Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCETFInvestor]

It's begun!

 Cuban's president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, has acknowledged he and his centralized administration have been in talks with Trump officials concerning the country's future...  

The most worrying circumstance in a hypothetical U.S. 'friendly' takeover of Cuba is the combination of regional destabilization, humanitarian risk, and great‑power escalation - each of these emerges clearly from current environment surrounding Cuba.

Any instability in Cuba would likely produce a massive maritime migration wave toward Florida, overwhelming U.S. border and humanitarian systems. There have been talks of plans for documentation and governance planning to take place outside the United States.

A coalition of over 30 Cuban opposition and resistance organizations met in Miami, Florida as recent as this month, March 2026, to sign a "Freedom Accord". This document, which was sent to the U.S. State Department, outlines a roadmap for a post-communism Cuba, signaling that planning for a new government is heavily driven by the diaspora located outside of Cuba and the U.S. mainland.

A forced regime change or takeover could trigger mass displacement, food insecurity, and a breakdown of essential services. U.S. pressure has already worsened Cuba’s economic crisis, making the population extremely vulnerable to shocks.


Current migration data and expert analysis suggest a significant portion of the population is already seeking to leave Cuba due to a deepening humanitarian and economic crisis.

As of March 2026, Cuba is experiencing its largest exodus in history. Over 1 million people (more than 10% of the population) have fled Cuba since late 2021. The current population of Cuba is estimated at approximately 10.9 million people.

There is a high intent to flee Cuba according to a December 2025 poll by the Social Rights Observatory which found that over three in four Cubans (approximately 75%–78%) want to flee the country due to crumbling economic conditions.

However, there is a 'wait-and-see' demographic in which those most likely to stay are older generations with deep ties to the island or those who lack the resources to emigrate.

Current reports indicate that even Cubans in Miami express a desire to return to the island only after "the right conditions exist". This suggests a 'wait-and-see' approach is more common among the diaspora than those currently suffering on the island. It is thought that if the U.S. in a 'friendly' takeover could improve living standards, chances are good Cuba could become a very desirable place to live.

Could Cuba become a country owned by the U.S. - like Greenland was talked about recently?  Stay tuned Greenlanders!  Canada - pay attention! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

Nighty Night, Mr. Bear, it's time for you to hibernate. And Mr. Bull, it's time to wake up and run really fast!

With a red hue on the bear side and a green hue on the bull side, it would be perfect. Although, bull+red makes sense too.

I like her new magic wand(s) (with the crystals). Very Myst-like (if you know, you know).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[vapourminer]

everyone slacking off this morning, even the squirrels are sleeping in

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BTCETFInvestor]

An interesting analysis!  

Bitcoin Correction Hits 159 Days: Here Is How This Cycle Compares to 2017 and 2021

Bitcoin's 2025 correction spans 159 days, still far shorter than the 1,180-day recovery seen in 2017.


• Bitcoin marked its 2025 cycle top at $126,230 on October 6, starting a 159-day correction phase.

• The 2017 cycle took 1,180 days to reach a new ATH, while 2021 required 1,093 days to recover.

• For the first time ever, Bitcoin reached a new ATH in 2025 without a halving event preceding it.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 disrupted historical halving-driven market cycle patterns.


Bitcoin’s 159-Day Correction in Historical Context:

The cycle top for Bitcoin was recorded on October 6 at approximately $126,230. Since that date, the correction has extended to 159 days based on current market data. Many investors view this period as prolonged, though historical comparisons offer a contrasting view. Prior Bitcoin cycles consistently required far longer recovery timelines before reaching new highs.


Comparative data spanning Bitcoin’s most notable market cycles:

• The 2017 cycle required 1,180 days before Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high.

• The 2021 cycle required 1,093 days to reach that same milestone.

• The current 2025 cycle, by comparison, has so far lasted only 849 days from its peak.

Looking at these numbers, a clear trend toward shorter cycle durations becomes apparent. The time between Bitcoin’s all-time highs has been consistently shrinking across each major cycle.

This pattern points to Bitcoin’s continued maturation as a widely held global financial asset. For long-term holders who accumulate steadily rather than trade short-term moves, this trend is encouraging. It also suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery pace may continue to accelerate in future cycles.

When comparing previous corrections or bear markets from earlier cycles, it actually took much longer before a new ATH was reached.

► 2017 : 1180 days before a new ATH
► 2021 : 1093 days
► 2025 : 849 days

The positive takeaway is that the periodicity between ATHs appears to be shortening as Bitcoin continues to mature.

It is also interesting to note that halvings had always preceded a new ATH, except in the 2025 cycle which broke that pattern.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 clearly disrupted this historical cyclicality. Analysts do not think the halving itself is the main driver behind the creation of a new ATH. The end of bear market trends are usually already well advanced before the halving occurs.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Halvings, ETFs, and Bitcoin’s Long-Term Supply Dynamics:

• A key observation in the current Bitcoin cycle is the break from the established halving pattern. Historically, a Bitcoin halving had always come before a new all-time high in each prior cycle.

• The 2025 cycle broke that precedent for the first time in Bitcoin’s recorded history. This departure has prompted analysts to revisit traditional assumptions around halving-driven market cycles.

• Analysts directly link this pattern disruption to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. These financial products introduced institutional demand that did not follow traditional halving-driven market cycles.

• The ETFs altered the timing dynamics that many traders and analysts had previously relied on. As a result, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high without waiting for a halving event to serve as a catalyst. Analysts think government reception will improve adoption resulting in tighter supply and shorter timing dynamics for Bitcoin's future ATHs.

