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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 3 (3.8%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (1.3%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (2.5%)
$85K to $90K - 9 (11.3%)
$90K to $95K - 12 (15%)
$95K to $100K - 13 (16.3%)
>$100K - 40 (50%)
Total Voters: 80

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26498510 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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April 02, 2021, 03:14:44 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Badger is toying with 60k again.

And immediately a $6m sell wall appears (Stamp).

Their days are numbered.  Those dweebs.

Sure the sellers can keep testing the resolve of buyers, but the writing seems to be on the wall.. whether it takes a few more hours or a few months this baby seems inclined for UPpity.. sell if you must.. and employ your weepenings at a later date.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Good morning NFT buffs WOers!

fNFTs were cute, but I wasn't so much into it. There's no fun in being given 1000 BTC for free, just like that. And who wants MySQL-settled NFTs anyways? I want dee blockchainz!

I found that to be a kind of fun little game, even though it did end up teaching about shitcoin dynamics for those who tried to watch it or participated in order to attempt to get a feeling for it.

I am thinking that with this particular game, it would have been nice to let it ride for week.. like a April fools week  - because 24 hours can surely fly by quickly, and some members did not even realize what was going on and maybe some other members did not try their hand/luck at some of the attempt to trade matters.


I see we are close to Euro-ATH again, currently @ 50,640 € (ATH = 51,000 €). Also, getting very close to $60k again, and need another $2,000 for reaching USD-ATH due to exchange rate fluctuations.

So, business as usual, all is fine, and the path to $100k is slowly but surely being paved. If we reach $65k by mid-April and $70k by end of April I'll be happy(er).

Even though some peeps seem to be grumbling in terms of the BTC price being kind of stagnant - there seems to be some failure/refusal to recognize and appreciate the amount of stable that comes from such a relatively slow and steady price move UPpity.. In other words, this is the "stable" that many people wish for, but many do NOT necessarily realize or recognize it, while it is happening.

Many of us, also, likely appreciate that we should be enjoying this relatively slow UPpity while it is happening... because even though none of this BTC shit price action is guaranteed, we are likely in for some upcoming bitcoin price violence.


And, hey, relatively speaking there continues to be confusion on many sides of the argument, and some folks (probably mostly no coiners or those who sold too many coins too soon) believe that BTC is already in a kind of blow-off top territory with a 6x price appreciation within about 7 months, and yes in traditional / mature markets that kind of price appreciation would surely be reasonably measured as frothy... but wake up you dumb fucks who are considering the BTC price dynamics situation from this angle and trying to imbue asset class maturity upon it when such asset class maturity does not exist in bitcoin - even while there might be pieces of information in bitcoin that can be latched upon in order to see what you want to see - but largely just shows that some of these folks who are already measuring a blow off top, froth or over-exuberance in bitcoin continue to NOT appreciate what bitcoin is bringing to the table in terms of a paradigm (ground-breaking) shifting kind of contribution to the world, and sure their are some smartie pants who know this more than others - such as Michael Saylor and folks like him - and some know it, but are not saying anything.. like Saylor seems to get some thrill out of doing... hahahahahaha


April will surely be a fun month, as will the entire 2021.

I largely agree with you, but I am going to somewhat whimpily take the other side of the argument.

Remember what so many folks were saying about March. It is going to be a bad month blah blah blah because Marches tend to be bad in bitcoinlandia blah blah blah.

Well, I am NOT going to say that April is necessarily going to be bad, but we still need to consider where we are at in terms of measuring monthly (somewhat random) openings and closings in bitcoinlandia.  Accordingly, we have had 6 months in a row of positive monthly candles.. So, I am not saying that a 7th one cannot happen.. and surely it does help somewhat that each of the months have been somewhat conservative in their percentages.  It's not like we have had 70% to 100% months therein.. they have largely been sub 30% positive months that have just added up to a lot of ongoing BTC price appreciation.

So maybe I am thinking that the month is less convincing than the year if we are talking about the remainder of 2021.. and gosh do we have any kind of concrete sense yet, if our blow off top, assuming that we get one, is going to happen in 2021 or might it get pushed into the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2022?  I don't see any writing on the wall regarding what is going to happen, even though the 2021 blow off top does remain the most likely of the scenarios because it fits into prior patterns better and even has a bit of logical appeal - but the relatively dumb ass (in my way of framing them) theories of the impending supercycle and the never corrections of 85% again blah blah blah.. could cause our blow off top of this time around to get drug into either the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2022 (and it would be a bit outrageous if it were to get drug into the 3rd quarter of 2022 - though not completely out of the realm of eccentricities that could play out in a new asset class that has various BIG players employing game theory wittingly or unwittingly connected to affecting bitcoin pricenings).

