ASICMINER Auction: 10 Block Erupter Blades -ended-

[nebulus]

It'd be nice if the winners would post some public reviews of the product once they receive and test it. I think us - stockholders would greatly appreciate it.

[mrb]

Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.

Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?

Merely taking into account the known hashrate that is about to hit the network in the next 6-12 months adds up to 250-1000 Thash/s. If added progressively over time, it is mathematically equivalent to a continuous 35% month-over-month growth for the next 4 (no BFL) to 10 (BFL included) months.

And add up the unknown hashrate from unknown miners or future vendors, and it is not hard to imagine this 35% growth could last 12 months. After 12 months, my numbers assume the growth would stop, so I don't even have to invoke indefinite exponential growth to come to my conclusion.

Let's put it this way: if you don't plan for a 35% increase month-over-month over a short period of time of 12 months... well let's just say you are in for a serious surprise !

I invite you to see http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png showing the CPU to GPU transition alone was able to sustain +115% month-over-month exponential growth for 18 months. So really, +35% for 12 months is totally realistic especially given the BTC exchange rate that is likely to shoot up.

[mrb]

Your first mistake: assuming 35% month-to-month rise.

Why the fuck would difficulty rise 35% every month? Does ASIC hardware manufacturers magically increase production by 35% every month?

Merely taking into account the known hashrate that is about to hit the network in the next 6-12 months adds up to 250-1000 Thash/s. If added progressively over time, it is mathematically equivalent to a continuous 35% month-over-month growth for the next 4 (no BFL) to 10 (BFL included) months.

And add up the unknown hashrate from unknown miners or future vendors, and it is not hard to imagine this 35% growth could last 12 months. After 12 months, my numbers assume the growth would stop, so I don't even have to invoke indefinite exponential growth to come to my conclusion.

Let's put it this way: if you don't plan for a 35% increase month-over-month over a short period of time of 12 months... well let's just say you are in for a serious surprise !

I invite you to see http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png showing the CPU to GPU transition alone was able to sustain +115% month-over-month exponential growth for 18 months. So really, +35% for 12 months is totally realistic especially given the BTC exchange rate that is likely to shoot up.

[mrb]

I do not think his assumption is that bad.   Just back into what the HR would be.   He does not HR above 150,000GH until August.   So, if you have 60 now plus over 40 each for avalon batch II and III you are already at 140, plus friedcat puts you ABOVE his estimate for august.   And I do not think it will take until august for friedcat to roll out 10TH plus avalon will have their 80TH out there probably by start of July.

Exactly. It is likely the month-to-month will be actually higher than 35% in the immediate future, and then lower than 35% the rest of 2013 and early 2014.

[mrb]

- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)

See https://picostocks.com/businessplan/19

[Maciek]

was there an escrow for those blades?

[John (John K.)]

was there an escrow for those blades?

Nope. I trust that you can trust friedcat enough in this case - his mining shares pay out more than this in 1 week. 

[kaerf]

Let's put it this way: if you don't plan for a 35% increase month-over-month over a short period of time of 12 months... well let's just say you are in for a serious surprise !

this.

if you've been following ASICs development, you know the biggest costs are the initial costs. it will be much cheaper and easier for companies to mass produce more hashing power going forward. you also need to factor in the increasing popularity of bitcoin. not only is the hardware taking a giant leap, so will the number of miners.

- 100th project (103 Thash/s of shares sold)

 

100TH sold. 200+ TH in production.

18 wafers (more than 200TH/s). 1/2 goes for the mine. 1/4 is already sold as chips to undisclosed manufacturers. They will use them to produce hardware for customers [but who knows when this will be ready]. Rest goes for own development.

[tnkflx]

There are still Avalons for sale https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=177257.0

[DutchBrat]

I am curious to see if next weeks auction will yield the same results, or if we have to wait till the 3rd auction to see the prices come down.

I dont think this auction will be representative of a fair pricing point which asicminer can use as a benchmark for selling any TH amount of blades.....

[237]

I am curious to see if next weeks auction will yield the same results, or if we have to wait till the 3rd auction to see the prices come down.

