SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal

[Hawker]

I'm sure people will start referencing their BTC to fiat once the price begins to surge. I'ts just a wild dream now, but when BTC is 6 figures the urge will be hard to curb  

Right

I see this happening with all bugs, goldbugs, real estate bugs, stock bugs, and bitbugs, 'what will matter is how many houses/stocks/bitcoins/gold you have'.

This kind of reasoning leads to very poor risk management, great profits in a bubble, and disastrous loses once it bursts.

I also have yet to meet the first bug that recognized his/her arguments were false, even after they lost a fortune. 

You make a very good point.  And I say that as someone who tries to pick up a few Bitcoin every day trading.

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[Awhut]

There may (read: will) be more bubbles. But if BTC crashes from the 1000s I think it will be hard-pressed to see 100 again. I think an investment now is fairly safe, and with the potential for growth I think the risk is definitely merited. A catastrophic shortcoming in BTCs framework is really the only thing that scares me now. Even a government ban could not destroy BTC (though it would certainly damage it).

I think also as more investors jump on board we are going to see a push towards less speculation. Especially if there is another crash people should realize that the long-term vitality of BTC depends on its institutionalization. Once we get out of this sort of "golden period" of cheap BTC investors are going to turn their attention away from accumulating cheap BTC to protecting that investment. I think this recent news that the CFTC is thinking about regulating BTC could help a lot with that.

As they said "it's not Monopoly money". I think that is a really telling statement right there. It's a nice silent nod towards the legitimacy and potential of BTC.

[RationalSpeculator]

I'm sure people will start referencing their BTC to fiat once the price begins to surge. I'ts just a wild dream now, but when BTC is 6 figures the urge will be hard to curb  

Right

I see this happening with all bugs, goldbugs, real estate bugs, stock bugs, and bitbugs, 'what will matter is how many houses/stocks/bitcoins/gold you have'.

This kind of reasoning leads to very poor risk management, great profits in a bubble, and disastrous loses once it bursts.

I also have yet to meet the first bug that recognized his/her arguments were false, even after they lost a fortune. 

You make a very good point.  And I say that as someone who tries to pick up a few Bitcoin every day trading.

Thanks!

[SlipperySlope]

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible.

+1

[Rampion]

The logic is that Bitcoin will eventually go over $10,000 each.  Maybe in 20 years but it will happen.  So worrying about whether your Bitcoin have made a profit in dollar terms is meaningless - what you want to worry about it having as many Bitcoin as possible.

+1

That's it.

[SlipperySlope]

27 days after the April 11 peak

Prices have been generally falling the last two weeks.

Here is the primary bubble collapse trendline, suggested by the peak of the retracement from $80. The trend would be significantly strengthened if a low below $80 occurs, in particular if the new low touched a roughly parallel support line that passes through $80.

[liberty90]

I do get it- you want to beat Carlos Slim.
Please explain "fiat denominated hands" ...

I suppose, that by "fiat-denominated hands" he means people who still naively believe that real value lies in fiat, not in Bitcoin.

I'm not that optimistic as Mr Pietilla, but even I agree that BTC is better than fiat.

[randrace]

27 days after the April 11 peak

Prices have been generally falling the last two weeks.

Here is the primary bubble collapse trendline, suggested by the peak of the retracement from $80. The trend would be significantly strengthened if a low below $80 occurs, in particular if the new low touched a roughly parallel support line that passes through $80.

What witchcraft is this? Your support trendline is based on one day's low.

[SlipperySlope]

27 days after the April 11 peak

Prices have been generally falling the last two weeks.

Here is the primary bubble collapse trendline, suggested by the peak of the retracement from $80. The trend would be significantly strengthened if a low below $80 occurs, in particular if the new low touched a roughly parallel support line that passes through $80.

What witchcraft is this? Your support trendline is based on one day's low.

So sorry, the support line is a hypothesis dependent upon the strength of the identified declining resistance line. I draw it to give me more data from which to place the spread of buy limit orders that get triggered if and when the bubble collapses further.

[oda.krell]

Hey, SlipperySlope, you'll let me know if my contrarian posts get on your nerves. It's your thread after all.

Okay, so I don't find the support line (hypothesis or not) particularly convincing. Doesn't fit the rising lows. How about those two converging trends instead? (I tend to use typical price, but it also works when I graph candles instead).



Not *much* evidence, I admit, 2 points of contact only. Then again, the down trend you draw looks like it has 2 solid points as well, and a third one if I squint a bit :P Anyway, I'm not the first one to point out that it could be the case that there are two trends running towards each other.

But they're getting close, so we'll see soon: anything above 120 in the next days puts your prediction into question, anything below 90 mine. Interesting times.

EDIT: Prefer a log chart, actually. After all, both the upwards trend and the correction are most likely exponential. Doesn't change much, number wise: below 90 is a problem for me, above 120 for you.

[SlipperySlope]

Does resistance trump support at $105?

Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.

[Frozenlock]

If it doesn't, it's gonna explode! Kaboooom! 

[Miz4r]

I don't think the bubble is ready to collapse just yet. There's too much buzz around bitcoin going on, so many who believe in it or are curious about it. My guess is that $50 support is going to hold, $90 will be tested this week and next month we will be consolidating around 110-130. Really good news could be the spark for a new ATH, and bad news might send us towards $50, or even lower. Just my opinion, anything can happen.

[SlipperySlope]

Does resistance trump support at $105?

Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.

I believe that the green climbing support line represents bargain-hunting buyers. When these two trendlines collide, perhaps that is the point at which bargain hunting buyers decide the bubble is real and that prices will go lower if they wait.

[randrace]

But my fellow bargain hunting buyers are like me, they hold their BTC. We have no fear of a drop to as low as $50 where we will buy more. We have a mid term target of selling around $140. We never panic sell. Anyone who's been trading since say March won't get jumpy unless we go under around $45.

[Frozenlock]

But my fellow bargain hunting buyers are like me, they hold their BTC.

So they don't have any money left to buy.

Sell sell sell! 

[Odalv]

Does resistance trump support at $105?

Here is a larger look at the two colliding trends: red is the declining resistance trendline and green is the climbing support trendline. I believe that the resistance trend will dominate as the bubble collapses.

I believe that the green climbing support line represents bargain-hunting buyers. When these two trendlines collide, perhaps that is the point at which bargain hunting buyers decide the bubble is real and that prices will go lower if they wait.

.. or red line is out of ammo.

[Frozenlock]

.. or red line is out of ammo.

Yeah, only 170 kBTC for sale on MtGox... 

[Odalv]

.. or red line is out of ammo.

Yeah, only 170 kBTC for sale on MtGox... 

 and of course at higher cost :-)

[Rampion]

Selling pressure still there - lots of coins on the order book. But buying pressure increasing, $18M bid sum ATM. Sort of tense equilibrium.