Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

A very bullish Bloomberg report (analysis is here, the actual report is linked within):
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/in-bullish-report-bloomberg-predicts-400000-bitcoin-price-in-2021

[Elwar]

We all know the rules of the game and rule # 1

"Don't invest more than you can afford to lose."

If HODLING is the strategy then selling and buy are the tactics.

Here's my post warning people about "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" when the price was $325.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=843822.0

[Dabs]

... Where do you think people are going to go?

They can (and have) gone to BCH or BSV. You still sound a like a big blocker even if you say you're not. Segwit has lowered the fees that otherwise non-segwit transactions would pay.

My most recent transaction today cost me $5. (or 0.0001 BTC). It confirmed or got included in a block in about 20 minutes after it was broadcast.

[Biodom]

We all know the rules of the game and rule # 1

"Don't invest more than you can afford to lose."

If HODLING is the strategy then selling and buy are the tactics.

Here's my post warning people about "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" when the price was $325.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=843822.0

It was f-g brilliant, albeit we bottomed at more than 20% down from there ($170 vs $325), but who is counting?  .
Incidentally, that was about when Taihuttu sold his house and everything else for btc and became a traveling btc nomad.
I wish that I was a bit more of an aggressive buyer back then or in 2015 during our "flat btc" era, but you can't buy 'them all.

[samson]

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

That's more like it, lol  

[JayJuanGee]

I've still got a $4000 buy order at 28k.

Yes... yes... yes.. I get the symbolic element in regards to this disclosure.. but to elaborate on the theme, a wee bit.... I am going to assume that you have other buy orders, as well (both lower and higher).. but hey.. no need to jeopardize opsec, rrrrrrrrriiiiiiigggggghhhhhttt?

By the way, currently, I have BTC buy orders down to about $10k, they start in the $54ks and they are about $1k apart... and yeah, I do not really expect any orders below $25k or so to have any kind of long-shot chance of filling... but I do get some comfort in enjoying a kind of luxury to be able to  maintain buy orders down to $10k-ish.

Another thingie-ma-jiggie on my end is that I both made a purchase with bitcoin (recently) and I also accidentally left a BTC sell order "on the books," that ended up filling.. and in the whole scheme of things, in recent times, I did end up closing some of my outstanding  sub $10k orders and those largely ended up being the BTC buy orders that I set in the $53k and $54k range - otherwise maybe my BTC buy orders would not have started until in the $52ks.. but whatever.. gaps between my sales and my buys are getting bigger in terms of dollar amounts and maybe even gravitating a bit more beyond my preferred percentage amounts, too.. Not necessarily a bad thing, even though I do get a bit anxious and sometimes wish to experience a bit more action when NO orders are filling for seemingly significant periods of time... so there remain dilemma feelings about wanting to have passivity and inaction, while at the same time getting a bit bored and wanting to be doing something.

[friends1980]

We all know the rules of the game and rule # 1

"Don't invest more than you can afford to lose."

If HODLING is the strategy then selling and buy are the tactics.

Here's my post warning people about "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" when the price was $325.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=843822.0

How many times do I have to repeat this:

always invest what you can afford to lose.

[Richy_T]

They can (and have) gone to BCH or BSV. You still sound a like a big blocker even if you say you're not. Segwit has lowered the fees that otherwise non-segwit transactions would pay.

I have not said I am not a big blocker and indeed, I am one (though I am generally not going to be pushing it on this thread, I will bring it up when problems caused by restricted block size are discussed). It has just proven that a chain fork is not the solution. That doesn't mean the problem isn't still there.

My most recent transaction today cost me $5. (or 0.0001 BTC). It confirmed or got included in a block in about 20 minutes after it was broadcast.

And two weeks ago, I had a transaction that would have a fee of $20 equivalent for decent inclusion time. Fluctuating fees compound the problem, not alleviate it. I ended up disposing of some litecoin I had trashing up my Ledger instead.

[JayJuanGee]

If for some reason you decided to buy your first BTC this morning around 9AM forum time, that sucks.

What's wrong with that?

There are a lot of peeps without coins, and don't you know about the expression about the best time to buy bitcoin?

Well the answer is the best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday, which then leads us to a question about the second best time to buy bitcoin, and that would be today.

so there you have it.

Get the fuck in.. you many no coiners that are out there (of course I am not referring to you, frienzie wenzie). 

If for some reason you decided to buy your first BTC this morning around 9AM forum time, that sucks.

Buying the top and hodling hard beyond a new ATH is part of the transformation to a Bitcoiner, isn't it?

If it doesn't kill you, it makes you poorer.

Now that's the birth of a new proverb  

What doesn't kill you makes you poorer richer!

FTFY.

Why poorer? If anything, HoDLers came out so much richer after 2017...

