Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

Here is a link to a video that lays out something that's happening in the Core GitHub right now, which is a little bit annoying to say the least.

Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?

I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.

Sadly, this has the potential to turn into a fork. I kind of hate that it's happening right now for sure, and it sort of seems like this is why we can't have nice things.

I also can't believe that I'm seriously considering switching to Knots. Considering the goofy number of nodes that I run, it's going to be a pain in the ass.

Forgive me if this has already been posted or is being discussed.

https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24

Just finished this, Valid Points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15biQH1H140

Added both videos to my "Watch Later" list. Very interesting, and (somewhat) worrying, I must say.

The thing is, Bitcoin is a human creation, and as such, it is subject to human errors and even a complete collapse if something goes terribly wrong. This is a fundamental difference between Bitcoin and naturally-created, naturally-immutable elements, such as precious metals (gold, silver), and this is the reason why I'm skeptical when changes to the Bitcoin code are proposed and implemented. To counteract this inherent disadvantage, Bitcoin has mechanisms in place, like consensus, forking, and decentralization, so that any side effects in code changes can be quickly and effectively mitigated. There have been numerous code updates over the 16+ years of Bitcoin's history, and Bitcoin is still going strong and better than ever, which shows that this system is extremely robust and failure-resistant. Still, Bitcoin Core consists of human beings, and human beings often fuck things up for various reasons.

Having said that, the ability to update the code is a major (if not the major) advantage of Bitcoin, because it allows progress, innovation, and the mitigation of future issues (think Quantum Computing attacks or other advances in cryptography).

Perhaps I should have posted this after watching the videos, but this is my initial, uninformed take on the issue. In 2017 I was totally against the block size increase (heated arguments with jbreher and all). Code disputes, conversations shutting down, potential forks, etc., just worry me. Maybe I'm just being paranoid (I do that often), or it's because I generally tend to favor a conservative ("if it ain't broke, don't fix it") approach to critical code changes. I guess Bitcoin has grown so big, that it simply cannot be allowed to collapse. Will see what the future brings. Only good things, I hope.

[OgNasty]

I just did a little math and looked over the MSTR NASDAQ inclusion data. I was a bit shocked at my conclusion. I think that Bitcoin will peak the week before MSTR is included in the S&P 500. This will likely be the week before the Q3 rebalancing that occurs on September 19th (it will be announced on September 5th kicking off the mother of all FOMO).

What shocked me about this was that it aligns perfectly with my prior prediction that the price of Bitcoin will peak on September 16th based on the 4 year cycle.

I think we could be seeing another perfect storm with Trump continuously mentioning August as a timeline to fix the tax code. Maybe we see the US government buy 200,000 BTC at the same time the S&P 500 funds are acquiring Bitcoin?

September 16th. Watch for it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

I just did a little math and looked over the MSTR NASDAQ inclusion data. I was a bit shocked at my conclusion. I think that Bitcoin will peak the week before MSTR is included in the S&P 500. This will likely be the week before the Q3 rebalancing that occurs on September 19th (it will be announced on September 5th kicking off the mother of all FOMO).

What shocked me about this was that it aligns perfectly with my prior prediction that the price of Bitcoin will peak on September 16th based on the 4 year cycle.

I think we could be seeing another perfect storm with Trump continuously mentioning August as a timeline to fix the tax code. Maybe we see the US government buy 200,000 BTC at the same time the S&P 500 funds are acquiring Bitcoin?

September 16th. Watch for it.

Bold prediction, bullish as we like it here, and decently underpinned by facts and factoids. Quoted for reference, merited for support!

[pinhead666]

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.


@ColinTCrypto
Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC

It's happening.
https://x.com/ColinTCrypto/status/1916845759799927214

https://x.com/colintcrypto/status/1917939162076074303

Definitely may to July confirm.

but not sure.....

Actually,
If this happens, it will be a truly epic story.
Although I agree with some of the arguments that Bitcoin's price is moving in the right direction, I don't know how far it will go.
From the progress I'm seeing, it doesn't seem impossible.
We're all btc lover waiting to see Bitcoin's new ATH at any time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Regarding the Arizona bill, Governor Hobbs is known to veto most of the bills, let's not get our hopes up there.

Nvidia is new to me, do you have any sources?

The US selling gold to buy bitcoin -- I believe it when I see it.

Hobbs is an incompetent idiot, but she won’t alienate Bitcoiners by vetoing this bill. It’ll pass automatically on Monday. That’s what I’m expecting.

