Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitHodlers]

There were some brief spikes that got into the 40% arena, yet those would have had been quite tough to catch, and yeah, there could have been some aberrations that touched upon 50%.

Yeah of course it was hard, but if we say it was possible to get like 30% then we may as well say the full story. Some people did get that 50% even if they were probably lucky, but I am happy for them.

It could be that we can lecture guys about exercising poor judgement.. yet we don't always know the circumstances of the other guys.. It probably does help to also speak about some personal experiences if we are comparing / contrasting what other guys had done if we might believe that we would have had dealt with the circumstances better.

Well in my case I sold a bit too early, but I had no doubts about any of this. I could not say for sure how much in percentage it was this was a long time ago. I do remember selling other forks too like that Bitcoin Diamond and some others. Wasn't there also another airdrop around this type Byteball or something like this? I remember also getting some from that.

Obviously, I don't consider holding onto BCH to have had been a "safe move" unless perhaps the person was a bit delusional about what was going on, and surely we had quite a bit of arguments going on in various parts of the forum that seemed to contain some delusional components.. including some of the goals that were seeking to be achieved.

Many were delusional and tricked by smart looking arguments unfortunately. If you repeat a lie too many times it starts looking like the truth to some people..

By the way, BitHodlers your characterization of Bcash as if it were led by Roger Ver only is a bit of a delusional framing of history.  Sure, Ver was one of the main bcash proponents, yet there were plenty of other causes of Bcash's level of success (pumpening) rather than just Ver and his influencing, marketing and/or manipulation attempts.

Perhaps it is a bit mistaken yes, but without Roger Ver there would have been no fork war and there would have not been that much damage done to Bitcoin. He's not the only one but he was the main actor I would say?

You might be speaking in some levels of truths based on free market ideas Gachapin, yet it seems to me that forks still might be attacks - depending on how they are done, and yeah outcomes might not end up being just, even if there ends up being a prevalent outcome that we can subsequently characterize as the free market "winner."

Forks can be options but from our history here they were exclusively only attacks. That it is about democratic choice is purely a theoretical case in practice this was never true yet. It is important to remember this when a government launches a fork attack on Bitcoin.

[Gachapin]

[edited out]

I sold my BCH way too late.
2017, I didn't want to make a decision on which fork market would choose.

And after it was clear that BTC was the one, I still kept BCH because it was the only coin with the same mining algo. So if something where to happen to the BTC chain, I thought many miners would switch to BCH. So it was always a kind of a hedge for me.

But yeah I'd have over 30% more BTC now, if I had sold earlier. It was an expensive hedge, if it ever was one at all  

I don't know where you can go from "I kept my BCH as a hedge" to "I would have had made 30% more BTC if I had sold it"..

In hindsight, I should have sold yes.  But at that time it was the safest decision, to keep both coins.

But surely, back in 2017 you already knew 100% how everything would play out...

You are like in a fantasylandia, since there were rare folks who were even able to get more than 20% more BTC from whatever BCH they might have had been able to muster up from splitting their private wallets.. and it seems to me that Bitfinex was one of the only, if not the only, exchange that said that they would recognize the split right from the start (and it seems that they made the split coins available within a few hours of the hardfork).

Kraken did as well if I'm not mistaken

[Biodom]

OT: Turbotax rant

I got it earlier this year (Home and Business version), had to pay almost $20 more due to lower discount-wanted to see how my business account looks like with various deductions before EOY...no go!

It turns out that they sell a temporary crippled version that will have a business portion activated only in February...what??  
They claim that there was a change in the law, probably referring to OBBB, but that law went into effect on July 4, 2025.
What were they doing the last 5 mo?
This is another example of semi-monopoly to our detriment. Urrgh!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

OT: Turbotax rant

I got it earlier this year (Home and Business version), had to pay almost $20 more due to lower discount-wanted to see how my business account looks like with various deductions before EOY...no go!

It turns out that they sell a temporary crippled version that will have a business portion activated only in February...what??  
They claim that there was a change in the law, probably referring to OBBB, but that law went into effect on July 4, 2025.
What were they doing the last 5 mo?
This is another example of semi-monopoly to our detriment. Urrgh!

Never use turbotax or give them money.

They are the ones lobbying for the IRS to not provide the software for free to everyone.

