Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotATether]

Meanwhile in exchange land...


https://x.com/LizKNapolitano/status/2009443256673972497

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

I do not know that podcast or the people on it, but NASA has very nice empirical proof: https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/evidence/

All I ask for is a general acceptance it is real and not a hoax. And some characters have been leveraging unrealistic FUD about global warming for their own reasons (usually media attention) and that too is not what we should focus on.

I think the problem will solve itself soon with fusion energy. And talking of Bitcoin, I wonder what cheaper fusion energy will do for Bitcoin. Any thoughts?

Climate change is a reality, specially south Asian countries are experiencing drastic change in climate. Summers are getting more hot and their duration is also increasing. This is something I personally experiencing because I belong to that region. 

New Human inventions are doing more damage to environment then good.

Traditionally paper bags were used and we were told that to stop deforestation, plastic is the solution and today we are reverting back to paper bags to stop plastic pollution.

Just a reminder that no amount of taxes or regulation is going to stop the oceans from boiling one day. The only real solution to global warming is space exploration.

oceans are going to boil??

when is that?

[666betdecom]

247

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

I do not know that podcast or the people on it, but NASA has very nice empirical proof: https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/evidence/

All I ask for is a general acceptance it is real and not a hoax. And some characters have been leveraging unrealistic FUD about global warming for their own reasons (usually media attention) and that too is not what we should focus on.

I think the problem will solve itself soon with fusion energy. And talking of Bitcoin, I wonder what cheaper fusion energy will do for Bitcoin. Any thoughts?

Climate change is a reality, specially south Asian countries are experiencing drastic change in climate. Summers are getting more hot and their duration is also increasing. This is something I personally experiencing because I belong to that region. 

New Human inventions are doing more damage to environment then good.

Traditionally paper bags were used and we were told that to stop deforestation, plastic is the solution and today we are reverting back to paper bags to stop plastic pollution.

Just a reminder that no amount of taxes or regulation is going to stop the oceans from boiling one day. The only real solution to global warming is space exploration.

oceans are going to boil??

when is that?

Restaurant at the End of the Universe

its on the a la carte menu

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

Climate change is a reality, specially south Asian countries are experiencing drastic change in climate. Summers are getting more hot and their duration is also increasing. This is something I personally experiencing because I belong to that region. 

New Human inventions are doing more damage to environment then good.

Traditionally paper bags were used and we were told that to stop deforestation, plastic is the solution and today we are reverting back to paper bags to stop plastic pollution.

Just a reminder that no amount of taxes or regulation is going to stop the oceans from boiling one day. The only real solution to global warming is space exploration.

By space exploration, if you mean moving to other planet then that's solution for elite countries only. Billions of people still have to live on this planet and for them their is need to find solution for global warming.

    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

To me, the conundrum is why bitcoin decoupled from everything else (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, other metals, other commodities) in the last quarter of 2025.
I can't find any coherent explanation.

@Biodom - Here is your answer to the mystery (conundrum):

Bitcoin decoupled in Q4 2025 because structural shifts—like massive ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity—made it trade on its own fundamentals rather than macro risk sentiment, while a leverage reset and unique supply dynamics amplified its divergence from traditional assets.

Here are the Key Drivers of Bitcoin’s Decoupling:

1. Institutional Adoption & ETF Flows
- BlackRock’s IBIT ETF surpassed $70B in assets and Fidelity's FBTC ETF surpassed $30B, with Vanguard and other asset managers also offering Bitcoin ETFs.
- This institutional embrace gave Bitcoin a distinct investor base, less tied to equity or commodity cycles.

2. Regulatory Clarity
- The GENIUS Act (stablecoin rules) was already in effect, and the pending CLARITY Act signaled a comprehensive framework for crypto markets.
- This reduced “regulation by enforcement” fears and encouraged long-term positioning by institutions.

3. Leverage Reset
- Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025, but overleveraged positions unraveled, triggering forced selling.
- The sharp drawdown to ~$86,000 in November created a unique risk-off event not mirrored in equities, bonds, or commodities.
- By December, Bitcoin stabilized around $92,500–$93,000, showing resilience independent of broader markets.

4. Macro & Market Context
- Global equities and bonds posted steady gains in Q4 2025, driven by a weaker dollar and rotation into non-US markets.
- Commodities like gold and silver remained relatively stable, tracking inflation and currency trends.
- Bitcoin, however, became less sensitive to macro easing expectations and more driven by crypto-specific flows.

5. Supply Dynamics
- With halving in 2024 reducing new issuance, scarcity effects intensified in 2025.
- Institutional custody solutions made Bitcoin more accessible, reinforcing its “digital gold” narrative while still behaving differently from physical commodities.

Risks & Trade-Offs:

- Volatility: Bitcoin’s decoupling was partly due to forced liquidations, showing fragility in leverage-heavy markets.
- Sustainability: Institutional flows may stabilize Bitcoin, but if ETF demand wanes, correlations could re-tighten.
- Policy Dependence: Passage of the CLARITY Act remains crucial; without it, regulatory uncertainty could reintroduce correlation with risk assets.

Bitcoin’s Q4 2025 decoupling wasn’t just a short-term anomaly—it reflected structural independence emerging from institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, even as leverage-driven volatility reminded investors of its unique risk profile.
The bottom line is this:

Bitcoin’s decoupling in late 2025 was not just a temporary reset - it reflects deeper structural changes from institutional adoption, ETF flows, and regulatory clarity.

