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Kevin77
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January 19, 2017, 07:05:45 AM
 #21

It is an expected value of bitcoin in future based on main stream adoption of bitcoin payment system. For that, bitcoin needs to come out of 'investment category' to move into 'momentary system'. But investment characteristic is what currently helping bitcoin to evolve in mass adoption.

The big reasons for bitcoin to have huge value is possibilities of world wide adoption. So, not just networth of USD, every country's currency also must be taken into consideration.

Moreover, not just world currencies, WU/PayPal kind of business potential net worth also should be considered as an influencing factor for bitcoin value determinations.



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January 19, 2017, 12:54:19 PM
 #22

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
It may get you with less than 100k/BTC, or even under 10k...

Edit: after a quick Google, if I calculated right, it would still be 500k$/BTC. WOW.

In fact, it wouldn't be any more meaningful

Since less than 20% out of ~200k metric tonnes of gold that was mined through history is potentially tradable. The rest is used in jewelry and electronics as well as stashed away for good. On the other hand, these comparisons are pointless as such since they are based on the current price of Bitcoin and evaluated in the same currency that Bitcoin is priced in (as per OP). A proper way of doing such estimates should be based on the global GDP in physical terms per number of coins in circulation

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January 19, 2017, 02:30:06 PM
 #23

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
It may get you with less than 100k/BTC, or even under 10k...

Edit: after a quick Google, if I calculated right, it would still be 500k$/BTC. WOW.

In fact, it wouldn't be any more meaningful

Since less than 20% of gold out of ~200k metric tonnes of gold that was mined through history is potentially tradable. The rest is used in jewelry and electronics as well as stashed away for good. On the other hand, these comparisons are pointless as such since they are based on the current price of Bitcoin and evaluated in the same currency that Bitcoin is priced in (as per OP). A proper way of doing such estimates should be based on the global GDP in physical terms per number of coins in circulation

Right now we compare the price of bitcoins and value it according to USD as our basis. Maybe in the future we would compare gold and USD and other currency to bitcoin and not the other way around like today. People would look to how much bitcoin is my USD worth today like that. That would be the day that I'd love to see.

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January 19, 2017, 03:20:45 PM
 #24

Sharing the opinion of other users above, I do not think that reaches this level, the rulers will not wait and watching Bitcoin take the place of local currencies, what I think will happen will be the same create the own cryptocurrency. I hope I am wrong and Bitcoin becomes the world currency.

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January 19, 2017, 03:32:27 PM
 #25

U.S. dollars have little to do with bitcoin anymore.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin in ICELAND - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
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January 19, 2017, 03:47:13 PM
 #26

U.S. dollars have little to do with bitcoin anymore.
I wish that was true but facts are out there for every one to see, USD is a paper money that 97% of all countries can not survive without it and any country or economy tries to resist will suffer painfully, however alternative to dollar is euro but that is not doing so well given recent events in green continent.
The important thing for bitcoin isn't adoption at a large scale but people believing and willing to exchange it for their valuable property something that has almost equal value and price worldwide like gold, fiat and as long as people have faith in bitcoin I'm sure increase in value will happen eventually.

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January 19, 2017, 07:55:43 PM
 #27

There is not a chance of that happening but I appreciate the effort to pull of those numbers, but even if it will never happen it show to use the tremendous potential bitcoin has for growth.

And that is exactly the point:

I don't expect it to fully replace fiat (not any time soon at least)--but this is the potential market that's at stake... and quite frankly, a lot more.  The value of derivative investments around the world is in the QUADRILLIONS.

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January 19, 2017, 08:02:44 PM
 #28

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
All the gold on earth in exchange for something that fits on a microsd card? That will never happen.
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January 19, 2017, 08:12:27 PM
 #29

Actually while fiat is plagued by inflation, goods like gold are not.
Somebody said that it's not known how much gold is lost or hidden. That's pretty much the same with Bitcoin.
Only a small percentage of gold is actually traded. And how much Bitcoin is in cold storage and paper wallets?

The analogy starts looking even better than yesterday Smiley

And I don't want to trade the gold for Bitcoin. I don't have safe storage for the gold Smiley  The calculation only tells that 500k$/BTC is not such an unrealistic possibility, just a lot more patience is needed.

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January 19, 2017, 08:15:42 PM
 #30

It is an expected value of bitcoin in future based on main stream adoption of bitcoin payment system. For that, bitcoin needs to come out of 'investment category' to move into 'momentary system'. But investment characteristic is what currently helping bitcoin to evolve in mass adoption.

The big reasons for bitcoin to have huge value is possibilities of world wide adoption. So, not just networth of USD, every country's currency also must be taken into consideration.

Moreover, not just world currencies, WU/PayPal kind of business potential net worth also should be considered as an influencing factor for bitcoin value determinations.

I mentioned this earlier, but I should say this again...

I AM taking every country's currency into account (along with the value of everyone's checking accounts), I'm just putting that # in terms of USD to reflect it as one number.

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January 19, 2017, 11:12:37 PM
 #31

U.S. dollars have little to do with bitcoin anymore.

