In a Bitcoin Disaster where would you move your Money?

[deisik]

When I say stuff like "loyalty", I am not saying to be fanatical about BTC, or anything like that. I am just simply saying that, people who choose to become economically free, and choose to go the decentralization route, should not back up from it like cowards, when something goes wrong.

If people chose freedom, decentralization and transparency, then how come 10 minutes later they change their minds, and run back to the centralized financial system? That not only makes no sense, but it also portrays Bitcoin as something ridiculous, and childish

I guess you should first explain what makes you think so, i.e. if people are using Bitcoin that necessarily means that they "chose freedom, decentralization and transparency". Traders are there for profits before anything else while being "loyal" to some asset is a dangerous idea in this field, you should be as impartial as possible in respect to what you trade. So your whole concept of "pussy traders" switching to fiat if they think Bitcoin is going down is meaningless. It is nothing more than risk valuation, it may be correct or it may be wrong but it has nothing to do with "loyalty" or "love"

In short, stop producing noise

Well they could be long term investors, because buy & hold does eliminate some trading risk and replace it with volatility right?

I don't quite understand what you mean. There are early adopters who at some point had thousands of bitcoins, and they are likely the only ones whom you could consider as being truly "loyal" to Bitcoin (it the sense you mean it, i.e. "freedom, decentralization and transparency"). I mean those who still hold their stashes and didn't waste them. These don't feel like going to part with their bitcoins any time soon. They won't sell at any price, no matter how low it could plunge and how high it could climb. On the other hand, the investors you are talking about are there for profits as much as any trader out there

If they didn't expect to earn some income in the future and knew in advance that Bitcoin would fail, they obviously wouldn't invest

I mean if the price swings +-200% every half year or so, that is hard to trade successfully in my opinion. I have seen a lot of guys end up being losing after trading BTC/USD

There can't possibly be price swings -200% any moment. Bitcoin could hit the floor at 0 and that would be 100% collapse. If Bitcoin rises 100%, going down to the same price would be 50% decline

So even though buying and holding introduces drawdown (which if it's not leveraged, then it's not as risky) , it does make investment easier, if they think the price will go up in the longterm.

Just daytraders and technical analysts are probably losing money already. To them this is more like gambling. So that is sad.

Trust me, volatility is the best friend of a genuine short-term trader. And this is not gambling. In fact, it is easy money (you may want to read more about using long straddles in options, to better understand the idea)

[The_Dark_Knight]

Are you familiar with the compatibility issues in windows where a software which worked in old versions have problem to execute in new versions?
Welp, bitcoin is the solution found by Satoshi when people tried to troubleshoot financial system.
Bitcoin itself is a tool that only runs if there is no flaw in it, I'm really having problem how to explain my self here,...hmm Do you know what is gravity?
Mass creates gravity and without mass there is no gravity, now imagine bitcoin is both at the same time, what I mean if bitcoin wasn't suppose to work from inception until the end of time it wouldn't be working right now.

I will put it as simple as it gets, what happens if all the oceans vaporize and completely dry out? well we could dig wells and use under ground water reserves for a few month top but they will diminish eventually.

In mathematics if you can multiply 2x2=4(altcoins)2+2=4(altcoins/fiat), but 1111 is what bitcoin is giving us so we can decide what to do and how to do it.

Bitcoin was very efficiently implemented since the beginning but there are risk in the horizon, for example one of the risks are quantum computers, they are not a risk now, but they will be a risk on two or three decades, so we are not sure if bitcoin is going to work to the end of time as you seem to suggest.

[digaran]

Are you familiar with the compatibility issues in windows where a software which worked in old versions have problem to execute in new versions?
Welp, bitcoin is the solution found by Satoshi when people tried to troubleshoot financial system.
Bitcoin itself is a tool that only runs if there is no flaw in it, I'm really having problem how to explain my self here,...hmm Do you know what is gravity?
Mass creates gravity and without mass there is no gravity, now imagine bitcoin is both at the same time, what I mean if bitcoin wasn't suppose to work from inception until the end of time it wouldn't be working right now.

I will put it as simple as it gets, what happens if all the oceans vaporize and completely dry out? well we could dig wells and use under ground water reserves for a few month top but they will diminish eventually.

