Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[Biodom]

Bitcoin ETF approval, halving coming, interest rates probably going down in 2024 are good but the fact is miners are selling, ETFs inflows are good but not great, companies are being prudent and lay off workers.

The effects of higher interests are increasing everyday since loans are coming due for renewal everyday.

I see a new test under 40K$ before halving.

Oh gawd..
 
Good luck with that.

Sure it is possible, but hoping for down (or waiting and failing to buy) when we already had a correction down to $38,500 seems to be not very reasonable to expect.

Actually if we ever go under 40k again it would be far more likely to happen after the 1/2 ing.

I think we have a shot to finally do an early ATH say 70k in late March with a lot of sideways action  Until a better ATH in the late fall.  But we all know these guesses are for entertainment more than anything else.

I am having trouble with all of these various predictions too.. because surely once we get above $55k then that is no man's land between $55k and $82k.. so  there still could be some resistance to actually get into $55k, but it is hard to say.

By the time the halvening comes the 200-week moving average will likely be right around $33k, so I am having trouble imagining that BTC spot prices is going to come that close to the 200-week moving average absent just a quick dip.

So, for sure, any BTC price theory that I have right now is jumbled and full of contradictions.. including that usually we do not test the previous ATH until around half a year after the halvening, but for a lot of reasons these are not normal times. ... so even if we might say that we get stuck in the $80k to $100k range, but that makes no sense either because the BTC price does not tend to get stuck at the top.. we will go to tops and then come back down a bit, so it could be the case that BTC prices go to almost $100k and then get stuck in the upper $70ks to lower $80ks for some time... and no matter what I consider, it seems difficult to really put it into a reasonable framework, and maybe it makes more sense to go to $120k and then come back and get stuck between $80k to $100k... all within this calendar year.. and that seems overly wishful thinking but it does not make sense to me to get stuck in no man's land and it also does not make a lot of sense to stay in this $40k to $55k range, either.. especially given how many BTC the ETF providers are continuing to have to buy in order to cover demand.. so it kind of makes sense that the BTC price goes up to accommodate that level of demand on liquidity.

I am not going to be surprised by anything, yet like you I am trying to consider more likely and less likely scenarios, and I just have troubles considering what I consider to be less likely scenarios whihc is BTC prices getting stuck in noman's land - even if that might be what ends up happening.

Imho, it is simple: we are left-translating either because the prior cycle was somewhat diminutive (because of COVID, China, etc) OR we are left-translating because people with money decided that this time the game has to play out (at least initially) BEFORE the election.

It could also be that both factors are in place simultaneously PLUS the expectation of QT-->QE transition that is getting close.
Anyway, this is my rationalization, but bitcoin has proven to be unpredictable in a short term.

[bitebits]

Except maybe the MtGox sales but that would be corrected within a day or two

Don't be so quick to dismiss the effect that the mtgox coins could have on the market.  Last time I looked the discussion was that about 130,000 BTC were going to hit the market once the coins are distributed.  After April we're looking at 450 BTC per day being added to the system.  That's like damn near dumping a year's worth (289 days) of BTC supply on the market overnight.  While there are certainly funds and OTC buyers lining up to get their hands on a massive chunk of BTC without moving the market, there's no way to tell if those 130K are going to be absorbed or cause an absolute market crash until it happens.  My hope is that people with deep pockets will see this as an entry point the way Tim Draper did back in 2012/2013 with the government auction of a massive amount of coins, but I wouldn't say it's certain.

[...]

Major difference compared to the Tim Draper case, buying the Silk Road bitcoins in 2014, is that the MtGox bitcoins already have owners.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Gachapin]

Except maybe the MtGox sales but that would be corrected within a day or two

Don't be so quick to dismiss the effect that the mtgox coins could have on the market.  Last time I looked the discussion was that about 130,000 BTC were going to hit the market once the coins are distributed.  After April we're looking at 450 BTC per day being added to the system.  That's like damn near dumping a year's worth (289 days) of BTC supply on the market overnight.  While there are certainly funds and OTC buyers lining up to get their hands on a massive chunk of BTC without moving the market, there's no way to tell if those 130K are going to be absorbed or cause an absolute market crash until it happens.  My hope is that people with deep pockets will see this as an entry point the way Tim Draper did back in 2012/2013 with the government auction of a massive amount of coins, but I wouldn't say it's certain.

[...]

Major difference compared to the Tim Draper case, buying the Silk Road bitcoins in 2014, is that the MtGox bitcoins already have owners.

Sure ....but yet another major difference is that it was 'only' 30k BTC and these coins could be scooped up with a measly 19 million $ by Draper.  
If 30k of the Gox coins (which is just 23% of the total) were to be sold, it'd need 70x the capital with today's prices.

[Gachapin]

when ever i feel anxious i like to think about reindeer

I know.. I'm probably alone with this opinion but what I like about this girl is actually her cute face.

... and no, I'm not gonna resize this gif for my quote !

[ChartBuddy]

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[Ambatman]

I know.. I'm probably alone with this opinion but what I like about this girl is actually her cute face.

... and no, I'm not gonna resize this gif for my quote !

Yeah she cute
Is not that am complaining but girls posting their half nudes now a common place on social medias sigh
The trend current generation emulate is troubling.
 
But those asset I believe bounces like Bitcoin after a dip.

[Hewlet]

Still bulling🏆
It's now $44k and still climbing

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BitcoinBunny]

Us Brits should just take it up the ass whether we like it or not, and that's that.


UK workers must accept lower pay deals to help beat inflation, says Bank ratesetter
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/pay-rises-profits-must-curtailed-134029674.html

[ChartBuddy]

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[BitcoinBunny]

O/T

Indeed, I always thought the number 1 issue with animal cruelty in 2024 is the fact that merry go rounds have fake horses and other fake animals.

The fucking horror is unbearable to be honest, I don't know how people can stand it personally.
I think I will cry myself to sleep until ride makers face facts and fix this! 

How about Godzilla merry go rounds from now on only. Would he mind?
Of course the nuclear back spikes would be a bit uncomfortable, but so be it.

PETA targets Kansas merry-go-round maker over animal-themed carousels
https://www.foxnews.com/us/peta-targets-kansas-merry-go-round-maker-animal-themed-carousels

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[philipma1957]

Buddy almost got us over 45k.  I saw 44985 on aggr.trade


I really would like to see some upwards action.

50k by the weekend seems nice.  Even if it is wishful thinking.