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Question: Which price is bitcoin going to reach first? (credits to Jay)
$25K - 56 (34.6%)
$50K - 106 (65.4%)
Total Voters: 162

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25376037 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
Karartma1
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July 30, 2020, 12:55:42 PM

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21
Wisdom.

During bear markets we tend to accumulate as much as we possibly can but, as you said, during bull markets we could capitulate due to too much excitement. Having a strategy allows us to be more confident all the way up.

Again, Dude, this is wisdom!
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July 30, 2020, 01:44:42 PM

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21
Wisdom.

During bear markets we tend to accumulate as much as we possibly can but, as you said, during bull markets we could capitulate due to too much excitement. Having a strategy allows us to be more confident all the way up.

Again, Dude, this is wisdom!

There are a few good posters in the twitter thrash-hole
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July 30, 2020, 01:45:22 PM

I keep going away from this site and now I want to be back for a while but I did notice someone's signature campaign had their business logo on a trucker hat.

What is this bullshit! People copying the wall observer trademark!
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July 30, 2020, 02:00:53 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21
Wisdom.

During bear markets we tend to accumulate as much as we possibly can but, as you said, during bull markets we could capitulate due to too much excitement. Having a strategy allows us to be more confident all the way up.

Again, Dude, this is wisdom!

Talking of strategies to sell some, what are strategies being planned by others here?
  • DCA over a couple weeks with start of first sell triggered by target price, technical indicator in combination with date
  • BTC backed loans to carry you to the next bull peak. Pay back when BTC rate improves.
  • Selling put options. Hedge to not miss the top, but can be costly when the bull gets going.
  • Do you sell to USDT or some other fiat linked coin?
  • Where do you invest/save your new stack of fiat in the current economy?
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July 30, 2020, 02:07:58 PM
Last edit: July 30, 2020, 02:35:59 PM by cAPSLOCK
Merited by 600watt (1)



whatever the forces are that make bitcoins price explode in the slow motion pattern we are experiencing, I find it hard to answer the question where will it ever stop? I have the gut feeling that there is no limit. where is the point of saturation? where will be an equilibrium reached between the new truly digital money and the rotting fiat system?
on the other hand, looking at the log chart price history it does appear to flatten out in the future. why is it flattening?

100k is indeed ridiculous. and so was 100 before.

This is an interesting notion to me.  But there HAS to be a point at which we reach a sort of saturation.  But without total failure we could not be even slightly close to it yet.  We still have orders of magnitude growth potential.  It's like that chart with all the little boxes that represent 100 billion USD I think.  Where does Bitcoin end up in that whole list...  Certainly not with just ~2 boxes.  But do we stop somewhere near/below Gold's market cap or even a little more?  Or do we aim for some portion of the global money supply.

The former is still a LARGE jump from where we are... between 50x and 100x of our current value.

The latter is mindbogglingly astronomical...  Almost impossible seeming if you run the numbers.
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July 30, 2020, 02:38:11 PM
Merited by strawbs (2), AlcoHoDL (1)

If you thought holding was hard over the past few years, just wait until the #Bitcoin  price is ascending relentlessly, instigating you to sell down your stack.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Strong-handedness is more critical in bull markets than bear markets.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1288682370090950657?s=21
Wisdom.

During bear markets we tend to accumulate as much as we possibly can but, as you said, during bull markets we could capitulate due to too much excitement. Having a strategy allows us to be more confident all the way up.

Again, Dude, this is wisdom!

Talking of strategies to sell some, what are strategies being planned by others here?
  • DCA over a couple weeks with start of first sell triggered by target price, technical indicator in combination with date
  • BTC backed loans to carry you to the next bull peak. Pay back when BTC rate improves.
  • Selling put options. Hedge to not miss the top, but can be costly when the bull gets going.
  • Do you sell to USDT or some other fiat linked coin?
  • Where do you invest/save your new stack of fiat in the current economy?

I will not sell most of my reserves under any circumstances.  The only thing I see myself diversifying into if it is appropriate is real estate.

