What are the odds of Winklesoss ETF passing? [POLL]

[1Referee]

Until today I was more close to "No", but now I vote for "yes". It's because of this strange price recoveries that happen every time we see a dump (since January). In earlier bubbles the price got much lower after a dump and I never saw it recover that fast.

The reason is possibly that there are "insiders" that have some idea what the possible outcome could be and are buying, speculating on a price explosion after positive news.

Strange price recoveries? Nothing strange about it since it has been happening for years. It's a constant repetitive pattern that the market is moving in. Insider trading is a common thing in the Bitcoin world as that bit of information is worth possibly millions of $$ every year. Sell it to traders and whoever is interested, and you'll make a ton of easy money with barely doing anything. Exchange operators and the wealthy traders being supported are the ones that rule this market with iron fist.

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[LLec]

I can not see it happening if bitcoin keeps on this downward trend and if it reaches below what it was from before last year's end then it won't get passed.
That is for certain.

What does price have to do with anything? There are tons of ETFs that have lost shit tons of money. What they care about is safety and viability. The price is someone else's problem.

Yes you are right with this statement.
I didn't quite know what the meaning of etf was and I see that when the price is changed it does not affect this at all.
And yes the price is someone's elses problem when it comes to anyone holding their bitcoins in this security.
I got alot more reading to do about this before I offer my opinion on it.
Thanks for clearing this up for me.
Yours truly,
LLec

[alyssa85]

One thing is sure, they have had enough time to work things out. If it still doesn't get approved, then something is fundamentally wrong. Not that it would change much for me if it doesn't get approved, but I think it will disappoint quite some people as this (once approved) may turn out to be an entry point for high level investors that are waiting on the side lines right now.

That something will be the concentration of mining in China, plus the backlog in transactions. Both shout "mickey mouse currency".

[d5000]

Strange price recoveries? Nothing strange about it since it has been happening for years. It's a constant repetitive pattern that the market is moving in.

After crashes, we had recoveries - here you're right. But never (after 2011) in a time period we saw recently. In most cases, recoveries were much faster or much slower.

One can cite, for example, the recoveries during the 2013 bubbles, that never needed more than ~10 days to reach a previous maximum. And as for the slower recoveries, there are the 2011-2013 recovery (almost 2 years) and the mid-2013 recovery (6+ months) and last but not least the 2014-17 recovery (3 years).

I interpret the slower recoveries as normal price behaviour after bubbles and the faster recoveries as simple retracements in a bull market. This time it seems different.

[BiTZeD]

Sadly it will not pass. Some banks or some great companies such as PayPal will pay for it to not get accepted. They will then give a fake reason. This is how it works.

[disconnectme]

Sadly it will not pass. Some banks or some great companies such as PayPal will pay for it to not get accepted. They will then give a fake reason. This is how it works.

I think you will be proved wrong, Bitcoin has passed the stage of denial and this people know it, the ETF will be passed and the price of BTC would skyrocket. Get out of Altcoins before March 1

[rjclarke2000]

Sadly it will not pass. Some banks or some great companies such as PayPal will pay for it to not get accepted. They will then give a fake reason. This is how it works.

I think you will be proved wrong, Bitcoin has passed the stage of denial and this people know it, the ETF will be passed and the price of BTC would skyrocket. Get out of Altcoins before March 1

I'd very much love you to be correct disconnectme

[Searing]

SEC insiders have been buying over the last year so they have a decent stash before approval.  Price will skyrocket when trading starts and make them all very rich.

Heh...damn...got 100 btc plus...I 'resemble' those people....would be nice if you were correct and I ambled in behind such with my 100 btc

pays to be a paranoid hoarder of btc I guess it this comes to pass

[Zebedee23]

Pretty sure there is more chance of ETF happening now Trump is President!!!

[Slark]

Pretty sure there is more chance of ETF happening now Trump is President!!!

Trump has zero influence on SEC's decision, as it is not political one, and even if he could do something about their stance, why would he do this?
There is nothing to gain for anyone except cryptocurrency community: banks, big business or Wall Street don't care about Coin ETF.  
 
I voted in this poll - and surprise, surprise, we have completely dead even numbers: 38-38 for both answers.
Unfortunately, this result, doesn't reflect real chances of ETF being approved at all.
Financial analysts claim there is less than 30% chance that SEC will give ETF a go.

[alyssa85]

Financial analysts claim there is less than 30% chance that SEC will give ETF a go.

It is the moining concentration behind the Great Firewall of China that is the real sticking point. It is a real shame that Satoshi's vision of mining distributed evenly across the world didn't come to pass.

[gentlemand]

It is the moining concentration behind the Great Firewall of China that is the real sticking point. It is a real shame that Satoshi's vision of mining distributed evenly across the world didn't come to pass.

Mining is a fluid thing that fluctuates constantly. It's quite possible the Chinese government may start sniffing around miners too. They must be doing some enormous OTC deals somewhere along the line.

Perhaps it'll come back to the rest of the world sooner than we realise. That would be a welcome development.

[Maskedman]

The feeling is very splitted, with barely 50/50%. For now, I have no precise idea, and I can not even rely on the poll, so I guess I will have to wait until March 11th.

[edgar]

SEC insiders have been buying over the last year so they have a decent stash before approval.  Price will skyrocket when trading starts and make them all very rich.

Heh...damn...got 100 btc plus...I 'resemble' those people....would be nice if you were correct and I ambled in behind such with my 100 btc

pays to be a paranoid hoarder of btc I guess it this comes to pass

Really?? ur back up to over 100 'just like that'?

[rjclarke2000]

People thought it was crazy to suggest trump could be president, people thought Britain would not vote for Brexit.

Anything can happen.

[CoinCidental]

Many People say   a trump administration will approve anything that makes sense for the bottom Line, and that would even include being first to offer a bitcoin etf before china or Japan starts one...

I think we may get a nice surprise gentlemen!