Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

Bitcoin usage only will justify a price of $25-50. Current remittances and the rare purchases in bitcoin are just not high enough yet.

We will likely approach $100 before rebounding. Speculators will come again but not for another year.

bitcoin is not just only a currency it is also a store of value like gold

The irony can't be lost on you, right?

I've been saying the same thing for more than a year now, like a broken record, on the way to the ATH and during the bear market alike: an asset that appreciates hugely in a short time is not a very good 'store of value', and one that loses 75% of its value in a year certainly isn't one either.

This is not to say Bitcoin cannot ever become one - just that, as it is now, with pretty wild swings in either direction, it isn't, even though some of the more, hm, brave Bitcoin supporters use it as if it were one, with the obvious consequences (i.e. if they "stored" early, major gains, if they "stored" within the last year, major losses)

Oda, do you ever reveal your position? Are you long now, short, partially this or that.. would love to know how you view the coming weeks, etc. Do you believe in the long term success, any killer arguments for why it would appeal to the common man in the street?

Huh, never actually kept my position a secret in the past, I'm just sometimes a bit secretive with my methods I suppose I'm in USD with the trading portion of my stash, but looking for a good entry point. Cold storage untouched.

"Long term success" is a pretty wide question, depends on what you'd consider a success. But if the question is narrowed down a bit, then: yes, I still think there is a solid chance that Bitcoin will become a useful financial tool (possibly more niche though than some are comfortable with) over the course of the next years, and price is likely to react accordingly. But neither do I think this (qualified) success is guaranteed, nor do I think it will get there on a smooth path.

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[NotLambchop]

Why is this happening?

You've angered Satoshi, for He is a jealous God!

[shmadz]

shmadz:  Are you still profitable as a miner at these prices? At what prices do you stop being in profit considering your electricity cost?
Serious question not trolling or anything  

If I were able to write of the capital cost of the hardware, as well as a percentage of my electricity and rent, then yeah, I think I would be able to fully cover any supposed "gains" or "income" that they might want to tax me for.

So yeah, at this price and difficulty it's pretty much a wash.

If you were to consider only electricity, consider the case of a single Jupiter.

About 3TH/s / 320288.938 th/s for the entire network gets you =0.0000093665 of the daily 3600 coins, so roughly =0.0337195536 per day

At ten cents per kWh and about 2kw times 24 hours that's like 4.80 per 0.0337195536 so about =142.350638948 per bitcoin right now...

Of course, in practice, it fluctuates wildly, but that would be the expected average, till the next difficulty change

[abercrombie]

Keep calm everyone, Cheap Coins for all!   

[Wandererfromthenorth]

shmadz:  Are you still profitable as a miner at these prices? At what prices do you stop being in profit considering your electricity cost?
Serious question not trolling or anything  

If I were able to write of the capital cost of the hardware, as well as a percentage of my electricity and rent, then yeah, I think I would be able to fully cover any supposed "gains" or "income" that they might want to tax me for.

So yeah, at this price and difficulty it's pretty much a wash.

If you were to consider only electricity, consider the case of a single Jupiter.

About 3TH/s / 320288.938 th/s for the entire network gets you =0.0000093665 of the daily 3600 coins, so roughly =0.0337195536 per day

At ten cents per kWh and about 2kw times 24 hours that's like 4.80 per 0.0337195536 so about =142.350638948 per bitcoin right now...

Of course, in practice, it fluctuates wildly, but that would be the expected average, till the next difficulty change

Perfect thank you for the exhaustive answer  

[yefi]

Changed my mind.
closed all shorts and went long,.. for the next few hours/days.

Looks like its breaking down to retest 275?

Not yet, in a few days.

You sure about that? 

[kodtycoon]

shmadz:  Are you still profitable as a miner at these prices? At what prices do you stop being in profit considering your electricity cost?
Serious question not trolling or anything  

If I were able to write of the capital cost of the hardware, as well as a percentage of my electricity and rent, then yeah, I think I would be able to fully cover any supposed "gains" or "income" that they might want to tax me for.

So yeah, at this price and difficulty it's pretty much a wash.

If you were to consider only electricity, consider the case of a single Jupiter.

About 3TH/s / 320288.938 th/s for the entire network gets you =0.0000093665 of the daily 3600 coins, so roughly =0.0337195536 per day

At ten cents per kWh and about 2kw times 24 hours that's like 4.80 per 0.0337195536 so about =142.350638948 per bitcoin right now...

Of course, in practice, it fluctuates wildly, but that would be the expected average, till the next difficulty change

Perfect thank you for the exhaustive answer  

dont think thats the same story for everyone..

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=770591.msg10028634#msg10028634

[esse83]

Bitcoin usage only will justify a price of $25-50. Current remittances and the rare purchases in bitcoin are just not high enough yet.

