Bitcoin Forum
February 28, 2020, 12:31:42 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.19.0.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Confused?? Wake up!! Decide who you are...not bull/bear, BUT...  (Read 1861 times)
bitrider
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 233
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:12:29 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2013, 02:16:34 AM by bitrider
 #1

IMHO There is a lot of noise on this board that is not helpful. And is encouraging bad decisions during these exciting times.
I'd like to be helpful. Maybe this will be for one of you...FWIW...

To play this game successfully, you must decide what game you are playing...and then deicide to get good at that game...
Are you a short-term trader or a long-term investor? Both?

Don't know? That is a big problem that will hurt your success with bitcoin - or any speculation for that matter.

Much of the confusion and ridiculous personal arguments I see on this board (despite my post numbers, I've been reading this forum hours daily for over nine months) comes because members are confusing short term trading (days/weeks) with long-term investing (months/years). They are different games, have different time frames and different rules. Get clear on what you are doing and you are more likely to come out ahead. And get what you are looking for from bitcoin.

You must decide who you are in this market, and be honest to yourself about it. IMHO arguing about who is a bull and who is a bear and who is “best for bitcoin’s future” is total useless bs - and completely irrelevant unless you understand what that person is trying to do – what their goals are.

So for example...

I am primarily a long-term investor in bitcoin. After the first NYC conference in 2011 (organized by that weirdo Bruce Wagner), I saw the future that bitcoin represented, and I decided based on fundamentals to invest what I could (only what I could afford to completely lose!!) for the long term. And I used chart technical analysis to decide when was a good time to buy (low, stable and rising). Basically that means that as long as the fundamentals I saw remain intact or get stronger, I will hold and buy bitcoins because I believe in them as an investment and a tremendous business opportunity – at the least. I really don’t care if the coin is at $50 or $150 (slight exaggeration  Wink )right now as long as the long-term picture stays bright – technically and fundamentally. Of course that does not mean I will not take profits from time to time, or sell some when I believe they are temporarily overvalued. But overall my thinking about bitcoins is based on fundamentals, business potential and multi-year technical time frames. And that's how I make my decisions. ....(btw in my opinion, bitcoin has gotten much stronger fundamentally - and is doing that consistently)

OTOH Short-term traders - whether fundamental or technical - are obviously thinking much shorter term, are interested in news cycles, support levels, exchange volume, new money, etc. Traders are trying to extract as much short-term profit as they can from the volatility and fluctuations of the market. This is a big generalization, but traders really don't (and should not) care about the long-term potential of bitcoin. That is not what is driving the day to day prices of the coin and will only confuse their thinking and get in the way of wise trading decisions. Bots are the extreme example of technical "trading" which has no connection at all to the long-term prospects of bitcoin. They don't care, and are not "invested" in anything but profit - like all best traders. Nothing wrong with this - but it is a completely different - and mostly incompatible way of thinking and making decisions.

Of course I do a little short term trading with my coin because it is good for a dopamine hit on a regular basis, but I know that am I am primarily a long-term investor, and therefore use investor data, time-frames and thinking to make my bitcoin purchase decisions with the bulk of my holdings. And (when I remember this  Wink keep things clear and hopefully I make good decisions for me and my family.

So….Keep your thinking clear.

If you are a long-term investor- as I believe many of the folks on this forum are- and you are regularly looking at 15 minute charts, and worrying about how long the verification line is at Gox, you are confused and will make bad long-term decisions.

If you are a short-term trader, and you are worried about scalability challenges for the blockchain, how the Fed will deal with currency competition, or whether the Winklevii are "good for bitcoin" you are confused. Further, if you are a short-term trader, and have not studied trading for at least a couple of years, you are confused. If you don’t have a written, specific trading plan, you are most likely confused and will lose. Seriously. I know you are smarter than everyone else, but that is what the stats tell us.

To be honest. I realize I'm writing this as much for my own clarity as to share with you what I have learned. I have definitely not mastered this completely in my own investing. And I got very caught up in the recent hysteria - making some great profits and some very questionable decisions based on greed and fear in the heat of battle. But it was not really bad, ultimately because bottom line I know what I am trying to accomplish.