Instead, mindrust is dead (read: nocoiner) and poor.

Yep..... mindrust.. so damned close, but yet so far...

that is if the whole situation is true..

but anyhow, to get so close to being able to power through it.. and then just throwing everything out the window (again, if true.. because ongoingly it just seems to amazing to actually believe.. and maybe that is part of the reason that many of us keep bringing it up)...

A fact of the matter does remain that many of us do not need to hear about extreme examples, such as mindrust, in order to appreciate that there are a decent amount of less extreme scenarios in which guys are selling way too many bitcoins too soon.... but even bitcoin can be quite forgiving to the ones who are not selling 100% because they still look like geniuses when they might end up with ONLY 40% or even less of their original stash... maybe in the case of mindrust, he also appears decently smart because even though he had 10 BTC, he still has around 1BTC plus the many shitcoins that he owns.. so maybe in terms of dollars, he is looking pretty smart (even though many of us recognize the severity of what had been left on the table in his case - and thereby the opportunity costs that played out with his situation in particular.. and might be part of the reason that he has discontinued popping his head into this thread because almost no matter what he says.. absent some BIG ass admission of fuck up and getting the fuck back on the bitcoin wagon, will be bashed the fuck out of).

[El duderino_]

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

No time for actions, watching Bayern-Psg .....

[JSRAW]

Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order. 

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1379770685401268229?s=20

[JayJuanGee]

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

Exactamente!!!!

The singing llama is back..


Welcome back singing llama(#nohomo).

 

Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order.  

Hahahahaha

Nice lil troll there buddy.

 


Not gonna do it  (of course, I do have preset circumstances within my already existing system that would allow for the cancelling of such buy orders in the event of certain factual events, but the setting forth of those exceptions to the rule would be besides the point of this post.. in which dee buy orders (down to extremes) remain.. largely "because I can,"  and I give no shits...... hahahahahahahaha)....

The subtext, of course, is that LN also has issues (not least requiring on-chain capacity) that also make it not a solution and people need to pull their heads out of the sand about why Bitcoin is losing market share.

Oh gawd...

Bitcoin is losing market share.. what a bunch of bullshit to be spouting out this nonsense, again.

[d_eddie]

Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order. 

Hahahahaha

Nice lil troll there buddy.

-snip snip snip-

Come on now JJG, it takes a whole hell of a fucking wide definitioning of "troll" in order that said definitioning could possibly include a peep advising the removening of stale underpricened buy ordenings, to the extent that this peep is actually seeming to suggest that. Amirite?


(Is imitation the highest form of flatterening?)

[JayJuanGee]

Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order.  

Hahahahaha

Nice lil troll there buddy.

-snip snip snip-

Come on now JJG, it takes a whole hell of a fucking wide definitioning of "troll" in order that said definitioning could possibly include a peep advising the removening of stale underpricened buy ordenings, to the extent that this peep is actually seeming to suggest that. Amirite?


(Is imitation the highest form of flatterening?)

Well, there might be some rightness in your unrightness.**

I will grant you that.. good ole buddy.  #nohomo      

By the way, you can get 99% of the WO gang to "come after me" on this point, and I already got my system that I have been working on since about mid 2015.. so not going to change it.. took me like 5.5 years to build up those buy orders and to have such a wonderful cushion of libertad.  

Sucks to be anyone who has been in the BTC game in some kind of similar situation as what mine was who does not have a lot of cash in reserves.. that's part of my sympathy thinkenings in regards to those kinds of folks who have failed and refused to pee pare their lil selfies adequately both psychologically and financially, currently...

Of course, no two peeps are exactly alike, but feeling pretty damned good (and smug) these days.. to have an investment that is likely around more than 10x of the tops that were contemplated upon getting into this bad boy #justsaying.  

** Note: Personally, I do not necessarily consider all trolling as a "negative" thing.  Accordingly, a somewhat broad appreciation of trolling could be considered as focusing on some particular individual circumstances and continuing to come back to the topic in a kind of persistent way.... so in that regard, I have been trolling phillipma1957 quite a bit in recent months... and I do not really have bad intentions about it, but I am still tending to kind of harassing him about a variety of circumstances and kind of harping on and repeating themes in various posts responding to him.. in recent times...

Fact of the matter is that I am not really that bothered by some of the trolling that I am suggesting in this regard.. at least, not so far.. because it has not really gotten to very negative levels, yet.. .

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

Thanks for the tip, sold all my stash. Thank god I got out when still ahead.

Cut your looses, gooses!!!!

You will thank me, and my good ole buddy proudhon later... perhaps.

Yall selling today or hodling?
My gut is saying sell and watch for 52k.
My mind says do the opposite of what everyone else is doing and gobble some up.
They are both wrong 50% of the time.   

Buy if it goes down and sell if it goes up (but don't sell too much).   

