Blood everywhere.
Good to not be alone.
Why do I feel Michael Saylor tweets always bring a drop down in market price.
I'm buying this dips I don't know if I would be able to see such price anymore, my pregnant wife said it's better I buy more now and I'm fulfilling her desires though I want it too but I've got more courage to buy more since she's in support.
Surely, way better if living in a partnership that both of the main players are oriented in a similar direction, including that sometimes there can be some lack of certainty regarding how to play matters in terms of the level of aggressiveness in regards to regular buying, and surely holding back value for dips is not even without its controversy. including that dips happen so fast, so that there could be a buy on the dip, and even strategic buying of a dip during the week, yet the price keeps dipping.. so then is there any money left? Maybe money comes in every week, but there could be money that is held at the side for other purposes? Should that extra money be used for buying dips?
Sometimes also some partners have trouble even knowing how to hold money on the side, since as soon as money is available they might think of many ways that they would like to spend such money rather than having such money for dip buying purposes.
I am not even going to proclaim to be a dip-buying expert, because there have been so many times that I have run low on money (meaning I tend to buy back too soon), yet at the same time, I would like to speculate that my dip buying practices have gotten better in the past 11-ish years that I have been trying to learn from doing it. I know that I am less emotional than I used to be, but the emotions are still always kind of there.. especially when the BTC price is moving a lot, and the emotions are present for either direction. .just probably having some differences too for one direction versus another.. since how can we feel impending dread when the BTC price is going up (except feelings of empathy for the no coiners and perhaps fear that they no coiners are not going to like it.. so fear in that sense?)
He is literally proving to the deep pockets of the world you can buy the top and still profit over time.
I feel like we are seeing more than one person playing 2 or 3 (or 15) moves ahead in a way that makes 70% of the world think they are evil or fools... 29% think they are crazy, while 1% or less is mouth agape as they dunk the ball.
It takes two opposite opinions to make the market.
I like the guy, but he is a "cowboy", for sure.
Plus, take a look at MSTR history...it's not their first rodeo (to continue with the same vibe).
They already had a prior stratospheric rise that ended up in a stupendous plunge of more than 99% ($313 high on March 14, 2000, $1.75 local low on Apr 3, 2001 with final lows later in the year). Things are different now, of course. Still, something to remember.
EDIT: MSTR at a bazillion would not upset me one bit...it just feels "forced' and at some point smart cookies like PTJ and, perhaps, Druckenmiller, will start playing against MS...just an opinion. BTW, both PTJ and Druckenmiller were EXACTLY right on bonds immediately after the ease started, and these opinions were very paradoxical few months ago.
It will surely be interesting to see how some of these future battles play out, especially the ones battling "against" the cornz, if there are seemingly dumb fucks (who you believe to be smart fucks) who so choose to enter into such a contra-cornz battle.
Many of us (who are not too whimpy in regards to bitcoin) can recognize and appreciate that one of the largest (if not the largest) wealth transfers is in the midst of happening, so which side of such wealth transfer do you think is the side to be on? coiner? no coiner? or some variation?
Sure, you are also referring to leverage, yet how is the leverage structured? it seems to me that much of Saylor's(MSTR's) leverage is structured in such a way that the BTC price would have to go quite lower than it is today, and even stay at such "quite lower" prices for the terms of the various nearly free debt obligations.. such as staying 70% below current prices for 4-5 years or more.
Another angle of the Saylor/MSTR play is that quit a lot of the debt is converted into company shares, so it is not really debt any more it is just a part of the MSTR balance sheet to have BTC on the books, and another angle is that the convertible bonds angle also get cashed out if the BTC price goes up (something like 30% or so.. I cannot remember if some of the issuances have differing terms), and so if the BTC price goes up, that convertible debt turns into equity and is no longer debt. sure they could sell their MSTR after the point of conversion, but it seems that all of the various financial instruments being issued by Saylor/MSTR (at least so far) have been accretive to the current MSTR shareholders, so they are gaining in their BTC per share.. sure if they BTC price goes down, then the accretive nature of the MSTR shares in regards to the quantity of their BTC will also go down at whatever rate BTC is going down... so sure, like a further leveraged play.. but the BTC are still not tending to be encumbered (like being used as collateral).
My own perception of MSTR risks relate to their custody arrangements (or even regulatory risk - for the USA to start to presume national security interests in regards to MSTR's bitcoin stash) in regards to their various large tranches of BTC rather than their various ways of using debt leverage to ongoingly acquire more bitcoin.
JJG HAS every five year buy and hold been a winner?
pretty sure it has.
not sure how many other items that are purchased and held five years are always a winner.
