Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shahzadafzal]

It’s still early days of Bitcoin.
Want proof?
Here traditional media and journalists have just started sitting and telling us about Public/Private Keys

https://youtu.be/Cwgw6dqMY6k

[OutOfMemory]

Seems we're out of the downward channel.

* OutOfMemory prays: Please make it permanent, please make it permanent, please make it....

 

hourly candle: "hold my beer..."
But hey, i got excited a little, better than nothing 

[d_eddie]

Who subscribes to the thesis "One last dump to scare them all"?

[BitcoinBunny]

Now that Philip is gone and Liz is on her own hopefully we hear less from the toxic Harry - Meghan assholes.

[Kylapoiss]

Now that Philip is gone and Liz is on her own hopefully we hear less from the toxic Harry - Meghan assholes.

Activity: 420

Nice activity you have.

[JayJuanGee]

@cryptomanran
Let's bet that $BITCOIN breaks All Time High the day Coinbase lists next week!
https://twitter.com/cryptomanran/status/1380254708506501133?s=21

I bet it magically breaks ATH the day before the Coinbase listing. On Coinbase at least.

I've been shit reporting - again - a bit lately and therefore I'm a bit confused now: could you tell me which Bitcoin ATH you guys mean exactly? The latest one or the one before that?

the latest ATH price from BAT is about $1.38

Huh? 

There is ONLY one ATH.. and currently that is at $61,782 from March 13.

I understand that in 2020 we had a decent amount of talk about the AYH... (the high for the year).. but once we broke $19,666 (which had been the standing ATH from December 2017 until around mid December 2020.. those new ATH became the talking points - except maybe if we are considering some kind of local high.. but there have not been too many local highs since mid December 2020.. I mean not really enough time has passed to cause any of those other to be worried about numbers..  to become very relevant in the whole scheme of things (at least so far).

from $20 (two pizzas) for 10000 btc

No no no. Going that much back makes no sense. It was completely unreliable territory price-wise.

Markets as we know are just an exercise on price discovery, since its creation bitcoin should have held a very high price but it didn't, even now the price is very low compared to its real value but unfortunately we have to wait for the masses to wake up, as such I agree with your notion that prices back then should be disregarded, if anything I wonder if in 20 or 30 years once the value and the price of bitcoin finally match each other if people will think of bitcoin trading at 60k in the same way in which we think of those 10000 BTC being used to buy two pizzas and will disregard everything which happened before 2021.

You are bringing up some interesting observations WXA.. .which contributes to my assessment that we should be continuing to account for the early dates if we want to understand bitcoin overall.  Of course, there are going to be platforming ups along the way, and the stock to flow charts already seem to account for those platforming ups.. but even within each of the platforms there exit price ranges and price dynamics that are understandable considering which platform is being assessed.. so I am sticking to my guns and asserting that either $1 or the beginning of 2011 is a sufficiently valid starting off point because by then,  there had already been a decent amount of BTC price discovery, even if considered somewhat inadequate in terms of price discovery tools that were introduced thereafter.

[Arriemoller]

Fun fact, ABBA got famous by winning the Eurovision song contest in 1974 in Brighton, I watched it with some friends at a friends place in Rosengård (now a no go zone) and then biked home in the middle of the night, I was 14 and it was totally safe.
The song is called Waterloo, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp1_OKawHYw

Sorry guys, I mislead you, I was 13, I really do suck at math.

[lightfoot]

Fun fact, ABBA got famous by winning the Eurovision song contest in 1974 in Brighton, I watched it with some friends at a friends place in Rosengård (now a no go zone) and then biked home in the middle of the night, I was 14 and it was totally safe.
The song is called Waterloo, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp1_OKawHYw

Sorry guys, I mislead you, I was 13, I really do suck at math.

That was pretty amazing. I always wondered, were they playing instruments live or was it synced to a track? I think it was live.

[20kevin20]

It’s still early days of Bitcoin.
Want proof?
Here traditional media and journalists have just started sitting and telling us about Public/Private Keys

https://youtu.be/Cwgw6dqMY6k

I think in a matter of decades* those from 2020-2021 will be seen the same way we see today those people who got into Bitcoin back in 2010.

The average guy is so far behind they don't even know what inflation or fiat is. I don't expect them to wake up too soon, lol.

*years....., if a miracle somehow happens

[lightfoot]

On a happier note, some serious science on the vaccine effectiveness: Quick summary, you get the vaccine you will not die of COVID and you can't really spread it.

https://www.bioserendipity.com/vaccine-effectiveness-against-severe-covid-19-and-transmission/

[JayJuanGee]

~skip (billions of words)

....I was stunned by the length of your post

You must be new here....

Get out of here:  "billions"  I mean, have I even typed a billion words in my whole lil selfie life?  I wonder?

You are so cringe I cannot even help my lil selfie in eyerollening uie puie.

 


 

This shows just how shit the altcoin performance is.

Someone spread $1000 over top 10 cryptos and held for 39 months:



Without BTC he would be down to $843 despite the bull runs (from $900 invested).
If he had invested his $1000 in only BTC he would be up to $4560.

People just don't get it. Maybe 1 in 50 in the comments on reddit see what's happening. Unbelievable.

I predict there will be millions of poor people after the next bear market and upswing considering what's going on with altcoins right now.

But of course also millions of rich BTC holders and probably already some trillionaires.