[Searing]

A see something controversial in the charts:

Since Dec 2022 low (3 years):

BCH outperformed Bitcoin during both the last three and one year time frames:

BCH at 97.7 at Dec 2022 low, now 624.12 (up 538.8%)
BCH at 480.65 one year ago, now 624.12 (up 29.84%)

BTC at 15782 at Nov 2022 low, now 87892 (up 456.9%)
BTC at 100070 one year ago, now 87892 (down 12.17%)

My read: there are some parties or a hedge fund (or a multiple of those) that are actively accumulating BCH in the last three years, accelerating in the last year and at the same time the same funds might have been shorting btc (the latter suggestion is a stretch, but could be a logical path).

I can easily see how bch can make itself more "sexy" in the short term...beware.
What would happen to the sentiment in btc if outperformance of bch would increase?
Of course, those bitcoins that were not split since 2017 would get both chains appreciation or the lack of it.

So a shitcoin outperforms Bitcoin in a bull market.... how special    

And all the other shitcoins that are doing the same... I guess they must be bought by hedge founds too right?

BCH... Pfff... I remember some (one?) of us here in WO promoting BCH back in 2017-2018. Had they converted their BCH to BTC at that time, they would now be much, MUCH richer. But, ego is a double-edged sword.

Goes to show that short-term performance doesn't mean anything.

Zoom out to see the bigger picture.


Edit: Zoom-Out performance for the exact same period of 8 years:

BCH at $1125 at Dec 2017 low, now $592 (DOWN 47%, after 8 years)
BTC at $9370 at Dec 2017 low, now $90205 (UP 863%, after 8 years)

Bitstamp prices.

I sold my BCH way too late.

2017, I didn't want to make a decision on which fork market would choose.

And after it was clear that BTC was the one, I still kept BCH because it was the only coin with the same mining algo. So if something where to happen to the BTC chain, I thought many miners would switch to BCH. So it was always a kind of a hedge for me.

But yeah I'd have over 30% more BTC now, if I had sold earlier. It was an expensive hedge, if it ever was one at all  

I sold my BCH when I merged into one mega wallet in 2017 or so...converted it to btc at probably $10k? or whatever... I have HALF MY BCH on the merged wallet

just don't mess with it in cold storage...so it will do what it does..but on the above half bch to btc above....yeah that worked out. And yes, I have screenshots of all

this tucked into my taxes for that year....as my usual precaution of moving stuff about Remember my banker 'sic'd' the SEC on me in 2013 because all btc was 'evil' drug

money on an overseas purchase of a KNC Neptune Miner pre-ordered in 2013....I flipped it from a btc miner to scrypt miner in march those with KNC issues back then

will no why. The Bank President 'gleefully' said he had reported me as illegal likely drug dealer in that btc in 2013 was evil....and

tried to toss me under the bus ..till I called the banker an asshole and slapped down the folder from my CPA and the SEC guy was on the phone why am I here?...

then in 2014 2 weeks before IRS deadline  I had to 're-do' and refine my tax form again with CPA

the IRS had said the 'current mined coins' as income...not 'I did not touch any btc' as my CPA previously said...so went back to CPA who started to laugh and

said according to these new rules I was a 'farmer' and allowed deductions on miner equip portion of the house etc. So on my mining when matched with NOT

selling for capital gains and HODL'ing from 2013 till I stopped mining ...I am legal as 'f*ck' and it all balanced out. I 'occasionally' (last one was 2019)  get

mail for IRS..the last one was a couple months ago saying I owe like $23 or some such..meager.....until this year I  got the 2019 letter like the one above I got back from IRS

they owed me like

$12 in a check.....CPA says yep cash them ...to dot my I's and cross my T's. I asked here is it a computer doing this...she says NO a person eventually looks at this at

least briefly ... but probably due to my crypto checkmark i own btc/crypto on all yearly tax forms......so it is odd but nothing of any note as an aside

anyway, you all want to be legal as F*ck on where your btc came from fund wise/mining/etc...as the IRS it seems is 'trolling' backwards and has been as

far as I can tell personally for years now. I've gotten steady little nudges like this since 2013 on such things.

[vapourminer]

anyway, you all want to be legal as F*ck on where your btc came from fund wise/mining/etc...as the IRS it seems is 'trolling' backwards and has been as

far as I can tell personally for years now. I've gotten steady little nudges like this since 2013 on such things.

as i mined the bulk of my corn i have signed my pool payout addys with messages like "im [redacted] and i mined at [redacted] with [redacted] gear around [redacted] dates." also have pics of my gear and screenshots of the pool miner stat pages and payout pages. all organized in print and electronic forms. just in case.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

OT: Turbotax rant

I got it earlier this year (Home and Business version), had to pay almost $20 more due to lower discount-wanted to see how my business account looks like with various deductions before EOY...no go!

