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Author Topic: SatoshiDice Investor Scam  (Read 1900 times)
cryptoGsus (OP)
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January 19, 2017, 09:20:09 PM
 #1

Background
As you may be aware, a user on SatoshiDice had a BIG win recently.

On January 11, 2017, Underdog01253 (user ID 2789717) placed a bet of 0.25 BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier to walk away with a whopping 303.73 BTC.

This bet was placed on SatoshiSlot which shares the same bankroll as SatoshiDice.


Here's the scam
SatoshiDice claims they employ the Kelly criterion to limit the maximum profit to 1.9% per bet.
Satoshi Dice keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion).

How did they allow this user to win ~14% of the bankroll in a single bet?
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game-protect
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January 19, 2017, 09:25:47 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2017, 03:40:21 PM by game-protect
 #2

You have quoted the maximum for Satoshi Dice and where is the maximum for Satohi Slots stated?

Also, I recommend to make screenshots of everything, terms and conditions, winner, etc.
cryptoGsus (OP)
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January 19, 2017, 09:31:06 PM
 #3

You quoted the maximum for Satoshi Dice and where is the maximum for Satohi Slots stated?

Also, I recommend to make screenshots of everything, terms and conditions, winner, etc.

SatoshiDice and SatoshiSlot are both accessible from satoshidice.com, SatoshiSlot does not have its own website.

The quote I gave is from the "Bet on the house" page where one can invest in the bankroll which is shared between SatoshiDice and SatoshiSlot.

I have made screenshots and can post them if requested. But anyone can see the terms without logging in by going to https://www.satoshidice.com/ and clicking "Bet on the house".
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January 19, 2017, 09:53:42 PM
 #4

I did not question you, but wanted to get clarification, because the contract laws are very precise.

Quote
You have the opportunity to be part of Satoshi Dice's bankroll.
Based on this they can say

Quote
Satoshi Dice keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion).
and they speak about the website satoshidice.com in general and not about Satoshi Dice vs Satoshishi Slot

If they would have stated

Quote
satoshidice.com keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion).

it would have been instantly clear that they mean all offers of the satoshidice.com website. I hope yyou can see the difference?

They obviously breached the legally binding agreement and victims could initiate legal action in Curacao. Curacao has civil and criminal laws based on Roman law, because they were originally a part of The Netherlands in Europe.

A large number of conis also magically disappeared and I already sent to two victims contact details of a lawyer in Curacao. I was instantly accused of selling lawyer services, but I will not see one vcoin of it. I even do not know of they will refer to me if they decide to contact the mentioned lawyer.

Your analysis of the wording raises another interesting point. It's not even clear that an investor is part of the SatoshiSlot bankroll in the first place. However, the loss on this day and a look at the recent big wins makes it undoubtedly clear that the bankroll is shared by both games.

Bet on the House
You have the opportunity to be part of Satoshi Dice's bankroll. The bankroll is the total amount that that players have placed to bet on the house and you are paid according to your percentage of the house's bankroll. Satoshi Dice uses a 1.9% house edge and backers get 50% of the house wins or losses. This means a 0.95% Expected Value (EV) that is shared by the backers. Affiliate earnings, Leader Board rewards and other rewards are not paid by the backers, and there are no additional fees. Minimum amount to bet on the house is 0.001 and there is no upper limit.



I think this site is going down the drain. All the claims of lost balances lately and their unwillingness to ever offer support. Even their cold storage has been depleted lately and only holds about 2/3 of current bankroll (ignoring customer balances that are not in the investment)
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January 19, 2017, 10:02:56 PM
Last edit: February 13, 2017, 07:14:41 AM by game-protect
 #5

Your analysis of the wording raises another interesting point. It's not even clear that an investor is part of the SatoshiSlot bankroll in the first place. However, the loss on this day and a look at the recent big wins makes it undoubtedly clear that the bankroll is shared by both games.

