Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[LFC_Bitcoin]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

Would love you to be right, I’d kiss NotLambChop’s asshole to make that happen but I fear we are set for 2 years of misery and 50k BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

[edited out]

JJG - I may send Phil an email just to say howdy - but just to make you OpSec happy, I'd do it from one of my alias accounts!  

Of course guys can exercise their own judgment on these matters.  Maybe Phil could adopt you? I am sure Grandma would appreciate that level of kindness.

Yeah 90 and then back down.

Don't get ahead of yourself.  We have $90k for more than an hour now.. above, below, above, below... All within a few hundred dollars.

Okay you are the boss.

I am the boss in regards to which part?

You probably haven't listened to anyone in the last 30 years.  So why start now?  

hey I am off to do my first set of 20 pushups and will then do my second set a bit later as per you suggestion earlier this month.

Also looks like silver crashed quite a bit last night.

[BTCETFInvestor]

[edited out]

JJG - I may send Phil an email just to say howdy - but just to make you OpSec happy, I'd do it from one of my alias accounts!  

Of course guys can exercise their own judgment on these matters.  Maybe Phil could adopt you? I am sure Grandma would appreciate that level of kindness.

Yeah 90 and then back down.

Don't get ahead of yourself.  We have $90k for more than an hour now.. above, below, above, below... All within a few hundred dollars.

Okay you are the boss.

I am the boss in regards to which part?

You probably haven't listened to anyone in the last 30 years.  So why start now?  

hey I am off to do my first set of 20 pushups and will then do my second set a bit later as per you suggestion earlier this month.

Also looks like silver crashed quite a bit last night.

Yeah, Phil - but you've been in 'high cotton' recently with your silver and copper!

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

JJG - I may send Phil an email just to say howdy - but just to make you OpSec happy, I'd do it from one of my alias accounts!  

Of course guys can exercise their own judgment on these matters.  Maybe Phil could adopt you? I am sure Grandma would appreciate that level of kindness.

Yeah 90 and then back down.

Don't get ahead of yourself.  We have $90k for more than an hour now.. above, below, above, below... All within a few hundred dollars.

Okay you are the boss.

I am the boss in regards to which part?

You probably haven't listened to anyone in the last 30 years.  So why start now?  

hey I am off to do my first set of 20 pushups and will then do my second set a bit later as per you suggestion earlier this month.

Also looks like silver crashed quite a bit last night.

Yeah, Phil - but you've been in 'high cotton' recently with your silver and copper!

well I did not get it all sold off.

but at 70+ an oz  vs 83+ an oz it is still a good price to sell the rest.

I will take a break from selling

the quarters
the halfs 
the dollars
the few bars left

Maybe they rally back or maybe this was it.

I sold a lot at 2 to 3 x what I paid. I think I sold 300oz in bars all went to corn they were early sales less profit. I then sold 500 dimes 320 quarters 120 halfs and 20 oz all at 60-79 an oz.

I added a lot of corn this fall and winter. Still do not have enough corn.

but the corn grows on.

Maybe we pick up price on corn in Jan.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Oh buddy 87 again

How about 97.

[BitHodlers]

Oh buddy 87 again

How about 97.

The chart behavior today is again strange, they killed 90k as soon as it was widely reported on.

[goldkingcoiner]

The 12-month candle looks bullish AF.
Can't wait for a green 2026. 

[asUHWEceyc]

scam top, scam bear done?
gyna pumps precious metals
demoralize all

Even though I frequently proclaim that I don't know where we are going, the 200-WMA can tell us where we are at.. and so we can see how far the BTC price is relative to the 200-WMA, which currently with the BTC price at $87,6000 and the 200-WMA at $56,700, we are about 55% above the 200-WMA.
Why use any other indicator, except maybe because other folks are using other indicators?

The 100-WMA can be helpful to see when the BTC price might get stuck between the 100-WMA and the 200-WMA.. then maybe that could be a sign that we are in a bear market or to confirm that we had entered a bear market. The 100-WMA is right around $83,600.  By the way the 100-WMA can also be referred to as the 2 year moving average.

A problem with these indicators is that they can be gamed.. so then maybe if we stay below a price (such as the 100-WMA) for long enough, then maybe we will start to conclude that we have transitioned into a bear market.

I suppose that ultimately I like the 200-WMA since so far it is always moving up and it tends to take out a lo tof the shorter-term noise.. so it tells us where we are at, but not necessarily where we are going.. ..same with any of the indicators, even though surely we might try to extract some data from the various indicators to throw in a predictive element into the mix.

Of course, if you translate the 200 DMA into the weekly moving average then that is merely the 7 week moving average, which seems a bit short, which I suppose is the point, since we can compare the shorter with the longer and come up with some ideas about whetehr the trend has changed or if the trend is moving in a certain direction.