I am hoping the lightning network and other layer 2 solutions begin to flourish over the next years, and my strategy will be how to move sats into channels via which I can pay for the needs of daily life.  I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.
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July 30, 2020, 02:45:29 PM

I will not sell most of my reserves under any circumstances.  The only thing I see myself diversifying into if it is appropriate is real estate.

I’d like to be able to HODL my entire stash for another 10-15 years but I have life goals & if/when we see $70,000+ I won’t lie, I’m going to have to staggered sell maybe 75%.

I will keep 25% long term though.

I can’t put myself & my girl through another mentally crippling multi year bear market.
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July 30, 2020, 02:54:18 PM
Merited by infofront (1), 600watt (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still consolidating around $11k after this week's jump up to 5 digits... currently $10986USD/$14747CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Almost time to start moving up again.

Go Bitcoin go.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

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July 30, 2020, 03:06:45 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1), JayJuanGee (1), bitmover (1)

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

No one's going to sell to leave the money to rot in a bank account, unless they have some sort of condition.

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

When the opportunity arises to exit enough to no longer have to care anywhere near as much it's being grabbed with both hands. Around half should do it.
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July 30, 2020, 03:10:22 PM

I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.

sounds like a good plan to me.
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July 30, 2020, 03:24:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.

sounds like a good plan to me.
My plans are also same but have very little difference I want to live in village with my kids as its also very exciting need some good amount for paying bills and this is also boring but still very good for me. Smiley
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July 30, 2020, 03:28:10 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still consolidating around $11k after this week's jump up to 5 digits... currently $10986USD/$14747CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Almost time to start moving up again.

Go Bitcoin go.

*Develop a strategy now and do not deviate*

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.




More like: Don't sell. Period.

Whats that? Your brother needs an operation? Not as much as I need 100k per Bitcoin. GTFO of my Lambo dreams.

I keep going away from this site and now I want to be back for a while but I did notice someone's signature campaign had their business logo on a trucker hat.

What is this bullshit! People copying the wall observer trademark!

I noticed the same.

... Goddamn shitcoin promoters!

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July 30, 2020, 03:36:48 PM

I will not sell most of my reserves under any circumstances.  The only thing I see myself diversifying into if it is appropriate is real estate.

I’d like to be able to HODL my entire stash for another 10-15 years but I have life goals & if/when we see $70,000+ I won’t lie, I’m going to have to staggered sell maybe 75%.

I will keep 25% long term though.

I can’t put myself & my girl through another mentally crippling multi year bear market.

This I TOTALLY understand.  But I also believe the last 4 years have hardened me significantly.
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July 30, 2020, 03:46:21 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)


I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

Consider this script:

-Bitcoin slowly gains steam from here  
-Over the next 3-18 months we see it decisively make a new high... somewhere between 20-25k.  I dunno I am no technical wizard.
-The above scenario is kicking in pretty strong.
-We see a strong pullback.
-We drop under the current ATH again (19.5k), perhaps by a good bit.

That is the point of greatest pain.  A LOT of people will be saying "Oh my God.  I am going to lose 90% of this AGAIN."

They will sell into the hands of people who recognize what is happening (stronger hands).

Then over a fairly short amount of time we clear out all the balsa wood resolve around the ATH and we are ready for open skies.

This is what I see happening... and I KNOW it is going to hurt.  A LOT.  I believe this is the BOOS FIGHT. I think this is what I have to make my decisions for.  And I should only sell enough corn near the new ATH to put myself into a 3-4 month medically induced coma.

Of course I could be wrong.

P.S On the other side of this?  The hyper bullish version?  We will also be seeing the biggest avalanche of capital coming into corn so far.  There is a chance we hurdle past 20k so fast and hard we barely have a chance to blink.  I think still many of the OG set will be selling at these levels, even if their sales are lost in the torrent of new buys.  They will end up in the history books kind of like that guy who tweeted about selling at $30 because he wanted to lock in at least those gains.  This scenario too (though I think MUCH less likely) will be difficult to live through.  But I for one welcome that sort of difficulty. Wink
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July 30, 2020, 03:51:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1), 600watt (1)

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

You could've said the exact same about the return to $1000 and there was a lot more pain and terror before that happened.