This will likely be the year when the $100k milestone will be reached, and hopefully left far behind. If this happens, it will cause me (as I'm sure may other WOers too) to make some drastic changes to my real life, such as a reconsideration of my employment status and overall life planning.

I cannot disagree with you about very good chances of $100k being breached and perhaps even having a certain length of time above $100k... and sure there are likely a decent number of WO members who would be considering BTC price appreciations in that arena to be sufficient for them to pull some variation of a fuck you lever - but I would still be careful in terms of generalizing too much to suggest that your particular situation and the situation of a lot of your peers remains reflective of a multitude of graduations that exist - including that there have already been some who had hit such a fuck you lever pulling threshold at various BTC price points along the way $20k, $50k blah blah blah....

Another thing remains that due to bitcoin's volatility and anticipated expected ongoing volatility that some folks want to pie in the sky proclaim to be disappearing, from a prudence perspective, there still needs to be some kind of recognition of the existing volatility and the likely ongoing volatility in terms of how to deal with such reality (rather than wishing it away by proclaiming supercycle and other bullshit).  

So yeah there remain a variety of ways to attempt to deal with the likely volatility in terms of cashing out some bitcoin in order to take that value out of the bitcoin volatility or attempting to account for such volatility within your individual calculations regarding how to incorporate such ongoing expected volatility into the assignment of value to your BTC stash, which I personally believe that the 208-week moving average accomplishes in a very conservative kind of way.. but since the 208-week moving average is so god damned low at $10,600-ish as I type, there would be a large number of guys who reasonably might end up using some other kind of measurement - such as the 104-week moving average (or maybe some other way of measuring BTC value and incorporating volatility into the calculation) that would give them a much higher BTC price value (with the 104-week moving average at about $15k currently as I type), and so sure the higher number would end up getting breached more frequently but it might allow for some guys to still relatively conservatively be able to put a reasonable valuation on BTC that allows them to pull the fuck you lever at a reasonable place for them - but still NOT too soon based on some fly-by-night BTC price that is not enduring - unless they cash out some or all of their BTC at that price - and I surely am not recommending (and many of us here too, if I might say) that BTC holders place much value in fiat or even other assets, so they better be careful about cashing out too many of their BTC, even if temporarily there might end up being a BTC price "top" going on.


Well, I've almost said this again for $10k when we were at $5k back in 2017, but I didn't do it, so there is a small possibility that, upon reaching $100k, I will then set my life-changing milestone to $200k, then $500k, then $1M. See where this is going?

You should be able to plan ahead and execute upon it, no?  We are not talking about all or nothing, hopefully, right?  For example, if you feel uncomfortable with cashing out 25% then maybe reduce that to 20% or 15% or whatever number causes you to feel comfortable.. and then if your original number was 25% at $100k, then maybe you take that whole 25% and you tell your lil selfie 10% at $100k, another 5% at $120k another 5% at $140k or whatever your various numbers would be in order to cause more comfort with actually following through with the plan rather than getting lulled into inaction...

Yeah, I know that some of us (probably more you than me) are able to project like 30 years into the future and then want to make sure that they do not pull their fuck you lever too soon because they have to support their lil selfies for at least those 30 years - and yeah medical and all of that, too.. so yeah, sometimes the calculations do have to go up in order to feel comfortable that you have certain BIG expenses covered, such as medical which seems to be a BIG ass stickler that inhibits some of the fuck you lever pulling (reasonably so, but should be able to be reasonably and prudently accounted for in the calculations, too).

The thing is, though, that Bitcoin is immortal and we're not. So, as we get older, we should start coinsidering (typo, but I won't correct it) actually using (a fraction of) out corn for real-life enjoyment, pleasures and/or debauchery, or whatever rocks each one's boat. I want my stash to be close to 0 BTC when I die.

I cannot argue with you about any of those points..  seem like very reasonable considerations.

I love you guys!
This is the best thread ever. I hope I won't get banned!

