Torque
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August 01, 2021, 03:55:31 PM |
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Of course, that thread link is a great reference to attempt to devolve into stock to flow analysis - even though I still remain of the opinion that stock to flow has never been close to breaking, and so whatever, I might be getting into linguistics a wee bit, because personally, if the price were to underperform and stay in this range or lower until the end of this year, then sure maybe some of the curves of the model would need to be shifted downward.. but I would still not concede that the model would be broken, even if it were required to be shifted downwardly in order to have better co-integration of data to the projections.
Another aspect is that there may well be some pretty powerful folks (whether we refer to them as bearwhales, governments, status quo financial institutions, other entities/persons who would like to cripple or kill bitcoin, those who want to manipulate bitcoin to make a profit, or some combination of these folks/entities) who would like to provide both factual and proclamation evidence that stock to flow is broken... yeah, play around what they like, they might get lucky in killing/crippling bitcoin, but the more likely outcome is that bitcoin prices are going to revert back to the mean of the stock to flow model, even if it could experience extended periods of divergence... 6-24 months or even longer, perhaps? perhaps?
I agree. I believe the S2F model is sound...for now. PlanB is given quite the runway in that the price still has all the way to 2023-2024 to violently correct upwards to the mean trend line and still be in play. If it doesn't after that, well then, the model will be broken. I feel that tracking "adoption" vs. price is meaningless at this point, as retail Average Joe investors as a group have an insignificant/inconsequential amount of price pressure capability compared to high net worth, big finance, and institutional adoption.
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ChartBuddy
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August 01, 2021, 04:01:28 PM |
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Toxic2040
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August 01, 2021, 04:26:35 PM |
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Shut up ChartBuddy, George Soros never said that; besides who said you had to take his opinion as fact. Nobody's holding a gun to your head, believe what you want to believe. It's a free country despite what statists like you have to say. Is the one you call "ChartBuddy" here in the room with us now? +1 WOsMerit --------- Recent candle [img=44]https://i.imgur.com/Hx4JOTN.png[/img]
Currently, the market is going up a lot We hope that the market will cross $75000 teams in a very short time.
Are the ones you call 'teams' here in the room with us now? ---------- $160k+ by December 31st, 2024? possible Seems a wee bit bearish and conservative, but whatevers... still in the positive direction.. to get another 4x+-ish in 3.5 years... Way better than 6% price appreciation per year.. for example. #justsaying--------- The current situation reminds me so much of the spring of 2017. Then the leading exchange Bitfinex had problems with the banks and the fiat withdrawals were suspended for 3 months. The users converted usdt to BTC and reversed the trend from negative to positive. Because of that they didn't convert back to fiat and the price went from below 1K up to nearly 3K. Now the leading exchange Binance has similar issues, although withdrawals are not banned. But nontheless the users prefer to convert usdt to BTC and leave the exchange because of the coming derivate suspension and because of the fiat limits/fees and difficulties related to usdt wallets. And since the trend has changed, they won't convet back to usd or usdt on other exchanges immediately. This may turn to be a major boost for this bull run, since it is not caused only by the whales but from millions of users around the world. Another factor for the current bull run is that many peeps sold at 30K with the intention to buy at 20K and even lower. Now they see this plan didn't work so they have no choice but to buy higher. And of course the mass adoption explosion is also an important factor. The number of BTC users has doubled in the last 6 months, adding 2 mil per day new users. According to 2 surveys I've read, the percentage of users has increased from 1% to 2% worldwide only in the last 6 months. The previous doubling needed 10 months. And we are still far far away from the real mass adoption above 80%, which will happen in the coming years. The same exact numbers apply for the institution adoption. So, as good the current situation might be, we can expect much higher prices in the next 5-10 years. The only problem which can delay this increase with up to one cycle is the large scale derivate manipulation, which we've seen in 2018-2020 and the last 2 months. Wall Street shorting companies are certainly the biggest enemy of any asset. But they can't handle the BTC 24/7/365 trading and the limited supply. So at some point their shorts will be liquidated no matter how hard they dump on the spot market. The price tends to return to the fair levels corresponding to the mass adoption with bull cycles which blow away the shorters. We see how fast the options to get BTCs are miltiplying. This leads to an increasing rate, so I would expect reaching the 80% level much sooner than we think. And if the current fair price should be around 50K-100K, then it should be 40x higher - 2-4mil. Of course, this is just an opium, there will be many FUDs and bans along the way. But still it is good to be prepared somehow if we know in general what is going to happen sometime in the near future. Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels. #bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1421725631365238785+1 WOsMerit ---------- #haikusundayHaiku, freeing mind Observing, now building strength For me, this is zen At twilight, he waits Knight watches, his roan crops grass Tomorrow a dream Will we wake from this? Question not, live the moment For is that not life?
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Kylapoiss
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I don't know where I'm going, but I'm going.
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August 01, 2021, 04:31:52 PM |
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I am glad I was wrong, but does this go on?
