Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[tomothy]

Does this image have significance of a falling wedge which would be indicative of a possible trend reversal?
It was posted in the trading sim thread. Not mine. I just found it illuminating. I figure we could just continue longer at this stage but it still doesn't change the fact that a reversal seems to be suggested? Albeit possibly short lived due to the proliferation of shorts. Just wondering. Also wondering where those dark profits will go, i.e., back into BTC or LTC.

[bassclef]

Does this image have significance of a falling wedge which would be indicative of a possible trend reversal?
It was posted in the trading sim thread. Not mine. I just found it illuminating. I figure we could just continue longer at this stage but it still doesn't change the fact that a reversal seems to be suggested? Albeit possibly short lived due to the proliferation of shorts. Just wondering. Also wondering where those dark profits will go, i.e., back into BTC or LTC.

It's kind of a stretch. A triangle or whatever continuation pattern you'd choose to use would fit well in the area with the numbered waves, but not encompassing a buying climax on high volume. IMO if you're going to draw triangles and use them in analysis, they cannot be arbitrary. The must connect with multiple high volume areas and the price action should never "jump out of bounds" very much in order to be a valid pattern. Also the connection points should not be super far apart unless you're on a 3d or weekly chart. They are tools for you to understand and identify trading ranges and lower volume consolidation periods, not lines that simply tell you where to trade.

What many traders are missing now is the significance of the selling climax to $160, and the subsequent retest of that area. It is an enormous sign of strength for that many coins to have been transferred from weak hands to strong. I keep hearing "the downtrend is still intact!" Well, technically it is, but you'd better have a close look at that super high volume area that stopped the selling, or you're ignoring a big message the market is trying to tell you.

[SmoothCurves]

Does this image have significance of a falling wedge which would be indicative of a possible trend reversal?
It was posted in the trading sim thread. Not mine. I just found it illuminating. I figure we could just continue longer at this stage but it still doesn't change the fact that a reversal seems to be suggested? Albeit possibly short lived due to the proliferation of shorts. Just wondering. Also wondering where those dark profits will go, i.e., back into BTC or LTC.

It's kind of a stretch. A triangle or whatever continuation pattern you'd choose to use would fit well in the area with the numbered waves, but not encompassing a buying climax on high volume. IMO if you're going to draw triangles and use them in analysis, they cannot be arbitrary. The must connect with multiple high volume areas and the price action should never "jump out of bounds" very much in order to be a valid pattern. Also the connection points should not be super far apart unless you're on a 3d or weekly chart. They are tools for you to understand and identify trading ranges and lower volume consolidation periods, not lines that simply tell you where to trade.

What many traders are missing now is the significance of the selling climax to $160, and the subsequent retest of that area. It is an enormous sign of strength for that many coins to have been transferred from weak hands to strong. I keep hearing "the downtrend is still intact!" Well, technically it is, but you'd better have a close look at that super high volume area that stopped the selling, or you're ignoring a big message the market is trying to tell you.

Beautifully put. Agree 100%

[dsly]

Ema has dropped to 229 and longterm downtrend  still intact.

Whats  Ema ? you mean 219 ?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[ElectricMucus]

... His forte is computers, not economics. Obviously.

Just like satoshi...

wait, perhaps he is satoshi?!?! 

Maybe he's Mark Karpeles too and the fat boy is just a front.  DPR?

Ahhh the holy trinity of Bitcoin, it should have been only one really conflicted person, but sadly there are so many more interesting personalities.

[stereotype]

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2vbswe/regarding_the_recent_finex_lag_issue/

[samsonn25]

Ema has dropped to 229 and longterm downtrend  still intact.

Whats  Ema ? you mean 219 ?

Exponential  moving average. There are different rates. Weekly. Daily. Hourly.  they all have different lines

[samsonn25]

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averages

[tomothy]

Gentleman, thank you for the insight. These charts can look so convincing; they remind me of statistics... Paint the picture however you want...

[aztecminer]

Remember kids...

the price doesn't matter,

bad news doesn't matter,

China doesn't matter.

Nothing matters in BTCland other than pictures of honey badgers and walls of text proclaiming the NWO.

Lemme save you the time. He says that money only has value because we believe it has value. I suppose that's true in a certain context but useless. Economics professors (he's a prof) only have value because we believe they have value also. What determines MARKET value for anything is supply and demand and what determines the value of something to an individual is marginal utility. Any Econ Prof worth his salt will tell you that the first week of Econ 101.

