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iCEBREAKER
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Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
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April 19, 2013, 10:31:50 PM |
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I haven't done the math so I have no idea whether you made the best purchases in history or threw your money out the window. Math takes all the fun out of gambling!
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██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████████ ████████████████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████████████ ████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████████ ██████████ Monero
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| "The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." David Chaum 1996 "Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect." Adam Back 2014
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mrb
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Activity: 1512
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April 19, 2013, 10:41:51 PM |
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They'll break even in roughly 4-5 month, I don't think difficulty will go up by much, since BFL can't deliver shit until August the earliest.
Ludicrous. They will break even in 4-5 months only if the difficulty stays constant for the next 4-5 months! Suffice it to say, it is not going to stay constant... Even discounting BFL, there are many other entities that will increase the hashrate: - ASICMINER self-mining (12 Thash/s of blades manufactured, 50 Thash/s to be presumably deployed in the next month, and 200 Thash/s even later) - ASICMINER future hardware sales (these 0.1 Thash/s of blades were just the beginning... like I said above, they manufactured 12 Thash/s of them so far and will build many more) - Avalon ASIC batch #2 (40 Thash/s minimum) - Avalon ASIC batch #3 (40 Thash/s minimum) - Avalon OEM chip sales (anywhere from 10-100 Thash/s) - 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold) If you do the math, a month-to-month hashrate increase of 35% is sufficient to guarantee that the people who bought these blades will basically never make their coins back. They bought them (I hope) to selflessly support the network, and for historical reasons.
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Minor Miner
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Be A Digital Miner
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April 19, 2013, 10:47:10 PM |
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They'll break even in roughly 4-5 month, I don't think difficulty will go up by much, since BFL can't deliver shit until August the earliest.
Ludicrous. They will break even in 4-5 months only if the difficulty stays constant for the next 4-5 months! Suffice it to say, it is not going to stay constant... Even discounting BFL, there are many other entities that will increase the hashrate: - ASICMINER self-mining (12 Thash/s of blades manufactured, 50 Thash/s to be presumably deployed in the next month, and 200 Thash/s even later) - ASICMINER future hardware sales (these 0.1 Thash/s of blades were just the beginning... like I said above, they manufactured 12 Thash/s of them so far and will build many more) - Avalon ASIC batch #2 (40 Thash/s minimum) - Avalon ASIC batch #3 (40 Thash/s minimum) - Avalon OEM chip sales (anywhere from 10-100 Thash/s) - 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold) If you do the math, a month-to-month hashrate increase of 35% is sufficient to guarantee that the people who bought these blades will basically never make their coins back. They bought them (I hope) to selflessly support the network, and for historical reasons. I agree with your statement above but your signature does not make sense. I have clicked through on it and almost ALL the people in your signature DO BELIEVE in asics and you have linked to them making what have turned out to be EXACTLY correct predictions about the feasibility of certain liar's claims.
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mrb
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April 19, 2013, 10:56:20 PM |
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kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:
Month 0 (10.0M diff): mined 16.45 BTC, total = 16.45 BTC Month 1 (13.5M diff): mined 12.18 BTC, total = 28.63 BTC Month 2 (18.2M diff): mined 9.02 BTC, total = 37.66 BTC Month 3 (24.6M diff): mined 6.68 BTC, total = 44.34 BTC Month 4 (33.2M diff): mined 4.95 BTC, total = 49.29 BTC Month 5 (44.8M diff): mined 3.67 BTC, total = 52.96 BTC Month 6 (60.5M diff): mined 2.72 BTC, total = 55.68 BTC Month 7 (81.7M diff): mined 2.01 BTC, total = 57.69 BTC Month 8 (110.3M diff): mined 1.49 BTC, total = 59.18 BTC Month 9 (148.9M diff): mined 1.10 BTC, total = 60.28 BTC Month 10 (201.1M diff): mined 0.82 BTC, total = 61.10 BTC Month 11 (271.4M diff): mined 0.61 BTC, total = 61.71 BTC Month 12 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.16 BTC Month 13 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.61 BTC Month 14 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.05 BTC Month 15 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.50 BTC Month 16 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.95 BTC Month 17 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.40 BTC Month 18 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.85 BTC Month 19 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.30 BTC Month 20 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.75 BTC Month 21 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.20 BTC Month 22 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.65 BTC Month 23 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 67.09 BTC
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
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mrb
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April 19, 2013, 11:02:33 PM |
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I have clicked through on it and almost ALL the people in your signature DO BELIEVE in asics and you have linked to them making what have turned out to be EXACTLY correct predictions about the feasibility of certain liar's claims.
We are getting off-topic. Let's not derail this thread. PM me or open a new thread if you want to discuss.
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eb3full
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April 19, 2013, 11:45:22 PM |
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I didn't buy this blade to get a return from mining with it.
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"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." John von Neumann buy me beer: 1HG9cBBYME4HUVhfAqQvW9Vqwh3PLioHcU
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Jutarul
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April 19, 2013, 11:49:02 PM |
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I didn't buy this blade to get a return from mining with it.
