Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

By the way I would bet you (a kind of gentleman's bet of course) in the event that we could narrow down the terms of such a bet to a short period of time, for example if you are suggesting that we would already be seeing these kinds of "puny" dynamics playing out in the next halvening (therefore it would be noticed and verified by 2025-26) .. which seems a bit bonkers to me (requiring the grippening getting), then maybe we could have a bet that goes to that point.

Without betting any "real" money (aka king daddy, aka the corn etc.), I think we could have already begun observing some relative puniness in this cycle, if there weren't so many big players really getting in the arena and putting their money where their tweets are. The new players, institutional or silent as they may be, are positively skewing the market by pouring a previously unseen money supply into the market. So there is that. Can this welcome skewing go on at this rate? 2x a year is the kind of exponential growth that sooner or later hits the ceiling with a sore head. The flattenening (?) part of the S-curve, in udder words. We'll have to wait 2024 to actually see where things are going. But it's always like that with the corn, isn't it.

Seems to me that neither of us can go fuck our lil selfies until we verify the terms of our nonsense, if such nonsense were to be in existence?
 

For dee fucking our lil selfies bit, I have no problems to keep waiting a lil more. If you feel any rush, please go ahead

Personally, I get the sense that you are framing our current situation in a very similar kind of somewhat "annoying" conservatism as you had been expressing in the months immediately preceding April 2019.

Sure, nothing wrong with having some reservations in your concerns about where the bull market might go and even having some mental and financial preparedness for DOWNity in case UPpity comes to an end sooner than expected... So yeah, no problems with that.

Maybe my "problems" to the extent that they can be described as "problems" remains that you are seeming to make a pretty strong assertion in regards to your anticipation of future bitcoin cycle "puniness", but you are making such proclamations in such a way that causes me to speculate that there might be a bet in there somewhere, but we just have to narrow down the potential terms a wee bit more, but I believe that even though you are having feelings of a certain kind of concreteness in your speculations about "puniness" but you are a wee bit afraid to put them into writing into a kind of way that it could be bettable.  

Maybe I need to try to narrow down the terms of what you seem to be saying, and then we can try to go from there in terms of tweaking the terms to make them acceptable.

I'm as bullish long term as anyone. What I'm suggesting - and I may of course be wrong - is that future growth will be less tied to the 4-year cycle than it is now. The halvening effects will be slighter and slighter. But still number go up, much up number go.

EDIT
A different angle for the same rationale: the availability of btc on exchanges - that are the spot price makers basically - is already much less dependent on periodic miner sales than it used to be. So the immediate effect of miners getting fewer coins as a reward will impact the price less and less. Of course, increasing scarcity will make its job behind the scenes one way or another.

[cAPSLOCK]

I have to admit... I decided to look for any ancient DOGE wallet I could find... still no doge wallet yet, but I found my first Bitcoin-QT wallet.dat!!!

Heh.  Kinda cool.  I am gonna save this thing.

My first ever transaction (I think) was among this lot:

https://blockstream.info/block/0000000000000ab9b39e61cff860ec65e65738fd2faeac5acbd136676912a7bb

I figure I am safe hiding amongst the 162 (lol!!) transactions in there...

At first I loaded up the wallet.dat into Bitcoin-QT, and as it was syncing it ran across something and my balance shot up to 0.4.  I have to admit, I was excited. I wanted to be able to tell my wife, hey I found $24k in my pockets when I was doing the laundry.

But alas.

[El duderino_]

[Richy_T]

I will write one hundred times

Haha. I'll confess this quote crossed my mind a couple of days ago.

[Richy_T]

Needs an extra frame with pitchforks and torches appearing in their hands.

[JayJuanGee]

@LinaSeiche
They say he has a whole BTC

Long gone times

Yep.... for sure... harder and harder to get a whole coin... and even a year ago (or less) it was way more possible to get a whole coin, but funny how times (and options) change, and so quickly.

I will write one hundred times

That sounds like advices.    unsolicited, tooooooooo

and we also had that at the time ... for the younger ones among us, this is a 5 1/4 inch disk
would actually make a very good coldwallet, wouldn't it?

1. You'd have a hard time getting hardware or equipment to read anything from that.
2. Storage is limited to either 360k (180k if one sided) up to maybe 1.2mb?
3. That thing is not really water resistant or fire resistant, easily crushed or destroyed.

I like the idea though, it's not much better than a paper wallet.

Given the readability issues, a paper wallet (or even writing down seed words on paper or some other medium of storing keys in analogue form) seems way more reliable than data on a 5 1/4 disc..  Should be obvious, no?  And with the analogue format, it can be kept in more than one location, too.... just like multiple 5 1/4 floppies can be made - but you still have the readability problem if backups are in the same format.. but might not be the same problem with other analogue such as key or seed words written or kept on some other analogue medium.

I will write one hundred times

What's brevity?

Good question.  And also, I was wondering if there were some existential requirement for wit, even though I do believe that I have some decent capacities for wit from time to time.. maybe not always, but a decent amount of time and such level of wit (or lack there of) does not really seem to be causing me to be a curmudgeon or anything like that.

[Richy_T]

I figure I am safe hiding amongst the 162 (lol!!) transactions in there...

I dunno, some of those analysts have some skills. Though probably more concerning for some of us is that bitcointalk used to link usernames to addresses and on to blockchain.info too. It seemed less of an issue at the time.

