Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

$100k per BTC seeems inevitable.

There's been a lot of talk about a $100k party. I'm not going to make it (my family situation won't allow it), but I'm happy to donate 0.1 btc to the 100k party.

That is a very generous offer.

F*ck me.

I deleted that post shortly after, realized I've had too much to drink.

Oh well, now since it's quoted, there's no point denying I said that. I'll just have to suck it up and stand by my words.

If this 100k WO-party for some strange reason will ever happen, I'll help finance it. I guess I could transfer the btc to a multisig wallet, shared with me and a couple of trusted WO-members who are ready to make that party happen.

That'll pay for a couple hookers and a pile of blow!

Haha, no one gonna hold you to a drunk post.

unless it was something stupid and it was only beer money.

[Hueristic]

Jesus the new Intel chip is a fucking Dog.

https://odysee.com/@HardwareUnboxed:2/amd-ryzen-7-9800x3d-vs.-intel-core-ultra:f


*These are just the gaming results but it is fucking brutal how slow this shit is.

[PremiumcryptoHub]

The four year bitcoin cycle is dead, IMO.

This time is different:
1. Purchase of $MSTR completely new supplies
2. $MSTR copy-cats/other corporate buyers
3. State buying/establishing $BTC reserves
4. A massively pro-Bitcoin administration in the US for the next 4 years

$BTC is only going to go up from here, with some volatility.

X

[Krubster]

@Krubster

You don’t owe anybody anything. You didn't sign a contract, just put it down to having too much to drink and forget it. Nobody is going to get annoyed or give you negative trust or anything. We all talk shit when we’re drunk. If there is a 100k party, nobody would expect 0.1BTC off you. And quite frankly at 100k per coin, if people can’t afford to pay for their own shit, they shouldn’t attend.

That'll pay for a couple hookers and a pile of blow!

Haha, no one gonna hold you to a drunk post.

unless it was something stupid and it was only beer money.

Yeah, thanks. We all say stupid things when drunk.

I was here 2013 when there was talk about a 1k party. That never happen.

I doubt there will be any party this time, but if it ever happens, I guess some sort of establishment has to be booked. I'm happy to help with that.

I take for granted that anyone who attend, will cover for their own drinks, hookers and blow.

[OutOfMemory]

Jesus the new Intel chip is a fucking Dog.

https://odysee.com/@HardwareUnboxed:2/amd-ryzen-7-9800x3d-vs.-intel-core-ultra:f


*These are just the gaming results but it is fucking brutal how slow this shit is.

AMD always had that technology edge, from the Athlon XP series of Processors onward. Nice to see that they now also took over the lead in the speed domain.
Well done, they deserved it, showing brilliant engineering.
Intel fucked up too many times, they needed to patch their chips because of security holes so often, so they are still fast according to lab results, but real-world use has become a different boat. Then there's the energy consumption, which is showing that Intel's technical design is quite far from ideal.

The four year bitcoin cycle is dead, IMO.

That's a bold statement there, IMO.

[Gachapin]

I don't know if we fully realize what good times  have come for BTC. 4-5 years ago we dreamed of ETFs and that one day the US would consider Bitcoin as similar to gold. ETFs have been a reality for a long time now, and the huge influence in this market is evident. I generally do not approve of Trump as a person and because of his policy towards Ukraine. But it is a fact that this is the first president to speak out in favor of Bitcoin and promising to make it a national reserve asset. This is already happening in the state of Pennsylvania. Coincidentally or not, it was precisely the state that decided the battle in his favor. I think it's safe to say that Trump won thanks to the votes of bitcoin holders as well. What's next - first for it to actually happen in the US. If the bill to buy 1 million bitcoins is approved, it will have a "huuuge" ()  impact on the market. Soon after, Europe and China will follow suit. I am absolutely convinced that Germany will one day buy the same bitcoins that it sold at many times higher price. All this makes me happy and proud that hodlers like us, the WO gang, have always been visionaries and envisioned things long before they happened. And this is rewarded with the profit we have.

