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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26825317 times)
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ChartBuddy
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d_eddie
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August 15, 2025, 01:23:58 AM

My have times changed.

i recall you whining like a little baby.. was it in 2018, 2019 and 2020 and you were saying something like the BTC price is never going back to ATH. .and it is going to take years and blah blah blah..
now look at you

Can you point me to some of my whining? I remember having dreams of SOMA elephants and (heresy!) double ladders during stretches of unnerving up&down.

rapid 6%-ish dip from $124,517 to $117,201, and you are seemingly unfazed.
I didn't want to brag, but I sold a tiny smidge near the very top and the petty expenses are covered up for a while, including a new car tire. One, mind you, not four - what are we, feeling rich?

Quote
I will admit that my sustainable withdrawal theory could have its problems if BTC were to go into an infinite downward spiral
It's not even that for me. It's more about not depleting the stash for sheer extravagance. Just to be able to say FY, so to say. At which point, poetry strikes!


Status is attained
Just learning to say "Fuck You"
A new life, hard work





#haiku
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August 15, 2025, 03:33:23 AM
Last edit: August 15, 2025, 03:45:07 AM by philipma1957
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just watched a movie on Netflix  It was made in 2016 never saw it.

"Spectral"

https://www.netflix.com/watch/80098200?


decent enough
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August 15, 2025, 03:35:40 AM

There's something I've always wondered about until now, the effect of the "every 4 years" after which we always expect a big Bullish run but it hasn't happened, I came across this analyst who said this:

Quote
He pointed viewers to analysis from on-chain researcher James Check (Checkmate) at CheckOnChain. “If we see a massive run-up and blow-off top at 4-year end, the theory remains intact… but if not, Bitcoin’s behavior through market cycles has probably changed forever.” Check, for his part, has recently written that “if there was ever a time for the 4yr Bitcoin halving cycle to break, this market environment is likely it,” underscoring how veteran on-chain analysts are also bracing for a pattern shift.

newsbtc.com:https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/q4-will-decide-if-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-dead/

and things are looking good and with a good trend:




x:https://x.com/ChartsBtc/status/1955490786700824624

There are very good expectations, there are still many things to look forward to, I would still like to see that 4-year effect.
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August 15, 2025, 03:49:58 AM

well 1100 to do 1000 to 10000
then 1800 to do 10,000 to 100,000

so maybe  2900 to do 100,000 to 1,000,000

that is around 2900/365=7.945 say 8 years time

I would be 76 the wife would be 77 and we would be closing in on 50 years together.
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August 15, 2025, 04:41:43 AM
Last edit: August 15, 2025, 03:40:05 PM by JayJuanGee
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My have times changed.

i recall you whining like a little baby.. was it in 2018, 2019 and 2020 and you were saying something like the BTC price is never going back to ATH. .and it is going to take years and blah blah blah..
now look at you

Can you point me to some of my whining? I remember having dreams of SOMA elephants and (heresy!) double ladders during stretches of unnerving up&down.

I don't want to have to look.  I don't want to take back my statement, either.

So I suppose it is a bit of a dilemma.

You cannot admit that you were pessimistic about the price for a period of time - even if we might not characterize it as whining?

It was more like giving up.. but not selling just proclaiming that you were going to have to wait for a long time and that even waiting might not improve the situation.

Maybe I dreamed it?

rapid 6%-ish dip from $124,517 to $117,201, and you are seemingly unfazed.
I didn't want to brag, but I sold a tiny smidge near the very top and the petty expenses are covered up for a while, including a new car tire. One, mind you, not four - what are we, feeling rich?

 I am surely not opposed to selling on the way up, yet what happens with me, as I need more cash, I will free up the money from some of my buy orders, and the next ones to be freed up are in the $31k price arena.. so yeah, little by little my lower buy orders are dissolved and that money is made usable... so right now, I would prefer to keep buy orders in place going down to 35% below the 200-WMA, which gives me until $33.5k that are eligible to be cleared and the money available for usage.  If necessary, I can make some adjustments... .and even just selling some extra at spot prices is not any major issue for me.. even though I would prefer to sell my from time to time little chunks on the pump rather than on the dump... even if I were to just sell  0.25% of my stash that would enough to resolve quite a few potential (or foreseeable cashflow issues), but I could even up the sales amount to 0.5% or even a higher amount without really feeling any guilt about selling too much too soon (even if I were to sell on a 10% or 20% dip from here).

