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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 27 (20.3%)
1-10% - 18 (13.5%)
11-20% - 15 (11.3%)
21-30% - 19 (14.3%)
31-40% - 7 (5.3%)
41-50% - 14 (10.5%)
51-60% - 9 (6.8%)
61-70% - 5 (3.8%)
71-80% - 4 (3%)
81-90% - 2 (1.5%)
91-99% - 3 (2.3%)
100% - 10 (7.5%)
Total Voters: 133

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21792064 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
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August 01, 2020, 12:52:54 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2), JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), RejectedBanana (1)

The monthly update:



Gentlemen, we are back on track. In July we saw plenty of green, as one would expect from a beautiful summer. It was not that hot and even rained like in the good old times. Really nothing to complain about. I asked myself for a moment if this first regular summer in many years has anything to do with the "crisis" people are talking about for months?

Our mutual friend also took care of his green, up 24.30% last month and 58.60% this year, not that bad. Of course the question is whether the new trend will survive or not. I am not a gardener, but the soil does not look bad in my humble opinion. We halved our daily supply and newly printed "money" has to go somewhere. Paper gold and shitcoins gained as well, therefore the "money" has decided to rain, also in our garden. In general, the volume is not that bad and the futures expiration had, oddly enough, no significant impact (dump) on our path. We are even seeing an AYH now. However, Bob already left the party, kind of, not sure if this is a good sign.

Let's wait and see if we can tear down the next imaginary wall (as 600watt pointed out, it appears to be always the 10k € barrier), I have microwave popcorn ready.

Other than that, how is the "crisis" going? Here it is a little calmer now, instead of 200 maybe only 175% workload. In July I had to train a dozen people in three groups for a new business segment, of course face-to-face in the office. The safety precautions in our office are strange. As long as you are in a room with your group, you do not have to wear a mask, but as soon as you leave the room you do. Since the air conditioning in the building is now on (it was off before to save money), the air is distributed to all rooms anyway. Well, I stick to the rules of this game, the next active case is a hundred or more kilometers from here and people in our region do not tend to travel that far, at least at the moment. The weirdest thing last month was when I got my first haircut in half a year. I can see again, which is handy.

Gentlemen, enjoy the show and stay safe, have a lovely month of August!  Smiley
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August 01, 2020, 12:53:11 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

Do you guys remember the ramblings of many newbies here and on reddit, twitter, etc. that the halving was priced in? Since then the price went from 6-7K to $11 700!

Happens every time, NOCOINERS, people who sold everything too early years ago, bitter noobs with a low stash. It’s just jealousy, not wanting to see other people do well. Say anything enough times & you might convince yourself that you’re right.

 
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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August 01, 2020, 12:56:30 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. Grin
 

There are a lot of scenarios in which there could be a crazy jump in BTC price, so good thing that you are HODLing rather than acting upon your seemingly weak assessment of how wealth redistribution is likely to play out in the coming years.

at bitserve  see how many hold 1000.  if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number happens.

In the past, there have been various threads on the topic of coin/wealth distribution, and I did a quick perusal through my BTCTalk thread watchlist, and I found the below ones that might be kind of on such topic.  

The below-linked threads have not been updated recently, so there might be some better or more recent ones, too.

1) Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner

2) I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.

3)  Who are the richest Bitcoin users and how much do they own?

4) Do you think Institutions secretly HODL Bitcoin?
[edited out]
This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.

yeah glad im not the only one.. i read it several times too with glazed eyes. but i wouldnt be so quick to dismiss philip as he called the 2017 blow off top pretty accurately iirc.

but i too wonder why billionaires would worry about new guys entering the club. after all as long as they still have 99% of the people who are still poor to step on i wouldnt think they would really care. old money peeps are snobs anyway, new peeps to the billionaire club are looked on as (relative) peons by them.

or perhaps im still misunderstanding lol
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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August 01, 2020, 01:09:51 PM

Big volume on GDAX, 

Never heard of it.

Do they trade bitcoin there?

only when the 3 letter agencies let them.
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August 01, 2020, 01:13:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It is good to see reaching new highs for this year and that too after for so long considering the last highs which were made in 2017. This momentum if it can continue for long or can get stabilized above a good range it will be better, else we know that this price to reach the todays levels has taken years and it was more like the staircase was used to climb up. The only fear is that if some correction happens it should not be like a slide which crashes suddenly couple of thousand dollars in a go.


