Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Triple top is on the way.

Better yet a double double top.

109-112


166-167

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

So do we think the 109-111 zone was just a double top like the last cycle and it's downhill from here on out till the next having?
or...
Are we building a launch pad for the next link up?

Odds are probably less than 30% that $112k was the top for this cycle, and probably less than 45% that $130k or less would be the top for this cycle.. but yeah, of course, none of us can have very high levels of confidence, even though I think that odds for up, including that there better be greater than 0.5% for $1.5 million or greater as I had suggested to be the case in December 2021 for the end of that cycle (which had surprisingly ended up ending right around the time of my posting those predictions..

It seems that at this moment we cannot ascertain these odds with any certainty, albeit the numbers you posted are overall possible.
It could be 30% or 1% or 99%.
Taking bitcoin by itself-sure, but it ain't the whole story rn.

Yeah but so what?

Aren't you stating the obvious  when you are proclaiming that there are all kinds of possible scenarios?

You have to also recognize/appreciate that some scenarios are more likely than others, and if you are proclaiming 1% odds on something that I believe is closer to 50/50 (like my February-ish bet with WatChe), then our opinions differ to a great enough extent that it becomes bettable.

Any of us who assign probabilities to various events into the future, we are giving our own opinion in regards to such odds and taking everything that we know and don't know into account, and surely some things we just don't know that we don't know which can affect the probabilities, too.  Surely you are going to likely come up with different numbers than me, and if our spreads become high enough, we might gravitate into bettable territory.

If you are proclaiming that in fact it could be anything, then even if you are theoretically correct, you are acting like an uninformed person off the street who does not have any clues about bitcoin.  Both of us know that you are not uninformed about bitcoin, even though sometimes I criticize you for being too distracted by bitcoin as if it were some mature asset and to be also distracted by macro factors.. so we can differ on some of those ideas and frameworks about how to think about bitcoin and its price dynamics.

There may well be 75% of the WO regulars who are bullish about bitcoin, and even the current poll shows ONLY 4% of respondents proclaiming $110k as the top for this cycle... and sure, the poll might not be completely representative, but still we can get some ideas about directionally how we might feel, yet if we get too much into specifics, then we are likely going to start to argue more, yet our arguments might not even rise to the level of bettable, since we might directionally agree yet not disagree so much about specifics that we would want to actually wager a bet on the extent to which our opinions differ.

Another thing is that we cannot just throw our hands up and proclaim that the future is not knowable and then throw out a whole bunch of numbers in regards to what it could be, so even if you are correct that the future could be any of those numbers, I am not going to agree with your characterization that it could be anything, then if you are telling me that the odds are 90% in favor or 90% against the ATH being reached in June, then I am going to call you a looney and demand to bet with you on what I consider to be your outrageous claims and/or beliefs.

Thus, let's get to the point.  Are you proclaiming extreme scenarios such as greater than 90% or less than 10% so that you and I can bet?

I recall you also sometimes proclaiming that I never have an opinion on anything, and criticizing me for being 50/50 on a lot of bitcoin related matters, which surely I am somewhat guilty of frequently taking such a 50/50 position, yet even when I am 50/50 on some propositions, I still may well be willing to take a bet if someone is claiming 10% or 90% or greater about the same thing that I am feeling 50/50 about.

Triple top is on the way.
Better yet a double double top.
109-112

166-167

And "we" got Phil talking in riddles, too.

 

Even though anything is possible, I have difficulties considering anything less than $140k as a top for this cycle, even if the end of the cycle could drag out into the first or second quarter of 2026..  and that would be pretty fucking bearish if we ONLY ended up with a top that ended up being less than $140k and ending in the first or second quarter of 2026.  Holy fucking shit... We have 10s of companies (and even various governments) declaring that they are going to start to buy (and hoard) bitcoin, yet some folks think that supra $200k (a mere doubling from here) is overly bullish and they are having difficulties imagining it... and it seems that if for some reason if the cycle peaks at $140k or less any time before the second quarter of 2026, then surely there must be some really sophisticated fractional reserve practices in progress. since it is difficult to imagine all of the seeming demand not pushing up the price of this actually fixed quantity asset.  And, at the same time, we still have 7 months left in 2025, so quite a bit can happen in 7 months, too... which even $200k seems overly bearish... while at the same time, each of us should be accepting that a wide variety of scenarios could end up playing out... some of the scenarios bullish and some of them bearish.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

So do we think the 109-111 zone was just a double top like the last cycle and it's downhill from here on out till the next having?
or...
Are we building a launch pad for the next link up?

