Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BinaryReign]

Glad to see more upwards price action seems to be on the way. Sorry if someone already mentioned it, but I had an email when I woke up, from Chipotle. Saying “Something big is coming” and “BURRITOS OR BITCOIN”, yet not much else. There’s also a “learn more” button that doesn’t work yet lol

https://www.burritosorbitcoin.com

Haha right! I see now I should have said it doesn’t explain anything yet 

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[Hueristic]

It's not any real change IMHO.  They just don't want the contracts to cost a quarter mill with no granularity.  So it could increase their volume a little.

I also have been at least somewhat dubious over the years that the CME futures tanked the BTC price in 2017...  Maybe contributed?  A catalyst? 

Derivatives steal volume from the underlying asset class and therefore if nothing else they act as a cooling mechanism.

Agreed.  And the positive side of that is less volatility in the underlying asset.  This was the reason for them to exist in the first place so you can hedge a position in the actual asset.  They are a form of financial insurance. 

I am agnostic as to the +/- of derivative futures contracts.

I do not consider losing volatility as positive in a deflationary asset.

Lack of liquidity forces higher prices, period not matter how they want to argue it.

[cAPSLOCK]

It's not any real change IMHO.  They just don't want the contracts to cost a quarter mill with no granularity.  So it could increase their volume a little.

I also have been at least somewhat dubious over the years that the CME futures tanked the BTC price in 2017...  Maybe contributed?  A catalyst? 

Derivatives steal volume from the underlying asset class and therefore if nothing else they act as a cooling mechanism.

Agreed.  And the positive side of that is less volatility in the underlying asset.  This was the reason for them to exist in the first place so you can hedge a position in the actual asset.  They are a form of financial insurance. 

I am agnostic as to the +/- of derivative futures contracts.

I do not consider losing volatility as positive in a deflationary asset.

Lack of liquidity forces higher prices, period not matter how they want to argue it.

Well it's kind of a catch 22 isn't it?  We ARE and aren't losing volatility at the same time really.  I mean there are two classes of futures buyers.  People hedging positions in the underlying asset, and speculators.  It could be argued someone is willing to buy $1mm worth of BTC because he can hedge it with some puts on the futures market.  This person may not have been willing to do this without this option.

It's like playing poker with folks who are willing to "run it X times".  I prefer games where I can choose that as an option, and only players who agree will get the option.  It changes how I play against those who choose that option, but overall it increases action in the underlying game.  Running it X times reduces volatility for those who do that, while it creates more action for the table.

i  guess a better way to articulate my original point is... Bitcoin has matured past the point when these options were introduced.  So it's already really fundamentally "priced in", even with the ability for investors to buy these futures for ~$6k again.  THEY are having to adjust because of *OUR* chipstack growing.

[Elwar]

For any shitcoin with a centralized team that makes bank in an ICO to create the protocol, if you truly support it and love the idea, just copy it and release it anonymously without the upfront costs.

Though, I do support LBRY and use them as an alternative to Youtube. They jumped through all of the hoops in the US and still got hit. It's like here in Panama where the government and police will try to get bribes from you. But all that means is that you're willing to give bribes so they'll just keep coming back.

If I was them I'd dissolve the original company and open a new company to move on with everything.

Not that I would do anything like that with...say...a cruise ship company...

On an unrelated note, for every new venture that you pursue, create a new company for it, and try to separate assets in different companies (in different nations) as much as possible.

Also along those lines, some wise advice I was given: Don't live in the nation of your citizenship, and don't keep your money in the nation where you live or your nation of citizenship.

[JSRAW]

Tether has always been fully backed

 

[rdbase]

Tether has always been fully backed

Why is it whenever I see this quote I instantly think of what Jihan had said on twitter many years ago to Mr.Hodl.

[Hueristic]

i  guess a better way to articulate my original point is... Bitcoin has matured past the point when these options were introduced.  So it's already really fundamentally "priced in", even with the ability for investors to buy these futures for ~$6k again.  THEY are having to adjust because of *OUR* chipstack growing.

Its true that they were only able to cool the market down and skim off a large cap at the time but they can never stop the Train.

They are just doing everything they can to slow it down,

Derivatives ontop of derivatives is a prime example of the institutional fuckery.

[rdbase]

Less than 1% to a € ATH. When Paypal will offer BTC purchases in the rest of the world? That will be big! Get your popcorn ready, people! The lift-off has just started. Next target 75K, 120K!!!  

There's enough corn there to choke a horse.  Jealous!
Moar corn please!!!

Already posted?
https://www.pcmag.com/news/paypal-now-lets-you-use-bitcoin-to-buy-products-from-millions-of-businesses

Starting today, the “Checkout with Crypto” feature will be gradually rolling out for customers in the US. For the first time, PayPal will accept Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, or Bitcoin Cash as a payment option for millions of businesses across the globe.

*EDIT* Lol... yes i see I am late.. but I do not care... I am posting it again.  This is HUGE.
I will add a little color to make up for my transgression.
I believe paypal will be using this as a strategic way to allow themselves to begin passively taking a position.  I doubt they will:

     -take bitcoin
     -pay USD to vendor
     -convert to USD for themselves

...with ALL of the BTC they take.  Instead they will leave at least SOME of it as BTC in reserve.

