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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26818496 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Gachapin
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bitcoin retard


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November 18, 2024, 05:26:29 PM

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WIr_lD3l9Fg
ChartBuddy
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November 18, 2024, 06:01:15 PM


Explanation
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


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November 18, 2024, 06:12:56 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Gachapin (1)

well sunday ended and monday has begun.

buddy be drifting sideways.
Buddy is ready to draw BTC$100k chart, it's nice on Monday  Wink

Hopefully Buddy has enough digits.

I was here 2013 when there was talk about a 1k party. That never happen.
Yeah, the long winter in the 400s put a damper on that.
that cycle was the longest bear/sideways of all.  I remember how even many in the WO lost faith, and wondered if Bitcoin would ever make a comeback.  Some thought it could take a decade or so.  Stunning if you think about where we are today..

I also remember myself "making money off trading" in 2015, when we went almost flat for a year.  End of 2015 price shot up und left me standing there with a bunch of useless cash. When price almost doubled and I was too stubborn to buy back in.  Got fed up with "trading" ever since

So frequently, that is what happens with trading bitcoin, because the explosive move upward paralyzes a lot of folks and leaves them without many if any coins... .

With my own strategy, I was always selling such small amounts of BTC on the way up, yet when the BTC price goes shooting up and so many sell orders are executed, there can be feelings of having way too much cash, even if the amounts sold at each time was relatively small amounts.... part of the reason that I frequently suggest to not sell any BTC at all unless you know that you have enough or more than enough, since there should be no expectation to be able to buy back sold coins at a lower price.

It is a tough balance because also some people prematurely conclude that they have enough coins or more than enough coins.. and even I am not completely innocent of such errors in my thinking or ways of framing my own BTC holdings, my practices and why I am doing what I am doing (and the ways that I am doing what I trying to do).

I wonder what he uses for seed storage/backup.

Just imagine him (or anyone of us, for that matter) losing the master wallet seed. Shocked

Historically he had been accused of ONLY holding all the keys at Coinbase, and then he hinted at having several custodians, so it seems that his custodial solutions are not very clear - though maybe I am missing any further disclosures that he had made in more recent times - since I would speculate that anyone investing in his various bitcoin accumulation (and HODL forever) strategies would want to have some assurance that he is not going to end up losing the coins.

[...as above...]
he once said they use an institutional custodian
Really? I would think this would be against his principles ("not your keys, not your coins" and all...), but with such amounts to deal with, I can (kind of) understand him. Also, it's MicroStrategy, not Saylor personally.

To date, Saylor has not been much of a vocal advocate of NYKNYC, and he has been greatly criticized for making statements to the contrary, including criticizing cryptobros who insist on holding their own keys.. including that he had to walk back some of the levels of the harshness of his statements that seemed to overly criticize those advocating self-custody.

It is possible that Saylor might come around on this self-custody point (especially since a lot, if not all of bitcoin's power comes from abilities to self-custody it), yet it is a bit of a problematic area with Saylor, his practices and what he seems to be advocating, at least up until recently.

I agree with you that it would be quite powerful if Saylor were to lose access to a big chunk of coins...probably contributing to some turbulence in the BTC markets too, depending on how it plays out, even though as we realize positive side effects of taking coins off of the market does increase the value of the coins actually held by others... Saylor knows about that, since he also talked about dying with his coins... though he would not be able to die with MSTR's coins unless there were flaws in their custodial arrangement in which ONLY he had the keys.

Reminds me of a bit of a joke and it would be funny if Saylor was giving some presentation and then mentioned that he had all of his coins on a ledger that was dangling on his neck (and you know how so many bitcoiners don't have very good impressions of the security of ledgers - but also the OPsec would be a strange sight too).. or if he said that he had all of the seed words memorized.. would he use 12 words or 24 words?  He's got a big brain, so he could probably handle 24 words, and scatter them through at random points in his various presentations... 331,200 BTC hidden in plain sight.   Shocked Shocked

[edited out]
he once said they use an institutional custodian
Really? I would think this would be against his principles ("not your keys, not your coins" and all...), but with such amounts to deal with, I can (kind of) understand him.
I remember him saying that they use a custodian in an interview once.

As a public company they are held to different standards I guess.

There are rumors who these custodians are
https://cointelegraph.com/news/arkham-intelligence-microstrategy-bitcoin-fidelity

Oh yeah, I now remember some of the rumors of MSTR coins being held with Fidelity too, and yeah there are way more obstacles to self-custody with public companies and other kinds of fiduciaries like pension plans, financial advisors, trust administrators, and some others.

[edited out]
oh yeah same circus is visiting Canada!