Odds are probably less than 30% that $112k was the top for this cycle, and probably less than 45% that $130k or less would be the top for this cycle.. but yeah, of course, none of us can have very high levels of confidence, even though I think that odds for up, including that there better be greater than 0.5% for $1.5 million or greater as I had suggested to be the case in December 2021 for the end of that cycle (which had surprisingly ended up ending right around the time of my posting those predictions..

It seems that at this moment we cannot ascertain these odds with any certainty, albeit the numbers you posted are overall possible.
It could be 30% or 1% or 99%.
Taking bitcoin by itself-sure, but it ain't the whole story rn.

Yeah but so what?

Aren't you stating the obvious  when you are proclaiming that there are all kinds of possible scenarios?

You have to also recognize/appreciate that some scenarios are more likely than others, and if you are proclaiming 1% odds on something that I believe is closer to 50/50 (like my February-ish bet with WatChe), then our opinions differ to a great enough extent that it becomes bettable.

Any of us who assign probabilities to various events into the future, we are giving our own opinion in regards to such odds and taking everything that we know and don't know into account, and surely some things we just don't know that we don't know which can affect the probabilities, too.  Surely you are going to likely come up with different numbers than me, and if our spreads become high enough, we might gravitate into bettable territory.

If you are proclaiming that in fact it could be anything, then even if you are theoretically correct, you are acting like an uninformed person off the street who does not have any clues about bitcoin.  Both of us know that you are not uninformed about bitcoin, even though sometimes I criticize you for being too distracted by bitcoin as if it were some mature asset and to be also distracted by macro factors.. so we can differ on some of those ideas and frameworks about how to think about bitcoin and its price dynamics.

There may well be 75% of the WO regulars who are bullish about bitcoin, and even the current poll shows ONLY 4% of respondents proclaiming $110k as the top for this cycle... and sure, the poll might not be completely representative, but still we can get some ideas about directionally how we might feel, yet if we get too much into specifics, then we are likely going to start to argue more, yet our arguments might not even rise to the level of bettable, since we might directionally agree yet not disagree so much about specifics that we would want to actually wager a bet on the extent to which our opinions differ.

Another thing is that we cannot just throw our hands up and proclaim that the future is not knowable and then throw out a whole bunch of numbers in regards to what it could be, so even if you are correct that the future could be any of those numbers, I am not going to agree with your characterization that it could be anything, then if you are telling me that the odds are 90% in favor or 90% against the ATH being reached in June, then I am going to call you a looney and demand to bet with you on what I consider to be your outrageous claims and/or beliefs.

Thus, let's get to the point.  Are you proclaiming extreme scenarios such as greater than 90% or less than 10% so that you and I can bet?

I recall you also sometimes proclaiming that I never have an opinion on anything, and criticizing me for being 50/50 on a lot of bitcoin related matters, which surely I am somewhat guilty of frequently taking such a 50/50 position, yet even when I am 50/50 on some propositions, I still may well be willing to take a bet if someone is claiming 10% or 90% or greater about the same thing that I am feeling 50/50 about.

The numbers you shown are quite reasonable.
What I was saying is that I cannot assign a probability for things to go 'as expected' (which is your scenario that I want to agree with) vs "not as expected", which is, I posit, currently incalculable. There is, definitely, nothing to base the bet on right now.

It's just a strange feeling of discontent that I currently have, but maybe it will go away in a day or two.
Who knows, maybe it is because of a nagging dip despite of tremendous bullishness or something else entirely.

[Inior]

Metaplanet still making some aggressive move, what then are you still waiting for? It's a buy! buy! buy! For me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

The numbers you shown are quite reasonable.
What I was saying is that I cannot assign a probability for things to go 'as expected' (which is your scenario that I want to agree with) vs "not as expected", which is, I posit, currently incalculable. There is, definitely, nothing to base the bet on right now.