I agree that you should probably either get banned, suspended or some other kind of serious punishment.

ONLY Bawb can get away with failing/refusing to use a nohomo tag when devolving into such emotionalism...  

I am sure that quite a few other guys here, feel quite uncomfortable regarding your level of blatantly expressing your emotions, you fuck.

Sideways is a beautiful thing for me. But I get the vast majority of my corn from mining.
Hey it was a bitch for mining for years much like it was hard on hodlers that purchased on Dec 10, 2017.

So maybe 2021 is the year of the miner if so 2022 may be the year of the trader.
And if we go back to bears maybe 2023.  All of which work well for me.

My position on sideways with an uppity slant is it is very good for business of BTC. Time will tell.
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April 02, 2021, 03:21:22 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitebits (1)

Badger is toying with 60k again.

And immediately a $6m sell wall appears (Stamp).

If you are buying 600mm worth OTC what's 1% to keep the price "oracle" in line?

People are probably tired of me saying this, but I just can't see how this is not what is currently in play... and it is ridonkulously bullish once it stops working.
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April 02, 2021, 03:23:06 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

..... sideways with an uppity slant .....

That's what she said....
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April 02, 2021, 03:45:49 PM

bitcoin is a lot about game theory. with so many institutions fighting over the last few bitcoin available, what would be the optimal time for a large investment to create an advantage over its competitors? maybe before or on a long weekend when the competition is on vacation?

Large investments will aim for OTC deals with predictable cost. Those without the clout for that will purchase slowly to avoid price shocks.

We talk about supply and demand affecting the price but trading is a stochastic process and sentiment is probably more important most of the time. This is why 58k is "too expensive" but a dip o 53k is also "too expensive" then when we're blasting past 73k, it will be "buy buy buy".
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April 02, 2021, 03:46:06 PM

It's not just about proudhon, guys. It's GANDALF the wizard himself that says so! We're all doomed. Cornz is going to zero soon. Should I say, weeeeee?

Badger is toying with 60k again.

And immediately a $6m sell wall appears (Stamp).

If you are buying 600mm worth OTC what's 1% to keep the price "oracle" in line?

People are probably tired of me saying this, but I just can't see how this is not what is currently in play... and it is ridonkulously bullish once it stops working.

+1 WOsMerits

Some people just can't stop making sense...
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April 02, 2021, 03:53:19 PM
Last edit: April 02, 2021, 04:41:23 PM by d_eddie
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Now that the fNFT craze has ended (thanks theymos! I really enjoyed the game, I too wish it could last longer, but calendar is calendar...) well I digress, but now that the fad is over I can replace that fNFT/sql-fBTC inflation with some proper WOsMerit inflation, so here we go.

bitcoin is a lot about game theory. with so many institutions fighting over the last few bitcoin available, what would be the optimal time for a large investment to create an advantage over its competitors? maybe before or on a long weekend when the competition is on vacation?

Food for thought from a legendary in the making and official WO helicopter guy.
+1 WOsMerits


bitcoin is a lot about game theory. with so many institutions fighting over the last few bitcoin available, what would be the optimal time for a large investment to create an advantage over its competitors? maybe before or on a long weekend when the competition is on vacation?

Large investments will aim for OTC deals with predictable cost. Those without the clout for that will purchase slowly to avoid price shocks.

We talk about supply and demand affecting the price but trading is a stochastic process and sentiment is probably more important most of the time. This is why 58k is "too expensive" but a dip o 53k is also "too expensive" then when we're blasting past 73k, it will be "buy buy buy".

An old fox. Old dog? New tricks? No need. This stuff is old, "too expensive" vs. "buy buy buy". The matter is, it still works that way.

+1 WOsMerits

My point of view on this matter: I suspect most big players go OTC, so the market shouldn't be too responsive to their buys in the short term (the cAPSLOCK/Richy_T thesis basically). However, Saylor has said he likes iceberg/hidden limit buys on the ordinary books, so there is that. The answer likely lies in the middle. Perhaps?
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April 02, 2021, 04:07:20 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

It's not just about proudhon, guys. It's GANDALF the wizard himself that says so! We're all doomed. Cornz is going to zero soon. Should I say, weeeeee?

But... but... I don't mean to offend Gandalf, but my calculations says something else.

I have crunched the numbers, I promise!