[free-bit.co.in]

Yeah, Bitcoin fees are no fun, but Ethereum has it worse especially for transferring tokens and using Uniswap (Uniswap low fee is around $70)..

Segwit lowered the bitcoin tx fee for at least 30%, but we need still to look into ways too improve the Bitcoin on-chain network..the Lighting network is a big improvement but still needs some time that I can use it anywhere.

[JayJuanGee]

PoS ain't happening for Bitcoin. Sure, any altcoin can do it, go ahead.

I agree.  Sort of.  But what stops there from being a fork backed by this "initiative"?

I hope you are right... Maybe I forgot that bitcoin does not give a crap about any "Crypto somethingornother Initiative".

Nothing. Forks happen. It will be... a .. "fork", and not Bitcoin, even if they use the same name. Bitcoin Gold, Diamond, Black, Cash, SV, ... BitcoinFork... does not matter.

We will have an opportunity to split whatever fork coins they make. It's all going back to Bitcoin.

Going to continue as the devil's advocate here, trying to think adversarially.

If they do this they will have a lot of money and high level marketing behind it along with the attention of politicians.  I think it could be a bumpier road than the last fork adventure.

And ... what about all the miners and all time hash rates? They're going to stick to the original. The fork can do PoS if they want.

Ah yes.  That's a tremendous point.  So miners and USAF type users will definitely be aligned in this scenario unlike last time.  That's a fairly large contingent.  I think the majority of influential DEVs are also all in the PoW camp.

Get the fuck out of here with your devil's advocate analysis as if there were any kind of valid claim that POS has any kind of chance in bitcoinlandia.

What the fuck made bitcoin in the first place?  Nearly the whole contribution of bitcoin to the paradigm shifting invention of something that actually solved the double spend problem is proof of work.. if you don't have proof of work you don't have shit.. and almost anyone who is anyone understands that basic fact of what distinguishes bitcoin into the powerhouse and the greatest transfer of wealth in history.. even in spite of a few propaganda speed bumps along the way.

I am still not ready to write off the possibility of this agenda getting pushed.

You did some similar devil's advocate analysis with the BIG blocker nonsense too, if I recall correctly.

Get a fucking grip, cAPSLOCK... #nohomo.

That said, what I think is GOOD about this group is they may be able to figure out some interoperability for their platforms by using something like Liquid, or even establishing their own trusted or federated ledger so that you can do transfers between themn off chain.  Again, I will not likely be using any of these services in any meaningful amount.  But MANY will.

We will see how their various services play out..   and yeah if they create some second-layer systems on top of bitcoin that happen to be some kind of proof of stake, that is not bitcoin..   Don't get confused with bitcoin and systems that are built upon bitcoin..   Bitcoin has proof of work and systems that are built upon it do not necessarily have to have proof of work in order to still be potentially valid system.. and actually, it can be argued that systems built upon bitcoin do not need proof of work because bitcoin already has it... those kinds of systems that are building upon bitcoin are not replacing bitcoin they are complementing it and linking to it.. and bitcoin is doing the final validation of whatever had taken place on their side systems, consortiums or whatever they want to call their various alliances.

Ugh.  Someone whose opinion I respect (Beautyon the Aztec.co fellow) also seems to have gone down the more paranoid thought path about this same issue...  He makes some good points... but sounds even more alarmed than me.

Is that even possible?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1379710923888279552.html

Yes it is.

[friends1980]

Buying the top and hodling hard beyond a new ATH is part of the transformation to a Bitcoiner, isn't it?

If it doesn't kill you, it makes you poorer.

Now that's the birth of a new proverb  

What doesn't kill you makes you poorer

+1 WOsMerit

Covered a "boring" one for you 

Hey thanks I just realized I surpassed my first 500 "real" Merits!

[JayJuanGee]

Poor again.

Come on show us your new buy orders?  

Au contraire, I just fired off a transaction to load some coin onto the exchange. Not sure when I'm going to pull the trigger, but going to take another low 7 digits in profit to calm me down. Shouldn't need to sell any more until the ranch gets nearer to completion; at least a year away.

Heard back from our accountant, and quarterly reporting is pushed out for another month, so I have more time for a price recovery. Would like to go at least a full quarter before I consider selling again, and even then, that'll likely be a big *IF* depending on circumstances.

everyone buys and sells when they must...that's all.

You can create your own "must" situations.  just saying that bitcoin should really give many folks a lot of options, at least for those who had taken a decent position that is somewhat tailored to their situation and also had allowed the passage of time to help to ensure that their position is in profits (and may well be quite considerable profits, which merely provides more options as compared with positions that are in less profits or not in profits).

When your brain is in it's prime (maybe between 10 years old and 35 - just guessing), you could memorize 24 words in an hour or so.. As you get older, or if you might start to suffer deteriorations, you might need a day or even up to a week... so a week at most for memorizing 24 words - absent some cognitive impairment.

