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Question: Feb. 15 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (2.6%)
<$8,500 - 6 (5.2%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 3 (2.6%)
$9,001-$9,500 - 2 (1.7%)
$9,501-$10,000 - 11 (9.6%)
$10,001-$10,500 - 29 (25.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 21 (18.3%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 14 (12.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 7 (6.1%)
>$12,000 - 10 (8.7%)
>$30,000 - 9 (7.8%)
Total Voters: 115

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21526622 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (142 posts by 32 users deleted.)
JimboToronto
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June 10, 2019, 02:32:53 AM

English food and wine are not quite the best

lol

Reminds me of that old scattergun ethnic joke:
_____

The difference between heaven and hell

In heaven
The cops are English,
The chefs are French,
The mechanics are German,
The lovers are Italian,
And the administrators are Swiss.

In hell
The cops are German,
The chefs are English,
The mechanics are French,
The lovers are Swiss,
And the administrators are Italian.
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sheenshane
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June 10, 2019, 02:51:09 AM

It's nice to walk outside and be reminded just exactly where we are heading.


It's a nice place, I think that is cold weather place not like ours always summer(hot), where this located at?

I hope we're near heading soon the price of bitcoin to the moon. Cheesy

#stronghands'19
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June 10, 2019, 03:04:18 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

All you need to do is draw a bunch of squiggles on a chart, and you can be a top analyst on tardingview now
jojo69
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June 10, 2019, 03:04:27 AM

compression check on the girl's car;

165     15      180     170



no corn for me this month

Sad
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June 10, 2019, 03:25:51 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

Im more on the bearish side right now.

65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.

Im looking for a short entry here.


Could be.  Your odds seem in the ballpark of reasonable, even though I continue towards 50/50 thinking because I hate to make any bets in the way that I approach my BTC holdings (which I prefer to assure that I am adding to my reserves, rather than gambling that I may or may not add to my reserves).

Anyhow, I merely buy if the BTC price goes down and sell if the price goes up.  Seems safe, no?

In this case, I have already sold all the way up to $9k, so in recent times I have been put into buying mode, so my buy orders have been executing as the BTC price has been going down.  

Seems to work a lot better than trying to guess, and even if I were to have more confidence - such as something above 60%, which you seem to have, and even if you are guessing in a kind of reasonable way, to me, it seems as if you are betting too... because one thing is to close a long by selling a little bit of BTC, but another extra risk is to add leverage onto the situation by entering into a short position (which is what you said that you are doing)... too scary for me, and too much gambling for my risk tolerance temperament in terms of my preference to preserve what BTCs I have worked so hard to accumulate over the past 5.5 years.

That slow buying is easy, however slow selling is more problematic, especially since some coins you bought 5.5 years ago, although it depends on whether you use FIFO or LIFO accounting (the latter is simpler, but maybe less common). FIFO would guarantee at least long term cap gains status, which is much lower in US vs short term gains that are taxed by your tax bracket.

In addition, in a case of an old coin sell, properly splitting off at least 3, maybe 4 meaningful forks is also an annoying task.

I will agree that accounting complicates matters; however, the point that I was making in my above post related to a practice that seems to be betting on one direction or another... namely down in the case that criptix was describing.

Accordingly, there have been a large number of folks who had been betting on down since April 1 and even before that - remember April 1 and crossing over the $4,200 threshold in a kind of violent upwards movement.  Thereafter, the bets continue to come in for DOWN, and yeah sooner or later the down bets are going to be correct... but are they ready to be correct?  I would not mind being able to buy some more bitcoin, but I also don't mind going to $12k before our inevitable meaningful correction takes place.

Just because we have a current BTC price correction thats gotten down to the 15% to 17% arena does not mean that we are going to get a 30% to 40% correction, which seems to be the arena that criptix is anticipating with a 65% confidence level.

I cannot help myself to continue to remain largely agnostic in my ways of thinking about short-term bitcoin price directions.

Sure, it was fair for criptix to select a price range of $6k to $9k because that seems to be going (in the ballpark) about the same amount of upwards or downwards price movement, of about $1,500 from our current price and assigning probabilities to those opposing directions... saying that it is decently higher likelihood that BTC's price is going down, rather than up.  Even though he is assigning a 15% higher likelihood off of my 50% thinking, he ends up having a 30% gap between his down prediction and his up prediction, which shows that the gap between up and down is greater than what it might first appear to be, and I just have difficulties assigning those kinds of high probabilities (even when they seem low) to predicting BTC's short term price direction - and further putting money on such a bet.
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June 10, 2019, 04:48:00 AM

It's nice to walk outside and be reminded just exactly where we are heading.


It's a nice place, I think that is cold weather place not like ours always summer(hot), where this located at?