By now, you should realize that I really don't like to think about bitcoin like in those kinds of lump sum buying kinds of ways, and sure technically you are correct that in an overwhelming number of situations a person could have bought any time, including some highest price point in the past, and 5 years later be in profits.. even though there are some rare exceptions around buying BTC at the 2017 top and potentially being in the negative at various points in late 2022 and even for a day to two in 2023 when the BTC price again dipped down into the $19ks.
There is a website (and a forum thread) that specifically shows various BTC buying price points (dates and prices on such dates) and thereafter when it would have become profitable, after such purchase timelines.
Here is the thread:
HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong handsI find it a bit annoying when some guys might proclaim that BTC was bought on a certain date, and then proclaim BTC's performance based on such purchase date.
Personally, it seems to me that anyone seriously getting into bitcoin, including getting into bitcoin at the top, may well still be advantaged, even by a misopportuned entry point, by continually, ongoingly, persistently and consistently buying bitcoin...
So in that regard, I consider the DCA charts to be way more representative of where any serious (non-gambling) bitcoiner should be and could be with his bitcoin accumulation practices based on the exercise of reasonable and prudent ongoing BTC stacking practices.
Even if we take a misopportuned time of getting into bitcoin at the top of the BTC market in late 2017 at or around $19,666 (perhaps a bad point to get into bitcoin since in late 2022, and even at a point in early 2023, there were windows in time in which such buying at the top would have been in the negative, even if the timeline had been slightly greater than 5 years, since BTC prices had dipped to such levels.. and we also could proclaim that in real terms BTC's performance was even worse based on such hypothetical top of the 2017 cycle purchase. Let's describe these in terms of three Hypothetical guys.
Hypothetical 1: Most excited guy, who takes all of his 401k that amounts to right around $300k, that he had building up for 20 years, and he invests such $300k into bitcoin in late 2017 at right around the $20k top. So he gets right around 15 BTC, which I think is the dumbest and worst of the scenarios, yet still today, that guy has a
BTC spot price value of about $1.45 million and a 200-WMA value of about $645k, even though in November 2022, he may well would have had been in the negative.
Let me give you two other BTC investment scenarios that involve the same 5 -year timeline, that I would consider more realistic, even if someone had ended up getting excited about BTC and had ended up FOMO front loading his investment into BTC at the top of 2017.. or at least starting to invest into BTC at the 2017 top in the last example.
Hypothetical 2: Second most excited guy who frontloads and then DCA's an equal amount over 5 years. Let's say that the guy has a lifetime savings investment portfolio of around $300k, and so he uses half of it to buy BTC, and so with the various costs, he ends up paying right around $20k per BTC, so he front loads with $150k and ends up with 7.5 BTC. Maybe the guy knows that he has a pretty decent salary, and so he can invest right around $30k per year into bitcoin for each of the next 5 years, which would be right around $600 per week, and so after 5 years, he would have had matched his initial $150k invested, and
so at the end of the five years, he would have gotten an additional 14.6766 BTC, and so his total cost would have still been $300k-ish, and he would have
22.1766 BTC with a current value of $2.15 million and a 200-WMA value of close to $1 million. Of course, after 2022 he could have had continued to accumulate BTC at some reasonable rate, if he would have considered that it would be a good idea to continue to accumulate BTC based on his then financials and including his thoughts of where he had gotten to after such 5 years of BTC accumulation.
Hypothetical 3: Guy who invests a similar amount into bitcoin as the other two yet decides not to frontload and who just DCAs $300k into bitcoin over 5 years. So he ends up investing
$1,200 per week, and he ends up with about 29.3532 BTC, which ends up with a
current spot value of about $2.85 million and a 200-WMA value of $1.262 million.
Any of these guys could have continued to invest into bitcoin after their initial 5 years of investing into it, yet my point is that their starting investment styles ended up affecting their BTC accumulation quantity and probably even their mentality in regards to bitcoin, so you likely realize that I consider persistent and ongoing accumulation of BTC to be a more serious and;/or self reinforcing strategy that it is less gambling laden as compared with guys who seem to jump in blindly with a kind of gambling mentality, a lack of persistence and also are not necessarily remaining ongoing with their BTC accumulation plan that would allow them to reinforce a kind of commitment to their investment that goes beyond just lumpsum jumping in... and I am surely not opposed to either lump sum jumping in and/or frontloading an investment into bitcoin, yet I also think that DCAing into bitcoin can complement the earlier lump summing and with an ongoing persistent buying approach, there also could be opportunities to buy more BTC at various dip price points along the way too.
Poll
