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January 13, 2026, 10:05:37 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26911608 times)
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BTCETFInvestor
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January 12, 2026, 05:51:17 PM

If the CLARITY Act passes, analysts expect it to provide a significant boost to Bitcoin’s price by reducing regulatory uncertainty, curbing market manipulation, and accelerating institutional adoption.

In 2025, regulatory clarity drove 86% institutional Bitcoin adoption, with spot ETFs managing over 800,000 BTC and BlackRock’s IBIT reaching $100B AUM with Fidelity's FTBC reaching $25B AUM. Passage of the Act could expand this trend much further.

Analysts project the Act could cut crypto market manipulation by 70–80%, making Bitcoin appear safer to pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors. With clearer custody rules and banking guidance, institutional-grade solutions will attract more long-term capital, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s price swings.

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January 12, 2026, 05:56:03 PM

Analysts project the Act could cut crypto market manipulation by 70–80%, making Bitcoin appear safer to pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors. With clearer custody rules and banking guidance, institutional-grade solutions will attract more long-term capital, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s price swings.
That sounds like a number that somebody made up. How does someone calculate that the manipulation will be reduced by 70-80%?  Roll Eyes
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January 12, 2026, 05:59:35 PM

Analysts project the Act could cut crypto market manipulation by 70–80%, making Bitcoin appear safer to pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors. With clearer custody rules and banking guidance, institutional-grade solutions will attract more long-term capital, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s price swings.
That sounds like a number that somebody made up. How does someone calculate that the manipulation will be reduced by 70-80%?  Roll Eyes

The US Senate Banking Committee with the Bill aims to reduce crypto market manipulation by 70% to 80% significantly.

Maybe this will help to explain it - Here: https://coinpedia.org/news/us-senate-to-vote-on-clarity-act-on-january-15-what-it-means-for-crypto/

If the CLARITY Act does not pass the committee vote, the long-term impact on crypto will be limited. Analysts warn that short-term market sentiment will take a hit.
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January 12, 2026, 06:01:17 PM


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January 12, 2026, 06:13:43 PM

How long have we been in this 87-90k range by now, it feels like an eternity.

First 2 days of January?

Since then it's been mostly over $90k.

the slot shifted and is more like 89-94k

works for me. I mine at a profit and get my btc at about 65k a coin with the mine. The only issue with the mine is what the difficulty will do.  With the off price the diff did drop



Phil - How are you able to get such a low electricity rate for your New Jersey location (presumed to need a rate under $0.07 per kWh) to make it profitable to mine BTC when the price is as low as $65k a coin?


my 9 s21xp units and 1 L9 run at iowamining.io

i run a few pieces at a loss at my house for heat and some sales and testing.
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January 12, 2026, 06:27:52 PM

How long have we been in this 87-90k range by now, it feels like an eternity.

First 2 days of January?

Since then it's been mostly over $90k.

the slot shifted and is more like 89-94k

works for me. I mine at a profit and get my btc at about 65k a coin with the mine. The only issue with the mine is what the difficulty will do.  With the off price the diff did drop



Phil - How are you able to get such a low electricity rate for your New Jersey location (presumed to need a rate under $0.07 per kWh) to make it profitable to mine BTC when the price is as low as $65k a coin?


my 9 s21xp units and 1 L9 run at iowamining.io

i run a few pieces at a loss at my house for heat and some sales and testing.

Interesting! I don't understand! Are your 9 s21xp units and 1 L9 physically at your house, or are they in Iowa?
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January 12, 2026, 06:44:35 PM

those 10 pieces mentioned which are my best pieces are physically in iowa and or south dakota as he has five containers for gear.

four smaller ones in south dakota and the larger one in iowa .

he can do about 2.5 megawatts of units about 600-650 s21xps and or L9s

if he were all s21xps it would be 600x270=162,000 th

or 162ph
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January 12, 2026, 06:59:10 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), OutOfMemory (2), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), BitHodlers (1)

Analysts project the Act could cut crypto market manipulation by 70–80%, making Bitcoin appear safer to pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors. With clearer custody rules and banking guidance, institutional-grade solutions will attract more long-term capital, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s price swings.
That sounds like a number that somebody made up. How does someone calculate that the manipulation will be reduced by 70-80%?  Roll Eyes

What makes even less sense is WHY would people assume that manipulation would be reduced because of institutional involvement and regulatory clarity?

