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I'll gladly take that. I think a squeeze above $100k would return us to bullish sentiment. Many people are really afraid because of the cycle theory stuff, that is why they got so sentimental in the last few months at any sign of negative performance. The bears here won't like your forecast though.
It is quite likely that there are a lot of guys who overly bet on one version of events over another version of events without realizing that overall no matter which version of events ends up playing out, they are not sufficiently and/or adequately prepared for up.... so if they fail/refuse to prepare for UP, they end up screwing themselves and potentially slowing their progress in getting to some variation of fuck you status.. including that if they keep up such ongoing dumbass behaviors, they may well never end up getting to fuck you status.. and yeah, too bad that bitcoin had come as a savior (or a life boat) yet so many folks have failed and continue to fail/refuse to recognize bitcoin as the savior/life boat that might not otherwise be available for them and their life circumstances.
I don't like playing it that way. Any kind of plays that are not hedged rely a lot on luck or history repeating itself. If you do hit it right you will make more money that you would on a hedged position, but it is extremely more risky to compared a hedge position.
I am surely not proclaiming that there is a need to ONLY play one direction, and it is likely that I am faulting an overwhelming majority of normies for overly playing their approach to financial preparations without including bitcoin.
Even guys who are involved in bitcoin are likely not preparing enough with their bitcoin, since they are either selling and expecting to buy back lower, or they are failing/refusing to buy or they are getting sucked into shitcoins with expectations that they might be able to earn more bitcoin by getting involved in shitcoins.
An overwhelming number of folks are inadequately/insufficiently prepared for up meaning that they have no bitcoin or they don't have enough and/or they are not focusing on ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying of bitcoin.
Actually we have even seen historically that even whimpy bitcoin stacking approaches had ended up paying off quite extensively, even though it is quite likely that the upwards slope of bitcoin exponential price curve is ongoingly diminishing in its degree of upwards steepness, which likely justifies employing more of an aggressive bitcoin accumulation approach, as compared with the past.
Personally, since a bit after March 2020, I have increased my own calling for higher levels of bitcoin accumulation for normies. Prior to March 2020, I used to recommend 1% to 10% of income into bitcoin for newbies who are still figuring out matters. After March 2020, I started to recommend 5% to 25% of income into bitcoin for newbies. Of course, ever newbie is responsible for coming to his own determination whether to start within my recommended range or to go outside such recommended range based on their own assessment and their own responsibility to arrive at their own assessment.
This is why I also don't really like reading too seriously any unsubstantiated claims or superficial analysis about where the price will take us. From what I can perceive from X is that most people are writing about it depending on the trade that they made. Some will sell all, risky, and then write about the coming bear market or Bitcoin dying from quantum supercomputers or whatever. I think this is dishonest.
Sure. It is fair that each of us try to come up with our own assessment in regards to how to manage our bitcoin holdings, and sure there are way too many traders rather than investors, and it seems that trading is a losing approach to bitcoin in the long term, even if in the short term there might be some traders who can beat the bitcoin market for short-to-medium periods of time, yet it surely does not seem to be worth it to try to trade bitcoin, and many guys take 1-2 cycles just to build up some kind of a meaningful bitcoin stash, unless they happen to have money that they are able to reallocate into bitcoin from any other investments and/or savings that they might have access to.
Even people have value that they can reallocate into bitcoin, they still might hesitate to put all of it into bitcoin in a short period of time, so they might take 3 to 6 to 12 months or even longer to really establish their bitcoin position (even when they have the wealth to draw from).
The truth should be looked for and told regardless of what our positions are.
How many of those folks are real versus bots? We have a similar bot problem on this forum.
And, even if they are not bots, a lot of folks get sucked into a trading approach, and so that information ends up being garbage for folks who might be trying to invest into bitcoin, yet even folks who have intentions to invest into bitcoin, they might get sucked into trading rather than investing.. and too bad for them, if they cannot figure out the difference.. .. and if they cannot figure out that bitcoin is likely a much better investment than a trade.. and even that trading might work to their disadvantage when they otherwise have a great place that they can put value (namely into bitcoin).
What do you think about that? I mean it is entirely possible that I make a wrong bet and these is nothing wrong with admitting that.
Hedging is more about position size rather than getting it wrong. When we hedge we are going to be diluted and invested in various assets. Sure they might go up together and they might go up opposite, yet hopefully our overall portfolio is at least growing at the same pace or greater than the debasement of the dollar.. So so many folks who are just in cash (and they are not able to invest) then they are ongoingly losing value as compared with folks who have assets, and surely the assets that we choose should be the stronger of the assets (such as bitcoin) rather than various inferior assets (even though we might well keep some assets in our holdings that we know are likely to be inferior to bitcoin). We even likely keep some cash in our holdings, such as 3-6 months of our expenses or even more, and surely as my own wealth has grown, the amount of cash that I have has also grown, and surely much of the cash that I have is not working.. yet I consider that I make up for that cash not working by the amount that I have in bitcoin, since my cash is probably less than 3% of the value of my bitcoin.
Sometimes I think that I have too much cash that is not working, yet I know that my cash is working, even when it appears to not be... and surely when I was in my earlier years of investing, I wanted as much as my cash to be working as possible, yet there is some value in keeping value in cash. .just like there is value in keeping some investments in inferior assets - even if we might also need to keep our eye on the prize (namely bitcoin) to make sure that we are managing that one correctly.
By the way, when bitcoin drops 50% to 80% or more in value, there can be quite a bit of second guessing that even goes greater than our current 36% correction that we had from $126,272 down to $80,537 . These are not easy to tdeal with, even though retrospectively guys might speculate that it was easy to figure out.. and surely it is likely helpful for guys to have plans based on where they are at, rather than based on what others think about which way the price might go.
If guys are still accumulating then they better keep on doing it... and yeah, maybe there is a bit of ambiguity as to when the accumulation phase is over or mostly over, which should in part be informed based on the stack size.. and sure other individual financial and psychological circumstances. If guys know that they are still in their BTC accumulation phase then they accumulate at $126k, and at $120k, and at $105k and at $95k and down to whatever correction that the BTC price might go, and that ongoing accumulation should help to keep them focused and without getting distracted.
I suppose the part of getting through accumulation status does not make matters easier, yet guys have to know where they are at in order to know how to deal with it, and I surely doubt that trading comes into play or is much of a factor except if they are a degenerate gambler, then maybe they should at least limit their trading to less than 10% the size of their bitcoin stash, if they are able to accomplish such, which gamblers tend to have difficulties placing limits on themselves.
I could have sold for any number of reasons that does not change the outlook of Bitcoin and there is no need to try to spread fear about the coming price movement just because I sold?
I don't know what value comes from paying attention to folks who are talking about trading or talking their books and even BTC price actions should not really be very relevant for guys who are still in their bitcoin accumulation phase.. that is if you are in such a phase, then you just keep buying, or at least that is what I think is the approach for guys in their bitcoin accumulation phase, whether the bitcoin price might go up, down or sideways from here.. But, hey? what do I know?
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