Bet on the House
You have the opportunity to be part of Satoshi Dice's bankroll. The bankroll is the total amount that that players have placed to bet on the house and you are paid according to your percentage of the house's bankroll. Satoshi Dice uses a 1.9% house edge and backers get 50% of the house wins or losses. This means a 0.95% Expected Value (EV) that is shared by the backers. Affiliate earnings, Leader Board rewards and other rewards are not paid by the backers, and there are no additional fees. Minimum amount to bet on the house is 0.001 and there is no upper limit.
Based on their terms and conditions, you invest only in Satoshi Dice. They offer Satoshi Dice and Satoshi Slot, but they speak only about the possibility to invest in Satoshi Dice and not one word about to invest in Satoshi Slot.

How much is the house edge for Satoshi Slot?

I mean they do not expect that anyone will initiate legal action, so they write any kind of not valid or uncomplete nonsense in the terms and conditions.


I think this site is going down the drain. All the claims of lost balances lately and their unwillingness to ever offer support. Even their cold storage has been depleted lately and only holds about 2/3 of current bankroll (ignoring customer balances that are not in the investment)
It does not matter if they have only 2/3 left. Only a few victims will claim and first come first serve.


1) "Welcome to Satoshi Dice - The Original and Best Bitcoin Betting Game"

-> this statement on their website confirms that they speak about the Satoshi Dice game and not about Satoshi Dice as the website operator

2) "Satoshidice.com is operating under the gaming licence 1668/JAZ"

-> this confirms that the website operator is satoshidice.com and not Satoshi Dice




 
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January 20, 2017, 01:44:05 AM
 #6

The edge on the slot game is higher than on the dice, so the Kelly criterion allows higher bets.

The SatoshiSlot has a theoretical payout percentage of 96.5%. This however cannot be determined to the same precision as the dice, as in the slot the RTP/edge is calculated by a simulation, known as the "theoretical payout percentage" or RTP, "return to player".
The max bet on the slot game is not automated as on the dice, it has to be done manually. The slot game has many paylines, it doesn't really work well if the bet sizes on the slot game would be in increments of 14.235, 18.503, 26.322 instead of 10, 15, 25 ect.

There are similar wins with lower bets. Overall, Satoshidice paid out more than the expected value to investors since the start, meaning that the bets actually generated more to investors than the expected outcome.

If the bankroll decreases further or more investors have an opinion about it, we will lower the max bet.

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January 20, 2017, 02:16:57 AM
Last edit: March 01, 2017, 01:18:15 AM by game-protect
 #7

The edge on the slot game is higher than on the dice, so the Kelly criterion allows higher bets.

The SatoshiSlot has a theoretical payout percentage of 96.5%. This however cannot be determined to the same precision as the dice, as in the slot the RTP/edge is calculated by a simulation, known as the "theoretical payout percentage" or RTP, "return to player".
The max bet on the slot game is not automated as on the dice, it has to be done manually. The slot game has many paylines, it doesn't really work well if the bet sizes on the slot game would be in increments of 14.235, 18.503, 26.322 instead of 10, 15, 25 ect.

There are similar wins with lower bets. Overall, Satoshidice paid out more than the expected value to investors since the start, meaning that the bets actually generated more to investors than the expected outcome.

If the bankroll decreases further or more investors have an opinion about it, we will lower the max bet.
Your story about Satoshi Slot has nothing to do with the story stated in your "Bet on the house" terms and conditions:

1) "You have the opportunity to be part of Satoshi Dice's bankroll" -> not one word about to be part of Satoshi Slot's bankroll

2) "Satoshi Dice keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion)."

-> again not one word about Satoshi Slot

3) You: "The SatoshiSlot has a theoretical payout percentage of 96.5%" = 3,5% house edge

Not that it would play any role, but how much is the maximum profit a player can make on a bet on Satoshi Slot?

4) No Satoshi Slot terms and conditions and therefore no idea based on what investors would be part of Satoshi Slot's bankroll?

Please quote the relevant to be part of Satoshi Slot's bankroll terms and conditions?

Btw, how much is the house edge for Dice?
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January 20, 2017, 04:23:39 AM
 #8

Background
As you may be aware, a user on SatoshiDice had a BIG win recently.

On January 11, 2017, Underdog01253 (user ID 2789717) placed a bet of 0.25 BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier to walk away with a whopping 303.73 BTC.

This bet was placed on SatoshiSlot which shares the same bankroll as SatoshiDice.


Here's the scam
SatoshiDice claims they employ the Kelly criterion to limit the maximum profit to 1.9% per bet.
Satoshi Dice keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion).