Trump is completely unpredictable in this case because he was the president of the US from 2016 to 2020 and at that time he said that Bitcoin was a scam - and towards the end of his term he passed some very unfavorable laws for Bitcoin which were then mostly revoked by the Biden administration, and it should also be taken into account that futures and spot ETFs were approved precisely during the mandate of the Biden administration.

Trump doesn't have to "thank" anyone except those with big wallets who financed his campaign, and ordinary people served the purpose of voting anyway, and for the last time as Trump promised them.

Even if the US starts buying BTC for its reserves, I don't believe that the EU would follow that example, let alone China. The ECB with Lagarde at the head has an extremely negative attitude towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, while China with its communist ideology does not want anything it cannot control, and even less something in which the US will have a large share.

As for Germany, it was not the German government that seized or sold BTC, it was a German province where the seizure took place, and they only followed the law in liquidating the seized funds. In addition, I think that the member states of the Eurozone cannot make any investments of this type without the ECB - a few years ago, the question of selling part of Italy's gold arose, considering that at that time they were the third country in the world in terms of gold reserves. As far as I remember, the ECB commented that selling gold to refinance debts is not an option.

can't say much against your points. However, being anti Bitcoin first and then pro Bitcoin is quite a normal journey for people. With Saylor being probably the most known of these cases...

[Gachapin]

Even if the US starts buying BTC for its reserves, I don't believe that the EU would follow that example, let alone China.

If the US starts buying BTC as a reserve plan, that sends the signal to every other country that BTC is better reserve currency than USD. And since the entire world keeps reserve in USD, it'd encourage everyone to dump USD for BTC.
..

I think if that was true I guess most countries would have already dumped their USD for Gold...

[BlackHatCoiner]

I think if that was true I guess most countries would have already dumped their USD for Gold...

Why? What's the last time the US government issued an act to buy gold as "strategic reserve" or anything similar? The gold in their reserves is kept for legacy reasons.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

I think if that was true I guess most countries would have already dumped their USD for Gold...

Why? What's the last time the US government issued an act to buy gold as "strategic reserve" or anything similar? The gold in their reserves is kept for legacy reasons.

So when the US bought gold other countries dumped their USD?

[Gachapin]

220 coins in order to move the price to 95k on stamp

It's crazy how valuable a single coin has become...  or how thin stamp's order book became 
 

[JayJuanGee]

All this makes me happy and proud that hodlers like us, the WO gang, have always been visionaries and envisioned things long before they happened. And this is rewarded with the profit we have.

Gentlemen,
Believe me when I say that the price is the consequence of being right, not the cause.
And the feeling of being right, and being right with you guys, the WO gang, is a by far superior feeling than seeing the price going into six figures.

Why everyone so lovey dovey when the BTC price is going up?  especially Italians.. .#justsaying

I think ole Sammy BF and his FTX shenanigans messed up the previous ATH and I believe we will blow past 100k just like we blew past 20k... well have to keep our eyes open or we'll miss it.

look at the wall at 100k though lol

gonna bounce hard off that for a bit methinks

however being wrong is a personal hobby of mine.

Oh gawd.. 

What a noob.


After all this time, in these here parts, you actually believe in "walls"?

You must not know nuttin...


Likely that you've been reading (and actually taking seriously) too many of Philipma1957 posts. 


 

newhedge.io
Latest Block:   870574  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.6263%  (1679 / 1685.30 expected, 6.3 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   95672703408223.94                           
Current Difficulty:   101646843652785.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 101314915413128 and 101324161161474
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3266% and -0.3175%
Previous Retarget:   November 4, 2024 at 5:20 PM  (+6.2444%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 6:33 PM  (in 2d 8h 20m 31s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 6:35 PM  (in 2d 8h 22m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 13m 30s and 14d 1h 15m 36s

This bears watching.
we went from 68k to 91k

and we lost hashrate.
It could mean the major mines are very filled with gear.