Another very important thing Schwab says here is that even Putin was in the "Young Global Leader" Program. Which really makes me wonder how much of all this US - Russian tensions are actually real and how much is a script for the public in order to accept all this money going to the weapon industry or so

It seems to me that Simon Dixon has a lot of good perceptions and takes in regards to the various seemingly contradictory financial and/or political relations (and how they relate to bitcoin), and fairly regularly, he goes over those kinds of matters in several of his Bitcoin Hardtalk podcast episodes.
Gachapin
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bitcoin retard


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November 18, 2024, 06:58:50 PM
Last edit: November 18, 2024, 07:17:41 PM by Gachapin


seems not to age so well
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November 18, 2024, 07:01:12 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


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November 18, 2024, 07:37:38 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

Go up, scrape the sky
Fall back down and stir the mud
Liquidity hunt
#haiku

Maybe this time my attack of your haiku contents will play out MOAR better in my favor.. .. so here "we" go..

I agree that if we end up getting some kind of a blow off top, then the downs and the UPs will end up extreme, and surely some would assert that our most recent move from $69k to $94k was such a magnitude that it requires a great correction, yet our "great correction" does not seem to be happening, and I am not sure if the non-happening of the great correction comes from MSTR buying $4billion-ish puts too much of a floor on the correction, or if something else might be happening in regards to our previous suppressed prices that happens to have had been coinciding with decently ongoing increased absorption of more and more of the bitcoin supply by the BTC spot ETFs and other various related contagions in regards to the sign that bitcoin needs to be added to the investment portfolios of normies, and extending to institutions and governments.

We seem to agree in that blow off tops are likely to not stop taking place, yet in the last year-ish, we have gone from $26k-ish to our current BTC prices, yet we have hardly had any significant or meaningful correction to really contribute towards an assessment of any kind of large and/or meaningful BTC price correction.
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November 18, 2024, 08:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Hueristic
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


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November 18, 2024, 08:09:03 PM
Last edit: November 18, 2024, 09:14:44 PM by Hueristic


I wonder what he uses for seed storage/backup.

Just imagine him (or anyone of us, for that matter) losing the master wallet seed. Shocked


Arkham Intelligence: Coins held by Fidelity and Coinbase Prime custody


I wonder what he uses for seed storage/backup.

Just imagine him (or anyone of us, for that matter) losing the master wallet seed. Shocked

Historically he had been accused of ONLY holding all the keys at Coinbase, and then he hinted at having several custodians, so it seems that his custodial solutions are not very clear - though maybe I am missing any further disclosures that he had made in more recent times - since I would speculate that anyone investing in his various bitcoin accumulation (and HODL forever) strategies would want to have some assurance that he is not going to end up losing the coins.

*we don't have to care what he alluded to or hinted at, transparency is a feature.
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November 18, 2024, 08:46:53 PM
Last edit: November 18, 2024, 09:15:37 PM by d_eddie

Go up, scrape the sky
Fall back down and stir the mud
Liquidity hunt
#haiku

Maybe this time my attack of your haiku contents will play out MOAR better in my favor.. .. so here "we" go..

the downs and the UPs will end up extreme
MSTR buying $4billion-ish puts too much of a floor on the correction
blow off tops are likely to not stop taking place

I basically agree with much of your analysis about past, present and future blow off tops.

However, that haiku was merely intended to comment on the most recent price action. We passed through extremes from under 88k to over 93k, with wide and quick ups and downs often spanning over 4k. In 5 days, we had an ATH, and after that we significantly oscillated 6 times. That doesn't seem physiological post-ATH price dynamics to me. It smells like stop hunting. Likely just shaking the tree and clearing the road for big moves ahead.



Haikus are so terse
That's the point of short poetry
Being misunderstood







#haiku

ChartBuddy
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November 18, 2024, 09:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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November 18, 2024, 09:11:37 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Quote
https://x.com/AP_Abacus/status/1858598010235596964
Andrew (@AP_Abacus) on X

UPDATE: confirmed @BlackRock $IBIT options to begin trading tmrw.
• liquidity, liquidity, liquidity.
• this is effectively four months early.
• notice it is $IBIT first.

Options are a double edged sword. I can think of a few points.

PROS

- Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
- More appeal for institutions
- An instrument for living off one stash without selling (save some "unfortunate" unforeseen bullish run). Just sell out-of-the-money calls and pocket the premium. If it goes too much up... well you'll have to give up your precious at the strike price of the option you wrote, rather than at the higher market price at the time of expiry.

CONS

- More appeal for deep pocket sharks, who will have a relatively cheap manipulation tool. Cheaper than futures anyway.
- It makes btc less and less of a hodler centric asset, but this is already happening, so maybe it's just me.