If you're still here the chances are you've had a long, long time to learn and increase your resolve. The hopeless and gullible will have acted on that hopelessness and gullibility long before.

2014/15 carried with it the whiff of it still being some sort of fluke that could fade away. This time around it has no doubt hurt for many but you'd have to be pretty stupid and lacking in vision to not think the future is bright no matter what the short term does to you.
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July 30, 2020, 03:53:09 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), infofront (1), _javi_ (1)

So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.

That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.

You could've said the exact same about the return to $1000 and there was a lot more pain and terror before that happened.

If you're still here the chances are you've had a long, long time to learn and increase your resolve. The hopeless and gullible will have acted on that hopelessness and gullibility long before.

I am remembering the way it was right at the time we blasted through 1k for the second time and then fell to what was it? 800 or so?

I think a LOT of people pulled ripcords around that time.

My scenario is directly inspired by a move of a LARGE amount of my personal holdings onto Kraken, and then a sober realization of the danger I was in and a move back off.  I did not sell any BTC, but i lost an enormous amount of privacy because of that emotionally charged indescretion.
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July 30, 2020, 04:01:15 PM
Last edit: July 30, 2020, 04:12:00 PM by philipma1957
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)

Best strategy: Don't sell unless absolutely necessary.

Buy whenever possible and hold.

Resist the temptation to waste your bitcoins by buying fiat currencies just because the price went up. Be strong.

Do not deviate.

No one's going to sell to leave the money to rot in a bank account, unless they have some sort of condition.

I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.

When the opportunity arises to exit enough to no longer have to care anywhere near as much it's being grabbed with both hands. Around half should do it.

It is a ratio thing.
Always be prepared to sell some, but not all.

Also when people say numbers like :
     10,000 ----------- been there done that
     20,000 ----------- been there done that

     50,000 ----------- to move to this number by 2021 means 922,339,050,000 or 922 billion

the world's money supply is easily able to achieve bumping btc to 50,000 or 922 billion by the years end
the world has well over     49,220 billion in wealth

so pushing btc to 50,000 by years end is not that hard to do.

So the upside if you have 3 coins right now is 150,000 by 2021 is possible.

If your coins cost you 3,900 x 3 = 11,700

do your math and figure what to sell.

If you want to be highest risk hold it all risking 11,700 for a possible 150,000

If you want to be lowest risk sell it all.  you get about 33,000 - 11,700 = 21,300 profit a certain win.

If you are sane and want to do what you said in your post

you sell 1.1 coins gives you 12100 you invested 11,700. you are up 400 usd.

and you have 1.9 coins in hand.

Set a price point for next sell say 20,000

do ratios  the upside is the 1.9 could go to 95,000

at 20,000 if you sell .4.  you get 8,000

and still have 1.5 coins.

You can alter the numbers since I do not know your cost basis or your coin wealth. But it is the 50-50 game or 60-40 game or 70-30 game I am playing.
  
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July 30, 2020, 04:20:50 PM

Talking of strategies to sell some, what are strategies being planned by others here?
  • Where do you invest/save your new stack of fiat in the current economy?

Moon colony apartment penthouse. It's a growth industry and the view would be spectacular.
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July 30, 2020, 04:44:16 PM

It’s degenerate gambling imo

I don't see your point, whats wrong with that?  Cheesy
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July 30, 2020, 04:53:21 PM

I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

I would like a home in the mountains, and possibly a place by the sea... perhaps I will try to combine those two things and move to the up country in Maui.  Then I just need enough to pay the bills.

I suppose that sounds boring.

sounds like a good plan to me.
My plans are also same but have very little difference I want to live in village with my kids as its also very exciting need some good amount for paying bills and this is also boring but still very good for me. Smiley

I am with you guys, I want to move back to my village, buy some more land, plant a forest, grow my own food, have my own water and secure jobs for my family and close friends on my ranch so they can all eat and live healthier and less stressful lives surrounded by nature.

Hopefully pass that down the generations after I'm gone.
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