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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
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$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26912599 times)
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OutOfMemory
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January 13, 2026, 06:16:18 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)


just double the ATH

could happen within 1-1.5 years

You must be new here  Wink


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A hundred times "thank you!" for saving me from the gboard satan  Cool

I now have outstandingly smart voice-to-text. I can even switch the language to, say italian, mumble some english into the microphone and hey presto: I get mostly correct italian texts on the display. And it even does punctuation correctly!
This is a cleverly thought out and tidy keyboard, which delivers less mistypes and heals the catastrophic auto-correction of goofboard. Every time i hit space after a string that wasn't in the dictionary, it became "corrected" to some stupid shit. On futo, you have to explicitly tap on a suggestion to get a correction. This thing is rad!
 
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January 13, 2026, 07:59:23 PM

@CryptoJelleNL
$90.5k held as support again, and $BTC is pushing for the reclaim of $93k.
Above there, it's clear skies all the way to $100k.
Bring it on.

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2011000336832405895

I take any claims of "clear skies" with a decently large grain of salt.

Of course, there are going to be appearances of "clear skies," yet coins can easily get moved and put on the market, just like our discussion of walls - they sometimes end up as reverse indications.

I will agree that at various price points, sells can start to disappear based on senses that momentum is changing, and no one really wants to be fighting against momentum.. since many times the guys who are trading (selling) at these various price points, they are likely selling with intentions to buy back cheaper, and if they end up not being successful in their abilities to buy back, then they are likely losing money and needing to account for their mistake in one way or another.  Some of them will double down and then keep losing.. and those are favorite times when these guys keep selling and/or using leverage and totally get wrecked..

Call me a schadenfreudist due to my tendencies to feel moar gooder in times that bitcoin bears are frequently getting wrecked.

[edited out]
As for politics of illegal immigration I think every state allowing sanctuary status is acting in rebellion against the entire USA.

From the start of the United States there was supposed to be state autonomy - and certain things like policing and even definitions of property was presumptively accomplished at the state level.

Of course, there are overlapping ideas about national interest versus state interest - so those interests come into conflict - even though the obvious answer isn't always national preemption - even though folks will presume that national interests trump (no pun intended) states rights.

Those kinds of problems are not easily resolvable and people can be torn on the issues of state rights (or local governance) versus federal (nation-wide) rights depending upon the issue.

I also think that the left / democrats missed the boat bigly by pushing for sanctuary states they were supposed to say republicans are weak garbage pieces of shit that are weak on illegals.

They were supposed to push for 100 % dna scan and id for all american citizens.

It can become quite uncomfortable when the solutions seem to be agreed upon by both sides and results in further and further monitoring and controlling of the people... just like in recent times, in some jurisdictions is that the supposed protection of the children has led to everyone having to show identification (and it is not merely limited to age verification but can be used in all kinds of ways in terms of turning on and turning off information on the interwebs).

and I would not need to drive past 35 police cars and six ice trucks while they looked to see the color of my face.
I am fairly white looking so I know at this time they are not looking closely at me. But to see that show of force is a sobering thought for a guy that spent five years in the Navy hoping to help the world stay at peace.

I went in right after vietnam and actually was naive enough to think peace could last.
That was a long time ago.

Ideas of "what is America? " or any senses of national pride changes from time to time, and patriotism frequently gets used to suck normies into doing things that they might not otherwise be inclined to want to do...  so there can develop increased confusion in regards to who are the "good guys," which seems to have had been an ongoing theme in the recent series of "The 100," if anyone has seen that.  I am not sure if I recommend it, since there is a lot of fantasy in it, which also relates to seeming woke themes in regards to women tending to be the tougher characters (even physically) which seems to a wee bit of a fantasy that carries through various parts of the series.  I get the idea of the good feelings that come from the underdog winning from time to time, yet so many times these themes of woman strong characters (especially in the physical sense), I have difficulties imagining why counter-reality themes are good for mankind.. perhaps it is like the shitcoiner Vitalik proclaiming that their chain (talking about ETH) is better than some other chains (likely implying better than bitcoin) because it is not constrained by physical reality.

Green candles for once - feels nice.
@CryptoJelleNL
$BTC is bouncing from channel support once again.
Another test of the channel midlevel would mean we'll see $150,000, at least. 👀

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2011099738993807854

You cite this guy quite a bit LFC - which causes it to be funny (or maybe ironic?) how you were placing so much credence in what seems to have had been your belief that the lower range of the channel was so much in need to be tested when we had not even had gotten much beyond the mid-range of the channel, including that several times (even recently) you asserted that you were not even going to begin to start to buy back any of the coin that you sold (around $120k) until the BTC price got below $70k - with implications that you considered those prices to be quite likely and even that mid to lower $50ks had decently good chances of being touched upon.

I don't to claim to have hardly any clue since I would not have had sold as much as you did in the $120k area (even if it ended up being less than 15% of your stash), and at the same time, even if I were so bold (and perhaps having similar tax concerns as you), I would not have had been able to resist starting to buy back in the slightly above $100k arena and for sure I would not have had been able to squelch my inclinations to buy in the $90ks and down into the $80ks.. so not sure how much funds I would have had left (from that pile) to buy back below $80k.

You likely realize that ongoingly I maintain funds to buy back bitcoin, including that right now I have funds going into the mid-$30ks, yet any of my funds that are available for rebuying all the way down had been gotten from selling on the way up, so they usally don't even have a 10% spread between selling and rebuying, which means that those kinds of sell and rebuy orders are mostly maintenance orders rather than anything that materially increases my BTC stack size - which largely I would proclaim that my stack hasn't really increased from any of my sell (rebuy back) activities, except maybe it has result my stack not shrinking as much on the way up.