In mathematics if you can multiply 2x2=4(altcoins)2+2=4(altcoins/fiat), but 1111 is what bitcoin is giving us so we can decide what to do and how to do it.

Bitcoin was very efficiently implemented since the beginning but there are risk in the horizon, for example one of the risks are quantum computers, they are not a risk now, but they will be a risk on two or three decades, so we are not sure if bitcoin is going to work to the end of time as you seem to suggest.

I'm not suggesting anything regarding the current state of bitcoin but pointing out what bitcoin really is and the idea which Satoshi had in mind about btc. oh man this system is simple and easy to access enough that people can spam bomb it and the protocol accepts anything from the network until the honest nodes confirm and verify their validity. chain or circle the never ending consistency the idea is what I'm defending not a run away girl of a currency that has been misbehaved, misused and essentially gang raped by the same greed mongering savages trying to rule the world with their non existent paper money.

If a flood comes and wipes out humanity once again, for the new world starting over bitcoin is the answer to be the value delivery agent, not this 21M capped btc though .

You talk about Quantum computing like you understand the quantum world, it works as if there are 10 boxes and only 1 cat inside one of them, now quantum computer practically could open and look inside all 10 boxes at the same time and with only the energy of that opening one box is needed.

Who says if someone is able to do that isn't able to constantly create 10 other boxes and hides the cat in one of them non stop?

[RealBitcoin]

If they didn't expect to earn some income in the future and knew in advance that Bitcoin would fail, they obviously wouldn't invest

They would, but maybe not looking for 1 week profits, but instead hold 5-10 years. Some people have BTC in their retirement account. These are the dedicated people.

The others might as well just be cowboys who are looking for a quick buck, but I dont like those people.

There can't possibly be price swings -200% any moment. Bitcoin could hit the floor at 0 and that would be 100% collapse. If Bitcoin rises 100%, going down to the same price would be 50% decline

Yes sure I meant in the absolute sense, so for example a log return.

If price is now 900$ then 200% up is 1800$ , and 200% down is 450$, which would be equivalent to -50%

Ln (200%) =0.693147180559945
Ln (50%) = -0.693147180559945

Trust me, volatility is the best friend of a genuine short-term trader. And this is not gambling. In fact, it is easy money (you may want to read more about using long straddles in options, to better understand the idea)

Yes but somehow traders still end up losing money. It looks to me like a zero sum game, becasue of the eficient market hypothesis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis

[Fireblade]

I will exchange bitcoin currency to USD. I will move quickly before the disaster. when there is a decrease above 25% then I will immediately sell the entire bitcoin I have.

i think we should change our mind set about this. if all the bitcoins users decided that they will never let bitcoin destroy i do not think we will every see such situation. actually it depend on our decision when the bitcoin price start declining people worried about it a and start panic selling, if they become farm and remain and hold their bitcoin then we can hope that we will never see a serious decline to the price of bitcoin.

[KenR]

I am curious that in the hypothetical scenario of Bitcoin splitting into 2 (which is less and less hypothetical), or other big disasters (51% attack, quantum hackers,etc), where would you move your money? Bitcoin is currently the reserve currency, and it's safe to store in it some money, but if some disaster happens, then it will no longer be safe, so I am curious where people would go, what would be the alternative to BTC?

The only and the most realistic scene I can think of is Government banning bitcoins completely.Where would one take their bitcoins in such case ? Nowhere to run!
In the scenario that you have mentioned,I might just liquidate the coins,wait for a month and decide which stable alt to choose next.

[RealBitcoin]

I am curious that in the hypothetical scenario of Bitcoin splitting into 2 (which is less and less hypothetical), or other big disasters (51% attack, quantum hackers,etc), where would you move your money? Bitcoin is currently the reserve currency, and it's safe to store in it some money, but if some disaster happens, then it will no longer be safe, so I am curious where people would go, what would be the alternative to BTC?

The only and the most realistic scene I can think of is Government banning bitcoins completely.Where would one take their bitcoins in such case ? Nowhere to run!
In the scenario that you have mentioned,I might just liquidate the coins,wait for a month and decide which stable alt to choose next.