Yep if bitcoin is a success then its because it wasnt tied to one country, or one bias in one section of the global economy.    Just allowing people to transfer value without political interference that is the useful and valuable thing that helps bitcoin price.    Theres got to be genius of enterprise all over the globe and tons of them are miles from any kind of wealth, we are losing the talent of those people and the wealth they would produce in their economies if given a chance.   True capitalism is competitive and you have to win that battle to gain the value, our system now is too biased to the standing powers, too many idle rich.   Bitcoin has massive velocity which I believe also benefits distribution and wealth production to those who start off small, in end everybody benefits if capital is attributed to the hardest working parts of economies wherever in the world.  That is the ideal

I agree with the second poster, the OP is too absolute.   Bitcoin will not be 40 trillion in that way, forget dollars now if you like but dont forget every other currency that also can hold value.   It wont slide over to just one thing, if nothing else think of the previous dollar the old one before the Federal reserve of 1913 when a note was a promise of gold if you wanted it.   That also was a monetary standard and that idea can also rise, its very likely we see adjustment to greater variety not less.  I hope so anyway

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January 20, 2017, 03:26:07 AM
 #32

It's probably more realistic to think of Bitcoin more as a method of payment and store of value than an actual currency. I think it will be used along with fiat similar to how credit cards, PayPal, and western union are used.

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January 20, 2017, 04:12:08 AM
 #33

There's 5 trillion USD worth of hard fiat currency in circulation.

There's 40 trillion USD worth of liquid fiat currency total (currency + checking accounts)

A 40 trillion market cap for bitcoin would mean that BTC = $2,500,000

This 40 trillion represents the whole market that bitcoin is "competing" in against fiat currency (and alt coins), and doesn't take into account BTC's use as a store of value--gold, for example, has a 4 trillion USD value.  So if fiat currency became worthless, that's the bottom for BTC (bottom because it doesn't include potential market cap hikes from the derivatives market and institutional $ investments that are to come)

Fiat currency management is not simple where calculations happen in linear fashion. Though bitcoin may have good future, there is no chance that it will replace or compete against fiat currency. Forget about fiat currency becoming worthless, it not going to happen, period. Current price level of bitcoin is around ~ $800 to ~ $900. It may take a while for bitcoin to reach $250000 level. Who knows what governments have utilized blockchain to turn table in their own favor.
Bitcoin reaching 250,000 is not going to happen soon but even if it happen you could be sure the government will try to impose a special tax of 90% because it will be unfair we obtain such big earnings.

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January 20, 2017, 06:30:37 AM
 #34

Most of the earnings from bitcoin will only be nominal.   That is to say, the value of bitcoin will appreciate much less then the price.    Bitcoin is not a get rich scheme, its not an investment, its not productive all by itself and all it does is transmit value globally quickly cheaply, so its base value is much more flat then say Buffet's shares and his clever industry.
   Here is a famous photo that can bend peoples minds, its not that 100 dollars isnt alot and the car is being sold to settle large debts that will bankrupt him, make him homeless and so 100 is substantial in this photo.  After 1929 when this photo was taken the value of currency dropped gigantically as literally the government confiscated any right to stay outside printed debt notes.   Today we all own promises and debt, we dont own value and definitely not fixed amounts of an asset (some own land but that isnt currency) just paper with writing by politicians



http://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=1&year=1929

So 1929 he was asking for 100 dollars or 5 ounces of gold, that price was the same for those 3 things, gold, notes, car.      If you want 5 ounces now, its $6,000.    
So if we assume that same strange change in price happens to bitcoin, it was 100 dollars per coin when I first started mining so I'll take that and if we assume after the QE programs unwind in a dramatic fashion just like 1929 the system unwound and giant government measures took over, bitcoin should be over 6,000 a coin.    

My projection is to say the nominal price changed and nothing else, just like the 1929 gold at 100 dollars is exactly the same gold as now yet priced 60x higher.   So if you then want to say Bitcoin has grown since I joined this forum and was mining, all this price increase to $800 is value of bitcoin utility. Its all valid value in this price, transactional economy of bitcoin supports 800 not a bubble or brief speculation on failing dollar by Chinese etc.
  Then we must take the 6,000 and increase it eight times over the plain $100  and you have your equivalent post FED QE bubble unwinding, politics messes up like it did the 30's whatever event occurs blame Bernanke or whoever but inflation happens; after the dust settles you have your grand bitcoin price per coin of - $48,000 per coin

Market cap just over 1 trillion if Im able to multiple by 21m correctly, thats a much fairer idea of what if bitcoin took over dollar usage every day at least for some of the broad population

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January 20, 2017, 08:05:44 AM
 #35

Such a calculation could be more meaningful if done for gold (or similar) instead of fiat.
So... how much does all the gold worth?
It may get you with less than 100k/BTC, or even under 10k...

Edit: after a quick Google, if I calculated right, it would still be 500k$/BTC. WOW.

In fact, it wouldn't be any more meaningful

Since less than 20% of gold out of ~200k metric tonnes of gold that was mined through history is potentially tradable. The rest is used in jewelry and electronics as well as stashed away for good. On the other hand, these comparisons are pointless as such since they are based on the current price of Bitcoin and evaluated in the same currency that Bitcoin is priced in (as per OP). A proper way of doing such estimates should be based on the global GDP in physical terms per number of coins in circulation

Right now we compare the price of bitcoins and value it according to USD as our basis. Maybe in the future we would compare gold and USD and other currency to bitcoin and not the other way around like today. People would look to how much bitcoin is my USD worth today like that. That would be the day that I'd love to see.

i see bitcoin and fiat like i see the currency of one country before the euro come in play and the euro itself

so in the future you can simply view bitcoin liek the euro in comparison with old fiat currency that were used in europe, everything if this will ahppen will be price in bitcoin, and you will not need anymore to base it on USD or whatever
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January 20, 2017, 10:06:07 AM
 #36

  Bitcoin need more time to become more heavily traded between most of people. Such as the new currency of any in the world an example of the euro. Also it is need to add more features to be attractive to more people to trading.


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  24th Sept 2017 
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