I will admit that my sustainable withdrawal theory could have its problems if BTC were to go into an infinite downward spiral
It's not even that for me. It's more about not depleting the stash for sheer extravagance. Just to be able to say FY, so to say. At which point, poetry strikes!

I know some folks read more into fuck you status..  I ONLY consider fuck you status as being able to chose my work or to chose not to work...  - even though from time to time, if we have family and/or business and/or even consumption relations, life will sometimes throw burdens at us.  Sometimes it is not a good feeling if someone is purposefully engaging in shady dealings just to see if we will fight or if we will pay.. and if we choose to fight (or at least contest the matter), there may be some work requirements to get the job done, and maybe we don't have someone we can count on to "take care" of all things.. which surely delegating can feel good, but we still have to have someone who is competent to accomplish the thing that we need "taken care" of.
 
Status is attained
Just learning to say "Fuck You"
A new life, hard work
#haiku

I am not sure if we are interpreting "fuck you" status the same, and surely there have been some situations in my life in which I am writing a letter or submitting materials for disputes that are a few hundred dollars, yet the person on the other end does not always deserve the money.

I recall a dispute that I had in 2018, I thought that the dispute was so ridiculous and it was not even for a lot of money, but that dispute did not really end in my favor, and it can be totally frustrating when injustices take place, but sometimes there is ONLY so much that we can do about them, and they can cause stress and time consuming.. and they might not end favorably even though we may well have had ended up putting time, energy and value into attempting to pursue what we perceive to be justice... and just throwing money at it will not necessarily resolve the matter in a way that we perceive as favorable..

just watched a movie on Netflix  It was made in 2016 never saw it.
"Spectral"
https://www.netflix.com/watch/80098200?
decent enough

I only recently finished watching the breaking bad series.  It might be old news for some guys here... but I liked it.

well 1100 to do 1000 to 10000
then 1800 to do 10,000 to 100,000

so maybe  2900 to do 100,000 to 1,000,000

that is around 2900/365=7.945 say 8 years time

I would be 76 the wife would be 77 and we would be closing in on 50 years together.

That is bettable. I bet that we make it to $1 million in less than 8 years... I'll even throw a free year in there.. and say less than 7 years.  that would be 2032.
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August 15, 2025, 07:59:18 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I only recently finished watching the breaking bad series.  It might be old news for some guys here... but I liked it.



You might like the sequel movie "El Camino", too.
And if you have the stamina for digging through another series, i'd recommend "Better call Saul" to you.
These two are revolving around the Breaking Bad micro-universe.

EDIT:
Not completely unrelated: I saw "Nobody 2" announced on Twatter yesterday. The first one was quite good.
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August 15, 2025, 10:20:09 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If you are a strong believer of retrocausality, Bitcoin has always been at least $10 Million...
But you would also get laughed at for believing in retrocausality (which is ok because it means you have always been laughed at for believing in retrocausality).

#Schrödinger’s Bitcoin
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August 15, 2025, 10:40:49 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I'm a little bit torn about the derivatives markets.

i developed a habit of not even winking an eye
the last fridays of the months,
when futures usually settle.
Usually options tend to do that more. Whatever the leverage, the price of futures contracts is attracted to the real underlying number. Pull and distance from real price near expiry are both vanishing. Cascaded liquidations are a different matter. Big events on futures can and will move the underlying price, but they do not depend so much on the expiry date approaching. So-called perpetual futures nullify the expiry date altogether, and the premium is paid in the form of a periodic funding fee. In expiring futures, the premium is paid when buying and pocketed when selling. In normal market conditions, the premium goes down with time. It always becomes zero at expiry.

On the other hand, options can have wildly different values on the day of expiry depending on the real number, so option writers (sellers, big market makers) can try to pull the underlying (corn) price up or down to minimize their own expenses on expiry.
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August 15, 2025, 11:01:15 AM


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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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August 15, 2025, 11:19:19 AM
Merited by hisslyness (2), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

I don't want to have to look.  I don't want to take back my statement, either.




"fuck you status" in action lol
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