Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[revans]

I think most people missed the boat on LTC. The smart investors realized that LTC would grow, because currencies that are new can have the most gains in the shortest amount of time, so they bought in early (not to mention that LTC is marketed as BTC's silver). Just look at BTC. A 5000% growth in one year time. BTC will never achieve that performance again in the coming years. Perhaps a 20x growth, but the growth in percentages will keep going down over time.

Because of this enormous growth in the early stages, people will be incentivized to buy coins that are still in the cents or 1 dollar range. Those coins have the possibility of achieving growth gains that are in the thousands of percentages. But right now, LTC is 20 dollars. I think its max market cap will be 500 dollars, because it doesn't give any real advantages over BTC and will thus remain a speculative instrument mostly. Those growth gains can be easily achievable with BTC, since I'm positive that we are in between the innovator phase and the early adopter phase.

It might still be worth a shot, because there are rumors that Mt. Gox will implement LTC, which will greatly increase its legitimacy. But it's up to merchants to adopt LTC besides BTC. As long as they don't do that, LTC's market cap will be limited and it's growth will only depend on speculative interest.

Right now, it might be worth looking for the next candidate after LTC, the one that has the best chance after LTC and that's still in the cents stage. If it can be ascertained for sure which is the best third coin, it would almost be a given that growth percentages of above 1000% and more will be achievable due to sheer speculative greed.

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

[jonat3]

I think most people missed the boat on LTC. The smart investors realized that LTC would grow, because currencies that are new can have the most gains in the shortest amount of time, so they bought in early (not to mention that LTC is marketed as BTC's silver). Just look at BTC. A 5000% growth in one year time. BTC will never achieve that performance again in the coming years. Perhaps a 20x growth, but the growth in percentages will keep going down over time.

Because of this enormous growth in the early stages, people will be incentivized to buy coins that are still in the cents or 1 dollar range. Those coins have the possibility of achieving growth gains that are in the thousands of percentages. But right now, LTC is 20 dollars. I think its max market cap will be 500 dollars, because it doesn't give any real advantages over BTC and will thus remain a speculative instrument mostly. Those growth gains can be easily achievable with BTC, since I'm positive that we are in between the innovator phase and the early adopter phase.

It might still be worth a shot, because there are rumors that Mt. Gox will implement LTC, which will greatly increase its legitimacy. But it's up to merchants to adopt LTC besides BTC. As long as they don't do that, LTC's market cap will be limited and it's growth will only depend on speculative interest.

Right now, it might be worth looking for the next candidate after LTC, the one that has the best chance after LTC and that's still in the cents stage. If it can be ascertained for sure which is the best third coin, it would almost be a given that growth percentages of above 1000% and more will be achievable due to sheer speculative greed.

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

It's a feedback loop. Speculative interest is fueling merchant adoption, which in turn fuels speculative interest. But the fact that there's merchant adoption is significant. It's gone way beyond just speculative interest, though it does remain the main source of growth right now. Ironically enough, I don't think BTC or any other free market coin would have ever succeeded without speculative interest.

[revans]

I think most people missed the boat on LTC. The smart investors realized that LTC would grow, because currencies that are new can have the most gains in the shortest amount of time, so they bought in early (not to mention that LTC is marketed as BTC's silver). Just look at BTC. A 5000% growth in one year time. BTC will never achieve that performance again in the coming years. Perhaps a 20x growth, but the growth in percentages will keep going down over time.

Because of this enormous growth in the early stages, people will be incentivized to buy coins that are still in the cents or 1 dollar range. Those coins have the possibility of achieving growth gains that are in the thousands of percentages. But right now, LTC is 20 dollars. I think its max market cap will be 500 dollars, because it doesn't give any real advantages over BTC and will thus remain a speculative instrument mostly. Those growth gains can be easily achievable with BTC, since I'm positive that we are in between the innovator phase and the early adopter phase.

It might still be worth a shot, because there are rumors that Mt. Gox will implement LTC, which will greatly increase its legitimacy. But it's up to merchants to adopt LTC besides BTC. As long as they don't do that, LTC's market cap will be limited and it's growth will only depend on speculative interest.

Right now, it might be worth looking for the next candidate after LTC, the one that has the best chance after LTC and that's still in the cents stage. If it can be ascertained for sure which is the best third coin, it would almost be a given that growth percentages of above 1000% and more will be achievable due to sheer speculative greed.

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

It's a feedback loop. Speculative interest is fueling merchant adoption, which in turn fuels speculative interest. But the fact that there's merchant adoption is significant. It's gone way beyond just speculative interest, though it does remain the main source of growth right now. Ironically enough, I don't think BTC or any other free market coin would have ever succeeded without speculative interest.

Would you care to venture a guess as to the daily Bitcoin transaction volume for goods and services?

[ChartBuddy]

[BitThink]

Which thread are we in? I thought I entered a wrong thread.

[KieranJones1]

It's just teasing us now.

[beetcoin]

can i ask a question? when the buy is smaller than the ask/sell number.. that means there are more people willing to sell than buy right?

[jojo69]

Now will 15.5 oz of silver ever equal 1 oz of gold again?

absolutely

[jonat3]

I think most people missed the boat on LTC. The smart investors realized that LTC would grow, because currencies that are new can have the most gains in the shortest amount of time, so they bought in early (not to mention that LTC is marketed as BTC's silver). Just look at BTC. A 5000% growth in one year time. BTC will never achieve that performance again in the coming years. Perhaps a 20x growth, but the growth in percentages will keep going down over time.