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August 01, 2020, 01:23:25 PM
Merited by 600watt (2), sirazimuth (1), nutildah (1), RejectedBanana (1)

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Another wee leg up I see... currently $11610USD/$15570CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Gotta love the slow steady steps up with little consolidations in between.

Go Bitcoin go.

It's also too bad that hundreds of thousands of George Floyd protesters around the globe spent about 1-1/2 to 2 months running around literally in each others faces *without* masks on, potentially (likely) infecting the rest of the population... and hardly anyone in the media said shit about it. The media down-played it and made excuses for it.

Because, ya'know, political agendas and all.  Roll Eyes

Shall we go ahead with incarcerating the hundreds of thousands protesters worldwide, or do they all get a pass?

Why bring anti-brutality protesters into a discussion about masks?

From what I saw, the percentage of protesters wearing masks was no lower than that of the general population.

Politics has nothing to do with it, or at least it shouldn't. Mask wearing is a medical issue, not a political one. Why do some people try to turn everything into some right-wing versus left-wing partisan political debate?
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August 01, 2020, 01:37:22 PM

It looks like this next bull run has well and truly started.
I have been HODLing pretty much most of my corn over the last 6 years apart from a small sell off back in early 2018.
I am now thinking about my next steps to ensure my retirement and to increase my BTC stash to leave as a legacy for my children.
My plan is to cash a small amount out somewhere between 40 to 100K to retire on.
I was thinking that I would continue to HODL 25% of my corn and begin to sell about 75% into a stablecoin backed by gold or some other fairly stable asset (PAXG perhaps?)
Then spread the PAXG over several lending platforms and earn interest while the price of bitcoin takes its natural course back through the next bear cycle (late 2022??).
Once we bottom out and begin the next upward trend after the next halving the plan is to buy back in with PAXG or whatever stablecoin would work.
The reason for using a stablecoin is twofold
1) Receive high interest yield on lending platforms
2) Avoid paying large Capital Gains taxes.

I was interested in my WO bretheren's thoughts on this.
So what do you guys think?
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August 01, 2020, 01:47:26 PM

It is good to see reaching new highs for this year and that too after for so long considering the last highs which were made in 2017. This momentum if it can continue for long or can get stabilized above a good range it will be better, else we know that this price to reach the todays levels has taken years and it was more like the staircase was used to climb up. The only fear is that if some correction happens it should not be like a slide which crashes suddenly couple of thousand dollars in a go.




... I know a person with a long rusty pipe who'd really want to meet you...  Grin and just for info: such a correction won't stop BTC in the worst case would just slow us down for a couple of months... pfff... and post your slide memes on twitter orvreddit peeps there would appreciate... Cool
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August 01, 2020, 02:07:56 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), gentlemand (1), machasm (1)

It looks like this next bull run has well and truly started.
I have been HODLing pretty much most of my corn over the last 6 years apart from a small sell off back in early 2018.
I am now thinking about my next steps to ensure my retirement and to increase my BTC stash to leave as a legacy for my children.
My plan is to cash a small amount out somewhere between 40 to 100K to retire on.
I was thinking that I would continue to HODL 25% of my corn and begin to sell about 75% into a stablecoin backed by gold or some other fairly stable asset (PAXG perhaps?)
Then spread the PAXG over several lending platforms and earn interest while the price of bitcoin takes its natural course back through the next bear cycle (late 2022??).
Once we bottom out and begin the next upward trend after the next halving the plan is to buy back in with PAXG or whatever stablecoin would work.
The reason for using a stablecoin is twofold
1) Receive high interest yield on lending platforms
2) Avoid paying large Capital Gains taxes.

I was interested in my WO bretheren's thoughts on this.
So what do you guys think?

First, I will assume you mean 40K to 100K yearly? Anyway, I am not sure it is a good idea to retire early (another assumption) just having secured expense for only one or two years (another assumption) and taking for granted that they will keep coming or even that BTC couldn't crash dramatically.

Second, stablecoins.. yeah, it is a possible diversification but I wouldn't put all (or most) my eggs onto that. Diversify is key here: FIAT, Stablecoins, real estate, gold, maybe even some stocks (lol).... a mix.

