This market it really easy to trade because there're so many emotional noobs trading it. And yes I was one of the noobs here back even before the China pump in December 2013. But I have learned a lot since then about markets.
The fact that you guys are even comparing BTC to other markets shows your lack of understanding. No one has a clue which way the price will go, and that includes the people saying down.
Indeed no one has a clue, but it would help to admit that
China still sets the price.
The Nov/2013 rally (and perhaps also the Apr/2013 one) were created by Chinese demand, and the Chinese exchanges have set the price since then. Although many of Chinese who bought coins at that time appear to have sold them, Chinese day-traders are still in control.
Since the big rally, the price has reacted almost exclusively to events that are relevant to the Chinese traders, and has completely ignored events that are relevant only to the West -- such as Dell and Microsoft "accepting bitcoin", Bitstamp being hacked, the USMS auction, Bill Gates saying that bitcoin will not succeed, and the the 70 trillion dollars that banks just invested in Coinbase.
Now, one would expect the Bitcoin media to start from that fact, and get some staff or correspondents in China to report on the state of the Chinese market so that Western traders can use that as a basis for their predictions.
But they will never do that, obviously. Bitcoin sites do not get a penny from investors or day traders, so they don't care about their fortunes at all. Their revenue comes entirely from advertising and subsidies from bitcoin enterprises, so they must suppress any news that could hurt them.
And those enterprises would hate if their prospective clients were aware about the role of China. "If you invest in our fund, rest assured that the future of your money will rest entirely on the mood of ten thousand amateur commodity traders in China, who prefer bitcoin to garlic because its price is much more volatile." "Our ETF shares are expected to yield 1000% ROI in a couple of years, as soon as we find a new market for bitcoin that is 10x the size of China's". "We are quite certain than the price of bitcoin will not drop to double digits tomorrow, because we cannot believe that the PBoC would be so mean as to further tighten the restrictions on Chinese exchanges."
So, all news and articles in the bitcoin media start from the premise that "China is irrelevant", and are careful to cultivate that misconception in the readers. Just as they will try to hide (or not even look for) the unpleasant facts about user adoption, security, miner influence, and more. Instead, they will fill the space with useless technical analysis, bogus theories like "Willy was responsible for the 2013 bubble", interviews of bitcoiners about its wonderful future, and thinly disguised addvertisements and press releases.
Hi amigo, I know we sometimes butt heads, but I don't get the feeling that you are being intentionally ignorant, just that you are trying to deal with something you don't quite understand, yet.
Please take a listen to this
http://podcast.runtogold.com/podcast/BTCK-127-2015-01-20.mp3It's an interview with a guy trying to set up a south American exchange that is beneficial to south Americans.
You are the only guy I pseudo-know that it's from that area and your analysis of this would be greatly appreciated.
Specifically the parts about bitcoin transfers allowing the local currencies to stay local, while still allowing people to transfer funds across borders.
I know I've been facetious towards you in the past, and I apologize for that. Also any thoughts from any other south Americans is welcome.
Thank you.
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