Because of this enormous growth in the early stages, people will be incentivized to buy coins that are still in the cents or 1 dollar range. Those coins have the possibility of achieving growth gains that are in the thousands of percentages. But right now, LTC is 20 dollars. I think its max market cap will be 500 dollars, because it doesn't give any real advantages over BTC and will thus remain a speculative instrument mostly. Those growth gains can be easily achievable with BTC, since I'm positive that we are in between the innovator phase and the early adopter phase.

It might still be worth a shot, because there are rumors that Mt. Gox will implement LTC, which will greatly increase its legitimacy. But it's up to merchants to adopt LTC besides BTC. As long as they don't do that, LTC's market cap will be limited and it's growth will only depend on speculative interest.

Right now, it might be worth looking for the next candidate after LTC, the one that has the best chance after LTC and that's still in the cents stage. If it can be ascertained for sure which is the best third coin, it would almost be a given that growth percentages of above 1000% and more will be achievable due to sheer speculative greed.

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

It's a feedback loop. Speculative interest is fueling merchant adoption, which in turn fuels speculative interest. But the fact that there's merchant adoption is significant. It's gone way beyond just speculative interest, though it does remain the main source of growth right now. Ironically enough, I don't think BTC or any other free market coin would have ever succeeded without speculative interest.

Would you care to venture a guess as to the daily Bitcoin transaction volume for goods and services?

I have no idea, though I've read reports that transactions do keep increasing, even though BTC is a deflationary currency. I should probably look into how they obtained those numbers.

And I keep reading every article out there. Bitpay and the like claim that transactions are increasing and I do see a news article pop up every day with merchants accepting. It looks like the growth really is genuine. IMO, the exchange rate will never permanently crash, unless the encryption has been hacked. Not even miners colluding will take it down.

[hannesnaude]

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

Context :

Of course, but the activity of non speculators is not sufficient to support current valuation or anything even close to it; even more so now that Silk Road has gone which did give Bitcoin some unique  utility in terms of accessing that market.

Yup. You were right weren't you. That valuation could not be sustained  .

[jojo69]

bubbling back up for another try

[revans]

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

Context :

Of course, but the activity of non speculators is not sufficient to support current valuation or anything even close to it; even more so now that Silk Road has gone which did give Bitcoin some unique  utility in terms of accessing that market.

Yup. You were right weren't you. That valuation could not be sustained  .

It can't. The market can certainly remain irrational for a good while yet, but longer term all these currencies are headed straight back to whence they came: zero.

[Davyd05]

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

Context :

Of course, but the activity of non speculators is not sufficient to support current valuation or anything even close to it; even more so now that Silk Road has gone which did give Bitcoin some unique  utility in terms of accessing that market.

Yup. You were right weren't you. That valuation could not be sustained  .

It can't. The market can certainly remain irrational for a good while yet, but longer term all these currencies are headed straight back to whence they came: zero.

got no coins?

[proudhon]

can i ask a question? when the buy is smaller than the ask/sell number.. that means there are more people willing to sell than buy right?

It's not that simple.  For one thing, there are more people willing to buy or sell than the number of people who have positions on the orderbook.  I may be willing to sell, but may not want to let the market know that I'm willing to sell by putting an ask/sell order on an orderbook.  Instead, I might just execute a market order and sell directly into the buy orders.  Similarly, buyers may wish to buy, but might not advertise that on the orderbook, and might, instead, buy some of the ask/sell orders sitting on the book.

[KieranJones1]

 :-XHere's a question - considering the Mt. Gox high (at the time of writing) is $985, and as far as I can tell, that's an all-time high and easily the highest of all the exchanges, does that mean that whoever places an order to buy at $1000 will be the first ever buyer of bitcoin(s) sold through an exchange at $1000+?

That's gotta be notable, right?

[MahaRamana]

:-XHere's a question - considering the Mt. Gox high (at the time of writing) is $985, and as far as I can tell, that's an all-time high and easily the highest of all the exchanges, does that mean that whoever places an order to buy at $1000 will be the first ever buyer of bitcoin(s) sold through an exchange at $1000+?

That's gotta be notable, right?

No it reached over 1000 USD in China one week ago.
But priced in USD it will be the first time and yes, will be very notable.

[KieranJones1]

Awesome. Now that you mention it, I do remember it hitting $1000 in Chinese exchanges, but this is way more exciting to follow.

Thanks for answering!

[MahaRamana]

Speculative interest is all that is driving Bitcoin. Well that and Satoshi dice.

Context :

Of course, but the activity of non speculators is not sufficient to support current valuation or anything even close to it; even more so now that Silk Road has gone which did give Bitcoin some unique  utility in terms of accessing that market.

Yup. You were right weren't you. That valuation could not be sustained  .

It can't. The market can certainly remain irrational for a good while yet, but longer term all these currencies are headed straight back to whence they came: zero.

This is maybe true, but what timeline are you talking about ?

If you could explain what is irrational about a 12 billion market cap for bitcoin based on the information available today ? Unability to understand something and rationality are two different things.

And are the current fiat currencies going back to zero before or after bitcoin ?

Value exists only in the minds of people

[explorer]

:-XHere's a question - considering the Mt. Gox high (at the time of writing) is $985, and as far as I can tell, that's an all-time high and easily the highest of all the exchanges, does that mean that whoever places an order to buy at $1000 will be the first ever buyer of bitcoin(s) sold through an exchange at $1000+?

That's gotta be notable, right?

No it reached over 1000 USD in China one week ago.
But priced in USD it will be the first time and yes, will be very notable.

So do it already 

[ChartBuddy]