And what mechanism would be in play to supposedly cause that reduction?

Allow me to speak in parables for a moment.

___parable mode___

I use an open source third-party developed keyboard on my Android phone. It has a voice recognition app as well that is a sort of a partner software to it.  The main reason I have chosen to use this keyboard is privacy. The keyboard does not send any information out across any network connection I recommend this keyboard wholeheartedly. However, one should do one's own research.

https://keyboard.futo.org/

What is most interesting to me is what both a Samsung phone and all of the other manufacturers that use the default Google-based GBoard do every time you set the keyboard app to a different apk.




Samsung's warning is similar. And when you answer yes here, the operating system will activate this third party extra dangerous keyboard, but also Gboard as well. If you don't want that on, you have to turn it off again for some reason.

But I feel comfortable because the Futo keyboard has no connection to the internet. And unlike Samsung and Google, it doesn't send your information to their servers.  Samsung and Google do, however, and of course this is for the reasons of making sure that your spelling is correct, choosing what word to suggest next, or changing your voice recordings to text.  

Also, to reduce manipulation by 70% percent. No, I mean, what was I thinking? Also, to keep you safe from third parties seeing your data.

___end of parable___

Wat je zegt ben jezelf, met je kop door de helft.

For those who have the ears to hear...

Amen.
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January 12, 2026, 07:01:14 PM


Explanation
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January 12, 2026, 07:13:05 PM

I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin, including what seems to be a current attempt to capture bitcoin in various ways, including but not limited to various aspects of the clarity bill and how clarity does not really protect individual financial self-sovereignty, individual financial privacy and/or abilities to transact without encumbrances.  

Maybe I am deviating from the "stable" idea that you raised, even though maybe, in current times, in my mind I am connecting these convoluting stable coins (that are somewhat pegged to to the dollar) with bitcoin.. which brings us back to aspects of the objectives of the clarity act.. .. and funny even with Tether that had been an outsider that seems to be becoming more and more co-opted - yet at the same time much (if not most) of its activities take place outside of the United States, even though they seem to be taken into the fold more and more as well as Binance being taken more and more into the fold, too.
. and will it be retested or not during what seems to be an ongoing so far slowly gravitation up.


Yes you're totally right...but there's a mild tension between the two meaning of "Stable" here...
First...there's 'Technical stability'...(Transactions... nodes sync.. protocol works e.t.c)

Second... (regulatory/political stability)..that is freedom from the government

Actually.. Bitcoin can be technically stable while being unstable 'politically'..so I think the question should be..can Bitcoin really remain uncesorable..??...what if they control the ways we get Bitcoin??..(exchanges...stable coins..bridges between crypto and money)..if the government can regulate these,then they can identify who's selling an buying....they can also block some certain people from accessing Bitcoin and track every transaction...

If we really can't buy Bitcoin without permission from the government..or if every entry point is monitored..does Bitcoin freedom really matter..??
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January 12, 2026, 07:27:34 PM

those 10 pieces mentioned which are my best pieces are physically in iowa and or south dakota as he has five containers for gear.

four smaller ones in south dakota and the larger one in iowa .

he can do about 2.5 megawatts of units about 600-650 s21xps and or L9s

if he were all s21xps it would be 600x270=162,000 th

or 162ph

Phil - That is indeed interesting. Will you please explain how this is done. Do you buy the equipment and then ship it to a company in Iowa and South Dakota for them to setup and operate (run) it on your behalf? Or, does the company have the equipment and you lease it from the company located in Iowa and South Dakota?
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January 12, 2026, 07:58:26 PM

this place turned into a tumbleweed desert

....apparently BTC is a stable coin now

I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin....