Strangely though nobody has chosed DASH, which is probably the most stable altcoin out there, and one possible replacement for BTC.

I had a decentralized voting system , more flexible, and more scaleable. The privacy system and the supernode system is questionable, but still it's a good possible backup.

Since LTC is crap, and DOGE and other are not even taken seriously.

[2double0]

I think that the best option will definitely be converting bitcoins to another altcoin which rises against it, because something arose against such an established currency would definitely be consisting something special that investors and others might be trusting it based on. However, I know that any such Bitcoin disaster is never going to happen.

[Text]

I think that the best option will definitely be converting bitcoins to another altcoin which rises against it, because something arose against such an established currency would definitely be consisting something special that investors and others might be trusting it based on. However, I know that any such Bitcoin disaster is never going to happen.

I'm gladly to invest in altcoins, coins which are closest to bitcoin. I will not close my doors for another opportunities to grab on, using crypto-currency is so beneficial compare to fiat money. I find it more easy than applying for a real job but of course I need to make a lot of effort and hard works.

[error08]

Depends on what disaster?  If bitcoin could stand even some crash happen, I will cash out to fiat and buy back at the lower price.
The poll shows people still prefer to fiat as it is an official currency to buy anything including bitcoin.
Divide my investment to some store of value such as bitcoin, gold, fiat money as backup plan if one of them going to crash.

[deisik]

Trust me, volatility is the best friend of a genuine short-term trader. And this is not gambling. In fact, it is easy money (you may want to read more about using long straddles in options, to better understand the idea)

Yes but somehow traders still end up losing money. It looks to me like a zero sum game, becasue of the eficient market hypothesis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis

If markets were truly efficient, there simply couldn't possibly be 1-2% of total winners (insiders and their kind), 3-7% of occasional winners (those highly experienced traders), and the rest being left for dead holding the ragged bag without handles. A market don't need to be efficient to remain a zero sum game. A zero sum game in simple words is a market where someone's losses are always someone else's profits. All financial markets which trade purely virtual assets (like Bitcoin mostly) are a zero sum game by definition...

A non-zero sum game market is the market where a traded asset can be and is in fact widely used outside the market itself (e.g. oil market)

[meemiinii]

we all know that bitcoin act as the mother of all cryptocurrencies as well as the sprouting altcoins. All cryptocurrencies revolved their worlds around  bitcoin. so if such disaster happens and bitcoin will fall off, then what do you think will happen? surely all will fall hard too.  imagine a tree without water? do you think it will still live? definitely a no, no.

so definitely i would prefer cashing out all of my coins to fiat. Fiat is the only stable one can choose to. then if in time bitcoin will go back to its feet, then thats probably the only time i will buy and invest in bitcoin again.  Lets just all hope that bitcoin will never get into this.

[Gromozeka!]

As life must go on then I will be back to fiat and have a normal life. Because with bitcoin, my life became on a fast pace already because of daily trading but the returns are very worth to see. But I don't think that there is going to be a disaster with bitcoin for this generation but maybe for the next 10-20 years it's either there is or none.

If a disaster happen in 20 years there will be by the time fiat money may already ubiquitous digital currency is a national and a lot to lose faith in cryptocurrency will go to the national currency, or to the most stable as the dollar is now for example.

[Flanagan]

Fiat, Gold. NEVER to any other altcoins, period.

[deisik]

we all know that bitcoin act as the mother of all cryptocurrencies as well as the sprouting altcoins. All cryptocurrencies revolved their worlds around  bitcoin. so if such disaster happens and bitcoin will fall off, then what do you think will happen? surely all will fall hard too.  imagine a tree without water? do you think it will still live? definitely a no, no

That's bullshit, without beating too much about the bush

If the tree dies, do all its offshoots die too? I guess this is hardly the case. Bitcoin may have given rise to cryptocurrencies being a forefather of them all, but that doesn't mean that they are still depending on it. As I said it before, the demise of Bitcoin, should it happen, may actually free space just like an old tree gives away resources it has accumulated through its long life when it finally dies off



Life is not recyclable, you are born to die

[RealBitcoin]

If markets were truly efficient, there simply couldn't possibly be 1-2% of total winners (insiders and their kind), 3-7% of occasional winners (those highly experienced traders), and the rest being left for dead holding the ragged bag without handles. A market don't need to be efficient to remain a zero sum game. A zero sum game in simple words is a market where someone's losses are always someone else's profits. All financial markets which trade purely virtual assets (like Bitcoin mostly) are a zero sum game by definition...

