ASICMINER Auction: 10 Block Erupter Blades -ended-

[coinnewb]

Congratulations to all the winners.  If you missed out and still want an ASIC, I have an Avalon batch 1 on-hand unit for sale at much lower price on per GH/s basis: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178635.0

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[iCEBREAKER]

I haven't done the math so I have no idea whether you made the best purchases in history or threw your money out the window.

Math takes all the fun out of gambling!   

[mrb]

They'll break even in roughly 4-5 month, I don't think difficulty will go up by much, since BFL can't deliver shit until August the earliest.

Ludicrous. They will break even in 4-5 months only if the difficulty stays constant for the next 4-5 months! Suffice it to say, it is not going to stay constant...

Even discounting BFL, there are many other entities that will increase the hashrate:
- ASICMINER self-mining (12 Thash/s of blades manufactured, 50 Thash/s to be presumably deployed in the next month, and 200 Thash/s even later)
- ASICMINER future hardware sales (these 0.1 Thash/s of blades were just the beginning... like I said above, they manufactured 12 Thash/s of them so far and will build many more)
- Avalon ASIC batch #2 (40 Thash/s minimum)
- Avalon ASIC batch #3 (40 Thash/s minimum)
- Avalon OEM chip sales (anywhere from 10-100 Thash/s)
- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)

If you do the math, a month-to-month hashrate increase of 35% is sufficient to guarantee that the people who bought these blades will basically never make their coins back. They bought them (I hope) to selflessly support the network, and for historical reasons.

[Minor Miner]

They'll break even in roughly 4-5 month, I don't think difficulty will go up by much, since BFL can't deliver shit until August the earliest.

Ludicrous. They will break even in 4-5 months only if the difficulty stays constant for the next 4-5 months! Suffice it to say, it is not going to stay constant...

Even discounting BFL, there are many other entities that will increase the hashrate:
- ASICMINER self-mining (12 Thash/s of blades manufactured, 50 Thash/s to be presumably deployed in the next month, and 200 Thash/s even later)
- ASICMINER future hardware sales (these 0.1 Thash/s of blades were just the beginning... like I said above, they manufactured 12 Thash/s of them so far and will build many more)
- Avalon ASIC batch #2 (40 Thash/s minimum)
- Avalon ASIC batch #3 (40 Thash/s minimum)
- Avalon OEM chip sales (anywhere from 10-100 Thash/s)
- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)

If you do the math, a month-to-month hashrate increase of 35% is sufficient to guarantee that the people who bought these blades will basically never make their coins back. They bought them (I hope) to selflessly support the network, and for historical reasons.

I agree with your statement above but your signature does not make sense.  I have clicked through on it and almost ALL the people in your signature DO BELIEVE in asics and you have linked to them making what have turned out to be EXACTLY correct predictions about the feasibility of certain liar's claims.

[mrb]

kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:

Month 0 (10.0M diff): mined 16.45 BTC, total = 16.45 BTC
Month 1 (13.5M diff): mined 12.18 BTC, total = 28.63 BTC
Month 2 (18.2M diff): mined 9.02 BTC, total = 37.66 BTC
Month 3 (24.6M diff): mined 6.68 BTC, total = 44.34 BTC
Month 4 (33.2M diff): mined 4.95 BTC, total = 49.29 BTC
Month 5 (44.8M diff): mined 3.67 BTC, total = 52.96 BTC
Month 6 (60.5M diff): mined 2.72 BTC, total = 55.68 BTC
Month 7 (81.7M diff): mined 2.01 BTC, total = 57.69 BTC
Month 8 (110.3M diff): mined 1.49 BTC, total = 59.18 BTC
Month 9 (148.9M diff): mined 1.10 BTC, total = 60.28 BTC
Month 10 (201.1M diff): mined 0.82 BTC, total = 61.10 BTC
Month 11 (271.4M diff): mined 0.61 BTC, total = 61.71 BTC
Month 12 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.16 BTC
Month 13 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.61 BTC
Month 14 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.05 BTC
Month 15 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.50 BTC
Month 16 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.95 BTC
Month 17 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.40 BTC
Month 18 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.85 BTC
Month 19 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.30 BTC
Month 20 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.75 BTC
Month 21 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.20 BTC
Month 22 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.65 BTC
Month 23 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 67.09 BTC

...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.