I hope we're near heading soon the price of bitcoin to the moon. Cheesy

#stronghands'19
NY it was actually nice today, usually not too warm though.
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June 10, 2019, 05:01:20 AM

I've deleted a series of my posts from the 7th.
They sadly remain in quotes for now.
I apologise to all the good gentlemen of this thread, and will try to do better.
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June 10, 2019, 05:07:06 AM



Quote
Graph showing a measure of developer activity on Bitcoin: # of code reviews per month, for code that ended up being merged

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PYqieGQDKur2e7poxe7DD12pnmBuYxReFwNkAq8U1bo/edit#gid=643870595

Peer review is crucial for code quality, developer learning, and in Bitcoin: the continued integrity of the protocol.

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1137789958478057472




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June 10, 2019, 05:09:27 AM

Good morning WO. Bitcoin @ $7,648

Waking up at the early morning still continues 🙂
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June 10, 2019, 05:28:18 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.
You know nothing, but might end up being temporarily right just out of sheer luck. Cute.
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June 10, 2019, 05:30:33 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.
6k or 10k or 20k does not matter much for me. I am a long HODLer and I am hodling my coins until we are going to the moon.
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June 10, 2019, 05:36:41 AM

ok can't bear this any more
isn't theymos (very marginally) late with the DT1 list?
what's he cooking up now?
because this has to happen http://loyce.club/trust/ranking/1067333.html  Cool
any of our posh friends hear anything on the grapevine? LFc, nutildah, bones  Huh

I dunno, that's a good question. He is indeed late. Maybe he's re-jiggering the whole thing to put a cap on the size of DT1. Also, LoyceV didn't advertise his newly-published News of the Screws this week.
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June 10, 2019, 05:39:45 AM

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.
You know nothing, but might end up being temporarily right just out of sheer luck. Cute.

Gosh uncharacteristicly grumpy this morning. Cute

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.
6k or 10k or 20k does not matter much for me. I am a long HODLer and I am hodling my coins until we are going to the moon.

the hodl life is so much less stressful than trying to predict, let alone trade, what with worries about exchanges and constantly looking at the price; can't sleep in a position, so bad for one's health.
#hodl2019
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June 10, 2019, 05:40:04 AM

ok can't bear this any more
isn't theymos (very marginally) late with the DT1 list?
what's he cooking up now?
because this has to happen http://loyce.club/trust/ranking/1067333.html  Cool
any of our posh friends hear anything on the grapevine? LFc, nutildah, bones  Huh

I dunno, that's a good question. He is indeed late. Maybe he's re-jiggering the whole thing to put a cap on the size of DT1. Also, LoyceV didn't advertise his newly-published News of the Screws this week.
The loyce.club site is down. Is this me only or anyone else too seeing the same for the site.
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June 10, 2019, 05:43:07 AM


the hodl life is so much less stressful than trying to predict, let alone trade, what with worries about exchanges and constantly looking at the price; can't sleep in a position, so bad for one's health.
#hodl2019
I am in peace.
When price spikes I feel excitements and happy
When price falls I fell nothing knowing that this is the part of the process and if I have spare fiat I take the opportunity to buy more.

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June 10, 2019, 05:44:08 AM

is down
whole world has come crashing down
what might have been may not be
cypto is done
Last of the V8s
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June 10, 2019, 05:47:08 AM

yup, re-jiggering, he did warn


the hodl life is so much less stressful than trying to predict, let alone trade, what with worries about exchanges and constantly looking at the price; can't sleep in a position, so bad for one's health.
#hodl2019
I am in peace.
When price spikes I feel excitements and happy
When price falls I fell nothing knowing that this is the part of the process and if I have spare fiat I take the opportunity to buy more.

Nice. yup all fiat is 'spare' and should be spent on bitcoin and loved ones.
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June 10, 2019, 05:49:21 AM

is down
whole world has come crashing down
what might have been may not be
cypto is done
Crypto is rising (seriously) loyce.club is tried 🤣

Thanks for letting me know.

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June 10, 2019, 06:00:09 AM

ok can't bear this any more
isn't theymos (very marginally) late with the DT1 list?
what's he cooking up now?
because this has to happen http://loyce.club/trust/ranking/1067333.html  Cool
any of our posh friends hear anything on the grapevine? LFc, nutildah, bones  Huh

I dunno, that's a good question. He is indeed late. Maybe he's re-jiggering the whole thing to put a cap on the size of DT1. Also, LoyceV didn't advertise his newly-published News of the Screws this week.
The loyce.club site is down. Is this me only or anyone else too seeing the same for the site.

Yep, I noticed that. Down for me too. I suspect some sort of major changes are afoot.

Though not entirely related, Vod launched an interesting new tool on BPIP that keeps track of DT1 include/exclude changes:

https://bpip.org/r/dt1changes.aspx

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June 10, 2019, 06:37:51 AM
Last edit: June 10, 2019, 06:59:03 AM by Last of the V8s

oh of course.
https://reason.com/2019/06/05/if-we-told-you-neal-stephenson-invented-bitcoin-would-you-be-surprised/
everything makes sense now

Quote
Fall may not be Stephenson's best novel, but it might be his most Stephensonian.

At roughly 900 pages, it is a smorgasbord of acronyms and ideas, action and exposition, characters and subplots.

ps xhomex10 how are your Stephensonian studies coming along? Have you passed the Cert. Wafflology part yet?
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