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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26827012 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
d_eddie
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July 31, 2025, 08:53:25 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

A lucid analysys IMHO, without the spicy talk that someone else has addicted me to.
Here are just a few snippets from an informed, valuable news article.

Weak Bitcoin Treasury Companies Will Be Crushed By Bear Market, Insider Warns

Bitcoin is homogeneous collateral, but public equities are not. Liquidity, index inclusion, and the absolute size of a balance sheet produce a “winner-take-most dynamic”

perpetual preferred equity—dividends but “no debt maturity ever”—(is) a structure that removes the most dangerous cliff

The times are good now… there will be a cycle. That’s what will separate the men from the boys
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July 31, 2025, 09:01:06 PM


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ChartBuddy
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July 31, 2025, 10:01:09 PM


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philipma1957
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July 31, 2025, 10:04:59 PM

is buddy looking to serve us week end dip?
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July 31, 2025, 10:19:52 PM
Last edit: August 01, 2025, 12:14:22 AM by Biodom
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Of note:

MSTR announced that they will not use common stock to directly buy BTC as long as mNAV is less than 2.5X (currently 1.53X)...no more share dilution for a while.
Instead, they issued ATM using preferreds: Q2-$683.6 mil
STRK ATM has 20.5bil remaining, STRF ATM has 1.9 bil remaining, STRD has 4.2 bil ATM remaining.

STRC just IPOed-another $2.5 bil (5X oversubscribed, which means potential ATM sales would be sought after).

STRC will pay 10% (as of today) dividend of 0.8/share on Aug 31 to shareholders as of Aug 15  Wink
Beats money market at 4%, so I got some exchanged (at 94).

https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-second-quarter-2025-financial-results_07-31-2025

EDIT: OT-why you can only earn pennies on WS IPO casino: FIG IPOed at $32 (already being richly valued at $11-12 bil), but opened for trading at $93 and trades now at $146...CRCL all over again.
EDIT2: hot on the heels of it's oversubscribed $2.5 bil STRC IPO, Saylor just announced a $4.2 bil STRC ATM.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312525170517/d826419d424b5.htm
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July 31, 2025, 10:52:54 PM
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Going to work at 6am because i thought Bitcoin at 15K in 2022 was too risky  Grin

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July 31, 2025, 11:01:06 PM


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July 31, 2025, 11:48:40 PM

is buddy looking to serve us week end dip?

Could be.

Not easy to know in advance in regards to whether, how much and then how long it would last.  I just had my mid $115k buy orders fill, and so my next ones are in the lower $112ks, and I would prefer that they would not fill, but it is not like I can do anything about it except have some buy orders available just in case the BTC price goes to those levels.

On a kind of side note that may or may not be related, I would not mind some froth being sucked out of one of our favorite shitcoins (Royal?), yet who knows if a dip in dee cornz is necessary and/or helpful for such froth purgening.. and yeah, maybe I should not give any shits about whether one or another shitcoin dumps or not.

Going to work at 6am because i thought Bitcoin at 15K in 2022 was too risky  Grin


Historically, it has tended to be difficult for newbies to get into bitcoin during such great dippening periods, and in late 2022, many of the bullish bitcoin folks had already been buying all the way down, so by the time bitcoin got to $22k-ish a lot of status quo bitcoin bulls were running out of money.

Capturing the exact bottom could be tough, yet I could imagine that some folks who might have had been looking at bitcoin in 2021 might have had started to want to buy the dip, so even they might have had started buying too soon and at too high of prices and run out of money by the time it was getting below $20k.

So maybe what starts to prop up the BTC price at $15,479 (it's November 2022 bottom) is that there is a lot of running out of sellers.. so even though a lot of folks were talking a big game regarding the bitcoin that they were going to buy around $12k and even some were expecting sub $10k, even though the BTC price lingered around $16k for nearly two months, there were fewer and fewer willing to sell.. yet at the same time, folks weren't really buying either.  They might not have not really started buying after half way through 2023 or even getting into late 2023, since the fear never completely went away in regards to whether the $15,479 bottom was actually in... so it can be quite fanciful to be imagining any ability to buy the bottom, even though it might be less fanciful to consider someone who might have had gotten lucky and began DCAing into bitcoin during that time rather than fantasizing about lump summing in (even if some lump sum funds might have had been available, it seems more likely and plausible that they might have had been invested over the year, such as between mid-2022 until mid 2024.. and even then I could image even more normal folks who got involved in bitcoin toward the late 2021 top and then to have had DCA'ed through 2022, 2023 and part of 2024 and who would have had likely come out quite well through the deal as long as they paced themselves and did not run out of money during such accumulation process.