It turns out that they sell a temporary crippled version that will have a business portion activated only in February...what??  
They claim that there was a change in the law, probably referring to OBBB, but that law went into effect on July 4, 2025.
What were they doing the last 5 mo?
This is another example of semi-monopoly to our detriment. Urrgh!

Never use turbotax or give them money.

They are the ones lobbying for the IRS to not provide the software for free to everyone.

I started with a CPA... threw a 1000tx at him in 1999 (when I was position-trading internet stocks, lol), cost me $500 even back then (probably at least a thou now)...the guy congratulated me on the profits, lol.

Pushed a third of the profits into buying a house (downpayment). The rest of the account got zeroed out in the 2001-2002 Internet collapse since I was basically a noob in trading and thought that 1997-2000 period was typical, but it was anything but. Oh well, lesson learned (no margin, strictly limited % positions, etc.).
Since then, I don't use CPAs since the return is relatively straightforward.

[BTCETFInvestor]

anyway, you all want to be legal as F*ck on where your btc came from fund wise/mining/etc...as the IRS it seems is 'trolling' backwards and has been as

far as I can tell personally for years now. I've gotten steady little nudges like this since 2013 on such things.

as i mined the bulk of my corn i have signed my pool payout addys with messages like "im [redacted] and i mined at [redacted] with [redacted] gear around [redacted] dates." also have pics of my gear and screenshots of the pool miner stat pages and payout pages. all organized in print and electronic forms. just in case.

Are you saying that Bitcoin acquisition information may be needed for taxation purposes - in the U.S. by the IRS, or in another country?    

[BTCETFInvestor]

OT: Turbotax rant

I got it earlier this year (Home and Business version), had to pay almost $20 more due to lower discount-wanted to see how my business account looks like with various deductions before EOY...no go!

It turns out that they sell a temporary crippled version that will have a business portion activated only in February...what??  
They claim that there was a change in the law, probably referring to OBBB, but that law went into effect on July 4, 2025.
What were they doing the last 5 mo?
This is another example of semi-monopoly to our detriment. Urrgh!

I don't think any tax preparation service (e.g. TurboTax) has new software available with the new tax law coming from the OBBB. It's my understanding the IRS will automatically calculate and adjust tax returns for 2025 tax filings based on the OBBB that became law in July, 2025. The IRS is expected to be making lots of refunds. Much of the refunds will be from tax withholdings of paychecks that were not adjusted accordingly for most of the year as well as tips and overtime pay that should not be taxed for most of the year.

The software programmers for tax preparation services must write and test code for some major parts of the convoluted IRS 1040 worksheet instructions that must be followed anytime tax laws change. Those updates are often delayed many weeks.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Searing]

OT: Turbotax rant

I got it earlier this year (Home and Business version), had to pay almost $20 more due to lower discount-wanted to see how my business account looks like with various deductions before EOY...no go!

It turns out that they sell a temporary crippled version that will have a business portion activated only in February...what??  
They claim that there was a change in the law, probably referring to OBBB, but that law went into effect on July 4, 2025.
What were they doing the last 5 mo?
This is another example of semi-monopoly to our detriment. Urrgh!

Never use turbotax or give them money.

They are the ones lobbying for the IRS to not provide the software for free to everyone.

I started with a CPA... threw a 1000tx at him in 1999 (when I was position-trading internet stocks, lol), cost me $500 even back then (probably at least a thou now)...the guy congratulated me on the profits, lol.

Pushed a third of the profits into buying a house (downpayment). The rest of the account got zeroed out in the 2001-2002 Internet collapse since I was basically a noob in trading and thought that 1997-2000 period was typical, but it was anything but. Oh well, lesson learned (no margin, strictly limited % positions, etc.).
Since then, I don't use CPAs since the return is relatively straightforward.

Mine since day one has saved me mucho $$$$. When things were 'murky' she always chose the more cautious and conservative approach better to pay a bit more in

taxes if this all took off. Boy did she get that right...so no....the only problem I have is me and a univ friend have had here since she started...we are like 'legacy'

stuff for fun she does and at 1/2 her corporate price. As things have gotten weirder and weirder over the decades biz ethics wise...I would offer 'many' folks that
 
but because BTC was murky all those years..she never took anyone else.

Had a plumber in 2014 come in and saw the BTC Miner. I told him it was a BTC Miner and he said that is for laundering drug money right? Said he needed to get

something from the truck for a quote and I've never seen him since.