God if I'm wrong... Maybe marcus_of_augustus can confirm with his equation?
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April 02, 2021, 04:28:54 PM
Merited by Krubster (1)

It's not just about proudhon, guys. It's GANDALF the wizard himself that says so! We're all doomed. Cornz is going to zero soon. Should I say, weeeeee?

But... but... I don't mean to offend Gandalf, but my calculations says something else.

I have crunched the numbers, I promise!



God if I'm wrong... Maybe marcus_of_augustus can confirm with his equation?

run the numbers through this guy as a check:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN5KIUNfYGA
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April 02, 2021, 04:35:55 PM

run the numbers through this guy as a check:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN5KIUNfYGA
Thank you. That concludes it.
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April 02, 2021, 04:37:09 PM
Merited by suchmoon (9)

Hang on now.  Since Lauda left, can we be sure there is a woman on this forum?

Are you sure I'm not a woman?

Are you sure I'm not black?

Want to find out?

EDIT: Uhoh. Buy order @ $58.5k just got filled... Next order @ $58k
EDIT2: Oshit. Filled @ $58k. Next order @ $57.5k

Actually I have always suspected that. If you own a shitload of BTC and want to remain anonymous and keep high level of opsec you could pretend to be someone least similar to yourself, like a person of opposite sex, race, another age, nationality etc... so using this method we can easily find out Bawb is in fact a white woman, probably heterosexual, living in China or Russia? OMG!  Shocked
What about BitChick? She seemed fairly legit, Bit.Husband was less on board. She burned some BTC on missionary stuff, haven't seen her since.

 She still posts on Twitter Reddit regularly.  She said something the other day about her thinking bitcoin to $300k and hubby thinking 150k.  She never pretended to be a power-topping, gay, black cowboy though did she?  Wink

 edit:  All those social media platforms are the same to me.  Embarrassed

I think that the occasional women accounts that wander into the WO thread from time to time, get turned off by all the NSFW and silly bro/misogynist shit that gets posted here on the regular. As well as all the tech/politics/religion arguments *cough* debates.

Which is why any account that hangs out here over a long-ish period of time that claims to be a "female" is full of shit (news flash: they never were a woman, they were lying the whole time)
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April 02, 2021, 04:40:29 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Good morning Bitcoinland. Now that April NFTers' Day is officially behind us, we can get back to reality.

After a splendid month of March (soaring from $49k to $59k) we can look forward to continuing this amazing bull run by going for an unprecedented 7th consecutive green monthly candle.

For now, we're still going sideways in the $5xxxx range, albeit knocking on the $60k door... currently $59315USD/$74538CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

When we finally break through, watch out.

Go Bitcoin go.

If you are buying 600mm worth OTC what's 1% to keep the price "oracle" in line?

People are probably tired of me saying this, but I just can't see how this is not what is currently in play... and it is ridonkulously bullish once it stops working.

Indeed. I've been trying to remind people about this for years but there are still some who act as if online exchange prices are strictly the result of supply and demand with "whales" being equal participants.

Obviously since most high-level holders operate over-the-counter off-exchange, they can use online exchanges mainly to dump to keep nominal prices artificially low for buying offline.

Where do people think the "bear whales" keep coming up with the coins to crash (correct) the price down periodically? Not at online exchanges.

...and the rich get richer and the poor get poorer... ain't we got fun?
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April 02, 2021, 04:42:05 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1), _javi_ (1)

I hate it when I click on a link and instead of opening in a new tab, it leaves WO, and then I close the tab to return to WO, and there's no WO.

#addictedtowo
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April 02, 2021, 04:46:35 PM

..... sideways with an uppity slant .....

That's what she said....

along with "again"
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April 02, 2021, 04:50:49 PM

Hang on now.  Since Lauda left, can we be sure there is a woman on this forum?

Are you sure I'm not a woman?

Are you sure I'm not black?

Want to find out?

EDIT: Uhoh. Buy order @ $58.5k just got filled... Next order @ $58k
EDIT2: Oshit. Filled @ $58k. Next order @ $57.5k

Actually I have always suspected that. If you own a shitload of BTC and want to remain anonymous and keep high level of opsec you could pretend to be someone least similar to yourself, like a person of opposite sex, race, another age, nationality etc... so using this method we can easily find out Bawb is in fact a white woman, probably heterosexual, living in China or Russia? OMG!  Shocked
What about BitChick? She seemed fairly legit, Bit.Husband was less on board. She burned some BTC on missionary stuff, haven't seen her since.