I dont think this auction will be representative of a fair pricing point which asicminer can use as a benchmark for selling any TH amount of blades.....

AM don't have to find a "fair pricing" since all miners will be sold via auctions. Thus all sold prices are "fair" for the winners of
the auction.

[simonk83]

I am curious to see if next weeks auction will yield the same results, or if we have to wait till the 3rd auction to see the prices come down.

I dont think this auction will be representative of a fair pricing point which asicminer can use as a benchmark for selling any TH amount of blades.....

Agreed.  I'm not sure anyone in their right mind will pay these prices again.   Some people are talking about the "historical" value of getting one of these first, but that makes zero sense to me either, so there you go.   I'd have thought that the next lot would be at a much more reasonable price point (you'd hope so, or what's the point).  We'll see.

[DutchBrat]

I am curious to see if next weeks auction will yield the same results, or if we have to wait till the 3rd auction to see the prices come down.

I dont think this auction will be representative of a fair pricing point which asicminer can use as a benchmark for selling any TH amount of blades.....

AM don't have to find a "fair pricing" since all miners will be sold via auctions. Thus all sold prices are "fair" for the winners of
the auction.

Not all miners will be sold through auctions.

Friedcat stated that the whole point of a couple of auctions running over the course of a few weeks, is to decide a price point at which to offer a buyatthisprice batch much much larger than the auctions, if they decide to sell (which they will if deployment is stagnating due to 50% hashrate being reached or datacenter capacity problems)

[237]

I am curious to see if next weeks auction will yield the same results, or if we have to wait till the 3rd auction to see the prices come down.

I dont think this auction will be representative of a fair pricing point which asicminer can use as a benchmark for selling any TH amount of blades.....

AM don't have to find a "fair pricing" since all miners will be sold via auctions. Thus all sold prices are "fair" for the winners of
the auction.

Not all miners will be sold through auctions.

Friedcat stated that the whole point of a couple of auctions running over the course of a few weeks, is to decide a price point at which to offer a buyatthisprice batch much much larger than the auctions, if they decide to sell (which they will if deployment is stagnating due to 50% hashrate being reached or datacenter capacity problems)

Sorry i must have missed that announcement. Then you are of course right, since the next auctions won't most likely go that high.

[CrazyGuy]

THE WINNERS:

alexuk	BTC76
eb3full	BTC76
waterpowered	BTC75
LainZ	BTC75
Batteryfire	BTC75
Pinwheel	BTC75
Pinwheel	BTC75
pixel75	BTC75
MacDschie	BTC75
MacDschie	BTC75

Please check if I got something wrong guys. Friedcat will be contacting the winners directly (via PM or thread post) with your payment addresses.

Congratulations again!

Congratulations winners, and congratulations ASICMiner! I'm amazed that these units sold at this price, it really shows how much ASICS are in demand. With that said, I've got an excellent offer for those of you that bid but were not lucky enough to be in the top ten. I'm offering an Avalon ASIC batch #2 order for 40.3% off the lowest winning block erupter price of 75BTC for 10gh/s. At that price, the 67gh/s AVALON price equivalent is 502.5 BTC. I'm selling mine for 300 BTC!

If you bid over 44.775 BTC on a block erupter unit, then this deal is for you!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181135.0

This is a preorder price only. If you are looking for the security of an escrow assisted purchase with BTC returned in the event of prolonged delay, I am offering a higher price point which is still 11% off of Block erupter price!. Visit my sale thread for more info.

[kaerf]

If you're in northern California, you can get an avalon NOW.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181834.0

[Viceroy]

Does anyone have the ASICMiner shipping schedule? 

Please see this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178051.msg1898516#msg1898516

[friedcat]

Tracking numbers are sent to customers. They are all shipped from Hongkong via DHL.

[friedcat]

The user tip is also online and under extension/modification:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VMO3VfIBy3KIwUaaQ8XhKrSVEbXeeMEqsVhhk6Bz9io/edit?usp=sharing

[DeanC]

The user tip is also online and under extension/modification:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VMO3VfIBy3KIwUaaQ8XhKrSVEbXeeMEqsVhhk6Bz9io/edit?usp=sharing

When do you plan to auction next Blades?