Hope this was helpful. I love bitcoin, and am so grateful to be on this ride with you guys..

Best of luck in your trading/investing!


Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1582893102
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1582893102

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1582893102
Reply with quote  #2

1582893102
Report to moderator
1582893102
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1582893102

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1582893102
Reply with quote  #2

1582893102
Report to moderator
HappyBitCoinUser
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 182
Merit: 100



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:15:48 AM
 #2

Maged
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1204
Merit: 1006


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:21:02 AM
 #3

Much of the confusion and ridiculous personal arguments I see on this board comes because members are confusing short term trading (days/weeks) with long-term investing (months/years).
I couldn't agree more.

superside
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 84
Merit: 10


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:22:41 AM
 #4

I'm just a squirrel
bitcoiners
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322
Merit: 250



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:31:49 AM
 #5

I'm neither.  I don't buy on emotion.  Money can be made in a "bear" or "bull" market.  Read the charts and learn something.  The charts are still saying this isn't over yet.

Oh that's right, "BTC can't be compared with charts." As I've heard so many times here. LOLLOLOLOLOLOOL.  People really will fall for anything.
Wuji
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 0


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:41:24 AM
 #6

If you wish to call putting your money in a beta virtual currency with lots of risks and unknowns based on speculation "long term investing" than that is your choice.  This is the same virtual currency that recently moved from $50-$266 in a couple weeks and then went from $266-$105 in one day.  Trust me I don't need preaching to as I bought some Bitcoin today at $71 because ultimately I do love the technology and I use it for purchasing.

I've held a large portfolio of stocks for over 20 years that pay dividends and have made money hand over fists.  My grandfather had millions of dollars from simply buying Exxon stock for 40 years with a little piece of his paycheck each month. That is my definition of long term investing.  I guess we all have our own ideas and theories on things.  The key is I hope you are all diversified heavily.  I knew guys working at Enron and I refused to buy the stock because I never did understand the fundamentals.  I tend to read the balance sheets and like to understand investments inside and out.  They all thought it was the most wonderful thing since sliced bread and woke up broke one day.

I just wanted to point out that all that money you are investing in Bitcoin is not a low risk and you and everyone your advising should be ok with something bad happening and losing ALL of your money.  I'm comfortable with that because I'm highly diversified and will retire very comfortably without Bitcoin.  Make sure you don't have all your eggs in one basket or don't cry when your hungry and then act like you didn't know better.
jbord39
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 41
Merit: 0


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:53:37 AM
 #7

I just wanted to point out that a lot of the new posters on this forum (myself obviously included) are LONG TERM INVESTORS.  I know that I plan on holding BTC's for a while.  However getting in when I did (480 in at 160/BTC) and then watching it continue to drop to 55 and semi stabilize around 110 while continuing to drop (now) is quite disheartening. 

I did not want a get-rich-quick scheme.  I wanted to use BTC to buy items and thought of it as a good long term investment.  However, the volatility being experienced is forcing me to think more short term (which I literally have 0 experience doing).  I have no background in this -- I am an engineer.  I trust in the framework but at the same time would like to maximize my investment to a reasonable level. 

It just seems like the lines between a long term investor and short term are not so different right now.
bitcoiners
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322
Merit: 250



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 01:59:48 AM
 #8

It just seems like the lines between a long term investor and short term are not so different right now.

I don't see that.  Someone wanting to buy black tar heroin right now is going to buy and spend, right now.  Someone wanting to buy silver right now, will buy and spend right now.  Someone wanting to use BTC as a store of wealth will do so.  Some people want to buy and trade in the short term as they are doing right now.  I don't see how this is any different than any other market that exists in the world.

We are watching the precious metals go through the same thing right now.  How are we different?
bitrider
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 233
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:02:38 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2013, 02:31:10 AM by bitrider
 #9


I just wanted to point out that all that money you are investing in Bitcoin is not a low risk and you and everyone your advising should be ok with something bad happening and losing ALL of your money.  I'm comfortable with that because I'm highly diversified and will retire very comfortably without Bitcoin.  Make sure you don't have all your eggs in one basket or don't cry when your hungry and then act like you didn't know better.