The 200 day is a decent short term goal post- but it's acted like a long term trend indicator with the volatility and limited history in this market, hence folks like Trace Mayer incorporating it so heavily. 4- and 2- year averages woulda been glacially long-term for coin in say, 2020 or earlier.

Spot bouncing ~5-10% above the 100 week provides essentially the same information: price is low, but not ugly by historical standards with recency bias removed- objectively not as bad as sentiment might indicate, and well above historical "bear markets". Equally as lukewarm as the lackluster October top.

If coin fails to retrace substantially from here and/or makes new ATHs next year, 4-year cycles may only be relevant insofar as the number of blocks between mining reward halvings.

Bitcoin is great at smashing price whisperer gurus' credibility- masterluc, planb, and now bob loukas.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

[edited out]

JJG - I may send Phil an email just to say howdy - but just to make you OpSec happy, I'd do it from one of my alias accounts!  

Of course guys can exercise their own judgment on these matters.  Maybe Phil could adopt you? I am sure Grandma would appreciate that level of kindness.

Yeah 90 and then back down.

Don't get ahead of yourself.  We have $90k for more than an hour now.. above, below, above, below... All within a few hundred dollars.

Okay you are the boss.

I am the boss in regards to which part?

You probably haven't listened to anyone in the last 30 years.  So why start now?  

hey I am off to do my first set of 20 pushups and will then do my second set a bit later as per you suggestion earlier this month.

Also looks like silver crashed quite a bit last night.

Yeah, Phil - but you've been in 'high cotton' recently with your silver and copper!

well I did not get it all sold off.

but at 70+ an oz  vs 83+ an oz it is still a good price to sell the rest.

I will take a break from selling

the quarters
the halfs  
the dollars
the few bars left

Maybe they rally back or maybe this was it.

I sold a lot at 2 to 3 x what I paid. I think I sold 300oz in bars all went to corn they were early sales less profit. I then sold 500 dimes 320 quarters 120 halfs and 20 oz all at 60-79 an oz.

I added a lot of corn this fall and winter. Still do not have enough corn.

but the corn grows on.

Maybe we pick up price on corn in Jan.

Phil - Remember 'high cotton' - because I'm sure you'll see it coming your way!  

[WatChe]

We need a long climb back and a retreat from metals.

I AM still selling the silver and buying btc as of today

Silver has outperformed gold in terms of return in last year. I think gold and silver will take correction though people saying they both will go further high.

[psycodad]

Typical market cleansing before the 2026 pump to ~$200,000.

[BitHodlers]

The 12-month candle looks bullish AF.
Can't wait for a green 2026. 

Does this really look good or are you being sarcastic? I don't have much experience interpreting candles like that.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

The 200 day is a decent short term goal post- but it's acted like a long term trend indicator with the volatility and limited history in this market, hence folks like Trace Mayer incorporating it so heavily. 4- and 2- year averages woulda been glacially long-term for coin in say, 2020 or earlier.
Spot bouncing ~5-10% above the 100 week provides essentially the same information: price is low, but not ugly by historical standards with recency bias removed- objectively not as bad as sentiment might indicate, and well above historical "bear markets". Equally as lukewarm as the lackluster October top.

If coin fails to retrace substantially from here and/or makes new ATHs next year, 4-year cycles may only be relevant insofar as the number of blocks between mining reward halvings.
Bitcoin is great at smashing price whisperer gurus' credibility- masterluc, planb, and now bob loukas.

I am not going to put it past the bears to want to try to demoralize holders and to insistently try to push prices down and wear and wear at support to try to get the BTC price to break down.  Some guys see the ongoing and incessant push down, and they presume the beartwats are going to be successful.  I think that they are giving too much benefit of the doubt to the beartwats - even though surely there is going to be ongoing and incessant dumps to try prevent the price from going up and perhaps to get the price to go down further.  I doubt that they have infinite paper coins to keep dumping, even though surely there is likely abilities for the sophisticated bear twats to hedge their bets in both directions.

The 12-month candle looks bullish AF.
Can't wait for a green 2026. 

Does this really look good or are you being sarcastic? I don't have much experience interpreting candles like that.

Since it is looking like a Doji candle, then the question is whether Doji candles are bearish or bullish, and surely whether doji candles are interpreted as bearish or bullish might also depend on how the trend is interpreted. 

In this case, we usually would not have a Doji candle at this particular place in our cycle, yet the bitcoin market has a lot of new entrants who are likely influencing bitcoin's historical price dynamics and our conception of cycles is likely either in a state of flux or perhaps being challenged.

I doubt that the 12-month candle is bullish AF as goldkingcoiner is proclaiming it to be, since he is bringing his likely already perceptions about the trend and then interpreting the Doji candle as bullish.  Perhaps an attempt to at the power of suggestion (otherwise known as wishful thinking)?

[SPIDERMAN008]

The 12-month candle looks bullish AF.
Can't wait for a green 2026. 

im also waiting for 31 night dinner with  Candle.


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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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