Are we in the clear now or will there be a (proudhon) surprise?
gembitz is active again, is that a good or bad sign?
So many questions.
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gembitz
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August 01, 2021, 04:53:37 PM |
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I am glad I was wrong, but does this go on?
Are we in the clear now or will there be a (proudhon) surprise?
gembitz is active again, is that a good or bad sign?
So many questions.
good morning sir yeeeee
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ChartBuddy
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August 01, 2021, 05:01:27 PM |
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suchmoon
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https://bpip.org
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August 01, 2021, 05:11:58 PM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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That's exactly correct suchmoon.. even though you were coming off as a bit of a smartass...
Sigh... my bad... I was aiming for a full-on smartass obnoxious troll Anyway, I'm very skeptical of TA in general and I can't see any plausible use for trailing indicators in particular. I'm either hodling or not, I don't need colorful drawings to tell me that not selling at 38k (or whatever the 4h golden cross is at) was a good choice, a week after it happened. Actually I'm pretty sure I posted about it in real time using no charts, just my gut feeling and wishful thinking, so if that doesn't make me a smartass I don't know what would.
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shahzadafzal
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August 01, 2021, 05:40:20 PM |
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Off topic This is mind blowing and amazing zoom out of the sharpest view of the Andromeda Galaxy ever, showing more than 100 million stars. Imagine if there is a only 0.00000001% chance of life that means there must be at least 100 civilizations in andromeda galaxy. I wonder what currency would they be using? https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1421113398650150912
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ChartBuddy
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August 01, 2021, 06:01:40 PM |
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eXPHorizon
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Precision Beats Power and Timing Beats Speed.
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August 01, 2021, 06:15:33 PM Last edit: August 01, 2021, 06:30:31 PM by eXPHorizon |
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Off topic This is mind blowing and amazing zoom out of the sharpest view of the Andromeda Galaxy ever, showing more than 100 million stars. Imagine if there is a only 0.00000001% chance of life that means there must be at least 100 civilizations in andromeda galaxy. I wonder what currency would they be using? https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1421113398650150912What makes you think that Other Civilizations would have the same Value System as us ? What if they do not have money at all and are just compassionate to each other like Advanced Beings should be or if they arent advanced at all .. which brings me to the Question, are the Horned Chimplings in here with us ? Otherwise a very nice find. Knowing the Galaxy day by day more.
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Biodom
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Off topic This is mind blowing and amazing zoom out of the sharpest view of the Andromeda Galaxy ever, showing more than 100 million stars. Imagine if there is a only 0.00000001% chance of life that means there must be at least 100 civilizations in andromeda galaxy. I wonder what currency would they be using? https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1421113398650150912tch[click]klar, of course, with its 21mil 'large' units and 2.1X10^15 'basic" units...as long as they have a decimal system . Kidding aside, I posit that there are no civilizations anywhere beside here or they are so far away as to be not reachable in a reasonable time frame even at the light speed. WE have to spread out-it is our new Manifest destiny. In 10-100 mil years we will be everywhere (at least in our supercluster), hopefully. An awesome pic, though.
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xhomerx10
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August 01, 2021, 06:41:02 PM |
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Off topic This is mind blowing and amazing zoom out of the sharpest view of the Andromeda Galaxy ever, showing more than 100 million stars. Imagine if there is a only 0.00000001% chance of life that means there must be at least 100 civilizations in andromeda galaxy. I wonder what currency would they be using? https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1421113398650150912 It's an older galaxy than ours so in all likelihood, any inhabitants with the ability to convert energy to money have likely already succumbed to universal warming.
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xhomerx10
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August 01, 2021, 06:45:01 PM |
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Nice! At least all that flare gas burning isn't for nothing. Does this mean Bitcoin becomes the new petro-dollar?
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shahzadafzal
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August 01, 2021, 06:51:51 PM |
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No please... we had enough with China's Coal and now this Saudi Oil?... Ok unless they are planning to go green and make it solar or window powered mining which I highly doubt.
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ChartBuddy
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August 01, 2021, 07:01:26 PM |
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El duderino_
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BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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August 01, 2021, 07:23:51 PM |
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W T F is this… Strange kind Sunday sorcery! Pump’s the other way.
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sirazimuth
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born once atheist
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August 01, 2021, 07:27:25 PM |
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Off topic This is mind blowing and amazing zoom out of the sharpest view of the Andromeda Galaxy ever, showing more than 100 million stars. Imagine if there is a only 0.00000001% chance of life that means there must be at least 100 civilizations in andromeda galaxy. I wonder what currency would they be using? https://twitter.com/WorldAndScience/status/1421113398650150912There will be more of these, even more spectacular, coming soon, to an interwebz near you.I love science
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OutOfMemory
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Man who stares at charts (and stars, too...)
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W T F is this… Strange kind Sunday sorcery! Pump’s the other way.
Seems to turn around Some peeps are not done selling No problem, we'll wait A matter of time We won't see these dumps for long Bulls still in command
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