so, are we at the running around in circles whilst yelling "OH NOES!!" at the top of our lungs point of the cycle yet?
Sure doesn’t feel like it. Most people still think this is an opportunity to buy the dip. I think when we hit sub-$80K we will see some panic. You have to realize that most people didn’t think we were in a bull market until we hit $100K even though it started at $16K. Similarly, most people won’t realize we are in a bear market until substantial losses have been realized, even though it started at $126K.
Since you had also mentioned somewhere in the $50ks and maybe even lower than that as being something close to inevitable in the near future and during this particular dip, I will bet you that we never see below $65k ever.. Never ever again.
Another event of leveraged longs liquidated.
4 year cycle is dead that should be obvious by now.
Stop shitting in your pants with diarrhea.
This Is still a bull market.
It still seems premature to determine the 4-year cycle as dead, to the extent that any of us might have any kind of an exact definition for how it needs to play out.. yet otherwise I agree with the implication that UPpity is not over, even though there is likely some taking advantage of sentiment that is based on the 4-year cycle being dead and also the top is in.. and that sentiment could take us into the mid $90ks -ish.
some have not given up yet... good
WO full of cyclist bears nowadays...
Do you think that the evidence is ambivalent? I frequently suggest that the bull market is not here yet until about 6 months after the top is already in.. so it is not new for me.
In 2014, I did not give up until around December or so when we first went to $200 (or was it below $200 for the first time (that might have been in early January 2015).. which gosh right around a year after our late 2013 top.
In 2018, my giving in was similar, I did not give up until the November dump that was around the Bcash/Bcash SV forkening dispute dumps.. that finally took us below $6k after testing it right around 6 times. So that was right around a year after the top too.
Maybe in 2022, I was forced to give up early, since it happened in May 2022 after the first part of the Terra/Luna dump...so that one was ONLY about 5-ish months after that particular top.
This time, who knows? We cannot know in advance, and I am not trying to be unrealistic in my apparent inabilities to figure out when the top is in. I doubt that I am worse off financially for my way of going about these matters - even though we are not supposed to be competing with each other since our individual circumstances are supposed to help to justify how we treat our bitcoin holdings.
Even if we look at OgNasty, even if he might get part of this correct, he also sold a bunch in around the upper $50ks right around the same time that Germany was selling their 50k BTC in order to buy the Cyber truck he is so proud of... It is difficult to imagine that he is doing better than a mostly HODLer who sells whenever.. Even if I were to shave some off now, It would be nearly 2x higher than OgNasty sold in order to buy his Cybertruck..
Part of the problem is that he brags but he spins facts too, and sure maybe he will be right this time. He was calling for sales around $108k.. but then he retroactively spins it and says that he was calling for sales around $117k.. not that it matters that much.. but it is a bit of an annoying thing to deal with, even though we frequently get members with differing points of views, and some proclaim that they have acted in accordance with their sentiment.. but then sometimes we will see some of them disappear when they sell too much too soon, yet we will see some others to massage the facts after the price moves against their earlier assertions and say that they ONLY sold a small percentage of their BTC stash, even though earlier they had been calling for others to sell around the same price as them, even though such selling did not end up working out so well.
some have not given up yet... good
WO full of cyclist bears nowadays...
There will always be bagholders. I don’t want to hurt people’s feelings though.
There are some bullish events in the pipeline in the near future as well that could keep
us above $100K. The government shutdown ending and Michael Saylor buying more BTC with funds from his new STRE offering.
Of course, you are waffling all over the place and calling for down even though at the same time leaving some room to proclaim that it could go up, too.
Poll
