SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal

[SlipperySlope]

I have managed to increase my family wealth by 41% APR, over the course of 10 years.

Commendable - and a great example for your clients.

nobody has ever taken my puts even though they are reasonably priced.

After this bubble collapse is fully played out, I too, would like to consider writing options, but on MPOE via CoinBr. There is more liquidity on an exchange as contrasted to OTC, of course.

[SlipperySlope]

22 days after the April 10 peak



I believe that this is the second day of the first and greatest capitulation of Bitcoin Bubble 2.

$110 marks the upper limit of what I have dubbed 'The Bagholder's Ball'. Below this point, a very substantial portion of all April - May bitcoin purchases show a nominal loss. Consequently, trading bitcoin holders sell out according to their respective degrees of temporal risk acceptance - and the last ones to sell, well - they lose the most.

[rograz]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_holidays_in_Japan#Holidays_in_2013

All those holidays won't help with stopping the current trend either.

[Kaiji]

What surprises me is that there was no real peak before this current crash. Prices were pretty much level for a long time.

[SlipperySlope]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_holidays_in_Japan#Holidays_in_2013

All those holidays won't help with stopping the current trend either.

Right! Its easy, and only six confirmations away, to move bitcoin from some big-money wallet into Mt. Gox for sale. Harder and slower to get fiat in for purchase.

[rpietila]

Just remember, only about 1.5M bitcoins are in speculative (fiat-denominated) hands anyway. Even today I managed to sell about BTC150 to my clients. That is 1/10000 of all speculative position of the world combined.

I think bitcoin is going up.

[bitcon]

22 days after the April 10 peak



I believe that this is the second day of the first and greatest capitulation of Bitcoin Bubble 2.

$110 marks the upper limit of what I have dubbed 'The Bagholder's Ball'. Below this point, a very substantial portion of all April - May bitcoin purchases show a nominal loss. Consequently, trading bitcoin holders sell out according to their respective degrees of temporal risk acceptance - and the last ones to sell, well - they lose the most.

that chart has us forecast straight to $0 in 6 hrs.

[SlipperySlope]

I think bitcoin is going up.

The comparable capitulation from the first bubble was six days start-to-bottom. We are only two days into this one.

[SlipperySlope]

23 days after the April 10 peak



I believe that we are in the third day of the Great Capitulation of 2013. Recall that the corresponding capitulation back in 2011 dropped 55% from $13 to $6 during a six-day fall to the bottom of that capitulation.

The region between $110 and $60, I have dubbed the Bagholder's Ball, as nearly all the bitcoin purchases on Mt. Gox from April 1 to May 2 are nominal losers below $110 - and will be strongly motivated to sell.

[SAQ]

Why is this capitulation Great rather than just you know capitulation?

If it went from 70 to 10 in two days then you might be justified in calling it Great.

[SlipperySlope]

Why is this capitulation Great rather than just you know capitulation?

If it went from 70 to 10 in two days then you might be justified in calling it Great.

Good point. It is useful to give proper names to instance concepts that are frequently referred to, e.g everyone knows what the Great Depression, and Great Recession are. The bubble collapse of 2011 featured six selling capitulations. I named the first and most significant one the Great Capitulation of 2011.

I believe, and will not know for sure until this bubble collapse is complete, that the current capitulation will be the most significant one this time around - we have already dropped a crushing 45% in three days, and many traders now realize that the bubble is over.

Is this the Great Capitulation of 2013? I think so, and I think too that it is not over, and will not be the bottom of the bubble collapse.

[N12]

I named this bear market The Great Dollar Extraction.

Perhaps it should be called The Great Bitcoin Expansion, but it just doesn't have the same ring to it.

[ironstove]

the great doubling of my portfolio

[SlipperySlope]

the great doubling of my portfolio

+1

[rpietila]

I think bitcoin is going up.

The comparable capitulation from the first bubble was six days start-to-bottom. We are only two days into this one.

There was no bubble in April, 2013, since there was no negative month. Oh yes, and if you think we will be at $120 at the end of this month (to score a wash), you can as well sell all your bitcoins to me now 

[Babylon]

I think bitcoin is going up.

The comparable capitulation from the first bubble was six days start-to-bottom. We are only two days into this one.

There was no bubble in April, 2013, since there was no negative month. Oh yes, and if you think we will be at $120 at the end of this month (to score a wash), you can as well sell all your bitcoins to me now 

I'll sell you bitcoins for $120 now.  How many would you like?

[SlipperySlope]

There was no bubble in April, 2013, since there was no negative month.

By bubble, I mean the commonly accepted notion of speculative financial bubble as used by the press, traders, financiers and economists. I am not so much interested in your definition of bubble, but rather how you would characterize the price action from January 1 to present, and how to profit from it.

Namely, could you recognize the next bubble when it comes? And if you did, what actions would you take? If you do not accept that prices will be lower after a bitcoin bubble collapse then how can you execute a sell-high, buy-back-low trade - you would not have the preconditions to make the trade!

You believe that the underlying bitcoin economy is growing very very rapidly. I believe that it is growing very rapidly. My belief allows for bubbles.

[Rampion]

I think bitcoin is going up.

The comparable capitulation from the first bubble was six days start-to-bottom. We are only two days into this one.

There was no bubble in April, 2013, since there was no negative month. Oh yes, and if you think we will be at $120 at the end of this month (to score a wash), you can as well sell all your bitcoins to me now 

I'll sell you bitcoins for $120 now.  How many would you like?

Yeah, me too. Put your money where your mouth is. Willing to buy 500BTC at $120 in this precise moment?

[rpietila]

There was no bubble in April, 2013, since there was no negative month.

By bubble, I mean the commonly accepted notion of speculative financial bubble as used by the press, traders, financiers and economists. I am not so much interested in your definition of bubble, but rather how you would characterize the price action from January 1 to present, and how to profit from it.

Namely, could you recognize the next bubble when it comes? And if you did, what actions would you take? If you do not accept that prices will be lower after a bitcoin bubble collapse then how can you execute a sell-high, buy-back-low trade - you would not have the preconditions to make the trade!

You believe that the underlying bitcoin economy is growing very very rapidly. I believe that it is growing very rapidly. My belief allows for bubbles.

OK, but a great bubble was only in 2011, and the one that takes bitcoin to more than its long term value will be named the greatest bubble.

A bubble that is forgotten in 2 weeks is not a bubble in my vocabulary but maybe in yours, i am fine with it.

The only time I net sold bitcoin was over $200 (except some trades that I plan to buy back in max 6 hours, and some OTC trades that are wildly profitable marginwise, and I delay buyback max 72 hours; sometimes for the reason that it takes such long time to get the money to Bitstamp, other times I little bit play with my anticipation of a negative price action).

After dealer network, bubbles will be pretty much a thing of the past, so after June, no bubbles.

[zoolander]

After dealer network, bubbles will be pretty much a thing of the past, so after June, no bubbles.

LOL.