We will likely approach $100 before rebounding. Speculators will come again but not for another year.

bitcoin is not just only a currency it is also a store of value like gold

The irony can't be lost on you, right?

I've been saying the same thing for more than a year now, like a broken record, on the way to the ATH and during the bear market alike: an asset that appreciates hugely in a short time is not a very good 'store of value', and one that loses 75% of its value in a year certainly isn't one either.

This is not to say Bitcoin cannot ever become one - just that, as it is now, with pretty wild swings in either direction, it isn't, even though some of the more, hm, brave Bitcoin supporters use it as if it were one, with the obvious consequences (i.e. if they "stored" early, major gains, if they "stored" within the last year, major losses)

Oda, do you ever reveal your position? Are you long now, short, partially this or that.. would love to know how you view the coming weeks, etc. Do you believe in the long term success, any killer arguments for why it would appeal to the common man in the street?

Huh, never actually kept my position a secret in the past, I'm just sometimes a bit secretive with my methods I suppose I'm in USD with the trading portion of my stash, but looking for a good entry point. Cold storage untouched.

"Long term success" is a pretty wide question, depends on what you'd consider a success. But if the question is narrowed down a bit, then: yes, I still think there is a solid chance that Bitcoin will become a useful financial tool (possibly more niche though than some are comfortable with) over the course of the next years, and price is likely to react accordingly. But neither do I think this (qualified) success is guaranteed, nor do I think it will get there on a smooth path.

Thanks, and yeah I do agree with you that about it being used for niche (like silkroad I guess), what I noticed about trading is that BBANDS seems to be exceptionally good at predicting crashes.. is that what you use? Whenever the bands close in there is everytime a crash. Anyway, thanks for the answer. Lets see how low this one goes.

[luckygenough56]

bye bye ltc

[shmadz]

What about a more modern SHA256 altcoin?  One which is more profitable to mine & most miners switch to to make money?

I've also been thinking about this. At the risk of being spammy, allow me to reiterate:

Here's a thought experiment:

What happens if some crypto with superior features (say Monero just for the purposes of this experiment) starts to gain market share to the point where it becomes more profitable to mine (probably already happening) - but here's the interesting part...

What if that coin decides to allow for some kind of dual-mining algorithm,  say perhaps a hard fork to allow the current mining scheme to continue, but also add sha-256 to be mined on the same node, almost like merge mining, to allow for some bonus distribution of coins?

Just a hypothetical situation, but something like this is just one more way to attack the security of the Blockchain...

[esse83]

We are now entering below the major support line at the chinese markets, btw. It will probably dip some below and then establish itself above it again. If not.. oh my

[maranello1561]

Bitcoin usage only will justify a price of $25-50. Current remittances and the rare purchases in bitcoin are just not high enough yet.

We will likely approach $100 before rebounding. Speculators will come again but not for another year.

bitcoin is not just only a currency it is also a store of value like gold

LOL... Funniest thing I heard all week. You are a funny guy Johnny. I like you.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Remember that finex still has 20 million USD in longs that can get margin called  

It's basically like 20 million USD worth of coins that are waiting to be dumped  

[maranello1561]

The Bitcoin is Dead. Long Live the Bitcoin.

[Specular]

$275 is being tested - major area of resistance here.

This could get bloody - or we are in for a bounce soon.

[maranello1561]

Keep calm everyone, Cheap Coins for all!   

This is my bitcoin, this is my bag. There are many like it, but this bag is mine.
Bagholders, everywhere.

[findftp]

Lol, all those bears turning bull.
We just began with forming the bottom.
Be patient.

We at least have to go through 282 and form a temporary bottom for a few days.
After that we go to unknown places, I bet at least below 250, who knows how far.
But the good part is, it's the last bottom. It's only up after that, that means moon.

Because reasons?

My crystal ball told me.
However, this ball is making big profits for me lately so I have difficulty in ignoring it's magic.

I'm too lazy to go looking for it, but weren't you crying a couple weeks ago about how you fuck up every single trade or some shit?

True! Very good memory you have.
(here it is https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9902505#msg9902505 watch how I was spot on about 333 as well.)
I missed the run up from 305 to 333 while I was short. But I just kept my short knowing we would go lower again.
Only fucked up some additional trading funds.

And looky looky where we are now.

Besides, you also noticed these warnings?


Pretty spot on, thanks.

And you know what?
I fucked up again
Not even listening to my own advice.
Bought too early

[macsga]

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

None of the old coins have moved. This is all coins in circulation; chill people; LambTroll is happy cause he's accumulating. Do the same!

[Tzupy]

Just closed my leveraged short and put a really low bid, just in case. See you tomorrow, it's 2.27 am, sleepy...

[tonyq]