Much like when my 300kwatt mine became power maxxed we found we need to dial back a bit. One would think that the big players would want to load up on gear.
This bears watching to see if we are going to see mining hashrate will be flat into a massive price rise.

Too small to know if it is a real trend.
BTW in the 2017 runup this happened prices mooned like made and hash rate did not.
hears to that.

At least you seem to be moving a bit off your earlier theory that BTC prices are supposedly constrained by hash (meaning that BTC prices follow hash)... so little by little... Rome wasn't built in a day.

#justsaying 

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

This 100k wall looks impenetrable. Bitcoin, please prove me wrong.

You too??

 

I don't know if we fully realize what good times  have come for BTC. 4-5 years ago we dreamed of ETFs and that one day the US would consider Bitcoin as similar to gold. ETFs have been a reality for a long time now, and the huge influence in this market is evident. I generally do not approve of Trump as a person and because of his policy towards Ukraine. But it is a fact that this is the first president to speak out in favor of Bitcoin and promising to make it a national reserve asset. This is already happening in the state of Pennsylvania. Coincidentally or not, it was precisely the state that decided the battle in his favor. I think it's safe to say that Trump won thanks to the votes of bitcoin holders as well. What's next - first for it to actually happen in the US. If the bill to buy 1 million bitcoins is approved, it will have a "huuuge" ()  impact on the market. Soon after, Europe and China will follow suit. I am absolutely convinced that Germany will one day buy the same bitcoins that it sold at many times higher price. All this makes me happy and proud that hodlers like us, the WO gang, have always been visionaries and envisioned things long before they happened. And this is rewarded with the profit we have.

Trump is completely unpredictable in this case because he was the president of the US from 2016 to 2020 and at that time he said that Bitcoin was a scam - and towards the end of his term he passed some very unfavorable laws for Bitcoin which were then mostly revoked by the Biden administration, and it should also be taken into account that futures and spot ETFs were approved precisely during the mandate of the Biden administration.

Trump doesn't have to "thank" anyone except those with big wallets who financed his campaign, and ordinary people served the purpose of voting anyway, and for the last time as Trump promised them.

Even if the US starts buying BTC for its reserves, I don't believe that the EU would follow that example, let alone China. The ECB with Lagarde at the head has an extremely negative attitude towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, while China with its communist ideology does not want anything it cannot control, and even less something in which the US will have a large share.

As for Germany, it was not the German government that seized or sold BTC, it was a German province where the seizure took place, and they only followed the law in liquidating the seized funds. In addition, I think that the member states of the Eurozone cannot make any investments of this type without the ECB - a few years ago, the question of selling part of Italy's gold arose, considering that at that time they were the third country in the world in terms of gold reserves. As far as I remember, the ECB commented that selling gold to refinance debts is not an option.

Wow  Lucius.  You really believe that ECB and some of the other supposedly bitcoin hostile jurisdictions are not going to be forced into changing their tune.

Game theory is a bitch, and they should not be so dumb as to ignore game theory for too long.. and sure there are always going to be winners and losers.. early adopters and laggarts.. and it is not going to be exactly black and white, even though the earlier that anyone comes around to bitcoin (even covertly), the better they are likely going to end up.. .. and yeah, maybe some of them are talking down bitcoin while they are secretly accumulating it, too?

[BlackHatCoiner]

So when the US bought gold other countries dumped their USD?

Last time the US bought gold as a reserve asset, the whole world was still under the gold standard. Currently, the whole world is under the fiat standard. That's the difference.

[Biodom]

The four year bitcoin cycle is dead, IMO.

This time is different:
1. Purchase of $MSTR completely new supplies
2. $MSTR copy-cats/other corporate buyers
3. State buying/establishing $BTC reserves
4. A massively pro-Bitcoin administration in the US for the next 4 years

$BTC is only going to go up from here, with some volatility.

