Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ivystar5]

- LA is on fire...
- Bitcoin is dipping.....
- I bought more bitcoin.....

Live

https://www.youtube.com/live/L261T4qkv20?si=3llFx0hEaXoYrqMz

 Not Hollywood!!  Who will entertain us now?!

Lots of celebrities already evacuated their homes. Hollywood is in chaos now, maybe it's time to stop entertainment and be a bit serious for nothing.

It's the other way around.

Bro said it's not a complete circle, so you're probably going to be in the dips or up and downs. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

Breaking: The African Bitcoin ecosystem has grown by 77%, expanding from 15 countries in Q1 2024 to 21 countries in Q1 2025!

With 17 new projects added, Africa continues to lead in innovation, financial empowerment, and economic freedom.

Explore the latest infographic below!

please stop posting these "breaking" twitter copies without anything of your own.... it sucks...

[Gachapin]

Crazy, how the market tanked with $3000 after Michael posted this.  

Every time I read anything here about Saylor posting something on Twitter, Bitcoin drops.

I wonder if it's too late to trade that pattern

 If I trade that pattern, I guarantee it wont work so I'll post the minute I even think to do it and then the rest of you should stop immediately.

same goes for me...

thinking about start trading it just to have these Saylor dips go away... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitserve]

Another sell off today FFS. Just when I was thinking we might be ready for the next leg up. Bitcoin enjoys testing us doesn’t it.

What chances do we have of making a new all time high before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th? I think there will be lots of games until that date, some real volatility.  

I think weak hands are getting shaken just before we go up again. We might see more dips, considering how whales love to scare the newbies into selling right before a big move.

More weak hands are still selling?  I am not sure whether I like that theory.

I thought a lot of the dumb money, which would also include weak hands had already sold at or around $100k, so sure we keep hanging out here, and is that causing more of them to sell?  Doesn't sound like a great theory.. not that anything ever makes too much sense in these here parts.. and not even talking about you, personally.

Here is another theory/factor to consider: Some (many?) people already topped their max tax free (or lower capital gains tax brackets) sales for the year 2024 and they resumed with their $100K sales (which may or may not be significant in comparison to their hodlings) in the new tax year. That will pass, though, and the price will be free to rise higher with less sell pressure (until more profit taking at higher prices exceeds demand... rinse and repeat).

[JimboToronto]

the price will be free to rise higher with less sell pressure (until more profit taking at higher prices exceeds demand... rinse and repeat).

I thought profit taking is when you sell your fiat currencies and take your profits in Bitcoin. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Another sell off today FFS. Just when I was thinking we might be ready for the next leg up. Bitcoin enjoys testing us doesn’t it.

What chances do we have of making a new all time high before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th? I think there will be lots of games until that date, some real volatility.  

I think weak hands are getting shaken just before we go up again. We might see more dips, considering how whales love to scare the newbies into selling right before a big move.

More weak hands are still selling?  I am not sure whether I like that theory.

I thought a lot of the dumb money, which would also include weak hands had already sold at or around $100k, so sure we keep hanging out here, and is that causing more of them to sell?  Doesn't sound like a great theory.. not that anything ever makes too much sense in these here parts.. and not even talking about you, personally.

Here is another theory/factor to consider: Some (many?) people already topped their max tax free (or lower capital gains tax brackets) sales for the year 2024 and they resumed with their $100K sales (which may or may not be significant in comparison to their hodlings) in the new tax year. That will pass, though, and the price will be free to rise higher with less sell pressure (until more profit taking at higher prices exceeds demand... rinse and repeat).

Did not sell but I can now sell up to 65k in btc  with no tax issues.

So others may have sold if they are in the same shape as I am tax wise.

[OgNasty]

Looks like the Biden Administration is going to try their best to dump their confiscated Bitcoin on the way out. A judge just gave the DOJ the go ahead that it’s ok to sell. I’ve never seen an administration try and burn down the city on their way out before. Crazy. If they do sell, Trump will have to put a plan to buy in place, which would be pretty bullish. We could have a test approaching though if they do dump. 

[bitserve]

the price will be free to rise higher with less sell pressure (until more profit taking at higher prices exceeds demand... rinse and repeat).

I thought profit taking is when you sell your fiat currencies and take your profits in Bitcoin. 

Sorta but, unfortunately, we are not inmortal so sometimes you want to either diversify some (for peace of mind at the cost of, most probably, lower returns) or use some to buy something (ie. a nice lake)... and then you have to take some profits, pay some taxes (trying to minimize them if otherwise unavoidable) and convert to fiat as an intermediate/temporary step.

[JayJuanGee]

Another sell off today FFS. Just when I was thinking we might be ready for the next leg up. Bitcoin enjoys testing us doesn’t it.

What chances do we have of making a new all time high before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th? I think there will be lots of games until that date, some real volatility.  

I think weak hands are getting shaken just before we go up again. We might see more dips, considering how whales love to scare the newbies into selling right before a big move.

More weak hands are still selling?  I am not sure whether I like that theory.

