IMHO There is a lot of noise on this board that is not helpful. And is encouraging bad decisions during these exciting times.
I'd like to be helpful. Maybe this will be for one of you...FWIW...
To play this game successfully, you must decide what game you are playing...and then deicide to get good at that game...
Are you a short-term trader or a long-term investor? Both?
Don't know? That is a big problem that will hurt your success with bitcoin - or any speculation for that matter.
Much of the confusion and ridiculous personal arguments I see on this board (despite my post numbers, I've been reading this forum hours daily for over nine months) comes because members are confusing short term trading (days/weeks) with long-term investing (months/years). They are different games, have different time frames and different rules. Get clear on what you are doing and you are more likely to come out ahead. And get what you are looking for from bitcoin.
You must decide who you are in this market, and be honest to yourself about it. IMHO arguing about who is a bull and who is a bear and who is “best for bitcoin’s future” is total useless bs - and completely irrelevant unless you understand what that person is trying to do – what their goals are.
So for example...
I am primarily a long-term investor in bitcoin. After the first NYC conference in 2011 (organized by that weirdo Bruce Wagner), I saw the future that bitcoin represented, and I decided based on fundamentals to invest what I could (
only what I could afford to completely lose!!) for the long term. And I used chart technical analysis to decide when was a good time to buy (low, stable and rising). Basically that means that as long as the fundamentals I saw remain intact or get stronger, I will hold and buy bitcoins because I believe in them as an investment and a tremendous business opportunity – at the least. I really don’t care if the coin is at $50 or $150 (slight exaggeration
)right now as long as the long-term picture stays bright – technically and fundamentally. Of course that does not mean I will not take profits from time to time, or sell some when I believe they are temporarily overvalued. But overall my thinking about bitcoins is based on fundamentals, business potential and multi-year technical time frames. And that's how I make my decisions. ....(btw in my opinion, bitcoin has gotten much stronger fundamentally - and is doing that consistently)
OTOH Short-term traders - whether fundamental or technical - are obviously thinking much shorter term, are interested in news cycles, support levels, exchange volume, new money, etc. Traders are trying to extract as much short-term profit as they can from the volatility and fluctuations of the market. This is a big generalization, but traders really don't (and should not) care about the long-term potential of bitcoin. That is not what is driving the day to day prices of the coin and will only confuse their thinking and get in the way of wise trading decisions. Bots are the extreme example of technical "trading" which has no connection at all to the long-term prospects of bitcoin. They don't care, and are not "invested" in anything but profit - like all best traders. Nothing wrong with this - but it is a completely different - and mostly incompatible way of thinking and making decisions.
Of course I do a little short term trading with my coin because it is good for a dopamine hit on a regular basis, but I know that am I am primarily a long-term investor, and therefore use investor data, time-frames and thinking to make my bitcoin purchase decisions with the bulk of my holdings. And (when I remember this
keep things clear and hopefully I make good decisions for me and my family.
So….
Keep your thinking clear. If you are a long-term investor- as I believe many of the folks on this forum are- and you are regularly looking at 15 minute charts, and worrying about how long the verification line is at Gox, you are confused and will make bad long-term decisions.
If you are a short-term trader, and you are worried about scalability challenges for the blockchain, how the Fed will deal with currency competition, or whether the Winklevii are "good for bitcoin" you are confused. Further, if you are a short-term trader, and have not studied trading for at least a couple of years, you are confused. If you don’t have a written, specific trading plan, you are most likely confused and will lose. Seriously. I know you are smarter than everyone else, but that is what the stats tell us.
To be honest. I realize I'm writing this as much for my own clarity as to share with you what I have learned. I have definitely not mastered this completely in my own investing. And I got very caught up in the recent hysteria - making some great profits and some very questionable decisions based on greed and fear in the heat of battle. But it was not really bad, ultimately because bottom line I know what I am trying to accomplish.
Hope this was helpful. I love bitcoin, and am so grateful to be on this ride with you guys..
Best of luck in your trading/investing!