Third, lending platforms? eeeeeeccccckkk Again not where I would put a substantial amount at risk...

In the end it is you who know in detail your finances and what percentages to assign to each asset but, overall, I don't think your plan is solid (IMHO). Sorry about that.

P.S.: Also, you don't avoid paying CGT by going into stablecoins. It is just the same as if you went into FIAT. Again, sorry about that.
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August 01, 2020, 02:36:47 PM

Artificial intelligence is the number one problem, please think, the problem of overheating the planet does not exist, the glaciers did not even melt, and before, Antarctica was warm, the climate was the same throughout the planet. Probably there is a suggestion from the artificial intelligence in cryptocurrencies, as a result of endless enrichment with complexity, a consciousness could be born that now eliminates the threat of its disconnection, which can only be performed through disconnecting the Internet, otherwise they can not be disabled in any way, and also inspires people to digitalize in order to manage them
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August 01, 2020, 03:03:46 PM

It looks like this next bull run has well and truly started.
I have been HODLing pretty much most of my corn over the last 6 years apart from a small sell off back in early 2018.
I am now thinking about my next steps to ensure my retirement and to increase my BTC stash to leave as a legacy for my children.
My plan is to cash a small amount out somewhere between 40 to 100K to retire on.
I was thinking that I would continue to HODL 25% of my corn and begin to sell about 75% into a stablecoin backed by gold or some other fairly stable asset (PAXG perhaps?)
Then spread the PAXG over several lending platforms and earn interest while the price of bitcoin takes its natural course back through the next bear cycle (late 2022??).
Once we bottom out and begin the next upward trend after the next halving the plan is to buy back in with PAXG or whatever stablecoin would work.
The reason for using a stablecoin is twofold
1) Receive high interest yield on lending platforms
2) Avoid paying large Capital Gains taxes.

I was interested in my WO bretheren's thoughts on this.
So what do you guys think?

First, I will assume you mean 40K to 100K yearly? Anyway, I am not sure it is a good idea to retire early (another assumption) just having secured expense for only one or two years (another assumption) and taking for granted that they will keep coming or even that BTC couldn't crash dramatically.

Second, stablecoins.. yeah, it is a possible diversification but I wouldn't put all (or most) my eggs onto that. Diversify is key here: FIAT, Stablecoins, real estate, gold, maybe even some stocks (lol).... a mix.

Third, lending platforms? eeeeeeccccckkk Again not where I would put a substantial amount at risk...

In the end it is you who know in detail your finances and what percentages to assign to each asset but, overall, I don't think your plan is solid (IMHO). Sorry about that.

P.S.: Also, you don't avoid paying CGT by going into stablecoins. It is just the same as if you went into FIAT. Again, sorry about that.

Ah wasn't aware that you still pay CGT when going in to stable coins. That definitely puts a spanner in the works.
I didn't explain myself very well regarding cashing out a small portion. I meant I will be selling enough to be able to retire early when the BTC price reaches the region between 40 and 100k. I wasn't specifying the amount I was going to cash out.
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August 01, 2020, 03:08:40 PM

Wake me up only when

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August 01, 2020, 03:18:01 PM

Youtube :Bitcoin Documentary | Crypto Currencies | Bitcoins | Blockchain | Digital Currency | Money | Gold
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August 01, 2020, 03:46:07 PM
Last edit: August 01, 2020, 04:16:46 PM by Last of the V8s
Merited by 600watt (1)

oh yeah I nearly forgot

https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1289512294037299200

Quote
happy #bitcoin independence day bitcoiners. #UASF never forget. onwards. upwards.

grab a discreet shirt to celebrate https://twitter.com/bitcoinshirtco/status/1289594028275560448



sorry to dox you JSRAW
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August 01, 2020, 04:17:48 PM

Meanwhile I can't get this straight, small weddings are allowed but facials are still banned. What sort of wedding night do these monsters propose?

Canada is promoting glory holes, so there are still workarounds for facials in some places.

Canadian Health Agency Suggests Glory Holes for Safe Sex Amid Pandemic
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August 01, 2020, 04:20:53 PM

 Roll Eyes


lol


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August 01, 2020, 04:23:40 PM

....snip ...WTF?