Wow. Thanks for saying that Wuji! That was not my intention at all to suggest that I was holding only bitcoins as my long-term investment. I am personally well diversified and have only put into bitcoin what I could at the time afford to lose. I have edited the post to make that clear. Bitcoin is a very high risk speculative investment, and I treat it as such.

And BTW -- Very glad to hear that you are set up well for retirement. That is a good thing anyway you look at it.
bitrider
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 233
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:05:55 AM
 #10

Read the charts and learn something.  The charts are still saying this isn't over yet.

Oh that's right, "BTC can't be compared with charts." As I've heard so many times here. LOLLOLOLOLOLOOL.  People really will fall for anything.

Not sure exactly what you are suggesting. But I actually agree with you about both charts utility and "that this thing is not over yet."
bitcoiners
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322
Merit: 250



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:13:05 AM
 #11

Read the charts and learn something.  The charts are still saying this isn't over yet.

Oh that's right, "BTC can't be compared with charts." As I've heard so many times here. LOLLOLOLOLOLOOL.  People really will fall for anything.

Not sure exactly what you are suggesting. But I actually agree with you about both charts utility and "that this thing is not over yet."

Oh, that was not directed at your op.  I was just saying in general to other people with their heads in the sand.  Sorry for not making that clear.

Cheers and good post.
knight22
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000


--------------->¿?


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:13:13 AM
 #12

OP this is the way I think

ManBearPig
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 350
Merit: 250


"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"


View Profile WWW
April 16, 2013, 02:26:30 AM
 #13

Nice post. Pleasant change Smiley

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
bitrider
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 233
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:26:52 AM
 #14


Oh, that was not directed at your op.  I was just saying in general to other people with their heads in the sand.  Sorry for not making that clear.

Cheers and good post.

Got it. Thanks
jbord39
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 41
Merit: 0


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:30:11 AM
 #15

It just seems like the lines between a long term investor and short term are not so different right now.

I don't see that.  Someone wanting to buy black tar heroin right now is going to buy and spend, right now.  Someone wanting to buy silver right now, will buy and spend right now.  Someone wanting to use BTC as a store of wealth will do so.  Some people want to buy and trade in the short term as they are doing right now.  I don't see how this is any different than any other market that exists in the world.

We are watching the precious metals go through the same thing right now.  How are we different?

Because BTC's are so much more volatile than gold.  Gold price change of 10% in one day is HUGE.  BTC price change of 10% in one day is normal.  This makes your entry point with BTC so much more critical that even for a long term investor you need to think of the short term.  
Mike Christ
aka snapsunny
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078
Merit: 1003



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:30:29 AM
 #16

Can I be a sloth?

bitrider
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 233
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:33:06 AM
 #17

Can I be a sloth?

You have my permission, if you want it  Wink
bitcoiners
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322
Merit: 250



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:37:07 AM
 #18

It just seems like the lines between a long term investor and short term are not so different right now.

I don't see that.  Someone wanting to buy black tar heroin right now is going to buy and spend, right now.  Someone wanting to buy silver right now, will buy and spend right now.  Someone wanting to use BTC as a store of wealth will do so.  Some people want to buy and trade in the short term as they are doing right now.  I don't see how this is any different than any other market that exists in the world.

We are watching the precious metals go through the same thing right now.  How are we different?

Because BTC's are so much more volatile than gold.  Gold price change of 10% in one day is HUGE.  BTC price change of 10% in one day is normal.  This makes your entry point with BTC so much more critical that even for a long term investor you need to think of the short term.  

Because...

It takes awhile to offload physical gold.  Takes only moments to move BTC into something else.  Relatively speaking.

When someone dumps 150 tons of physical gold it takes coordination, timing, and money.  Not so with BTC.  That's the main difference.
bobdude17
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 454
Merit: 250



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:39:34 AM
 #19

I get you man. Smiley


Fantastic post, keep up the good work homie.


Happy to be on this ride with you.
Mike Christ
aka snapsunny
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078
Merit: 1003



View Profile
April 16, 2013, 02:46:33 AM
 #20

Can I be a sloth?

You have my permission, if you want it  Wink

Hooray Grin  Too lazy to buy, too lazy to sell.

...ahh fuck it.

Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!