Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JSRAW]

#staycalm
"Bitcoin charts : I don't want to jinx it but the year to date candle is green!"

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1247281669347786752

[1714994473]

1714994473

[JSRAW]

----------
Of course I'd have to change citizenship and they probably won't let me.

Welcome to Bermuda triangle. no need to change anything.

~snip~

I could lie to you, but in essence, I tend to share details that are not really Opsec oriented... even though I mentioned a lil doggie, recently.... so from now on, when you see someone who looks like me with a lil doggie, you will know who it is.

[Ibian]

One and a third million. And people are starting to come out again around here.

Isolation can't continue forever. However bad this plague turns out to be, it will pass but the potential cultural impact could hang around for a long time.

Why do the chinese eat almost literally anything, including live animals or cooking their food with slop from sewers? Because their ancestors were starving and the most picky eaters died first.

And now the entire world is locked down. Just how bad could things get fifty years from now if we keep going like this for too long?

[infofront]

Check out this graph from JP Morgan:


This is based partially on the second wave emerging in China. Are we going to keep doing these lockdowns every couple of months until a vaccine arrives?

[JSRAW]

Complete lock down for Hot spot areas and for others bit relax lock down should do the trick.

[Ibian]

Check out this graph from JP Morgan:


This is based partially on the second wave emerging in China. Are we going to keep doing these lockdowns every couple of months until a vaccine arrives?

Depends entirely on how bad it turns out to be. The way things are looking right now literally the entire world is going to get infected with maybe a 1% net death rate when all is said and done. 78 million dead. Pretty bad but we can truck on.

It's a virus. Can it come back like the flu does? And if it does will it be just as bad or worse? The second wave might trigger immune overreactions. If that's say ten times as bad as the first round then we could be looking at a decimation of the global population. Recurring, until there are so few people left that it can't spread anymore. A virus that is three times as infective as the flu.

That's the worst case. Probably won't get to that. But anything more serious than "serious flu bro, but then it went away and never came back" is going to lead to very long lasting cultural, global, changes.

[Ibian]

Complete lock down for Hot spot areas and for others bit relax lock down should do the trick.

If it recurs and is worse the next time then everything has to be locked down until we are completely rid of it. It takes one person to infect the world. Literally.

[JSRAW]

Complete lock down for Hot spot areas and for others bit relax lock down should do the trick.

If it recurs and is worse the next time then everything has to be locked down until we are completely rid of it. It takes one person to infect the world. Literally.

Yeah, that's why identifying hot spots are necessary and no country can afford complete lock down for long period of time, that's why low risk area need relaxation. worst case scenario in long term lock down is country going bankrupt and people coming out with frustration, followed by riots.

[marcus_of_augustus]

It takes one person to infect the world. Literally.

... or one tiger, or cat ... or ferret in a lab ... or vial.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Check out this graph from JP Morgan:


This is based partially on the second wave emerging in China. Are we going to keep doing these lockdowns every couple of months until a vaccine arrives?

... yes that is the most likely scenario at this point. Rolling lockdowns for the next 18-24 months.

Unless there is a therapeutic cure, vaccine in which case it ends earlier. Or there is new information about the effects of the disease which makes total lockdown until elimination necessary.

[JayJuanGee]

#staycalm
"Bitcoin charts : I don't want to jinx it but the calendar year to date candle is green!"

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1247281669347786752

Since we are becoming such interwebs' buddies (#nohomo) recently, JSRAW, me as "grammar policia" decided to FTFY.

You will gracias me later.  

 

By the way, that is a doji candle... whatever that means?.... and I am not superstitious about any of the "mentioning it" part.

[Paashaas]

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

[bitebits]

So the real picture of demand and supply is not a halving of sell pressure. It's closer to 3000 BTC/day going to 2100 BTC/day, a 30% reduction (not 50%).

PS. This is not my analysis, it's from others in the industry who do not want to be named.

tiny heretical thread worth thinking about

I don’t understand. 1200 btc in fees mined per day? That can’t be true.
Or are exchanges making 1200 BTC in fees per day, which they immediately convert to fiat causing sell pressure?

[bitebits]

#staycalm
"Bitcoin charts : I don't want to jinx it but the year to date candle is green!"

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1247281669347786752

That is incredible considering the circumstances. Wow.