This data is really not relevant, picking a random date to buy and a random date to sell will give you a random PNL. What if that was invested a year or two years before, what if those prices were updated during spring 2018 when many altcoins boomed, what if we wait some more months or years. I mean nobody really knows and I don't see how you can get anything of substance from that data. If anything it looks like the bull market is not ending anytime soon so not sure why picking a date around now to sell would be any good.

Yes I agree that the next bear market could produce many poors and many riches as did the last one and the one before it, but not necessarily because one chose Bitcoin over whatever altcoins or vice versa.

I agree with you that the chart might be a bit random, but still it seems that BitcoinBunny reached the right conclusion, even if the data does not really support it very well.  On the other hand, the implication of your conclusion, kaicrypzen, seems to be that investing in shitcoins can be a good idea, especially if you happen to be "smart" about it...

yeah, right, you are smarter than the market.... How much are you investing into shitcoins as compared with bitcoin?  Hopefully you are not allocating too much into that shit that you have to continuously monitor for a potential exit scam or some other rug pulling baloney.

[Arriemoller]

Fun fact, ABBA got famous by winning the Eurovision song contest in 1974 in Brighton, I watched it with some friends at a friends place in Rosengård (now a no go zone) and then biked home in the middle of the night, I was 14 and it was totally safe.
The song is called Waterloo, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp1_OKawHYw

Sorry guys, I mislead you, I was 13, I really do suck at math.

That was pretty amazing. I always wondered, were they playing instruments live or was it synced to a track? I think it was live.

The Eurovision song contest is live, that's why there is a conductor, among other things, (dressed as napoleon).

[BobLawblaw]

you get the vaccine you will not die of COVID and you can't really spread it.

Assuming one survives the vaccination process...

[El duderino_]

I'm putting us here in the bull run compared to past cycles (on-chain data supports this).

Double top theory: IMO #Bitcoin  is completing the first of the "double tops", and turns out an ascending triangle going sideways is all we get.

Volatility is visibly lower this cycle.


https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1380546857097515008?s=21

Yes, would work for me.
Hopium on Saturdays.
Light up the green bar!!!

[El duderino_]

Dammit, sad sad news.
Dark man X, one of the best...
R I P brother.

[20kevin20]

BitcoinBunny reached the right conclusion, even if the data does not really support it very well.

I've made the same chart, but with BTC pairs instead of USD:



Quite difficult to recover from a -95% loss, even with a strong bull market.

[Biodom]

^ they are clearly 'oscillators' as woonomic calls them.

People are chasing because it is difficult to discipline oneself and buy something that is worth 58K vs 0.01 or whatever in between.
It is the same on the stock market: how many are buying BRK-A at 400000 or GOOGL and AMZN at $2-3K/share vs buying some much cheaper stonks?
In fact, there is one mutual fund (that performed quite well over the years, incidentally) that buys only stocks below $30 or something like that.
That table above is presenting a story that is not compete of course, but in general it is a correct one: don't buy a "portfolio" of alts instead of bitcoin.
You will lose in a long run.

[JayJuanGee]

Use case #1 also implies that the true value of BTC per whole coin is indeed going to 100 million USD. Eventually. It will take decades maybe. Around the year 2050 we will find out. Some of us will be gone, others will have just "matured" ... We will see... we will see...

Sure, it could take another 10 to 30 years for BTC to reach $100 trillion.. which is a mere 100x from here.. or $5.5 million per coin... but it does seem that you are outlining this in a bit too much of a bearish way because the more bullish scenarios could actually quite easily reach $5.5 million per coin within 2 cycles.  I don't need to elaborate on the numbers, do I?

You misread what I wrote, and even quoted it. I said 100m USD per coin, not $5.5m.

Well you probably said something wrong somewhere else.  So there.   


 

My bbbbaaaaadddd.   


By the way, yeah.. $100million per coin would be 18x higher than $100 trillion market cap that I was talking about in my earlier attempt at a response..

So those are some pretty damned BIG numbers that should imply to a lot of people that bitcoin remains a very asymmetric bet to the upside - especially if you believe those kinds of numbers.. which they are not totally pie in the sky.. , and you do not need to put very much money into bitcoin (aka corns) in order to do quite well..

Many of those who even got into corns before the latest run up, and let's say have a few coins would be doing quite well at $5.5 million per coin and even MOAR weller with 18x that amount.  Hard to imagine those kinds of numbers, I must say, but surely not really that far out of reach in terms of even continuing with lesser extreme BTC price upruns, as I had already attempted to outline in my earlier attempt at a response.. and I surely am NOT ruling any of that out.. because what's another 18x between "friends", right? including that none of that what I said in my earlier post is really inconsistent with adding another 18x onto the target number.. except maybe it would take another cycle or so to get there.. perhaps? perhaps?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@APompilano
BREAKING: @DanielSLoeb1 and Third Point have revealed that they are holding Bitcoin.

Third Point is a $17 billion hedge fund.

Bitcoin is inevitable.
https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1380621049356824577?s=21


https://t.co/osOsfCtzSm





Pamp eet

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

...don't buy a "portfolio" of alts instead of bitcoin. You will lose in a long run.

I can confirm that.

In the beginning of 2017, my cousin invested $5k in various cryptocurrencies. Currently he is in profit. His cryptocurrency portfolio is worth around $15k. Not bad. That's a 200% gain over the course of just over 4 years. No bank could ever offer that. Cryptocurrencies are so good, aren't they?

Here's the fun part: had my cousin invested his $5k solely in Bitcoin (as I suggested to him, but he didn't listen to me, because "it's too expensive"), he would now be the owner of 5 BTC = $290k. That's a whopping 5700% gain over the same period as above.