I was referring to the price being at around 90500 for quite some time... however she wanna go up now it seems

Quite some time? A whole day?
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January 12, 2026, 08:01:15 PM


Explanation
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January 12, 2026, 08:05:34 PM

this place turned into a tumbleweed desert

....apparently BTC is a stable coin now

I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin....

I was referring to the price being at around 90500 for quite some time... however she wanna go up now it seems

Quite some time? A whole day?

Who refers to Bitcoin as stable? Also, I think it is funny that people complain when others say the price is going to drop and they also have a problem when people say the price is stable.  That is what you call being overinvested and emotionally linked to your investment. This is a speculation thread, but some people think it is an up only thread.  Cheesy
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January 12, 2026, 08:12:03 PM
Merited by OgNasty (1)

this place turned into a tumbleweed desert

....apparently BTC is a stable coin now

I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin....

I was referring to the price being at around 90500 for quite some time... however she wanna go up now it seems

Quite some time? A whole day?

Who refers to Bitcoin as stable? Also, I think it is funny that people complain when others say the price is going to drop and they also have a problem when people say the price is stable.  That is what you call being overinvested and emotionally linked to your investment. This is a speculation thread, but some people think it is an up only thread.  Cheesy

Well, it's an up only thread for sure (page-count-wise) Wink
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January 12, 2026, 08:37:17 PM

Analysts project the Act could cut crypto market manipulation by 70–80%, making Bitcoin appear safer to pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors. With clearer custody rules and banking guidance, institutional-grade solutions will attract more long-term capital, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s price swings.

Pension funds are supposed to invest primarily for the long term. Market manipulation does not affect that at all.

"Regulation bitch, get out the way, ain't got no time for oversight while I'm busy getting paid" 🤪
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January 12, 2026, 08:56:18 PM

this place turned into a tumbleweed desert

....apparently BTC is a stable coin now

I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin....

I was referring to the price being at around 90500 for quite some time... however she wanna go up now it seems

Quite some time? A whole day?

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January 12, 2026, 09:01:18 PM


Explanation
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January 12, 2026, 10:01:15 PM


Explanation
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January 12, 2026, 10:41:36 PM
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[edited out]
Government has always moved at a slow pace! Here is what the GENIUS act has resulted in thus far - all good for further follow-on acts, which will [also] be favorable for Bitcoin, with more promising action for Bitcoin yet to come!

The GENIUS Act created the first comprehensive U.S. federal framework for regulating payment stablecoins, bringing them inside formal financial oversight while aiming to balance innovation, consumer protection, and monetary stability. It passed in July 2025 and is now shaping crypto markets, banking practices, and regulatory enforcement.

Also known as steps towards CBDC.

this place turned into a tumbleweed desert
....apparently BTC is a stable coin now
I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin....
I was referring to the price being at around 90500 for quite some time... however she wanna go up now it seems

Beginning of the week fake out?

Or, the real thing, this time?

I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin, including what seems to be a current attempt to capture bitcoin in various ways, including but not limited to various aspects of the clarity bill and how clarity does not really protect individual financial self-sovereignty, individual financial privacy and/or abilities to transact without encumbrances.  

Maybe I am deviating from the "stable" idea that you raised, even though maybe, in current times, in my mind I am connecting these convoluting stable coins (that are somewhat pegged to to the dollar) with bitcoin.. which brings us back to aspects of the objectives of the clarity act.. .. and funny even with Tether that had been an outsider that seems to be becoming more and more co-opted - yet at the same time much (if not most) of its activities take place outside of the United States, even though they seem to be taken into the fold more and more as well as Binance being taken more and more into the fold, too.
. and will it be retested or not during what seems to be an ongoing so far slowly gravitation up.
Yes you're totally right...but there's a mild tension between the two meaning of "Stable" here...
First...there's 'Technical stability'...(Transactions... nodes sync.. protocol works e.t.c)

Second... (regulatory/political stability)..that is freedom from the government

Actually.. Bitcoin can be technically stable while being unstable 'politically'..so I think the question should be..can Bitcoin really remain uncesorable..??...what if they control the ways we get Bitcoin??..(exchanges...stable coins..bridges between crypto and money)..if the government can regulate these,then they can identify who's selling an buying....they can also block some certain people from accessing Bitcoin and track every transaction...