I thought a lot of the dumb money, which would also include weak hands had already sold at or around $100k, so sure we keep hanging out here, and is that causing more of them to sell?  Doesn't sound like a great theory.. not that anything ever makes too much sense in these here parts.. and not even talking about you, personally.

Here is another theory/factor to consider: Some (many?) people already topped their max tax free (or lower capital gains tax brackets) sales for the year 2024 and they resumed with their $100K sales (which may or may not be significant in comparison to their hodlings) in the new tax year. That will pass, though, and the price will be free to rise higher with less sell pressure (until more profit taking at higher prices exceeds demand... rinse and repeat).

I was never a fan of incentives to sell based on taxes, even though surely I understand people do it, but your particular framing of the matter still does not excite me (beyond a blip) in regards to figuring out current BTC price dynamics... sure whether taxes or not there are always more incentives to sell as the BTC price is going up, and if the BTC price goes up a lot, then there are incentives to lock in profits, and sure some long term holders are selling BTC, unless some of these BIG players are taking risks to NOT have the BTC that they claim to have.. which does seem pretty risky, so yeah there will continue to be folks taking their 2011 or 2013 BTC, or whatever out of cold storage in order to shave off some profits.. of the 40 BTC that might have cost them anywhere between $200 and $40k to buy (or mine the whole 40 BTC) and then they are selling either around now at $100k to get $4 million, or perhaps they will wait until the BTC price gets to $150k so that they receive $6 million for the same coins.. or they could do various moderated versions of selling various portions along the way, such as to sell 2 BTC every time the BTC price goes up another $20k, and maybe they started at $68k, so they have only sold a total of right around 8 of their 40 BTC at $68k, $88k, $108k,... and so they have BTC sell orders to sell 2 BTC every time the BTC price goes up $20k all the way up to $448k, and sure there are smarter ways to do it based on percent rather than to do it based on $20k price increments and to spread out the sales a bit more and still be rolling in the dough and without too many worries about whether the BTC price goes up more or not.  They still might not even really be selling large portions of their stash, but they are still creating some supply for Blackrock, MSTR and various sovereigns to bid over the various sales of BTC at various price points on the way up.

Looks like the Biden Administration is going to try their best to dump their confiscated Bitcoin on the way out. A judge just gave the DOJ the go ahead that it’s ok to sell. I’ve never seen an administration try and burn down the city on their way out before. Crazy. If they do sell, Trump will have to put a plan to buy in place, which would be pretty bullish. We could have a test approaching though if they do dump.  

The anti-bitcoin dumpers did not learn from Germany, apparently.  By why should they?  They surely consider themselves to be the smartest in the room, anyhow.  Like dumping is going to work in any kind of meaningful way?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

The anti-bitcoin dumpers did not learn from Germany, apparently.  By why should they?  They surely consider themselves to be the smartest in the room, anyhow.  Like dumping is going to work in any kind of meaningful way?

It's neither pro nor anti Bitcoin but merely a desire to stick it to Trump from a petulant and vindictive administration. Just like when they got in and day 1 reversed a lot of stuff he'd put in place, even stuff that was objectively worthwhile (and some of which they later put back in place). Though it's not like the current administration is an exemplar of good fiscal policy anyway.

[philipma1957]

Looks like the Biden Administration is going to try their best to dump their confiscated Bitcoin on the way out. A judge just gave the DOJ the go ahead that it’s ok to sell. I’ve never seen an administration try and burn down the city on their way out before. Crazy. If they do sell, Trump will have to put a plan to buy in place, which would be pretty bullish. We could have a test approaching though if they do dump. 

You gotta love Joe Biden more cheap corn coming up.

Way to go joe

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Moreno233]

Looks like the Biden Administration is going to try their best to dump their confiscated Bitcoin on the way out. A judge just gave the DOJ the go ahead that it’s ok to sell. I’ve never seen an administration try and burn down the city on their way out before. Crazy. If they do sell, Trump will have to put a plan to buy in place, which would be pretty bullish. We could have a test approaching though if they do dump. 

Not trying to spread fud but if that happens, Bitcoin will be testing $80k-$83k range which is also supported by my technical analysis, but such deep correction will not tarry as the inauguration is expected to lead to a massive rally. The winners will be those who will not panic at that scenario but will scoop whatever they can at that dip which is likely the last time we might see Bitcoin below $100k.

[philipma1957]

Looks like the Biden Administration is going to try their best to dump their confiscated Bitcoin on the way out. A judge just gave the DOJ the go ahead that it’s ok to sell. I’ve never seen an administration try and burn down the city on their way out before. Crazy. If they do sell, Trump will have to put a plan to buy in place, which would be pretty bullish. We could have a test approaching though if they do dump. 

Not trying to spread fud but if that happens, Bitcoin will be testing $80k-$83k range which is also supported by my technical analysis, but such deep correction will not tarry as the inauguration is expected to lead to a massive rally. The winners will be those who will not panic at that scenario but will scoop whatever they can at that dip which is likely the last time we might see Bitcoin below $100k.

yep setup your descending buy steps.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com