The Nvidia rumor is all over X. If there is no truth to it, they got a lot of folks to repeat it.

The rumor I’m reading is that the United States will revalue their gold to current prices giving them a $900 billion dollar increase on their books, which they will use to sell off $100 billion and invest in Bitcoin. I think the old multiple of an investment’s effect on market cap is 15? If so, this sends us to $170K this year by itself. Add in $10 billion in short covering, $50 billion in buying from Strategy, potentially $100 billion from other large companies, billions from other governments, retail, banks… You can see the path to $444K beginning to materialize. You crazy bastards are going to get rich!

My only concern: Will coinbase (as an example for any CEX) let me sell some corn when the storm is happening/near the cycle top?
Are there any safer alternatives than selling through KYC-CEX?

[Hossain Risfa]

"mining...there are increasing costs for deep digging" ~ John Nash

The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost.

Source

[xhomerx10]

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!

 That reminds me, we couldn't even find let alone afford eggs to dye for Easter this year, so we used small potatoes instead.

[vapourminer]

My only concern: Will coinbase (as an example for any CEX) let me sell some corn when the storm is happening/near the cycle top?

hahahahja

everytime it crashes when things get good.

every. single. time.

ladders may go off but real time buy/sells?

good luck

[fredericktaylor]

EL Salvador is the only country in the world that has first embraced  Bitcoin. Pierre Rochard said that EL Salvador is doing something really great. EL Salvador has not only highlighted the academic level of its students, but also the country's leadership in terms of economic sovereignty. Rochard also said that the education system is a very important factor for the development of technologies such as Bitcoin and artificial intelligence (AI). EL Salvador has the capacity to use all the tools to use artificial intelligence through technology.

source of image: https://x.com/ESTRANSLATED/status/1918275181400805509?t=19

[hisslyness]

Regarding the Arizona bill, Governor Hobbs is known to veto most of the bills, let's not get our hopes up there.

Nvidia is new to me, do you have any sources?

The US selling gold to buy bitcoin -- I believe it when I see it.

Hobbs is an incompetent idiot, but she won’t alienate Bitcoiners by vetoing this bill. It’ll pass automatically on Monday. That’s what I’m expecting.

The Nvidia rumor is all over X. If there is no truth to it, they got a lot of folks to repeat it.

The rumor I’m reading is that the United States will revalue their gold to current prices giving them a $900 billion dollar increase on their books, which they will use to sell off $100 billion and invest in Bitcoin. I think the old multiple of an investment’s effect on market cap is 15? If so, this sends us to $170K this year by itself. Add in $10 billion in short covering, $50 billion in buying from Strategy, potentially $100 billion from other large companies, billions from other governments, retail, banks… You can see the path to $444K beginning to materialize. You crazy bastards are going to get rich!

My only concern: Will coinbase (as an example for any CEX) let me sell some corn when the storm is happening/near the cycle top?
Are there any safer alternatives than selling through KYC-CEX?

I think the biggest issue with be liquidity…

Depending on your total value, you might need to start developing an OTC (KYC) relationship… when the time comes you can make the call. Instead of relying on CEX platforms that doesn’t scale during peak demands!

This will be epic!, the amount of bot/arb trades will totally crash the weaker platforms! They never learn from the past!

[Paashaas]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!

You mean 2 or 3? The profligacy... some people are shameless!

yolo

[Gachapin]

I just did a little math and looked over the MSTR NASDAQ inclusion data. I was a bit shocked at my conclusion. I think that Bitcoin will peak the week before MSTR is included in the S&P 500. This will likely be the week before the Q3 rebalancing that occurs on September 19th (it will be announced on September 5th kicking off the mother of all FOMO).

What shocked me about this was that it aligns perfectly with my prior prediction that the price of Bitcoin will peak on September 16th based on the 4 year cycle.

I think we could be seeing another perfect storm with Trump continuously mentioning August as a timeline to fix the tax code. Maybe we see the US government buy 200,000 BTC at the same time the S&P 500 funds are acquiring Bitcoin?

September 16th. Watch for it.

there is some chance that the cycles as we know them won't occur anymore... we might go up constantly over the next 2-3 years or so

[Gachapin]

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!

 That reminds me, we couldn't even find let alone afford eggs to dye for Easter this year, so we used small potatoes instead.

pretty sure the kids appreciated it....