BillyJoeAllenRedneck firefighter who can't spell his own home state correctly

And of course even those with an education are wrong, wrong, wrong.

So, make sure to keep buying BTC with your credit card...if Cletus here says its good, why worry.

Yanis Varoufakis admits he's a Marxist, which means he's still clinging to the thoroughly discredited Labor Theory of Value when it was replaced by Marginal Utility by all non-Marxist economists about a century ago.

Certain people seem to put an exorbitant amount of effort into discrediting me. Why? I'm a nobody from nowhere. What is it that I am saying that is so dangerous that it requires these ad hominem attacks?

Beware the short squeeze boys and girls. It's coming.

yoyoyo billyjoe ..  i getting my 'four punch raiders' short squeeze the beartards suit on right now....

[billyjoeallen]

What many traders are missing now is the significance of the selling climax to $160, and the subsequent retest of that area. It is an enormous sign of strength for that many coins to have been transferred from weak hands to strong. I keep hearing "the downtrend is still intact!" Well, technically it is, but you'd better have a close look at that super high volume area that stopped the selling, or you're ignoring a big message the market is trying to tell you.

I don't think most of those coins went from weak to strong hands. They went from bulls getting margin calls to people who will flip them for a quick profit. I think there is a short squeeze coming, but that doesn't mean that I think the bear market is over.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Eamorr]

220 is a MAGIC number.

[bassclef]

What many traders are missing now is the significance of the selling climax to $160, and the subsequent retest of that area. It is an enormous sign of strength for that many coins to have been transferred from weak hands to strong. I keep hearing "the downtrend is still intact!" Well, technically it is, but you'd better have a close look at that super high volume area that stopped the selling, or you're ignoring a big message the market is trying to tell you.

I don't think most of those coins went from weak to strong hands. They went from bulls getting margin calls to people who will flip them for a quick profit. I think there is a short squeeze coming, but that doesn't mean that I think the bear market is over.

Could be. But the chart doesn't lie. Bulls may have been margin called but that would have contributed to the selloff as their long liquidation would sell into market. Someone stepped in to stop the selling, cover their shorts and scoop up those coins, or else the market would have gone lower. Somebody was willing to buy in hopes to sell at a higher price later. Simple logic there.

Also important and related (and slightly off topic)... a bulls market's success is defined by how much selling (supply) is introduced into it. Conversely bear markets are successful because there is not enough buying to stop the selling and bring supply/demand into equilibrium. Now if the "Four Punch Raiders" are ultimately bullish, it makes sense to remove as much selling as possible so to not impede their pumping. They need to corner the market, essentially owning most if not all of the floating supply. When you think about this, it is logical... remove enough supply from the market--price wants to go up. Increase enough supply--price goes down. If you were bullish and trading with huge sums, you'd be annoyed if dumpers dumped into your rally too Also you wouldn't accumulate a large position out in the open, you'd do it silently, spread out over time at market bottoms. Conversely at market tops, the big money distributes slowly over time (or quickly, I've seen both) to new buyers for huge profits. When this additional supply enters the market, it crashes and the game begins again. 3600 coins introduced by miners every day is not much compared with the bats some of these guys are swinging with. And who knows what % of those 3600 coins even make it to exchanges.

I think we agree on the direction the market is ultimately headed, but in my opinion, the "Four Punch Raiders" are simply good traders who can read price/volume action, and join the other good traders on big moves. Judging from some of the sizes of their orders, they are making an absolute killing. Can't say I can complain--I have joined them. My trading lot size is not small and has increased substantially over the last few months. But that's how professional traders aim to do things, they have to accumulate from weak hands and scare the public in to selling to them, then it's easy to mark the price up later on. It's pretty predatory, but such is life. I think so many traders lose money because they simply don't know what's happening behind the scenes and don't understand why the market goes up and down so much... but watching the volume can give you a pretty good indication when the deep pockets are involved. In Wall Street these are usually pit traders, market makers, specialists--guys close to the action with great insider connections. With Bitcoin it is likely early adopters who understand the trading game, guys close to exchanges, trading syndicates, and people involved in mining circles and news sites who get market-changing announcements and rumors before anyone else.

[coinmaster222]

May see a big spike in days to come if Greece exsits the Euro and thats starting to look likely.If that happened investors would head for the Swiss Franc as a safe haven perhaps forcing Switzerland to impose currency controls.....enter Bitcoin

[Fatman3001]

Remember kids...

the price doesn't matter,

bad news doesn't matter,

China doesn't matter.