Also in 2014 or so all my friends had an 'intervention' on my Bitcoin stuff...I shit thee not that sucked....my mom called me on the phone and cried for one hour

sheesh was btc hated back when.

2013-2014 when BTC was 'evil'.

[BTCETFInvestor]

OT: Turbotax rant

I got it earlier this year (Home and Business version), had to pay almost $20 more due to lower discount-wanted to see how my business account looks like with various deductions before EOY...no go!

It turns out that they sell a temporary crippled version that will have a business portion activated only in February...what??  
They claim that there was a change in the law, probably referring to OBBB, but that law went into effect on July 4, 2025.
What were they doing the last 5 mo?
This is another example of semi-monopoly to our detriment. Urrgh!

Never use turbotax or give them money.

They are the ones lobbying for the IRS to not provide the software for free to everyone.

I started with a CPA... threw a 1000tx at him in 1999 (when I was position-trading internet stocks, lol), cost me $500 even back then (probably at least a thou now)...the guy congratulated me on the profits, lol.

Pushed a third of the profits into buying a house (downpayment). The rest of the account got zeroed out in the 2001-2002 Internet collapse since I was basically a noob in trading and thought that 1997-2000 period was typical, but it was anything but. Oh well, lesson learned (no margin, strictly limited % positions, etc.).
Since then, I don't use CPAs since the return is relatively straightforward.

Mine since day one has saved me mucho $$$$. When things were 'murky' she always chose the more cautious and conservative approach better to pay a bit more in

taxes if this all took off. Boy did she get that right...so no....the only problem I have is me and a univ friend have had here since she started...we are like 'legacy'

stuff for fun she does and at 1/2 her corporate price. As things have gotten weirder and weirder over the decades biz ethics wise...I would offer 'many' folks that
 
but because BTC was murky all those years..she never took anyone else.

Had a plumber in 2014 come in and saw the BTC Miner. I told him it was a BTC Miner and he said that is for laundering drug money right? Said he needed to get

something from the truck for a quote and I've never seen him since.

Also in 2014 or so all my friends had an 'intervention' on my Bitcoin stuff...I shit thee not that sucked....my mom called me on the phone and cried for one hour

sheesh was btc hated back when.

2013-2014 when BTC was 'evil'.

@Searing - How would you like having to file U.S. Federal taxes along with state taxes in six different U.S. states and five foreign countries as a P.C. whose firm does business in those different states and countries? People in that category can't use a typical CPA, regardless of experience. I've been acquainted with this matter and how it is handled.

The tax filings are so complex it requires a specialized accounting division of a large accounting firm to do over 500 people's tax filings, charging each well into 5-digits (the last was ~$15k) to file the federal, state and local taxes in various states, and to file taxes for various foreign countries/cities. These people have annual incomes of $8mm to $25mm (and it continues to increase every year by double-digit percentages) so the tax prep charge is really meaningless. It's not uncommon for some of the P.C.s to have well over $1 million per month income...      

It would be almost impossible for even a seasoned multi-staff accountant with an extraordinary high level of expertise in a major accounting firm to handle such tax returns without express knowledge of all the various taxing requirements in those foreign countries and cities, and the peculiarities that applies specifically to the individual tax filers.

My taxes in recent years have become quite simplified even though still somewhat complex - I can prepare and file my taxes using TurboTax and no longer need an accounting firm or a CPA to do it. I think TurboTax is unbelievably easy and efficient, even with numerous income matters like reporting rental income, earned interest, dividends, stock trade gains, capital loss carryovers, cash-in lieu of fractional shares, mineral rights/royalties, tax implications of MLPs, etc., etc.

I really like how TurboTax auto-fills/auto-populates your personal information and tax filing data from the previous year's filing in the pertinent 1040 sections. I also like how you can import tax information from a wide range of financial institutions and brokerages into your TurboTax return, making it practically foolproof of making common income errors - though it's always wise to double-check everything before filing. I also like how TurboTax saves customers' previous year filings for 7-8 years in their system in case the customer ever needs to check old tax returns or amend a previous tax return.

TurboTax seems to definitely have their act together. Their online software package makes it very easy to e-file your taxes with confidence at a cost that is very reasonable...

[Ivystar5]

i never checked, but is there supposed to be a minimum age on this forum?

I recall that the minimum age is 9 years old.

is that in AI years?

Unlike the JJG!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Well the dust has not quite settled with the silver sales on ebay, but I have done over and above what I thought I would on ebay. So I got more corn tonight.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com