I think that it is more realistic to imagine someone investing into bitcoin over a period of time rather than fantasizing that he might have had bought at or near the bottom, and even a guy who had lump sum bought into bitcoin at or near the bottom in late 2022, he likely would have had been better off to supplement his BTC buy into at least 2023 and 2024, and perhaps even continuing until now, since I am also having troubles imagining guys being able to get to fuck you status merely buying at the bottom in 2022 (such as around $16k) and then having 7.25x profits if we go by todays price of right around $116k, or alternatively if we consider the 200-WMA of right around $51k, that is merely 3x profits, so still having trouble considering getting to fuck you status based on something like that.
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August 01, 2025, 12:01:06 AM


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Ivystar5
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August 01, 2025, 12:05:13 AM


Going to work at 6am because i thought Bitcoin at 15K in 2022 was too risky  Grin


And we will still have more people going to work in the nearest future because $115k is too risky  Cool

The cornz are meant to be bought, but disregard the price of you really want it.
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August 01, 2025, 12:51:09 AM

Going to work at 6am because i thought Bitcoin at 15K in 2022 was too risky  Grin


Historically, it has tended to be difficult for newbies to get into bitcoin during such great dippening periods, and in late 2022, many of the bullish bitcoin folks had already been buying all the way down, so by the time bitcoin got to $22k-ish a lot of status quo bitcoin bulls were running out of money.

Capturing the exact bottom could be tough, yet I could imagine that some folks who might have had been looking at bitcoin in 2021 might have had started to want to buy the dip, so even they might have had started buying too soon and at too high of prices and run out of money by the time it was getting below $20k.

So maybe what starts to prop up the BTC price at $15,479 (it's November 2022 bottom) is that there is a lot of running out of sellers.. so even though a lot of folks were talking a big game regarding the bitcoin that they were going to buy around $12k and even some were expecting sub $10k, even though the BTC price lingered around $16k for nearly two months, there were fewer and fewer willing to sell.. yet at the same time, folks weren't really buying either.  They might not have not really started buying after half way through 2023 or even getting into late 2023, since the fear never completely went away in regards to whether the $15,479 bottom was actually in... so it can be quite fanciful to be imagining any ability to buy the bottom, even though it might be less fanciful to consider someone who might have had gotten lucky and began DCAing into bitcoin during that time rather than fantasizing about lump summing in (even if some lump sum funds might have had been available, it seems more likely and plausible that they might have had been invested over the year, such as between mid-2022 until mid 2024.. and even then I could image even more normal folks who got involved in bitcoin toward the late 2021 top and then to have had DCA'ed through 2022, 2023 and part of 2024 and who would have had likely come out quite well through the deal as long as they paced themselves and did not run out of money during such accumulation process.

I think that it is more realistic to imagine someone investing into bitcoin over a period of time rather than fantasizing that he might have had bought at or near the bottom, and even a guy who had lump sum bought into bitcoin at or near the bottom in late 2022, he likely would have had been better off to supplement his BTC buy into at least 2023 and 2024, and perhaps even continuing until now, since I am also having troubles imagining guys being able to get to fuck you status merely buying at the bottom in 2022 (such as around $16k) and then having 7.25x profits if we go by todays price of right around $116k, or alternatively if we consider the 200-WMA of right around $51k, that is merely 3x profits, so still having trouble considering getting to fuck you status based on something like that.

Yeah fr, people love to talk like buying the bottom was easy, like they would've just ape'd in at 15K. But back then? The fear was insane. FTX just collapsed, everyone was calling for more drop. Nobody really knew if that was the bottom, and TBH some persons doubted BTC will survive...

Most of the people who did well for sure weren't timing anything, possibly just kept buying through the whole thing. That’s what paid off. Catching the bottom is mostly luck. DCA’ing was the real move...