Nothing matters in BTCland other than pictures of honey badgers and walls of text proclaiming the NWO.

Lemme save you the time. He says that money only has value because we believe it has value. I suppose that's true in a certain context but useless. Economics professors (he's a prof) only have value because we believe they have value also. What determines MARKET value for anything is supply and demand and what determines the value of something to an individual is marginal utility. Any Econ Prof worth his salt will tell you that the first week of Econ 101.

BillyJoeAllenRedneck firefighter who can't spell his own home state correctly

And of course even those with an education are wrong, wrong, wrong.

So, make sure to keep buying BTC with your credit card...if Cletus here says its good, why worry.

Yanis Varoufakis admits he's a Marxist, which means he's still clinging to the thoroughly discredited Labor Theory of Value when it was replaced by Marginal Utility by all non-Marxist economists about a century ago.

Certain people seem to put an exorbitant amount of effort into discrediting me. Why? I'm a nobody from nowhere. What is it that I am saying that is so dangerous that it requires these ad hominem attacks?

Beware the short squeeze boys and girls. It's coming.

I enjoy Varoufakis but I am very aware that he is a marxist. He has an interesting perspective. And maybe that is what Europe and Greece needs for a couple of years, just to shake things up a bit. Of course he gets hung up in imaginary problems and have a lot of blind spots, he is a marxist. He sort of reminds me of the marxist/post-marxist Slavoj Zizek, who sort of floats my boat. Not for serious philosophy, just for relaxing and playing with concepts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Maex3jW0Yw8

With regards to nanobrain, it's in the nick. But I think she's the only lady-troll here; which is nice, I guess.

[Eamorr]

May see a big spike in days to come if Greece exsits the Euro and thats starting to look likely.If that happened investors would head for the Swiss Franc as a safe haven perhaps forcing Switzerland to impose currency controls.....enter Bitcoin

Doubt it. Bitcoin is becoming less and less significant (was it ever anything other than an ultra-volatile speculation?) as the days go by.

Bitcoin's market cap was never more than $13bn. It's struggling to stay above $3bn at the moment.

So, I think you severely overestimate Bitcoin's importance and/or influence.

The Greece leaving the Euro scenario that you talk about has already been priced in to the markets (i.e. gold, Swiss Franc, GBP, oil, etc.) Bitcoin? Are you mad?

[macsga]

May see a big spike in days to come if Greece exsits the Euro and thats starting to look likely.If that happened investors would head for the Swiss Franc as a safe haven perhaps forcing Switzerland to impose currency controls.....enter Bitcoin

Doubt it. Bitcoin is becoming less and less significant (was it ever anything other than an ultra-volatile speculation?) as the days go by.

Bitcoin's market cap was never more than $13bn. It's struggling to stay above $3bn at the moment.

So, I think you severely overestimate Bitcoin's importance and/or influence.

The Greece leaving the Euro scenario that you talk about has already been priced in to the markets (i.e. gold, Swiss Franc, GBP, oil, etc.) Bitcoin? Are you mad?

Excuse me, but how do you conclude into such a verdict? Gold/Oil/GBP entangled with an economy which it's debt is a 1.3% fraction of the total EU GDP? I'm sorry to spoil it, but it's not so.

[Eamorr]

May see a big spike in days to come if Greece exsits the Euro and thats starting to look likely.If that happened investors would head for the Swiss Franc as a safe haven perhaps forcing Switzerland to impose currency controls.....enter Bitcoin

Doubt it. Bitcoin is becoming less and less significant (was it ever anything other than an ultra-volatile speculation?) as the days go by.

Bitcoin's market cap was never more than $13bn. It's struggling to stay above $3bn at the moment.

So, I think you severely overestimate Bitcoin's importance and/or influence.

The Greece leaving the Euro scenario that you talk about has already been priced in to the markets (i.e. gold, Swiss Franc, GBP, oil, etc.) Bitcoin? Are you mad?

Excuse me, but how do you conclude into such a verdict? Gold/Oil/GBP entangled with an economy which it's debt is a 1.3% fraction of the total EU GDP? I'm sorry to spoil it, but it's not so.

That's right. Bitcoin is the answer.

Anyway, the magnitude of the Greek economy isn't the major worry - the major worry is contagion and the impact of Greece on the Euro project and Euro unity.