X

Nah, it probably isn't.
Once the price overextends into the "stratosphere", it would still go down more than 50%..maybe 60 or even 70%.
If the peak would be at 135K, then it might not decline more than 50%-->67K
Alternatively, if the peak would be at around 230-320K, then maybe down 65% to 80-112K if I would be optimistic.
Still, it would be an advance to an "expected" (from prior cycles) 70% decline.
Personally, I still think that we would decline 70%, but from where would make a big difference...but something like 60-75K at the next bottom might be a realistic number, with 40.5K (coming from a "low" high of 135K) being the harshest and most tearful scenario. The latter would almost completely "kill" MSTR (if not the stock, then certainly their 42B bitcoin yield strategy).

[Gachapin]

So when the US bought gold other countries dumped their USD?

Last time the US bought gold as a reserve asset, the whole world was still under the gold standard. Currently, the whole world is under the fiat standard. That's the difference.

when they bought gold, the world went from a gold standard to a USD standard, because it was backed by gold...

Same could go for when the US buys BTC for backing (which I don't think they will do)

Anyways, every country has already the possibility to buy harder assets than USD, and still they all hold USD. I don't think that would change because of some BTC reserve

[Biodom]

I think if that was true I guess most countries would have already dumped their USD for Gold...

Why? What's the last time the US government issued an act to buy gold as "strategic reserve" or anything similar? The gold in their reserves is kept for legacy reasons.

So when the US bought gold other countries dumped their USD?

Maybe in the last few years (in part)?

[Gachapin]

I think if that was true I guess most countries would have already dumped their USD for Gold...

Why? What's the last time the US government issued an act to buy gold as "strategic reserve" or anything similar? The gold in their reserves is kept for legacy reasons.

So when the US bought gold other countries dumped their USD?

Maybe in the last few years (in part)?

AFAIK the US hasn't bought any significant amount of gold in the recent years... different to China, Russia etc

[BlackHatCoiner]

Maybe in the last few years (in part)?

The US government has not bought gold in the last few years. Especially not for reserve purposes.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gold-reserves

[hisslyness]

Maybe in the last few years (in part)?

The US government has not bought gold in the last few years. Especially not for reserve purposes.

Why would they need too? they convinced the 99% of the population to have faith in the US Dollar...

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Every number from 41k to 93k = Joe Biden
Trump and Musk could be setting up the big short.

Then when all is dumping btc down to 35k and D the shitmcoin down to 2 cents come back and sweep in tons of discount coins.
I am not particularly pro or anti Trump. But he cut all crypto hard and stocks too with his like kind trade rules put in on Jan 1 2018.
I do think we will survive the insanity of the next four years.

I guess I will need to learn more German and Russian to get along.
back on point how high does btc need to go to-in the next 60 days
But for today my L7  burning 3000 watts earns more btc than my four t21s burning 12000 watts.

I watched this  game a long time. That 3000 watts earns as much as 12000 watts will shift.
There are a few ways for it to shift. one of the shifts possible is BTC runs up to 180k in the next 60 days.
I honestly think that a run up to 150k before they swear in Trump is the most likely way  that earning disparity changes.

oh to duderino 95k by sunday night.

Oh gawd.. you come up with some crazy-ass shit sometimes, and sure you are not totally looney either, since you aren't saying things that are impossible to happen.. and even to be amongst motivations of some of the players to make certain kinds of extreme pushes... that sometimes end up going in both directions... but still.. it sometimes it is like you are purposefully downplaying more base-case scenarios .. Occam's razor sorts of stuff.

I'd happily take a bet with you, or another reputable member, that price will go below $40K again before the end of the year (2024).
0.1 BTC is the offer.

Even if sub $40k did not happen after that statement, that statement is not outrageous if no one took the other side of the bet.