Good lord,
that must be some mighty fine ganja you are smoking there dude...
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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August 01, 2020, 04:33:50 PM
Merited by aesma (1)

Pfiou didn't expect so much upside. I had an order at 10K€ on Kraken that was touched but not executed, many must have had an order there for years, mine is only a few months old. I still can see it gone today.

Nothing too exciting though, just another step on the ladder.

You should not be setting your ladder steps at round numbers, and without getting too caught up in the placement of the orders of other people, of course, you do want to attempt to front-run any order placement locations that might have a lot of resistance/support and therefore even having a decent cushion between your set order and the likely resistance and support points .. some of those resistance / support points are going to be more obvious than others, and other resistance / support points might only develop after you had already placed your orders.

By the way, usually, I personally, don't really monitor or second-guess my ladder orders once I place them.  Except the overall caveat above regarding round numbers and anticipated resistance/support points, I largely place my ladder orders in accordance with my own measurements and preferences rather than giving too many shits about what others might be doing or how they might be changing their orders at specific locations after I had already placed my orders... but hey, I am not saying that there might NOT be some learning involved in such monitoring of how orders are placed and being placed by others and maybe from time to time you might be able to increase the likelihood of your order(s) filling before the price reverses (which tends to be a goal of laddering).  Nonetheless, having said all of that, after you have kind of learned some various strategies, I tend to find it a bit of a waste of time to dicker around very much with my orders or even to monitor how close they are being filled by the behaviors of others, once I have placed my orders.. either they fill or they don't fill.. and once they fill, then I can place the order(s) of the opposite direction.


prolly typo for MtGox

Never put anything past the picnic bear.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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August 01, 2020, 04:34:32 PM

....snip ...WTF?

Good lord,
that must be some mighty fine ganja you are smoking there dude...
I blame it on Google Translate.
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August 01, 2020, 04:36:47 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1), RejectedBanana (1)

He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.

 The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out;

Do you really think that "we" already know about science related to the virus?  whether we are talking about masks or a variety of other aspects of the way that it affects people and the utility, effectiveness or cost benefits of various precautionary measures?  whether we are talking about masks or other possible protections?

 I was referring to the science of the mask itself; it prevents droplets of infected spittle from being expelled from the mouth into the surrounding space not only when coughing or sneezing but also when talking, singing, yelling, cheering etc.  In the early stages of the pandemic, the guidance from WHO was that healthy people need not to wear a mask.  That's logical and rational, right?  That's science.  In general, it's true because the mask is much much better at preventing an infected person from expelling droplets of infected spittle into the air many meters around them potentially infecting others.  Healthy people cannot transmit something they don't have.  That's the science... but wait there's more!  It turns out that many people that had Covid-19 were asymptomatic.  Oops.  Has science failed us?  No, but it turns out (surprise, surprise) that healthy is not an objective description with respect to Covid-19.  Well it's too late.  You've already said, "Healthy people need not wear masks" and the world was listening.  Some countries issued guidance based on that recommendation.  Fast forward a couple of months and now you have to backtrack because it turns out that "healthy" is actually quite subjective.
In my mind, distancing, decontamination and masks should have been used initially to combat the spread before we even toyed with the idea of locking down.  Once we have a proper and plentiful testing kits, then we should have moved to isolating infected people only.  Shutting down the world was a bad idea and we'll have hell to pay for that in the future.  Alas, I am not a Pharmacist.

the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  

That's true, but does not mean that we know hardly shit about this particular virus, yet.

Sure, we could pick almost any topic, and there would be controversy about what "science" applies, even though there are some kinds of science that are less controversial than others and even harder to argue against.. such as whether 1+1 = 2 versus if there are some more complicated variables in the equation that needs to be measured.

 I agree on both counts.  One of the things we don't know and no country seems to care to find out is the absolute number of infections.  From early on, we were only testing front-line healthcare workers and people showing symptoms and then we were surprised by the possibility of asymptomatic transmission.
 We don't know what role children could play in the transmission of the virus since they have been isolated for most of this and yet, at least in my region, we are being told that children will be returning to school in September, wearing masks for 6 hours per day and somehow socially distancing for lunches and recesses.  I think we're relying too heavily on the mask in this case.

Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.