Going to work at 6am because i thought Bitcoin at 15K in 2022 was too risky  Grin


And we will still have more people going to work in the nearest future because $115k is too risky  Cool

The cornz are meant to be bought, but disregard the price of you really want it.

Facts. Same people calling $15k risky are now watching $115k and saying it is too high... It is wild how price always messes with people’s heads.

At the end of the day, Bitcoin is meant to be bought, not stared at. If you actually believe in it, the number on the screen should not be what stops you. You either want it or you don’t.
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August 01, 2025, 12:57:53 AM

Just got some at 114.6k

Will check to see if we go lower.

I got all that booze to open

129.1 = in house
130.1 = in house
140.0 = on the way
151.0 = will pick it up next week
160.0 = on the way


and we may go lower than the 114.6k I got it at today damn
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August 01, 2025, 01:01:07 AM


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August 01, 2025, 01:16:47 AM

Is anybody in contact with Bob? Is he buying another ranch or a water park or something? Football team?
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August 01, 2025, 01:17:30 AM

[edited out]
Yeah fr, people love to talk like buying the bottom was easy, like they would've just ape'd in at 15K. But back then? The fear was insane. FTX just collapsed, everyone was calling for more drop. Nobody really knew if that was the bottom, and TBH some persons doubted BTC will survive...

Most of the people who did well for sure weren't timing anything, possibly just kept buying through the whole thing. That’s what paid off. Catching the bottom is mostly luck. DCA’ing was the real move...

I understand that the situations of a lot of people is different, yet I thnk that a lot of bitcoiners who were buying on the way down, ran out of money before me, and I consider that I ran out at around $19.5k - even though I made some adjustments in order to not completely run out, so then I also transitioned into DCAing, which was something that I had not really done since 2016-ish... yet whatever it was that I was doing was that I was having to add outside funds in order to keep some buy orders available, and so I personally did not have any ability to back the truck up, even though surely there are some bear low ballers who might have been able to buy back in the sub $20ks, yet many of them were maybe waiting for even lower prices.. and surely I am not denying that some folks were able to buy towards the lower end, since it was nearly 2 months that bitcoin was bouncing around mostly in the $16ks.

Even though I largely ran out of money to buy more, I was still quite happy with my overall performance, and I considered that I was getting better and better at making sure that I am prepared for the dip, and I felt that I handled the 2022 dip better than I had handled the 2018 dip.  My own personal error in the 2018 dip was not keeping out enough cash for a project that I was going to be paying for, and surely I had thought that it was quite unlikely that the $6k-ish support was going to break downward since it had gotten tested something like 6 times, and so I was stuck with a bit of a cash shortfall when $6k finally broke downward.. and there was some point that I ended up selling around 3% of my BTC stack around $4,200, and perhaps I was able to buy around 50% of that (1.5%) back before the BTC prices went back up, so anyhow I ended up with a situation that I ended up selling part of my stash in late 2018, and I really was not able to make up for that mistake - even though what I sold was still likely greater than 4x profits (since my cost per BTC at that time were likely around 1,000), but I still would have preferred not to sell BTC during a dip if I could have had avoided such selling through better management of my holdings and better figuring out my cashflow situation due to a project that I was involved in at the time.

Is anybody in contact with Bob? Is he buying another ranch or a water park or something? Football team?

He's been pretty sparse in these here parts... at least the public parts.
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August 01, 2025, 02:21:51 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

I caught myself feeling a little bearish for a second, but then I remembered that today we just had the first monthly close over $110,000 in Bitcoin’s history. We are also about 50 days away from where the peak should be of the 4 year cycle, 35 days away from the S&P500 announcing Strategy’s inclusion, and about 60 days from the $160,000 peak that M2 is signaling.
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August 01, 2025, 02:59:38 AM
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Going to work at 6am because i thought Bitcoin at 15K in 2022 was too risky  Grin



You should absolutely be banned for plagiarism

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August 01, 2025, 03:18:18 AM
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Going to work at 6am because i thought Bitcoin at 15K in 2022 was too risky  Grin



You should absolutely be banned for plagiarism



I wonder where this account got half of its merits from  Roll Eyes

Hey JJG, how about opening a merit giveaway thread so 3rd world farmers don't need to come here anymore?? win win I'd say
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