Building the words into a story would probably be the way to go. Rote memorization of arbitrary things is difficult.

Ok... fair enough... so yeah maybe quadruple the times that I previously allotted.. and sure maybe we are getting to the point that was previously made that it could take some folks a month to memorize 24 words.. perhaps.

I understand with some hoop jumping that lightning network could have been built without Segwit, but isn't Segwit a foundational layer to lightning network being practically developed? - so in other words, there might not be any need to tout the underlying technology of lightning network (Segwit) even though it is a kind of necessary condition that makes lightning network way more practical... and of course, other second layer solutions that are likely to continue to develop in the years to come are also built upon Segwit - again without having to tout Segwit because Segwit is just a done deal.. so over that.. from August 2017 (even though some folks whined for months and months and months about Segwit, but their whining is kind of (absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) drying up after 3.5 years when they are kind of figuring out that the whining is not really doing much, if any, good..(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) because Segwit is just so much a part of our current little fiend, aka bitcoin and the transition to Segwit is so over, done and kuput. and no need to really talk about it(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..).

Segwit absolutely was being touted as a capacity increase, being as how, theoretically, it allows around 4 times the data. The truth is, however, with segwit, block sizes have plateaued at 1.3MB, a trivial 30% increase and it must be remembered that segwit transactions are bigger than traditional bitcoin transactions too.

Segwit also came about as a compromise solution in regards to some of the phoney baloney that was being touted around in late 2015...and then yeah it took several months to code and to test so it did not go into the code until late 2016.. and then the various shenanigans in 2017 that ultimately got it passed in August 2017...   I doubt it is either a simple story and also your desire to want to but marketing labels on it seems a bit disingenuous, and we also know that once it passed (overwhelmingly by the way) then it was a done deal so I have some difficulties understanding value in continuing to whine about something that is already live... and suggesting that it is not helpful blah blah blah.. as if you are going to persuade people to retract it by suggesting that it is not living up to the hype or whatever, and it does seem to have more than just the narrow purposes that you are proclaiming that it was marketed for.

I don't think it's pertinent to not mention the issue because, simply, it hasn't gone away, as much as it may make some uncomfortable and want to stick their fingers in their ears and shout "la la la", it's an ongoing problem.

I doubt that is what is happening. You seem to be presuming problems that do not exist...

I regularly see old principles of Bitcoin touted here, fungibility, low friction, security and so on, but the truth is that the capacity issue restricts that and other potential advantages, just as the 56k modems we are currently flinging around images of would have crippled streaming if we hadn't moved beyond them. I'll also add that I'm not throwing this out there randomly but only mentioning it when it is relevant (in this case, in reference as to why alts have stolen so much of the market share).

Seems to be a bit random to me.. and I don't really consider the supposed problem to be as much as you are wanting to make it out.. including the bullshit loss of market share that you are suggesting to be supposedly relevant.

Now, although I don't buy into it, the argument that increased block size would damage decentralization could be made but that doesn't mean that you get to ignore those other very real effects of limiting it.

These are old discussion points and seems that the overwhelming evidence remains that small blocks good.. big blocks bad.. so why do we need to discuss further on something that had been resolved around 3.5 years ago, and then we got various bcasher nutjober coins that actually implemented the bigblock nonsense.. and they surely have not been proving any BIG block good thesis.. in fact the opposite seems to be the case with the factual evidence related to those scam coins that pursue your big blocker desires.

Listing pros and cons doesn't involve just throwing away things that don't go your way and pretending that very real things that are happening aren't is not a good way to have a good handle on reality. $20+ fees do not provide a good on-ramp to Bitcoin. Where do you think people are going to go?

Well if people are interested in their long term security they are mostly going to keep their value on bitcoin, and sure maybe they might use some scam shitcoins for transacting or even for getting involved in various other scam coins.. I don't know.. the evidence seems to be that people are going to bitcoin rather than the various other coins that you are proclaiming to be taking away market share.. and yeah.., get the fuck out of here and go to those coins if you believe that there is anything that is even close to bitcoin for your purposes or whatever, and let's see what happens... each of us is free to make our choices regarding how much to allocate towards bitcoin as compared to other projects and to tweak along the way.. seems to me that bitcoin remains the best overall without anything that is even close, but sure, you can come to your own conclusions and either partially or fully reallocate to those various shitcoins.. By the way, there were quite a few folks that got fucked pretty badly by historically selling their bitcoins and then getting into other coins in the belief that bitcoin was broken or that the various shitcoin(s) were reasonable alternative bets.. maybe they (you) will get lucky this time?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?  I doubt it, but perhaps.

[El duderino_]

Time for a well earned HODLsleep