[mrb]

I have clicked through on it and almost ALL the people in your signature DO BELIEVE in asics and you have linked to them making what have turned out to be EXACTLY correct predictions about the feasibility of certain liar's claims.

We are getting off-topic. Let's not derail this thread. PM me or open a new thread if you want to discuss.

[eb3full]

I didn't buy this blade to get a return from mining with it.

[Jutarul]

I didn't buy this blade to get a return from mining with it.

Also called kamikaze mining

[kokojie]

Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.

Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?

kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:

Month 0 (10.0M diff): mined 16.45 BTC, total = 16.45 BTC
Month 1 (13.5M diff): mined 12.18 BTC, total = 28.63 BTC
Month 2 (18.2M diff): mined 9.02 BTC, total = 37.66 BTC
Month 3 (24.6M diff): mined 6.68 BTC, total = 44.34 BTC
Month 4 (33.2M diff): mined 4.95 BTC, total = 49.29 BTC
Month 5 (44.8M diff): mined 3.67 BTC, total = 52.96 BTC
Month 6 (60.5M diff): mined 2.72 BTC, total = 55.68 BTC
Month 7 (81.7M diff): mined 2.01 BTC, total = 57.69 BTC
Month 8 (110.3M diff): mined 1.49 BTC, total = 59.18 BTC
Month 9 (148.9M diff): mined 1.10 BTC, total = 60.28 BTC
Month 10 (201.1M diff): mined 0.82 BTC, total = 61.10 BTC
Month 11 (271.4M diff): mined 0.61 BTC, total = 61.71 BTC
Month 12 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.16 BTC
Month 13 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.61 BTC
Month 14 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.05 BTC
Month 15 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.50 BTC
Month 16 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.95 BTC
Month 17 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.40 BTC
Month 18 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.85 BTC
Month 19 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.30 BTC
Month 20 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.75 BTC
Month 21 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.20 BTC
Month 22 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.65 BTC
Month 23 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 67.09 BTC

...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.

[Minor Miner]

Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.

Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?

[/quote]
I do not think his assumption is that bad.   Just back into what the HR would be.   He does not HR above 150,000GH until August.   So, if you have 60 now plus over 40 each for avalon batch II and III you are already at 140, plus friedcat puts you ABOVE his estimate for august.   And I do not think it will take until august for friedcat to roll out 10TH plus avalon will have their 80TH out there probably by start of July.

[MacDschie]

Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.

Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?

kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:

[...]

...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.

I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear. If you calculate linear growth (difficulty +3.5M per month) instead, break-even comes after 10 months.

I also don't understand where you got the +100% per month in the last 2 months.

1st of March: ~4M
1st of April: ~6.5M
now (and until 1st of May): ~9M

That's +2.5M per month and even lower than I've calculated with.

[fcmatt]

Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.

Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?

kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:

[...]

...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.

I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear. If you calculate linear growth (difficulty +3.5M per month) instead, break-even comes after 10 months.

I also don't understand where you got the +100% per month in the last 2 months.

1st of March: ~4M
1st of April: ~6.5M
now (and until 1st of May): ~9M

That's +2.5M per month and even lower than I've calculated with.

The estimate is not that bad. Bfl is the true dark horse when it comes to profitability.
Just look at the diff from friedcat and avalon just scratching the surface of what they have planned.

[perseus]

Oh, good points. Price wise, it's not competitive, but energy-wise it is. So I guess it just means they'll be running it for a very, very long time before it pays off.

For the same $, you could have bought GPUs and had 13.5 GH!

electricity, heat, noise, space...

plus setting up the motherboards, cpu's, GPU's, RAM, powersuppiles.

Stacking the units into a sensible order

Not to mention the drivers + OS config, automation, then fine tuning.

Its quite alot of effort!

[SmiGueL]

I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear.

Which part of "First we deploy 12 TH/s, a few months later 50 TH/s and few months after that 200TH/s" is linear?..

[simonk83]

Well, I think you're all crazy, but well done anyway I guess

[Viceroy]

Here's a good analysis of the short term difficulty curve.  If there is a magician who can extrapolate beyond this point PLEASE CONTACT ME!  (Yea, right!)

[romerun]

- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)

 

[Batteryfire]

PM'ed friedcat, 75 BTC ready to send 

[iCEBREAKER]

Which part of "First we deploy 12 TH/s, a few months later 50 TH/s and few months after that 200TH/s" is linear?..

Maybe it's linear if you use a logarithmic scale?   

[JordanL]

Congratulations to the victors.