Also called kamikaze mining
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kokojie
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April 19, 2013, 11:57:40 PM |
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Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise. Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month? kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:
Month 0 (10.0M diff): mined 16.45 BTC, total = 16.45 BTC Month 1 (13.5M diff): mined 12.18 BTC, total = 28.63 BTC Month 2 (18.2M diff): mined 9.02 BTC, total = 37.66 BTC Month 3 (24.6M diff): mined 6.68 BTC, total = 44.34 BTC Month 4 (33.2M diff): mined 4.95 BTC, total = 49.29 BTC Month 5 (44.8M diff): mined 3.67 BTC, total = 52.96 BTC Month 6 (60.5M diff): mined 2.72 BTC, total = 55.68 BTC Month 7 (81.7M diff): mined 2.01 BTC, total = 57.69 BTC Month 8 (110.3M diff): mined 1.49 BTC, total = 59.18 BTC Month 9 (148.9M diff): mined 1.10 BTC, total = 60.28 BTC Month 10 (201.1M diff): mined 0.82 BTC, total = 61.10 BTC Month 11 (271.4M diff): mined 0.61 BTC, total = 61.71 BTC Month 12 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.16 BTC Month 13 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 62.61 BTC Month 14 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.05 BTC Month 15 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.50 BTC Month 16 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 63.95 BTC Month 17 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.40 BTC Month 18 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 64.85 BTC Month 19 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.30 BTC Month 20 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 65.75 BTC Month 21 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.20 BTC Month 22 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 66.65 BTC Month 23 (366.4M diff): mined 0.45 BTC, total = 67.09 BTC
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
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btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
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Minor Miner
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April 20, 2013, 12:03:31 AM |
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Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.
Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?
[/quote] I do not think his assumption is that bad. Just back into what the HR would be. He does not HR above 150,000GH until August. So, if you have 60 now plus over 40 each for avalon batch II and III you are already at 140, plus friedcat puts you ABOVE his estimate for august. And I do not think it will take until august for friedcat to roll out 10TH plus avalon will have their 80TH out there probably by start of July.
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MacDschie
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April 20, 2013, 12:22:11 AM |
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Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise. Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month? kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:
[...]
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear. If you calculate linear growth (difficulty +3.5M per month) instead, break-even comes after 10 months. I also don't understand where you got the +100% per month in the last 2 months. 1st of March: ~4M 1st of April: ~6.5M now (and until 1st of May): ~9M That's +2.5M per month and even lower than I've calculated with.
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fcmatt
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Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
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April 20, 2013, 12:32:43 AM |
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Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise. Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month? kokojie: by the time the blades have shipped, cleared customs, and are online, difficulty will probably be 10M. From then, assuming a 35% month-to-month difficulty increase (which is conservative IMHO - it has increased 100% month-over-month in the last 2 months), and assuming it stops increasing after month 12 (which is unrealistic), and assuming free electricity (also unrealistic), the math gives:
[...]
...so buyers will not even mine the 75+ BTC they paid for. Consider also that my math is generous as it assumes the same difficulty throughout each month (when it will in fact increase every 2016 blocks). And consider that two years from now, there will be even power efficient ASICs, more intense mining competition, etc.
I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear. If you calculate linear growth (difficulty +3.5M per month) instead, break-even comes after 10 months. I also don't understand where you got the +100% per month in the last 2 months. 1st of March: ~4M 1st of April: ~6.5M now (and until 1st of May): ~9M That's +2.5M per month and even lower than I've calculated with. The estimate is not that bad. Bfl is the true dark horse when it comes to profitability. Just look at the diff from friedcat and avalon just scratching the surface of what they have planned.
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perseus
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April 20, 2013, 12:36:39 AM |
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Oh, good points. Price wise, it's not competitive, but energy-wise it is. So I guess it just means they'll be running it for a very, very long time before it pays off. For the same $, you could have bought GPUs and had 13.5 GH!
electricity, heat, noise, space... plus setting up the motherboards, cpu's, GPU's, RAM, powersuppiles. Stacking the units into a sensible order Not to mention the drivers + OS config, automation, then fine tuning. Its quite alot of effort!
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SmiGueL
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April 20, 2013, 12:44:48 AM |
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I also don't understand the +35% per month. That's exponential growth. Totally unrealistic to presume in the long run. At the moment, it seems exponential, because a new technology has emerged, but the production of the hardware is and will be linear.
Which part of "First we deploy 12 TH/s, a few months later 50 TH/s and few months after that 200TH/s" is linear?..
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simonk83
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April 20, 2013, 01:16:04 AM |
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Well, I think you're all crazy, but well done anyway I guess
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romerun
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Activity: 1078
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Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
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April 20, 2013, 01:38:33 AM |
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- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)
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Batteryfire
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April 20, 2013, 01:48:41 AM |
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PM'ed friedcat, 75 BTC ready to send
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iCEBREAKER
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
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April 20, 2013, 02:18:49 AM |
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Which part of "First we deploy 12 TH/s, a few months later 50 TH/s and few months after that 200TH/s" is linear?..
Maybe it's linear if you use a logarithmic scale?
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| "The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." David Chaum 1996 "Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect." Adam Back 2014
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JordanL
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April 20, 2013, 02:44:43 AM |
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Congratulations to the victors.
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