I doubt that any of us have high expectations that even our base case scenario will play out, since many things can happen to cause some aspect of our assumptions to no longer warrant the base case scenario, and we even likely realize that it is not uncommon for minority scenarios to end up playing out.  Sure, if we just ballparkedly call a direction, then we might be able to assign some kind of a majority/minority kind of odds of yes either it happens or it does not happen, yet if we try to drill down into specifics in regards to what the BTC price will be on July 23, then we are opened up to a lot of variance, even if we might be allowed to frame the July 23 price in $1k ranges or maybe $2k ranges.

What will be the price on July 23?

1) Below $91k
2) Between $91k and $93k
3) Between $93k and $95k
4) Between $95k and $97k
5) Between $97k and $99k
6) Between $99k and $101k
7) Between $101k and $103k
8.) Between $103k and $105k
9) Between $105k and $107k
10) Between $107k and $109k
11) Between $109k and $111k
12) Between $111k and $113k
13) Between $113k and $115k
14) Between $115k and $117k
15) Between $117k and $119k
16) Between $119k and $121k
17) Above $121k

The more options that I give, then the lower percentage assignment of each, and the more likely that none of the scenarios holds a majority, yet there could be some price ranges that are considered to be more probable than others.

It's just a strange feeling of discontent that I currently have, but maybe it will go away in a day or two.
Who knows, maybe it is because of a nagging dip despite of tremendous bullishness or something else entirely.

If we zoom out, we have not had very many major corrections since our low of $74,434 in early April, so even with various kinds of bullish news happenings, it still can become difficult to have BTC prices go sraight up without various corrections along the way. Yeah, sure, we all get excited when we cross into new ATH prices, yet we cannot expect those to be ongoingly UP without some pauses along the way, and even pauses that seem contrary to the expectations of the more bullish of the HODLers.. also the Blackrock ETF has ONLY had one negative inflow day since April 9th, also.. so even if there have been various ups and downs along the way, the Blackrock ETF (through their clients) is not afraid to continue to accumulate coins..  I doubt that our Uppity trend is changing, even if we might be experiencing some temporary pausing and seeming uncertainties.

I did a quick perusal of my own buy/sell orders, and largely I have had not had any buy orders fill in the last two months either, they have just been sell order after sell order filling (except the last day I had a buy order fill), and the reason for that is because the BTC price has hardly dipped in the past two months. 

Do I give a shit about only having sell orders filling and no buy orders filling?  Hardly.   You already know that I have made a conclusion that I have too many bitcoin.  Accordingly, I am selling from the overaccumulated amount, and my whole system is set up for the possibility that the BTC price just goes straight to $350k and higher without any corrections.. yet inevitably there are going to be corrections along the way, yet my system assumes no corrections along the way.. and I have set the sell amounts in such a way that I am o.k. with the worse case (or would it be best case?) scenario of ONLY up and no corrections along the way.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

A new month begins,
And I just can't help myself.
ATH in June?

Hahahahahaha

You seem to be self-censoring in at least two ways.  need I count them?

I will say:  "Just say 'no' to self-censoring."

Tell "us" how you really feel.  

Well, I succeeded.

In making you (one of you, at least) laugh!

What do you think? ATH in June?

I think that the odds are greater than 50/50 for an ATH happening in June and maybe even approaching 60%, yet I am not sure the idea of an ATH in June is quite bettable unless someone were to be quite adamant against it happening and willing to give me odds for their betting against it.  

I would also be willing to bet against someone who might proclaim greater than 90% odds of a BTC ATH happening in June.  Any of these would be fun bets and not necessary for a lot of money.

I agree. My guess for the month of June is a modest 60% (or thereabouts) odds for an ATH. June just doesn't feel the same, especially since ATH was achieved in May. Last month I just felt (you may call it a gut feeling) that it would happen, as it did. This month is different. I don't get the same vibes.

The odds would be significantly higher if the time horizon was expanded to Q3 or even EOY. But, as you know, I don't really like to bet on such things, so I won't give any numbers.

Let's just say that this year will be a good one for Bitcoiners (even better than it already has been).

Edit - Grammar.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Greyhats]

Smelly poopy pants
Is what he smelled when it soared
Should he have bought more?

