What are the odds of Winklesoss ETF passing? [POLL]

[hector3115]

That one Winklevoss lawyer that worked on getting it approved cited the number one reason why it wouldn't get approved was due to 95% of the trading volume taking place in China.  

However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.

Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.

http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/

I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing.  Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)

Nevermind what I said.  With what China has done with the exchanges this morning, the ETF is screwed!  Price is too easily manipulated by communist China.

[Biodom]

My take:ill-conceived China shoots itself in the foot.
They had highest volume, now they will become irrelevant.
China trading will go from 30-40% (which it became after removing free trades) to 10%, then to 1-5%
Nobody will give them a second thought as far as bitcoin trading is concerned.

Western trading WILL take over, making ETF much more likely to happen in eventuality.

[Torque]

Well with this recent bullish news, not only do I think the COIN ETF will be approved.

Look for China-based Bitcoin ETFs to start popping up this year as well. 

[LLec]

I can not see it happening if bitcoin keeps on this downward trend and if it reaches below what it was from before last year's end then it won't get passed.
That is for certain.

[gentlemand]

I can not see it happening if bitcoin keeps on this downward trend and if it reaches below what it was from before last year's end then it won't get passed.
That is for certain.

What does price have to do with anything? There are tons of ETFs that have lost shit tons of money. What they care about is safety and viability. The price is someone else's problem.

[richardsNY]

One thing is sure, they have had enough time to work things out. If it still doesn't get approved, then something is fundamentally wrong. Not that it would change much for me if it doesn't get approved, but I think it will disappoint quite some people as this (once approved) may turn out to be an entry point for high level investors that are waiting on the side lines right now.

[cpfreeplz]

I say no. It's been tried and it still hasn't happened. Personally I think it's the opposite of what bitcoins really need BUT at the same time it will open up the market to normal people who don't want the bitcoin education needed to hold them but would still like to take advantage of the price increases.

[Grdas130979]

I also believe no, i dont get a positive vibe about this, too many questions about this havent still been answered, i think its too early, volatility and KYC matters hurt BTC for now. I strongly believe that its a matter of time for ETF but not now

[w00t]

I think it's not going to happen (as much as I would like that it did); unless of course that somebody lobbied heavily and will profit from it. The Bitmex 30 % sounds about right so my 'NO' was within this expectation.

[Searing]

On a side note you can bet on the outcome of this happening......see link below

I still give the odds at best of 1 out of 4.....but hey, would be nice to be wrong

http://www.coindesk.com/can-now-bet-bitcoin-whether-winklevoss-etf-will-go-live/

[ProfessionalGoogler]

On a side note you can bet on the outcome of this happening......see link below

I still give the odds at best of 1 out of 4.....but hey, would be nice to be wrong

http://www.coindesk.com/can-now-bet-bitcoin-whether-winklevoss-etf-will-go-live/

I believe you will be wrong.

[gentlemand]

On a side note you can bet on the outcome of this happening......see link below

Interesting. It would be a better punt if that  bet didn't single out the Winklevoss ETF. In some ways the SolidX one looks like a hotter prospect.

[dhampir-D]

I think there are chances of this occurring, but there is a possibility that the process may be delayed, as this usually happens when there are many bureaucratic procedures involved. I would particularly like to see this happen, since it is something with potential to attract high profile investors into the Bitcoin market.

[gentlemand]

I think there are chances of this occurring, but there is a possibility that the process may be delayed.

This upcoming deadline is the final one. There can't be any more delays. It's either a yes or a no by then. That's why people are getting ever hotter under the collar.

[dhampir-D]

I think there are chances of this occurring, but there is a possibility that the process may be delayed.

This upcoming deadline is the final one. There can't be any more delays. It's either a yes or a no by then. That's why people are getting ever hotter under the collar.

I did not know about it, this gives about a month ahead... it makes sense the fact that a lot of people are worried. It's unfortunate that this has gotten to that point. Thanks for the information.

[alyssa85]

That one Winklevoss lawyer that worked on getting it approved cited the number one reason why it wouldn't get approved was due to 95% of the trading volume taking place in China.  

However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.

Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.

http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/

I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing.  Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)

Nevermind what I said.  With what China has done with the exchanges this morning, the ETF is screwed!  Price is too easily manipulated by communist China.

Or maybe them enforcing KYC requirements will reassure the SEC. One exchange BTCC seems to be fine, the other two should start allowing withdrawals BEFORE the SEC decision.

Of course if withdrawals are still not allowed on March 11th, then I agree, the ETF might not go ahead. 

[d5000]

Until today I was more close to "No", but now I vote for "yes". It's because of this strange price recoveries that happen every time we see a dump (since January). In earlier bubbles the price got much lower after a dump and I never saw it recover that fast.

The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.

[Searing]

Until today I was more close to "No", but now I vote for "yes". It's because of this strange price recoveries that happen every time we see a dump (since January). In earlier bubbles the price got much lower after a dump and I never saw it recover that fast.

The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.

China is 'enforcing' every time BTC goes over $1,000.00, they seem to 'intervene' .....hmmmm....trying to keep the 'kettle' at simmer...from the china authorities point of view.....

http://www.coindesk.com/needham-bitcoin-etf-attract-300-million-assets-approved/

I doubt it will pass, but again would be nice to be wrong, and the above come to pass.

Then again, I've no clue...at one time (newbie) i drank the BFL Kool Aid.....so obviously I'm likely still deluded with my 'rose colored glasses'

[disconnectme]

I will like to go against the masses and say Yes, the ETF is going to be approved and we will enter a new Bitcoin bubble.

[edgar]

I will like to go against the masses and say Yes, the ETF is going to be approved and we will enter a new Bitcoin bubble.

do it!