 She still posts on Twitter Reddit regularly.  She said something the other day about her thinking bitcoin to $300k and hubby thinking 150k.  She never pretended to be a power-topping, gay, black cowboy though did she?  Wink

 edit:  All those social media platforms are the same to me.  Embarrassed

I think that the occasional women accounts that wander into the WO thread from time to time, get turned off by all the NSFW and silly bro/misogynist shit that gets posted here on the regular. As well as all the tech/politics/religion arguments *cough* debates.

Which is why any account that hangs out here over a long-ish period of time that claims to be a "female" is full of shit (news flash: they never were a woman, they were lying the whole time)


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April 02, 2021, 04:56:55 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland. Now that April NFTers' Day is officially behind us, we can get back to reality.

After a splendid month of March (soaring from $49k to $59k) we can look forward to continuing this amazing bull run by going for an unprecedented 7th consecutive green monthly candle.

For now, we're still going sideways in the $5xxxx range, albeit knocking on the $60k door... currently $59315USD/$74538CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

When we finally break through, watch out.

Go Bitcoin go.

If you are buying 600mm worth OTC what's 1% to keep the price "oracle" in line?

People are probably tired of me saying this, but I just can't see how this is not what is currently in play... and it is ridonkulously bullish once it stops working.

Indeed. I've been trying to remind people about this for years but there are still some who act as if online exchange prices are strictly the result of supply and demand with "whales" being equal participants.

Obviously since most high-level holders operate over-the-counter off-exchange, they can use online exchanges mainly to dump to keep nominal prices artificially low for buying offline.

Where do people think the "bear whales" keep coming up with the coins to crash (correct) the price down periodically? Not at online exchanges.

...and the rich get richer and the poor get poorer... ain't we got fun?

 "ain't we got fun" immediately reminded me of the Little Friskies commercial from the mid 1970's - that damned TV is a powerful tool.
 https://youtu.be/GJzygoRYqj0
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April 02, 2021, 04:58:05 PM

run the numbers through this guy as a check:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tN5KIUNfYGA
Thank you. That concludes it.

Vapourminer shows us what happens to catz who don't know enuff math & science. Dont be that cat.


When we finally break through, watch out.

If you are buying 600mm worth OTC what's 1% to keep the price "oracle" in line?

Indeed. I've been trying to remind people about this for years but there are still some who act as if online exchange prices are strictly the result of supply and demand with "whales" being equal participants.

Where do people think the "bear whales" keep coming up with the coins to crash (correct) the price down periodically? Not at online exchanges.

Says the uber-fox.

+1 WOsMerits
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April 02, 2021, 05:21:09 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Epliogue











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April 02, 2021, 05:25:22 PM

"ain't we got fun" immediately reminded me of the Little Friskies commercial from the mid 1970's - that damned TV is a powerful tool weapon.
 https://youtu.be/GJzygoRYqj0

ftfy

Thank gawd I'd already almost freed myself from TV by the 1970s.

I was thinking more of the classic from the Roaring '20s a century ago.

Here's a more recent version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqa4x9HQXEQ
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April 02, 2021, 05:51:50 PM

..... sideways with an uppity slant .....

That's what she said....

I have the patience, passion and dedication for the price to crash and pump again, over and over and over again! Cheesy Cheesy
The price will crash accordingly then it will pump promptly as scheduled.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Tongue  Cool
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April 02, 2021, 05:53:36 PM

"ain't we got fun" immediately reminded me of the Little Friskies commercial from the mid 1970's - that damned TV is a powerful tool weapon.
 https://youtu.be/GJzygoRYqj0

ftfy

Thank gawd I'd already almost freed myself from TV by the 1970s.

I was thinking more of the classic from the Roaring '20s a century ago.

Here's a more recent version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqa4x9HQXEQ

 Nice.  Hey!  That's George Clooney's mama!
 I'm familiar with that song.  Several years back, I put together a 4 CD music compilation for a friend's grandmother's 80th birthday party.  The one song she wanted which proved very hard to get was Alice Blue Gown (1920).  I ended up getting a copy from a friend at work whose father collected and redistributed oldies from England.  I don't think it originated in England but I guess it was popular there.  I'm sure I put "Ain't we got fun" in that mix too.



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