Too bad I think BCH is going to be continuing to limp along because of this...

You got to take me off your ignore list as I had already shown the "Am I too late to the party?" post I found before posting about it myself when I found out about it too.
We getting old bud.

But to answer those questions of yours to this post.
Paypal has already answered them in their official press release for it on their website:
https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2021-03-30-PayPal-Launches-Checkout-with-Crypto?sf141107167=1

Sidenote:

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1376938941761388545

Well duhhhh!

[El duderino_]

[Karartma1]

It's a lovely day today sir, isn't it?

[rdbase]

Even worse:
"If you had bought just $3 of bitcoin a day instead of coffee for the last six years, you would now have $350,000."
https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1376960362378059780

[wxa7115]

https://tether.to/assurance-opinion-mar-21/

Tether has always been fully backed, and the assurance opinion we made available today confirms it once again.

You can read the assurance opinion and the Consolidated Reserves Report here:
https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/tether-assurance-feb-2021.pdf

I find it funny that Tether claims that their coins have always been fully backed and they use this report to make their claims more legitimate, when the report itself states that while they find that Tether is fully backed they can only make that assertion for the date in which the report was made and not before or after.

Our opinion is limited solely to the CRR and the corresponding consolidated total assets and consolidated total liabilities as of 28 February 2021, at 11:59 PM UTC. Activity prior to and after this time and date was not considered when testing the balances and information described above.  In addition, we have not performed any procedures or provided any level of assurance on the financial or non-financial activity on dates or times other than that noted within this report.

https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/tether-assurance-feb-2021.pdf

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@ITutmez
Since the end of June 2020, Bitcoin has had only three back-to-back down weeks.

The first (in Sept.) was followed by seven consecutive up weeks.

The second (Jan.) was followed by four consecutive up weeks.

What will follow the most recent back-to-back down weeks in March? 🚀
https://twitter.com/itutmez/status/1377006262655811586?s=21

[UnDerDoG81]

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator makes me worry too much. We are crossing it any day now. And it precisely predicted all market tops so far.

Whats your thoughts? This time is different? One possibility is we will have a double top like in 2013. Thats what I am expecting. A bullrun in April, Crash and sideways through summer. Parabolic end of the year.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

[Hhampuz]

I don't even think we are in a bull run, this is just the basement level of people/businesses waking up and somewhat understanding.. A pump - sure, a bull run? Call me when the masses are getting in and not just a handful of companies are securing their positions.

This time is surely different than any other time (but then again, is it?) - Only way is up, crash doesn't have to happen.

[Biodom]

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator makes me worry too much. We are crossing it any day now. And it precisely predicted all market tops so far.

Whats your thoughts? This time is different? One possibility is we will have a double top like in 2013. Thats what I am expecting. A bullrun in April, Crash and sideways through summer. Parabolic end of the year.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

Possible, but at some point all those numerical indicators would stop working as almost any other numerical indicators (NUPL, etc.).
The scenario of a local high in April, then down, then flat, then up in the Fall on the other hand is quite possible.
I have difficulty seeing us topping when we are going up a few % a day; it becomes much more possible, and even likely if we pop to 80-90K in a short time frame (like a week).
One possibility is clear: WS will push btc up when Coinbase listing date would be announced, then the day before, they would likely sell some btc and buy COIN the following day.
Some volatility is to expected there.

[AlcoHoDL]

Yet another off-topic movie recommendation:

Tenet (2020) [Action, Sci-Fi, Thriller]

Be prepared for a unique, mind-bending, powerfully entertaining experience. Must be watched a second time to fully appreciate the finer details and non-linearity of the plot.

A good watch, esp. for Christopher Nolan fans!


My phone kept bleeping throughout the movie, because of Bitcoin's multiple 50k € crossings. I was expecting the price to be just a little higher than it is now, perhaps a Euro-ATH, but hey, who am I to know?

Let's not be too greedy now. $60k by the coming weekend, $65k next week. Then an ETF will be approved, or some other big player will get in Tesla-style, and bang! $80k and we'll be posting "Come on, Bitcoin, do something!" memes.

Life's great. Thank you, Bitcoin.

[OutOfMemory]

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator makes me worry too much. We are crossing it any day now. And it precisely predicted all market tops so far.

Whats your thoughts? This time is different? One possibility is we will have a double top like in 2013. Thats what I am expecting. A bullrun in April, Crash and sideways through summer. Parabolic end of the year.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

The latest two blips on the price graph in the pi top chart don't look too bearish to me, especially when compared to the twin-blips of the earlier tops. As long as the next blip is higher than the blip before, i'd call this an uptrend. Every blowoff drop was bought a last time, but this didn't even compensate the decrease in price right after the cycle top.

Yet another off-topic movie recommendation:

Tenet (2020) [Action, Sci-Fi, Thriller]

I enjoyed this one too, i have watched it two times.

[Biodom]

Is it ("Tenet") available on some streamer? Thanks.

[AlcoHoDL]

Is it ("Tenet") available on some streamer? Thanks.

I don't know, sorry. I downloaded it via Torrent (1080p, 5.1 surround sound) and played it via Plex on my Home Cinema. For those planning to watch it, do it on a good system (large screen, good sound, lights out). You may also like to enable subtitles, as things happen fast.