A non-zero sum game market is the market where a traded asset can be and is in fact widely used outside the market itself (e.g. oil market)

The oil market is zero sum too, because you cant make money from trading it.

No , you dont know what zero sum is. An efficient market means a market where you cant make money on long term, because all  public information is priced in (insiders are insiders).

Which means that it's a casino. YOu go to an exchange to trade, and pay a trading fee. How is that different than a casino with house edge?

The only way to make consistent money is to have insider knowledge, or manipulate the price, which is considered immoral.

[deisik]

If markets were truly efficient, there simply couldn't possibly be 1-2% of total winners (insiders and their kind), 3-7% of occasional winners (those highly experienced traders), and the rest being left for dead holding the ragged bag without handles. A market don't need to be efficient to remain a zero sum game. A zero sum game in simple words is a market where someone's losses are always someone else's profits. All financial markets which trade purely virtual assets (like Bitcoin mostly) are a zero sum game by definition...

A non-zero sum game market is the market where a traded asset can be and is in fact widely used outside the market itself (e.g. oil market)

The oil market is zero sum too, because you cant make money from trading it.

No , you dont know what zero sum is. An efficient market means a market where you cant make money on long term, because all  public information is priced in (insiders are insiders).

Which means that it's a casino. YOu go to an exchange to trade, and pay a trading fee. How is that different than a casino with house edge?

The only way to make consistent money is to have insider knowledge, or manipulate the price, which is considered immoral.

What did you not understand in my post about what a zero-sum game is?

If you come to disagree with that, bring forth your arguments. So far you only claim that I don't know what it is and then continue to explain what is an efficient market (how it is written in Wiki). Obviously, this won't do. And while you are trying to look for a flaw in my definition (there's none), don't forget to explain what efficient market has to do at all with a zero-sum game market. Just in case, an oil market is not a zero sum game (since oil is a consumable commodity), and by claiming to the contrary, you pretty much reveal that you don't in fact understand the essence of a zero-sum game

[Bitcoinsummoner]

I think better to move it in fiat or money because i think most the altcoin will be also affected if there are disaster happen with bitcoin..
And i  think it is impossible that bitcoin will gone or down in the future since many people are supporting bitcoin. We are just seen the price was reduced that can turn to panic sell if they heard any news aout bitcoin like few weeks ago when the price was crash from $1100.

[RealBitcoin]

What did you not understand in my post about what a zero-sum game is?

If you come to disagree with that, bring forth your arguments. So far you only claim that I don't know what it is and then continue to explain what is an efficient market (how it is written in Wiki). Obviously, this won't do. And while you are trying to look for a flaw in my definition (there's none), don't forget to explain what efficient market has to do at all with a zero-sum game market. Just in case, an oil market is not a zero sum game (since oil is a consumable commodity), and by claiming to the contrary, you pretty much reveal that you don't in fact understand the essence of a zero-sum game

You are such a smartass, but you dont know what you are talking about.

If you refer to the oil as being consumable well then the same way bitcoin is also a consumable, because a lot of coins get burned.


But zero sum has nothing to do with the quality of the asset. It only means that the market is efficient, and that people only shuffle money around to one another, and nothing is produced.

Oil doesnt create anything by itself, nor does bitcoin. Sure they can be used to create things, but that is not an inherent property.

A human life is not a zero sum game, because a human creates more than it consumes, otherwise he would die.

But financial market, are just a giant casino, where the money goes from 1 player to the other. It's the human that is creating the innovation, not the currency.

[royalfestus]

I was thinking  of what kind of disaster that could really happen to bitcoin. Do you think If any disaster happen today, any of the altcoins wont be troubled, they will lose the trust of customers, media will also attack them and government might call it a crime being involved in it. They might gradually go into extinction. In such a case you need your money back with you, then watch the response of the market.