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 Author Topic: EV, BEP In martingale?  (Read 161 times)
puremage111
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 February 08, 2017, 07:47:57 AM

Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you.

Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations.

Winning chance : 98%
Profit : 1% of bet

Betting calculation

Start bet : 100 satoshi

If lose in streak
1st : 100
2nd : 10,000
3rd : 1,000,000

Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 \$0.10
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4%

Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 \$10-11
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%.

1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct?

2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3?

3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of \$50? is there way to calculate it?

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ArdiPrabowo
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 February 08, 2017, 08:13:15 AM

if you use profit setting is low profit and you use martiangle strategy
you money can fast all lost, marti angle is not good if use stake profit odds only use 1%

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m0gliE
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 February 08, 2017, 12:40:33 PM

Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you.

Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations.

Winning chance : 98%
Profit : 1% of bet

Betting calculation

Start bet : 100 satoshi

If lose in streak
1st : 100
2nd : 10,000
3rd : 1,000,000

Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 \$0.10
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4%

Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 \$10-11
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%.

1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct?

2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3?

3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of \$50? is there way to calculate it?

1/ yup, you know how to maths well done

2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3...

3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly.

puremage111
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Activity: 854
Merit: 507

A decentralized registry for unique assets

 February 08, 2017, 01:43:26 PM

Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you.

Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations.

Winning chance : 98%
Profit : 1% of bet

Betting calculation

Start bet : 100 satoshi

If lose in streak
1st : 100
2nd : 10,000
3rd : 1,000,000

Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 \$0.10
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4%

Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 \$10-11
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%.

1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct?

2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3?

3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of \$50? is there way to calculate it?

1/ yup, you know how to maths well done

2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3...

3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly.

For 2)

I mean if you have \$50

Will you prefer this setting

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 2 time in row
Total cost for each 2 streak loss : \$0.10

Or

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 3 time in row
Total cost for each 3 streak loss : \$10

Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose
\$0.10 x 100
OR
\$10 x 1

I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/

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BlockEye
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 February 08, 2017, 01:55:20 PM

Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you.

Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations.

Winning chance : 98%
Profit : 1% of bet

Betting calculation

Start bet : 100 satoshi

If lose in streak
1st : 100
2nd : 10,000
3rd : 1,000,000

Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 \$0.10
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4%

Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 \$10-11
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%.

1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct?

2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3?

3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of \$50? is there way to calculate it?

1/ yup, you know how to maths well done

2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3...

3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly.

For 2)

I mean if you have \$50

Will you prefer this setting

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 2 time in row
Total cost for each 2 streak loss : \$0.10

Or

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 3 time in row
Total cost for each 3 streak loss : \$10

Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose
\$0.10 x 100
OR
\$10 x 1

I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/

I think option is much better. If you restart your bet after 2 streak. You will just end up on a loop process until you reach the point of break even. You will just waste your time there. It is better to risk and keep roll over. Just don't play your settings for long period of time because the possibility of hitting the long red streak is increasing everytime the game duration is extending

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shintosai
Hero Member

Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 500

 February 08, 2017, 02:01:23 PM

Hello everyone, if you have ever tried betting, martingale might not be something new for you.

Therefore recently in class, while i am just feeling bored, i made some calculations.

Winning chance : 98%
Profit : 1% of bet

Betting calculation

Start bet : 100 satoshi

If lose in streak
1st : 100
2nd : 10,000
3rd : 1,000,000

Total cost for 2 streak : 10,100 》 0.00001Btc 》 \$0.10
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 = 4/1,000 》0.4%

Total cost for 3 streak : 1,001,100 》 0.01Btc 》 \$10-11
Chance of losing : 2/100 x 2/100 x 2/100 = 8/1000000 = 0.0008%.

1) Is the calculation of losing in 3 streak correct?

2) In your own way of betting, will you prefer to bet at a max losing streak of 2 or losing streak of 3?

3) in streak of 2/3, which one have a better EV if you have a bankroll of \$50? is there way to calculate it?

1/ yup, you know how to maths well done

2/ Don't understand your question, there is no difference between streak of 2 and of 3...

3/ That's... The same. EV only depends on the house edge of the casino if I remember correctly.

For 2)

I mean if you have \$50

Will you prefer this setting

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 2 time in row
Total cost for each 2 streak loss : \$0.10

Or

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 3 time in row
Total cost for each 3 streak loss : \$10

Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose
\$0.10 x 100
OR
\$10 x 1

I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/

I think option is much better. If you restart your bet after 2 streak. You will just end up on a loop process until you reach the point of break even. You will just waste your time there. It is better to risk and keep roll over. Just don't play your settings for long period of time because the possibility of hitting the long red streak is increasing everytime the game duration is extending
Yes mate it can get some success if played in much shorter time with also a decent earnings as we knew theres a lots of possibilities to happen inside any gambling site we cant say when the red streak will show up but for OP i like your idea and i might try it by myself considering that 3 straight wont happen right away.

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m0gliE
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1134
Merit: 1003

 February 08, 2017, 02:26:08 PM

For 2)

I mean if you have \$50

Will you prefer this setting

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 2 time in row
Total cost for each 2 streak loss : \$0.10

Or

Start : 100
Increase : x100 on loss
Restart when lose 3 time in row
Total cost for each 3 streak loss : \$10

Hope you get what i mean, its something like will you rather to lose
\$0.10 x 100
OR
\$10 x 1

I am not a native english speaker, so it might be confusing, sorry for that ;/
Ok.
Well then the second one is slightly better I'd say but there is no real difference.
What you propose is basically a Martingale with small odds.
The only difference with a classical Martingale is that you won't lose often and you'll win only extremely small profits when you win...

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