#sundayhaiku

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I agree. My guess for the month of June is a modest 60% (or thereabouts) odds for an ATH. June just doesn't feel the same, especially since ATH was achieved in May. Last month I just felt (you may call it a gut feeling) that it would happen, as it did. This month is different. I don't get the same vibes.

The odds would be significantly higher if the time horizon is expanded to Q3 or even EOY. But, as you know, I don't really like to bet on such things, so I won't give any numbers.

Let's just say that this year will be a good one for Bitcoiners (even better than it already has been).

I recall that both in 2017 and in 2021, I was thinking that the bull run was not over yet, and by the way, I also thought that in 2013, even though I was still brand new to bitcoin.

In other words, each time I get the sense that the bull run is not yet over, and each time I am pretty much forced to admit that the bull run is over, yet my admission ONLY ends up coming like 6-9 months later after the high had already been in and we are in the doldrums of lots of uncertainty about any return.

Therefore, my question to you concerns what you would consider the odds to be that this cycle extends into Quarter 1 or Quarter 2 of 2026? 

Maybe within my question, we can already presume that $112k is not going to be the peak for this cycle, and perhaps we can presume that one of the most bearish of cycles would be a $140k or lower high... ...

Accordingly, there are a quite a few other scenarios if we are tentatively presuming the high price for the cycle would be at least getting above $140k.. at some point.. but then  how far does it drag out and are there greater than 50/50 odds that the actual high price of the cycle is reached in either quarter 1 or 2 or later in 2026 rather than being reached in quarter 3 or quarter 4 of 2025.

I think that I am just going to continue to follow my normal system. .whether the high is in quarter 3 or 4 of 2025 or quarter 1, 2 or later in 2026.

I am also not going to suggest supercycle or the end of the cycles, even if the high were to come somewhere in 2026 rather than 2025.

Another thing that I cannot accept as a proposal is that bitcoin is going to suddenly transform into some kind of a stable asset, and so I retain a bit of a presumption of the continuances of blow off tops, even if the blowoff top ends ups getting stifled like the 2021 cycle did.. yet there is a chance that this particular cycle ends up having a blow off top that is greater than the 2021 blow off top based partly on ongoing over supression of the BTC prices, so in some sense it has to catch up to "where it should have had been" (and yeah, I know saying "where it should have had been" hardly makes any sense since we should be imagining bitcoin from the "is" and not from some fantasy "ought.")

One more point of clarification that I would like to make is that I consider the lift off point for the 2017 run to have had been around $250 in October-ish of 2015.  I consider the lift off for the 2021 run to have had been around $4,200 in April 2019.  For this lift off, I consider the right around $27k price of October 2023.  In 2017 we had a total break out of 78x.  In 2021 we had a total break out of about 16.5x.   So far we have only gotten 4.2x... I understand the idea of diminishing returns, yet I don't consider it unreasonable to expected around 16x or more from this cycle... which would be $432k - which seems to be a lot, especially when I was considering a top of around $333k to make it less likely that we will necessary have to retest sub $100k.. but a lot of this is out of my ass... and I suppose anything between $140k and $432k still seems reasonable.. and perhaps having greater than 30% odds of happening.. and my ongoingly talking about odds for various uppity price ranges almost compels me to get working on my % assignments for various Upside scenarios since I can recognize some differences developing in my current ideas as compared with [ur=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593l]my 2021 assignments of upside probabilities[/url].

Smelly poopy pants
Is what he smelled when it soared
Should he have bought more?

#sundayhaiku

Oh my!!!!!

Hopefully you are not referring to any actual person that "we" know.

Since many of "us" should recognize and appreciate that even though whimpy might have had worked in 2015 or earlier, "we" cannot be contemplating whimpiness as a good current practice, which means that being as aggressive as we are able to be without overdoing it is a good practice, even though in 10-15 years down the road, even the "whimpy" buyer of  the past few years would still end up doing a lot better than the guy who is just getting started in the future when he could have had already gotten started years earlier.. maybe not 2015, but at least 2021-ish.... I am going by your forum registration date Greyhats..... .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

A short story

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

A short story

man thats a fancy looking crack pipe. back in the pre BTC days we used nip bottles and tinfoil