Q1 2026 will be an important transitional phase, with volatility and sideways trading likely until regulatory outcomes and macro conditions stabilize.

Here is what we should want to happen in 2026 - - The CLARITY Act passes and ETF inflows remain strong, making Bitcoin’s independence from stocks and commodities solidify into a lasting trend with an upward price.

Lastly, bitcointalk's uninformed member 'JayJuanGee' should accept the absolute fact that spot Bitcoin ETFs are very good for Bitcoiners who self-custody as well as investors in Bitcoin that hold shares of a Bitcoin ETF!  It's past time JJG welcome this truth!

[philipma1957]

hopefully maybe correct.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

a good thing about slot theory means the 4 year cycle died.

the tank or real drop was after April 1 back in 2022 42k to 29k on may 12.

which means maybe we really tank around  April this year.

I don't get it? Do you mean to say you don't agree that the cycle theory is dead? If you do then we should not tank around April.

it means I do not know what will happen and that I am in doubt as to uppity sideways or down for 2026.

But I still stack all my mining coins about 0.0011 a day or 0.0330 a month

I also but a bit when I sell silver.

If I push hard I could leave the 1+ btc rank and grow to the 2 btc rank by Jan 2027

Maybe it is just me but sometimes your posts come across like the opposite, statements of certainty. I have some trouble interpreting them at times. Thank you for explaining. I think that in the coming time we will be able to confirm whether the cycle theory is dead or not. The coming months are key.

[Lucius]

It seems that thousands of people who planned to come to the world football championship in the US this year will still stay at home, because the new rules for entering the country will require most Europeans to submit their profiles on social networks (5 years ago) and all e-mail addresses, phone numbers, including those of close family members from the past 10 years, and biometric data. I'm surprised they didn't remember to ask for information about cryptocurrencies.

Even if the traveler is subsequently given the green light to enter the country, immigration officials can turn them back or detain them without any explanation. In any case, the number of travelers from the EU to the US has already fallen by an average of about 10% in the last year, and as things stand, it will be even greater.

[OutOfMemory]

Climate change is a reality, specially south Asian countries are experiencing drastic change in climate. Summers are getting more hot and their duration is also increasing. This is something I personally experiencing because I belong to that region.  

New Human inventions are doing more damage to environment then good.

Traditionally paper bags were used and we were told that to stop deforestation, plastic is the solution and today we are reverting back to paper bags to stop plastic pollution.

Just a reminder that no amount of taxes or regulation is going to stop the oceans from boiling one day. The only real solution to global warming is space exploration.

By space exploration, if you mean moving to other planet then that's solution for elite countries only. Billions of people still have to live on this planet and for them their is need to find solution for global warming.

    

Space exploration is a weak excuse to take care of our earth's environmental problems. Ask any serious scientist. SE is a technocrat's wet dream, nothing more.
Well, maybe also a background for another science fiction novel.

It seems that thousands of people who planned to come to the world football championship in the US this year will still stay at home, because the new rules for entering the country will require most Europeans to submit their profiles on social networks (5 years ago) and all e-mail addresses, phone numbers, including those of close family members from the past 10 years, and biometric data. I'm surprised they didn't remember to ask for information about cryptocurrencies.

Even if the traveler is subsequently given the green light to enter the country, immigration officials can turn them back or detain them without any explanation. In any case, the number of travelers from the EU to the US has already fallen by an average of about 10% in the last year, and as things stand, it will be even greater.

Well, they can also have my DNA, in a used, ol'dirty lubber 

[BitHodlers]

It seems that thousands of people who planned to come to the world football championship in the US this year will still stay at home, because the new rules for entering the country will require most Europeans to submit their profiles on social networks (5 years ago) and all e-mail addresses, phone numbers, including those of close family members from the past 10 years, and biometric data. I'm surprised they didn't remember to ask for information about cryptocurrencies.

Even if the traveler is subsequently given the green light to enter the country, immigration officials can turn them back or detain them without any explanation. In any case, the number of travelers from the EU to the US has already fallen by an average of about 10% in the last year, and as things stand, it will be even greater.

Good for the US as Europe is full of radicals and terrorists. You can't make this stuff up..

UAE cuts UK from scholarship funding over extremism concerns

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/uae-cuts-uk-scholarship-funding-over-extremism-concerns

[BTCETFInvestor]

a good thing about slot theory means the 4 year cycle died.

the tank or real drop was after April 1 back in 2022 42k to 29k on may 12.

which means maybe we really tank around  April this year.

I don't get it? Do you mean to say you don't agree that the cycle theory is dead? If you do then we should not tank around April.

it means I do not know what will happen and that I am in doubt as to uppity sideways or down for 2026.

But I still stack all my mining coins about 0.0011 a day or 0.0330 a month

I also but a bit when I sell silver.

If I push hard I could leave the 1+ btc rank and grow to the 2 btc rank by Jan 2027

Maybe it is just me but sometimes your posts come across like the opposite, statements of certainty. I have some trouble interpreting them at times. Thank you for explaining. I think that in the coming time we will be able to confirm whether the cycle theory is dead or not. The coming months are key.

@BitHodlers - It's not just you! Sometimes the way Phil expresses his view it comes across as completely counter to what is expected and difficult, if not impossible to decipher.