SlipperySlope (OP)
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May 08, 2013, 09:58:08 PM Last edit: May 08, 2013, 10:15:22 PM by SlipperySlope |
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28 days after the April 10 peakA bubble collapse should be characterized by successfully lower peaks. This is a weaker bearish claim than the current bubble collapse trendline - that might still hold if the trendline is broken to the upside for a while. Here are the current candidates of yet unsurpassed peaks ... - April 9 - $266
- April 23 - $166
- April 28 - $149
- May 5 - $125
The longer time passes without these peaks being surpassed, I think, the more sentiment turns away from the notion that the bubble can indeed be reinflated.
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smoothie
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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May 08, 2013, 11:20:24 PM |
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Thought to quote this. Interesting... [edited to add new posts and to reflect current events] My principal comments regarding the short term bear case, and its potential for literally multiplying the number of bitcoins you sold to raise cash. Here [was] the short term bear case in a nutshell ... - There will be no more enticing and greed-inducing news stories from the media. Now the benchmark is the crash and how speculators lost so much.
- Investor sentiment, especially new investor sentiment has reversed. Impatience to buy has been replaced by caution
- What is the correct valuation of fiat/bitcoin given what we know now? Certainly while the price doubled four times from January, the bitcoin economy did not do as well in percentage growth. Correct valuation depends then mostly on just how much of the run up since January is emotion, e.g. greed.
- If the downtrend continues, then coin holders are tempted to sell coin expecting to buy back for less fiat.
It happened, so now let's discuss ... Question 1: what is the expected duration of the down trend? My rough guess as argued here is until September 2013. Question 2: how far down does the trend go? My rough guess looking at the price chart is that the bubble started in January at about 13.50, which gives a downside target. Bitcoin Bubble 1 Peaked June 8, 2011Bitcoin Bubble 2 Peaked April 10, 2013
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SlipperySlope (OP)
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May 09, 2013, 02:15:30 AM |
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Thank you Mr. Smoothie.
Folks reading this should know that I index my part of the thread from the first page. Recently I added a properly scaled comparison between the 2011 bubble and this one.
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zby
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May 09, 2013, 04:29:29 AM |
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... ... ... The 2011 bubble broke the long-term trend on the way down. I remember how S3052 was so sure that it would not - but it did and all hell broke lose.
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SlipperySlope (OP)
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May 09, 2013, 04:37:43 AM Last edit: May 09, 2013, 12:36:07 PM by SlipperySlope |
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The 2011 bubble broke the long-term trend on the way down. I remember how S3052 was so sure that it would not - but it did and all hell broke lose. Great point to remember. The April 2011 low was used to establish the support trendline before we reached the actual bottom - leading to great debate here at bitcointalk, but it turned out that April 2011 was part of that bubble.
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Frozenlock
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May 09, 2013, 08:12:53 AM |
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If I may, I would like to add some of my own analysis. Many "bears" here believe the support line will break under the resistance line, pointing to the 2011 bubble and the long and excruciating crash that followed. (Both lines should collide in the next 2 days, at around $115.) They might be right. Both charts kinda look similar. Let's look again: Here we see the peak, with the inevitable collapse, the rebound, the second crash... and so on. I think we all know this chart by heart now. Oh wait... Wrong chart. This is our chart: What the hell did I just show then? The gold "bubble" chart. Here is how it deflated: Now, obviously the timescales are different. But take a closer look. Observe how the "popping" is similar. And by similar I mean frikking identical. Everything is in log scale, so what we see really are relative changes. Contrary to gold however, our support is ascending. Notice how both support points occurred at almost the same places. The full gold chart: Disclaimer: contrary to 2011, I'm ready to drop a good chunk of my coins at a moment's notice. I will not simply hold all of them and miss a golden opportunity like the one that arose when BTC reached $4.
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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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May 09, 2013, 09:45:06 AM |
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Great post Frozenlock! When will you dump part of your coins? Why not now?
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smoothie
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May 09, 2013, 10:57:54 AM |
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Yup totally different time scales. Gold went into a 20 year consolidation after it peaked.
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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SlipperySlope (OP)
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May 09, 2013, 02:00:08 PM |
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If I may, I would like to add some of my own analysis. And thank you!
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SlipperySlope (OP)
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May 09, 2013, 02:23:40 PM |
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29 days after the April 10 peakA bubble collapse should be characterized by successively lower volume until the collapse is complete. Here is the June 8, 2011 bubble volume chart ... And for comparison, here is the correspond April 10, 2013 bubble chart ... Although the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1.
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David Rabahy
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May 09, 2013, 02:47:43 PM |
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And just about the time we've nearly perfected the technical analysis something different will come at us from the fundamental side of the house.
Is that a troll-like observation?
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ElectricMucus
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Marketing manager - GO MP
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May 09, 2013, 02:51:14 PM |
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Although the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1.
Also the gox api downtime coincides with the post "hack" shutdown period.
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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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May 09, 2013, 05:16:21 PM |
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And just about the time we've nearly perfected the technical analysis something different will come at us from the fundamental side of the house.
Is that a troll-like observation?
I would say it's an expression of hope
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SlipperySlope (OP)
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May 09, 2013, 05:38:30 PM |
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Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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May 09, 2013, 06:22:16 PM |
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Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
You bet! Bitcoin is so full of extremes. Sometimes volatility that I can't believe me eyes, other times, like now, the market seems almost dead.
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N12
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May 09, 2013, 06:24:39 PM |
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29 days after the April 10 peakA bubble collapse should be characterized by successively lower volume until the collapse is complete. Here is the June 8, 2011 bubble volume chart ... https://i.imgur.com/Wqgpcu2.pngAnd for comparison, here is the correspond April 10, 2013 bubble chart ... https://i.imgur.com/X3C2OOp.pngAlthough the recent bubble's volume is 10x higher, it diminishes from its peak in a manner very similar to that of bubble 1. Good job, very clean comparison. It will be very interesting to observe if we are indeed in July 2011.
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Frozenlock
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May 09, 2013, 06:27:35 PM |
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Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
Isn't that what is expected? Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
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SlipperySlope (OP)
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May 09, 2013, 06:37:48 PM |
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Does anyone get the feeling that the market is slowing down as we near the apex of the biggest triangle ever seen?
Isn't that what is expected? Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout. Yes, it is expected but it something to actually feel it. I now believe that the highest volume weeks of 2013 are behind us.
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Frozenlock
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May 09, 2013, 06:38:56 PM |
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Eh... more than 6 months remaining in the year... I would wait a little.
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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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May 09, 2013, 06:42:06 PM |
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Eh... more than 6 months remaining in the year... I would wait a little. SlipperySlope puts lots of thought in his posts. You can wait before recognizing that but it will likely come with a bill attached.
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