At first I loaded up the wallet.dat into Bitcoin-QT, and as it was syncing it ran across something and my balance shot up to 0.4.  I have to admit, I was excited. I wanted to be able to tell my wife, hey I found $24k in my pockets when I was doing the laundry.

I found a nice amount on a pool the other day. I usually mined p2pool but had a regular pool as a backup. Not 24k (yet) but not to be sneezed at.

[heslo]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/13/economy/consumer-inflation-march/index.html

Looks like people are starting to realise inflation has definitely started and is only going to get worse. Interesting times ahead

[Elwar]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/13/economy/consumer-inflation-march/index.html

Looks like people are starting to realise inflation has definitely started and is only going to get worse. Interesting times ahead

The Fed is now saying that they're going to allow inflation to happen for a temporary period...

Just like the 2 weeks to flatten the curve...

[rolling]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/13/economy/consumer-inflation-march/index.html

Looks like people are starting to realise inflation has definitely started and is only going to get worse. Interesting times ahead

No doubt there is inflation much higher than that. Probably best not to quote an entertainment site on the matter. CNN is a propaganda mill, not a reputable news source.

[Arriemoller]

'The military doesn't suck, it's a branch of the government given the task to safeguard the freedom of the citizens of the country. They only obey (legal) orders. If you think their actions suck it's the politicians you should bitch at, not the ones that, risking their lives, obey their orders.

Try to convice that to the people of Myanmar.

I speak of course of democratic countries.

But who defines what is "legal", oh wait the government

Military is just a tool of the government, so all the gov has to do before using its military is to justify their own requests as legal  





International Criminal Court officials sanctioned by US
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54003527

No, it's not the government that makes the laws, its the parliament.
Division of power, checks and balances, remember

[heslo]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/13/economy/consumer-inflation-march/index.html

Looks like people are starting to realise inflation has definitely started and is only going to get worse. Interesting times ahead

The Fed is now saying that they're going to allow inflation to happen for a temporary period...

Just like the 2 weeks to flatten the curve...

I don't think they're "letting" it happen, it's just a consequence of the games they're playing. Not too much they can do about it other than to try to hide it

[Arriemoller]

'The military doesn't suck, it's a branch of the government given the task to safeguard the freedom of the citizens of the country. They only obey (legal) orders. If you think their actions suck it's the politicians you should bitch at, not the ones that, risking their lives, obey their orders.

Try to convice that to the people of Myanmar.

I speak of course of democratic countries.

But who defines what is "legal", oh wait the government

Military is just a tool of the government, so all the gov has to do before using its military is to justify their own requests as legal  

International Criminal Court officials sanctioned by US

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54003527

Theft: the illegal taking and carrying away of the personal goods or property of another
Taxation: the taking and carrying away of the personal goods or property of citizens

It's ok when the government does it.

Also "safeguard the freedom of the citizens of the country"...

umm...you don't really believe that bullshit do you?

Please...when in the history of the Universe have governments safeguarded freedom? Seriously...nobody cares one bit about freedom, believe me I've tried to be free but run into nothing but roadblocks from...guess who?...governments and their order followers.

All those citizens living in countries close to Russia disagrees with you.

[Richy_T]

[Elwar]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/13/economy/consumer-inflation-march/index.html

Looks like people are starting to realise inflation has definitely started and is only going to get worse. Interesting times ahead

The Fed is now saying that they're going to allow inflation to happen for a temporary period...

Just like the 2 weeks to flatten the curve...

I don't think they're "letting" it happen, it's just a consequence of the games they're playing. Not too much they can do about it other than to try to hide it

They have literally said they will let inflation get out of control. "we'd rather deal with the consequences of a bubble popping than try to prevent it".

[DaRude]

'The military doesn't suck, it's a branch of the government given the task to safeguard the freedom of the citizens of the country. They only obey (legal) orders. If you think their actions suck it's the politicians you should bitch at, not the ones that, risking their lives, obey their orders.

Try to convice that to the people of Myanmar.

I speak of course of democratic countries.

But who defines what is "legal", oh wait the government

Military is just a tool of the government, so all the gov has to do before using its military is to justify their own requests as legal  





International Criminal Court officials sanctioned by US
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54003527

No, it's not the government that makes the laws, its the parliament.
Division of power, checks and balances, remember

In modern politics and history, a parliament is a legislative body of government...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament

are you splitting hair or shifting the blame here?

[gallianooo]

Maybe we should close the chart screen till the monthly closing. 

[BitcoinBunny]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/13/economy/consumer-inflation-march/index.html

Looks like people are starting to realise inflation has definitely started and is only going to get worse. Interesting times ahead

Noticed my barbers, who are finally allowed to reopen has gone up by 25% for a basic haircut. It's inevitable due to the nonsense Corona lockdowns (I don't think such services should ever have been stopped) but it does show the kind of inflation level we are talking about in general day to day things.

Coupled with the increase in house prices, 1.6% as was told by economists in The Netherlands last week is just a fucking insult to people's intelligence.

Get real. We are talking at least 10% overall just in the last year.

My salary has only gone up by 4%, and I'm in the lucky category in that respect.

BTC at $1 million+ seems more inevitable each day.

$60,000 not holding at the moment. Those fucking weekend bears.

[somac.]

$60,000 not holding at the moment. Those fucking weekend bears.

Yep, every weekend this happens, getting tedious.

Temp low now I reckon, going back to 61000k now. Just needs to break that to get us out of this down channel.

[BobLawblaw]

Poor.

Again.