-volatile commodity. That’s by design: bitcoins were created to be the most fungible commodity the world had ever seen – to the point at which they would effectively erase the distinction between a commodity and a currency.

But is that a good idea?

So yes, bitcoins are both apples and oranges at the same time. Maybe that is part of its value.

http://www.mybitalert.com/  -  Bitcoin Price change Alerts via Email, SMS, twitter and more.
Wuji
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April 12, 2013, 02:55:18 PM
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But still - both apples and oranges are fruits.  Cool

True story and fruits and nuts will tend to buy things even when they are overpriced with little value.  Sad
Wuji
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April 12, 2013, 02:58:42 PM
 #18

Bitcoin is both a currency and a commodity.

From CNN

https://medium.com/money-banking/2b5ef79482cb

Quote
In reality, then, bitcoin doesn’t really behave like a currency at all. In terms of its market value, it looks much more like a highly-volatile commodity. That’s by design: bitcoins were created to be the most fungible commodity the world had ever seen – to the point at which they would effectively erase the distinction between a commodity and a currency.

But is that a good idea?

So yes, bitcoins are both apples and oranges at the same time. Maybe that is part of its value.

Yes people are able to abuse it like a commodity because it does not yet heavy usage.  You would need trillions of dollars to even begin to affect a real currency like the USD and even then the Fed Reserve could take counter measures.  Since Bitcoin is does not have enough adoption it is being treated as a commodity.  The problem is that beyond currency Bitcoin does not actually have a use.  Oil, Bananas, Gas, Frozen concentrated orange juice, Gold, Silver are commodities that are tangible and have a use beyond being used as a currency (although they can be used as currency and some have).  Hell even paper money can keep you warm in a fire or wallpaper your house (just ask the Germans).

This is why Bitcoins are probably really only worth less than $10, lack of adoption.  Not $1000 or $10,000 as speculators would love for you to believe.  Don't buy into they hype and if you do expect to lose your shirts unless you are smart enough to buy low and sell high.  I stopped buying last time at $14 and sold at $230.
Wuji
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April 12, 2013, 03:05:22 PM
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[V]olatility makes currency useless.  If Bitcoin is not a useful currency it has no usefulness.

Not entirely accurate, but true, nonetheless.

I agree with that.  It is not true with small volatility but, you can't tell me at $266-$105 in one day anyone was successfully and happily using BTC to exchange goods.  The bigger these swings the less usage.  Now that there are 1000 times as many speculators as users, things look much dimmer.
lemonginger
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April 12, 2013, 03:39:26 PM
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As a tool for exchange, it doesn't matter what price BTC are at, the most important think is stability. Imagine trying to be TSR which hedges BTC against fiat these past two weeks. On the other hand, it is clear more people are using bitcoin to try and store value and/or speculate, in which case the price rise is good/.

Nevertheless, people should forget about the run up to $XXX, it was never sustainable. Look at things in about 90day moving averages and get a better picture, the rest is noise.

Everyone saying that major money is about to move into bitcoin (some of it already has of course, look at the Winklevosses) is silly though. Even the highest flying most gambling traders aren't going to touch a smallish manipulated market, with only one exchange that can declare trading freezes whenever it wants. that is seeing 100% swings a day

Keep calm and carry on, I think most of us now that it's not bitcoin that will eventually be used anyway, it's something that will come out of bitcoin or be built on top of bitcoin. At the moment the infrastructure of this currency is still in alpha stages, nowhere near ready for average person to start using it. Christ, we just had a blockchain split less than a month ago, it was handled well, but that shit can't happen when BTC are worth $100+!
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