I had initially responded to an assertion of BTC price stability, which seems different from what you are talking about, even though I am not opposed to talking about other concepts of stability (or lack thereof).

If we really can't buy Bitcoin without permission from the government..or if every entry point is monitored..does Bitcoin freedom really matter..??

Many of us likely recognize and appreciate that bitcoin's value come from abilities to act outside of control of 3rd parties, and accordingly peer to peer... and so even if there are various ongoing attacks and infringements on bitcoin's already existing capabilities, many longer term bitcoiners would still speculate quite a few difficulties to either stop or to subsequently punish anyone from transacting with bitcoin when they already might have bitcoin stored in various places - so in that regard government and financial institutions (who might end up acting as government proxies from time to time) still will have difficulties either completely controlling and/or monitoring bitcoin transactions as long as they are not able to shut down all of the ways that folks transact and even if they continue to work towards that and/or to dissuade (or entice) folks in regards to the holding and/or transaction methods of normies.

There are plenty of the more recent entrants into the bitcoin space who would love to preserve their own abilities to transact privately and without third parties while dissuading, discouraging and/or even blocking normie plebs from being able to do the same...and there are also likely some folks who fail/refuse to recognize from where bitcoin's value comes which likely means that the battles in regards to abilities to transact are not going to end anytime soon - even if an overwhelming majority of prior bitcoin are moved into 3rd party custodians - even though there could be questions in regards to how smaller minority of bitcoiners can continue to directly transact even while they are ongoingly being lured into third-party solutions and potentially not even realizing the difference.. which surely seems to be part of the goals related to wanting to neuter bitcoin in regards to certain parts of the user base and perhaps with goals of ONLY the rich and well connected being able to engage in peer to peer transactions.

I doubt that it is in the interest of normies to just give in to the manipulation, control and coercion, and accept loss and just use third-party solutions rather than ongoingly supporting ways to transact directly in bitcoin and to hold our own private keys... Even gold and silver bugs likely realize the advantages of direct ownership of the product rather than holding paper versions of it, and many of us recognize and appreciate that bitcoin was designed to be able to more easily hold it and transact in it, which contributes towards bitcoin being around 1,000x or more valuable than either gold or silver in terms of its monetary characteristics... do we need to go over those?  Verifiability, scarcity, transportability, divisibility, ability to store/transact with low fees (low costs) and a few more characteristics that I don't know off the top of my head.

this place turned into a tumbleweed desert

....apparently BTC is a stable coin now
I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin....
I was referring to the price being at around 90500 for quite some time... however she wanna go up now it seems
Quite some time? A whole day?

We know some of the guys in these here parts are impatient in regards to corrections that we might have from time to time, and sure it is quite likely that bitcoin is not necessarily going to go up as much as many of us would prefer, yet what can be done?

Many of us have been in bitcoin for a bit of time, so we might have to decide the extent that we are losing patience - including our potentially getting distracted by short-term noise - even though surely I am not going to proclaim to really know if the BTC price is going up or down from here, even though i presume that we are still in a bull market since I presume that we have not yet been knocked out of the bull market that has been happening since around November 2022.