There are no doubt many more issues I haven't though about yet, and a few more I can't even contemplate given the fact I'm in no way an expert.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and doesn't even look like it, I think.
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November 18, 2024, 09:18:04 PM

Quote
https://x.com/AP_Abacus/status/1858598010235596964
Andrew (@AP_Abacus) on X

UPDATE: confirmed @BlackRock $IBIT options to begin trading tmrw.
• liquidity, liquidity, liquidity.
• this is effectively four months early.
• notice it is $IBIT first.

Options are a double edged sword. I can think of a few points.

PROS

- Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
- More appeal for institutions
- An instrument for living off one stash without selling (save some "unfortunate" unforeseen bullish run). Just sell out-of-the-money calls and pocket the premium. If it goes too much up... well you'll have to give up your precious at the strike price of the option you wrote, rather than at the higher market price at the time of expiry.

CONS

- More appeal for deep pocket sharks, who will have a relatively cheap manipulation tool. Cheaper than futures anyway.
- It makes btc less and less of a hodler centric asset, but this is already happening, so maybe it's just me.

There are no doubt many more issues I haven't though about yet, and a few more I can't even contemplate given the fact I'm in no way an expert.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and doesn't even look like it, I think.

I think he forgot the biggest con, dilutes built in scarcity.

Thats why gains have slowed down by an order of magnitude.

*another inconvenient truth the plebs don't want to acknowledge because it goes against the narrative.
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November 18, 2024, 09:21:38 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (8)

Almost exactly 10 years ago... I watched the price of Bitcoin go up to over $1000.  I was camping over the US Thanksgiving with my family.

Today?  Bitcoin doing 2-3k swings like it's nothing.  Wink

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November 18, 2024, 09:25:33 PM

Quote
https://x.com/AP_Abacus/status/1858598010235596964
Andrew (@AP_Abacus) on X

UPDATE: confirmed @BlackRock $IBIT options to begin trading tmrw.
• liquidity, liquidity, liquidity.
• this is effectively four months early.
• notice it is $IBIT first.

Options are a double edged sword. I can think of a few points.

PROS

- Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
- More appeal for institutions
- An instrument for living off one stash without selling (save some "unfortunate" unforeseen bullish run). Just sell out-of-the-money calls and pocket the premium. If it goes too much up... well you'll have to give up your precious at the strike price of the option you wrote, rather than at the higher market price at the time of expiry.

CONS

- More appeal for deep pocket sharks, who will have a relatively cheap manipulation tool. Cheaper than futures anyway.
- It makes btc less and less of a hodler centric asset, but this is already happening, so maybe it's just me.

I think he forgot the biggest con, dilutes built in scarcity.

How do options dilute the scarcity more than other derivatives such as, say, futures/perps?

Thats why gains have slowed down by an order of magnitude.

That might also be due to the fact that the market is larger by an order of magnitude or more now, so it takes proportionally more money to move it. It's right that the price is made at the margin, but the margin, too, is orders of magnitude larger.
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November 18, 2024, 09:26:10 PM

Almost exactly 10 years ago... I watched the price of Bitcoin go up to over $1000.  I was camping over the US Thanksgiving with my family.

Today?  Bitcoin doing 2-3k swings like it's nothing.  Wink



and today's big walls consist of 200 coins  Cheesy
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November 18, 2024, 09:43:07 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

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November 18, 2024, 09:56:27 PM
Last edit: November 18, 2024, 10:07:40 PM by eXPHorizon



Just remember that you chose Bljatcoin and that the events to come are a direct consequence of your choices.

Ya fkin greedy clowns
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November 18, 2024, 10:01:12 PM


Explanation
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November 18, 2024, 10:08:21 PM
Merited by fillippone (3)

Rumors are that options trading will go live tomorrow or Wednesday for the ETFs.  Is anybody here planning on going full ape on some 1-year call options?  I'll admit that I've taken a look at MSTR options in the past but the cost to trade them is crazy.  I wonder if it will be realistic to take a bet for the December expiry options without having to spend five figures to do it...  While I'm sure there will also be folks who think this is a top and will trade options accordingly, I think this has the potential to make a significant impact on the price of BTC.
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November 18, 2024, 10:27:10 PM

Hey guys, how do you see this?

Trump set to hold private meeting with Coinbase CEO



Quote
Donald Trump is set to meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong today to discuss potential appointments for his upcoming administration, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.

This marks the first meeting between the two since Trump’s election victory and signals the president-elect’s evolving stance on crypto.

At a Bitcoin conference earlier this year, Trump pledged to establish a Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council focused on creating clear regulatory guidance if elected.


Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-and-crypto-coinbase-meeting/


I know that Trump is also interested in buying an exchange called Bakkt, I don't know, but this looks promising, I imagine that the tycoon will also want to have his good personal BTC reserves, I don't blame him, I think anyone would do it.

If all this brings positive effects for BTC, then welcome, the price will continue to rise with all these things , without a doubt the power often makes shortcuts to what could take a few years to achieve such adoption.
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