[JayJuanGee]

I am pretty sure that in recent weeks I had come across a term that describes a kind of poetic justice that occurs when someone becomes a victim of the very thing that s/he has been denying to exist. 

Boris Johnson has already become that, but I cannot remember the term.. or if we need to create a term. 

New research obsession of mine to find the right descriptor (or meme or whatever will accurately describe such phenomena and several people are coming to realize that those invisible lil thingies, aka viruses, can be a "real" force to be reckoned with).

Even when someone is a denier, we can still feel some passion for the human side of severe illness and perhaps succumbing to death when they become the victim, even though their prior arrogance can be challenging of such sympathies, too, as shown in this article, including a video from Johnson, too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/johnson-s-war-with-coronavirus-is-no-joke-anymore

The below article about Landon Spradlin deals with coronavirus deniers becoming victims, too.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/02/landon-spradlin-coronavirus-pandemic-death-punchline/

[Biodom]

Check out this graph from JP Morgan:


This is based partially on the second wave emerging in China. Are we going to keep doing these lockdowns every couple of months until a vaccine arrives?

There was also some UK model that basically suggested rolling 15 days on/off (work-lockdown) scheme which would result in manageable (by hospitals) infection rate.
Don't have the linky handy.

So the real picture of demand and supply is not a halving of sell pressure. It's closer to 3000 BTC/day going to 2100 BTC/day, a 30% reduction (not 50%).

PS. This is not my analysis, it's from others in the industry who do not want to be named.

tiny heretical thread worth thinking about

I don’t understand. 1200 btc in fees mined per day? That can’t be true.
Or are exchanges making 1200 BTC in fees per day, which they immediately convert to fiat causing sell pressure?

Yeah, 1200 are exchange btc fees that they sell immediately for fiat. I did not know that they generate that much daily.
I wonder what it does to the S2F model? Maybe nothing since it is not NEW btc, however, it actually increases btc turnover.

[Cryptotourist]

... in a time of doom, forward-thinkers are doomsayers. Live with it, or stay in your temporally-retarded bubble, shooting the messenger is infantile.

Don't lie to yourself, you are not a forward-thinker nor a messenger, you are just a shill.
A well paid shill.
A filthy well paid shill.

... yes that is the most likely scenario at this point. Rolling lockdowns for the next 18-24 months.

Government shill?
Locking people down 18-24 months for no reason. Good luck with that.
Promotion ahead?

[nutildah]

So I took your advice and watched The Hunt the other day... It definitely had a few laughs. Its funny to read the IMDB reviews. Some people saying, "Hah! They owned the libs so good." Then others saying, "Hah! They made conservatives look really dumb." Don't exactly know what the message was if there was one.

I recommend watching it, but don't pay money for it or you'll be disappointed.

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnEik-n-yTM

[JayJuanGee]

One and a third million. And people are starting to come out again around here.

Isolation can't continue forever. However bad this plague turns out to be, it will pass but the potential cultural impact could hang around for a long time.

Why do the chinese eat almost literally anything, including live animals or cooking their food with slop from sewers? Because their ancestors were starving and the most picky eaters died first.

And now the entire world is locked down. Just how bad could things get fifty years from now if we keep going like this for too long?

Do you know how to take responsibility for things, Ibian?  Or do you just like to blame others, including your previous bullshit about genetic intelligence?

I am sure that the Chinese better be learning some shit from this whole situation, but the west also needs to learn some shit too, which is why the fuck have so many vulnerabilities in a variety of supply chains?

Sure, we could have chosen a world that has a whole lot less world travel too, but the world that we currently live in has a lot of travel, including difficulties that will come from seemingly highly contagious shit like this... and there is all kinds of experimenting going on with viruses too, so if this one escaped in china or even escaped somewhere else or was purposefully planted, it may take a long time before theories and facts are investigated in order to attempt to figure out what actually went wrong here, rather than making shit up in regards to what caused it and the various impacts, including that we still seem to be somewhat on the front end of this shit...

Even though tests are still being developed, it is hard to believe that even having testing is going to resolve a lot of the numbers (whether deaths, numbers of infected or even numbers carrying the anti-bodies that might have become immuned, perhaps) that continue to increase and plateauing seems to be more wishful than actual, at least currently.