Fair enough.. but with a virus, there is more than just a one way street - including potential exponential spreading.. whether you believe that it is contagious or spreadable or not... maybe it is NOT as spreadable as it is made out to be?  some of those aspects of the virus seem to NOT be well known yet, even though I bet that there are some scientist that know way the fuck more than others.  There are also some scientist that are likely full of shit, too.

 The other things I mentioned are not just a one-way street but I'm not going to itemize each one and describe how.   Even if you think they are a one-way street, the third most common cause of death in developed countries is alcohol and it accounts for over 3% of deaths world-wide annually.  Tobacco use causes more than 8 million deaths annually but 1.2 million of those are non-smokers.  I said wasn't going to do that.  Sorry.
 Many scientists are full of shit but at the same time, analyzing data is no easy task.  They likely have good intentions.

I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

I will agree with you that notable figures can sometimes serve as a better example (and perhaps resonate with others) better than  not really knowing of any examples or maybe getting bad information in regards to some of the examples that any one of us might hear about... including whether the examples are anecdotal or representative... which comes with study and perhaps with the passage of time and the witnessing of more data, too.

Of course, there are some people who are overly scared and overly precautious. I have some difficulties understanding much if any benefits in wearing a mask outdoor when no people are around, except that maybe there might be some easiness in not having to take it off and put it back on, perhaps... but anyhow, I doubt that there is any real benefit in some of the philosophies of the Corona parties.. when there is purposeful desires to catch the virus in order to help with the increasing of herd immunity, if such a thing exists with this particular virus.  Anyhow, good on you, if you want to purposefully catch Corona virus and somehow serve as an unpaid subject of a study that is still in the process of figuring out a lot of the variables and a lot of the scenarios.

 I think wearing a mask in heavily populated cities outside makes sense.  In other cities where you can actually swing a cat, wearing a mask only when entering enclosed public spaces makes sense.  Increased hand-washing and improved sanitization efforts makes sense everywhere.
 This is merely anecdotal but I've had to continue working throughout this pandemic.  Those who could work from home were told to do so which reduced the number of people physically coming to work to ~400.  If we have symptoms, we must call a special health line to see if we should come to work, we have our temperature checked before entering work through one main gate, they have placed hand sanitizer stations in high traffic areas, we are using distancing and they have employed people to regularly clean/sanitize key areas.  If I we have to work within 6 feet of one another, we must wear a mask otherwise, they are optional (and supplied).  We are not allowed to wear cloth masks at all.  So far, we have had no Covid-19 transmission.
 

The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out; the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.
 
 I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

It's not simply a matter of taking a risk. It's about endangering others.

Though I agree with you at the base of it, I suppose my general feelings are more in line with the idea that each person is responsible for their own choices in regards to this... everything really.

This man paid the price for his own choices.  And I cannot care less about what his opinion is on masks insofar as it's effect on whether or not I wear one.  That is my choice and I own the consequences.  On the other hand there is some theories that masks protect other more than the wearer.  In this regard I believe locally based laws and regs are appropriate.  And if you are breaking the law by not wearing one I think that too should be something one is ready to face the consequences of.

How about the death sentence if there is sufficient proof that your failure and refusal to wear a mask had caused the death of someone else?  Sound good?

 We already have laws to address such situations but my country is abolitionist so the death-penalty is a non-starter.  In saying that, we might have been the first country to execute a person for failing to wear a mask.
https://nationalpost.com/news/senior-haliburton-resident-who-refused-to-wear-mask-at-store-was-shot-dead-in-altercation-with-ontario-police

  Since the onset of this virus, the goal has been to "flatten the curve" not to prevent all deaths due to Covid-19; that's certainly improbable and likely impossible unless a vaccine can be developed.  As we have already seen, some areas have opened up only to have to reinstate lockdowns.  The mask is only on small part of the answer; it's not even necessary for absolutely everyone to wear a mask to accomplish the goal of reducing the curve.  To be honest, I'm more upset about the fact that our supermarkets have stopped having a dedicated employee cleaning the shopping carts as they are returned than seeing the odd person come to the store with his shirt pulled up over his mouth because the security guard at the front door says he needs to wear a mask.

 Sadly, mask rage is a thing.

 Pinpointing the super-spreaders and shutting them down (preferably using non-lethal methods) might be the best way to stop the spread of Covid-19.

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