How did they allow this user to win ~14% of the bankroll in a single bet?

its all a scam to suck more users in
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January 20, 2017, 04:44:00 AM
 #9

Background
As you may be aware, a user on SatoshiDice had a BIG win recently.

On January 11, 2017, Underdog01253 (user ID 2789717) placed a bet of 0.25 BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier to walk away with a whopping 303.73 BTC.

This bet was placed on SatoshiSlot which shares the same bankroll as SatoshiDice.


Here's the scam
SatoshiDice claims they employ the Kelly criterion to limit the maximum profit to 1.9% per bet.
Satoshi Dice keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion).

How did they allow this user to win ~14% of the bankroll in a single bet?

It is very fishy, I doubt the player is hacker or the insider rat in the site, maybe the site owner wants to scam the bankroll, you know no one would place 0.25BTC for spinning a slot, even high rollers won't gamble like this.
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January 20, 2017, 04:45:53 AM
 #10

Thanks for showing me this thread, I will never invest in SatoshiDice.
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January 20, 2017, 05:02:41 AM
 #11

That is really scary if the admin decided to bet on his own site and rip off investor funds, better to invest your money somewhere else.
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January 20, 2017, 02:36:11 PM
 #12

Background
As you may be aware, a user on SatoshiDice had a BIG win recently.

On January 11, 2017, Underdog01253 (user ID 2789717) placed a bet of 0.25 BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier to walk away with a whopping 303.73 BTC.

This bet was placed on SatoshiSlot which shares the same bankroll as SatoshiDice.


Here's the scam
SatoshiDice claims they employ the Kelly criterion to limit the maximum profit to 1.9% per bet.
Satoshi Dice keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion).

How did they allow this user to win ~14% of the bankroll in a single bet?

If the player placed a bet of 0.25BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier well this is not a joke amount of winning. Its a big amount of bitcoin take note not satoshi. I don't know if this is only a way of hyping the people just to seek more player to play in the games. Do you have any proof of this things?
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January 20, 2017, 03:10:40 PM
 #13

Btw, how much is the house edge for Dice?
According to their announcement thread on bitcointalk SatoshiDice's betting conditions are: "Bet options are available with up to 64,000x multiples and a house edge of only 1.9%"
But opening post of that thread wasn't edited for a long time, so the info about house edge might not be accurate anymore.
cryptoGsus (OP)
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January 20, 2017, 03:54:24 PM
 #14

-snip-

Btw, how much is the house edge for Dice?
According to their investment page the edge on dice is 1.9%. This agrees with their payout of x2.00003 when less than 32145 (49.049% chance)

-snip-

If the player placed a bet of 0.25BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier well this is not a joke amount of winning. Its a big amount of bitcoin take note not satoshi. I don't know if this is only a way of hyping the people just to seek more player to play in the games. Do you have any proof of this things?
A player made this bet and won, it is publicly viewable in the "big wins, last 30 days" list. I do not advocate playing or investing at satoshidice. In fact, I advocate the opposite; this site has gone to shit and everyone should cash out immediately.

The edge on the slot game is higher than on the dice, so the Kelly criterion allows higher bets.

The SatoshiSlot has a theoretical payout percentage of 96.5%. This however cannot be determined to the same precision as the dice, as in the slot the RTP/edge is calculated by a simulation, known as the "theoretical payout percentage" or RTP, "return to player".
The max bet on the slot game is not automated as on the dice, it has to be done manually. The slot game has many paylines, it doesn't really work well if the bet sizes on the slot game would be in increments of 14.235, 18.503, 26.322 instead of 10, 15, 25 ect.

There are similar wins with lower bets. Overall, Satoshidice paid out more than the expected value to investors since the start, meaning that the bets actually generated more to investors than the expected outcome.

If the bankroll decreases further or more investors have an opinion about it, we will lower the max bet.
This is bullshit, the game designer can determine the exact RTP because they programmed it; no casino would run a game on which they did not know their exact return. You deceive investors into thinking you are employing a legitimate Kelly criterion strategy but clearly there are no fucks given about your legitimacy. It's about time SatoshiDice went the way of the dodo, you've made Erik a sad man.
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January 21, 2017, 03:42:02 PM
 #15

-snip-

Btw, how much is the house edge for Dice?