In other words, it seems we are still in a correction that brought us below $100k a bit more than 2 months ago, and surely any of the various price movements under $100k seem to serve as continuous and ongoing noise rather than anything meaningful to focus upon... even though it would be too bad if LFC ends up winning our 100k satoshis bet based on a potential lack of achieving another ATH prior to April 1.

this place turned into a tumbleweed desert
....apparently BTC is a stable coin now
I continue to get a bit irritated when people refer to bitcoin as if it were stable when there is an underlying war (battle) going on around bitcoin....
I was referring to the price being at around 90500 for quite some time... however she wanna go up now it seems
Quite some time? A whole day?
Who refers to Bitcoin as stable? Also, I think it is funny that people complain when others say the price is going to drop and they also have a problem when people say the price is stable.  That is what you call being overinvested and emotionally linked to your investment. This is a speculation thread, but some people think it is an up only thread.  Cheesy
Well, it's an up only thread for sure (page-count-wise) Wink

I think that it is up only also when you zoom out, which is the most important in terms of accumulating and holding bitcoin over the long term.

Guys who try to trade the inevitable ups and downs are likely to end up with fewer coins than those who don't but hey, OgNasty thinks he knows everything, even though he is still trading bitcoin, which either means he don't have enough or perhaps it means that based on a flaw in his character that he will never have enough... so he wants to proclaim that he is smarter than everyone else with an ongoingly shifting narrative.., including early he was proclaiming sub $50k prices as if they were inevitable.. . and sure it is possible to get such prices, yet far from inevitable and a long shot at best.

Just imagine that if OgNasty had stayed focused on accumulation ONLY in his earlier years, even going as late as 2017, he would have quite a few coins, and he would not have to trade them in order to be able to live off of them.  He even admits that in 2017, he sold too many coins too soon.. .. and surely a lot of guys made those kinds of mistakes and still had not learned their lessons, which is likely part of the reason that OgNasty fucks around with trading while trying to act like he knows something about it, yet he likely has fewer coins than guys who diligently started to accumulate coins as late as 2017, even though he (OgNasty) had a 6 year head start on those entrants.

Maybe I could give an example? even a bit of an extreme example of a guy investing more than 2x his income over the past 9 years since the beginning of 2017, so maybe we say that such hypothetical guy earned $80k per year, so over the past 9 years he had a goal to invest 2x his income, which might have meant that he was investing around 20% of his income into bitcoin.. So he was investing $350 per week, and over 9 years he invested slightly more than $160k, and he accumulated 19 BTC.

I bet that the hypothetical guy is doing much better than OgNasty.

With 19 BTC, the guy currently would be able to sustainably withdraw $109k per year and increase the dollar amount of that withdrawal by 7% each year forever into the future.  That would be quite a great place to be based on a strategy that focused on aggressively investing around 20% of his income into bitcoin over 9-ish years.  

I would suggest that even though the guy came to bitcoin nearly 6 years later than OgNasty, he is likely doing better than OgNasty and OgNasty's ongoing fucking around with trading likely shows that he is lacking in focus and even lacking in appreciation of the value of bitcoin... once a decent size stash has been accumulated.

By the way, I would not be surprised if OgNasty proclaimed to have had done better than the hypothetical guy that I pointed out, yet I quite doubt that in reality he did better than such hypothetical guy that he should have had been quite easily able to beat if he had stayed focused on bitcoin accumulation and holding rather than fucking around trying to trade, which truly several of the guys who got into bitcoin prior to 2017 did have advantages in terms of being able to accumulate more bitcoin and without as much capital expenditure as it had taken guys who had entered in bitcoin as late as 2017 and even later.

Also, even though frequently, I mention that guys who had accumulated most of their BTC prior to 2021 were likely much better off as compared to guys who were still accumulating bitcoin in 2021 and thereafter, it is quite likely going to continue to be the case that a stair-stepping of the bitcoin adopters is going to continue to play out, including the ongoing demonstration that the earlier that we had been able to mostly establish our bitcoin stash and to hold onto it (without fucking around trying to trade it), then the better that those guys are going to have been as compared to the traders and as compared with the later adopters.

There also seems to be a bit of a disservice for guys to ongoingly be promoting the ideas that trading bitcoin is a good idea or that it is superior to a strategy that stays focused on ongoingly buy and holding bitcoin rather than fucking around with trying to trade it (to sell with expectations of buying back cheaper).
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