• Despite the disrupted pattern, the halving continues to play a reduced role in Bitcoin’s broader supply picture. Each halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, gradually cutting the selling pressure from miners.

• Over extended periods, this steady reduction in supply decreases Bitcoin’s overall inflation rate. This mechanism remains a structural support for Bitcoin’s long-term price performance, independent of short-term cycle behavior.

[philipma1957]

An interesting analysis!  

Bitcoin Correction Hits 159 Days: Here Is How This Cycle Compares to 2017 and 2021

Bitcoin's 2025 correction spans 159 days, still far shorter than the 1,180-day recovery seen in 2017.


• Bitcoin marked its 2025 cycle top at $126,230 on October 6, starting a 159-day correction phase.

• The 2017 cycle took 1,180 days to reach a new ATH, while 2021 required 1,093 days to recover.

• For the first time ever, Bitcoin reached a new ATH in 2025 without a halving event preceding it.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 disrupted historical halving-driven market cycle patterns.


Bitcoin’s 159-Day Correction in Historical Context:

The cycle top for Bitcoin was recorded on October 6 at approximately $126,230. Since that date, the correction has extended to 159 days based on current market data. Many investors view this period as prolonged, though historical comparisons offer a contrasting view. Prior Bitcoin cycles consistently required far longer recovery timelines before reaching new highs.


Comparative data spanning Bitcoin’s most notable market cycles:

• The 2017 cycle required 1,180 days before Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high.

• The 2021 cycle required 1,093 days to reach that same milestone.

• The current 2025 cycle, by comparison, has so far lasted only 849 days from its peak.

Looking at these numbers, a clear trend toward shorter cycle durations becomes apparent. The time between Bitcoin’s all-time highs has been consistently shrinking across each major cycle.

This pattern points to Bitcoin’s continued maturation as a widely held global financial asset. For long-term holders who accumulate steadily rather than trade short-term moves, this trend is encouraging. It also suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery pace may continue to accelerate in future cycles.

When comparing previous corrections or bear markets from earlier cycles, it actually took much longer before a new ATH was reached.

► 2017 : 1180 days before a new ATH
► 2021 : 1093 days
► 2025 : 849 days

The positive takeaway is that the periodicity between ATHs appears to be shortening as Bitcoin continues to mature.

It is also interesting to note that halvings had always preceded a new ATH, except in the 2025 cycle which broke that pattern.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 clearly disrupted this historical cyclicality. Analysts do not think the halving itself is the main driver behind the creation of a new ATH. The end of bear market trends are usually already well advanced before the halving occurs.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Halvings, ETFs, and Bitcoin’s Long-Term Supply Dynamics:

• A key observation in the current Bitcoin cycle is the break from the established halving pattern. Historically, a Bitcoin halving had always come before a new all-time high in each prior cycle.

• The 2025 cycle broke that precedent for the first time in Bitcoin’s recorded history. This departure has prompted analysts to revisit traditional assumptions around halving-driven market cycles.

• Analysts directly link this pattern disruption to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. These financial products introduced institutional demand that did not follow traditional halving-driven market cycles.

• The ETFs altered the timing dynamics that many traders and analysts had previously relied on. As a result, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high without waiting for a halving event to serve as a catalyst. Analysts think government reception will improve adoption resulting in tighter supply and shorter timing dynamics for Bitcoin's future ATHs.

• Despite the disrupted pattern, the halving continues to play a reduced role in Bitcoin’s broader supply picture. Each halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, gradually cutting the selling pressure from miners.

• Over extended periods, this steady reduction in supply decreases Bitcoin’s overall inflation rate. This mechanism remains a structural support for Bitcoin’s long-term price performance, independent of short-term cycle behavior.

The correction ended the day we hit 71k

59k to 71k is plus 20% so we are in the beginning of a new bull run.

Of course it is a bare minimum to qualify. But it is plus  20% so if we float around at 71k or so it is baby bull beginning  not correction.

With Iran popping drones and missiles all over the middle east many are stacking wealth into btc since you can blow up a house you can blow up a painting but you can't blow up btc if it is stored correctly.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

fast sandwich made for lunch time.

here is some sat morning f.u.d.



https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-threatens-irans-oil-044416352.html

so Iran still doing missiles at random spots across the Middle East.






me a rich guy in the Middle East I am buying corn as I can stash it in the clouds safely

thus btc go up.


Still sucks if you live anywhere in the middle east.

[cAPSLOCK]

Nighty Night, Mr. Bear, it's time for you to hibernate. And Mr. Bull, it's time to wake up and run really fast!

With a red hue on the bear side and a green hue on the bull side, it would be perfect. Although, bull+red makes sense too.

I like her new magic wand(s) (with the crystals). Very Myst-like (if you know, you know).

That's funny. When I made it, I was actually considering changing the colors of the things exactly as you say. But I was just messing around and I had just been messing around the whole time.

[Lucius]

fast sandwich made for lunch time.

here is some sat morning f.u.d.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-threatens-irans-oil-044416352.html

so Iran still doing missiles at random spots across the Middle East.

me a rich guy in the Middle East I am buying corn as I can stash it in the clouds safely

thus btc go up.

Still sucks if you live anywhere in the middle east.

When I think that countries that have so much money sit like clay pigeons and wait for rockets and drones instead of responding to attacks with the same force. Honestly, I expected that Iran's military capability would be pretty much destroyed by now, but they have obviously been preparing for decades for what is happening to them right now.

I read that there is mention of the possibility of US and Israeli special forces breaking into underground facilities and trying to seize or destroy enriched uranium, which would probably lead to the end of the attack.