According to their investment page the edge on dice is 1.9%. This agrees with their payout of x2.00003 when less than 32145 (49.049% chance)
Thank you for the info.

This confirms that investors do not invest in Satoshi Slot, because the house edge for slot is 3,5% and in the "Bet on the house" terms and conditions is nothing metioned about a 3,5% house edge.

If investors get their account balance reduced because of house losses, is it stated what kind of game (dice or slot) caused this house loss?


Background
As you may be aware, a user on SatoshiDice had a BIG win recently.

On January 11, 2017, Underdog01253 (user ID 2789717) placed a bet of 0.25 BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier to walk away with a whopping 303.73 BTC.

This bet was placed on SatoshiSlot which shares the same bankroll as SatoshiDice.
When I click your link, it shows only the recent rolls for the past minutes. Do you have any other source for his win?

Based on what do Satoshi Slot share the same bankroll as Satoshi Dice?


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January 22, 2017, 07:07:25 PM
 #16

If investors get their account balance reduced because of house losses, is it stated what kind of game (dice or slot) caused this house loss?
No. The only reason I was able to find this out is because the bet showed up on the public big wins table.

When I click your link, it shows only the recent rolls for the past minutes. Do you have any other source for his win?
https://s29.postimg.org/96aku5fev/Big_Win.png
You can see these stats live by going to big wins and clicking last 30 days.

Based on what do Satoshi Slot share the same bankroll as Satoshi Dice?
1) Knowing my investor balance before and after that day.
2) Seeing this win of 303 BTC that correlated to the amount of site bankroll lost.
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January 22, 2017, 08:18:05 PM
 #17

If Satoshidice would prove to run scam or default after an attack, that would be a a massive hit to bitcoin gambling community as the site is considered bitcoin gambling de-facto game.

Right now https://www.satoshidice.com/ returns 504 Gateway Time out error, any news on that?

Let's hope for the best.

~BitWAB Team~
Be the winner!

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January 22, 2017, 08:36:20 PM
Last edit: February 13, 2017, 07:37:38 AM by game-protect
 #18

If investors get their account balance reduced because of house losses, is it stated what kind of game (dice or slot) caused this house loss?
No. The only reason I was able to find this out is because the bet showed up on the public big wins table.

When I click your link, it shows only the recent rolls for the past minutes. Do you have any other source for his win?

You can see these stats live by going to big wins and clicking last 30 days.

Based on what do Satoshi Slot share the same bankroll as Satoshi Dice?
1) Knowing my investor balance before and after that day.
2) Seeing this win of 303 BTC that correlated to the amount of site bankroll lost.
Thank you for the info!

I summed it up here: Satoshidice scam, 500+ Bitcoins defrauded and disappeared! If you have something to add, please leave a reply below the article.

I can inform that take Satoshi Slot losses out of the investor account is 100% sure a scam, as it is nowhere mentioned in the "Bet on the house" terms and conditions that investors are part of Satoshi Slot's bankroll.

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January 23, 2017, 02:34:55 PM
 #19

 Undecided beware guys remember all gambling are same.All gambling games are bot not human playing.
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February 13, 2017, 07:35:29 AM
 #20

Background
As you may be aware, a user on SatoshiDice had a BIG win recently.

On January 11, 2017, Underdog01253 (user ID 2789717) placed a bet of 0.25 BTC and won a x1215.92 multiplier to walk away with a whopping 303.73 BTC.

This bet was placed on SatoshiSlot which shares the same bankroll as SatoshiDice.


Here's the scam
SatoshiDice claims they employ the Kelly criterion to limit the maximum profit to 1.9% per bet.
Satoshi Dice keeps the maximum profit a player can make on a bet to 1.9% of the bankroll (employing the Kelly criterion).

How did they allow this user to win ~14% of the bankroll in a single bet?
"Here's the scam": Your quote about the Kelly criterion to limit the maximum profit to 1.9% per bet is in regards to Satoshi Dice only.

There are no terms and conditions in regards to Satoshi Slots, therefore a slot player can win whatever he likes. Smiley

The criminal offense is to reduce this 303 BTC slot win from investor balances!

Did they meanwhile put the Satoshi Slot loss reduction back to your investor balance?
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