By the way, right now I have actual sell orders that go all the way up to $450k-ish (and many of them were set since December 2024 after the trump pump and I started to consider that my sell orders up to $150k could get put into jeopardy (quickly breached).  Anyhow with several of my orders the dollar values of the increments have been getting larger and larger, so now the increments are around $3k, but then when (or if?) we get into the $200k region the increments are in the $10k arena, and then when (or if?) we get int the $450k region, then the increments are starting to approach $20k between each of the sell orders.

Anyhow, part of the point that I wanted to make is that I had to place some extra BTC on various exchanges in order to have enough money to set those sell orders, since sell orders cannot be placed if there are not actual BTC in my account to sell, and so I had a few of the sell orders that did not have enough BTC, yet after various back and forth in the BTC price action between December 2024 and around October 2025, I was able to fill in the various sell orders since my quantity of BTC had increased enough to be able to pace those sell orders, and sure relatively speaking, the quantity of BTC tends to get smaller and smaller and smaller (even though the dollar value is going up a lot) as the BTC price rises and when (or if?) those various BTC sell orders end up getting filled.

Another thing that I would like to mention.  I had several back and forth buy and sell orders filling between $83k and $96k.  I never had by lower $80k buy orders fill, so when the BTC price swings back and forth sometimes the orders hit and other times they do not.. so the recent ones that sold around $93.5k in around a week ago were filled, but then none of my buy back orders in the lower $89ks were filled (even though they came close to filling), so I did not have an ability to resell in the mid-$93ks because the lower $89ks buy orders were not filled in the last week or so, so my next sell orders do not exist until mid $96ks.. so right now, my own personal spread between buying and selling is $89k to $96.5k..

and yeah, I don't really consider the amounts to be very great.. even though the amounts have surely gone up quite a bit since I started some variation of this practice around $250 (in mid-to-late 2015)... and even though I do not consider the amounts for each of the sales and each of the buy backs to be a lot, we can imagine that since November 2022, I have largely had net selling all the way up from around $18k (I am pretty sure that I refused to sell any BTC in the $16k or $17k prices and even several of my sells below $20k at that time in late 2022 were greatly reduced since I was mostly trying to hedge towards buying) until $126k (I think that my last sell for this local highs was around $124.5k), so then the amounts of the sells all the way up from $18k-ish in late 2022 to $124.5k-ish in late 2025 end up adding up to being quite a lot of overall net value in dollars, and it seems that the built up buy back amounts that were in dollars ended up getting taken off of the books little by little by little over the past few years. So that in November 2022, I ended up putting value into my BTC investment portfolio based on my perceptions of the BTC price going way below where it was supposed to go (which the 200-WMA was around $22k in June of 2022), so that my BTC buy orders ended up going down to around $10k based on the increased value that I felt that I had to put into my bitcoin allocated funds (my bitcoin investment portfolio) - even though none of the buy orders below $15.5k-ish ended up getting filled.. so then when I end up net selling BTC all the way up between late 2022 until late 2025 with some recent net buy backs (since October), there still is dollar value building up in the accounts, even if some of those dollars have been assigned to buy backs that currently have enough money in them to go down to right around $35k.
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January 13, 2026, 08:01:14 PM


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January 13, 2026, 08:22:49 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2026, 08:52:17 PM by BTCETFInvestor




@CryptoJelleNL
$90.5k held as support again, and $BTC is pushing for the reclaim of $93k.

Above there, it's clear skies all the way to $100k.

Bring it on.

I like what is happening! Nice $12k gain in a few hours time and there will be much, much more to come...




When the price of BTC breaks through $100k then the sky's the limit...
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January 13, 2026, 08:27:32 PM

Green candles for once - feels nice.

@CryptoJelleNL
$BTC is bouncing from channel support once again.

Another test of the channel midlevel would mean we'll see $150,000, at least. 👀

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2011099738993807854

If we went up to that top line like in previous cycles years, we'd reach 350k+...

Would feel like in the old days, when Bitcoin surprised everyone with its extreme ups


This chart screams for a breakout which makes $150,000 a base price and  $350,000 the upper range.


which fits the marketcap moving close to five trillion like we just watch silver do.

5 trillion is around a comfortable $250,000 BTC which is feasible.

just double the ATH

could happen within 1-1.5 years

That would be slow.

Look I talk and talk about silver for a reason.  The world has only seen silver moon shot 3 times.

This moonshot action means 3 trillion added in six months and that is a huge thing.
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January 13, 2026, 08:44:05 PM

Green candles for once - feels nice.
@CryptoJelleNL
$BTC is bouncing from channel support once again.
Another test of the channel midlevel would mean we'll see $150,000, at least. 👀

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/2011099738993807854
If we went up to that top line like in previous cycles years, we'd reach 350k+...

Would feel like in the old days, when Bitcoin surprised everyone with its extreme ups

Doesn't it make sense that with the passage of time, the slope of the upward channel should not be a straight line, but instead to gradually become less and less steep... and also that the channel would narrow between the highest portions and the lowest portions.  It cannot be completely scientific or predictable, but instead a set of probabilities that may or may not end up playing out.. so with bitcoin as long as adoption is increasing and the market is not saturated, the slope keeps going up, yet the available market is increasingly already in bitcoin, and even if bitcoin might be contributing to the increasing of the addressable market by opening up new use cases, the expansion of the market is not infinite...even though in bitcoin we have an expression about "bitcoin going up forever," there is likely a bit of an exaggeration in that "bitcoin is going up forever" statement of affairs.

but I seem to remember it passing 106k when biden was president.

Oh gawd you are retarded sometimes.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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January 13, 2026, 08:53:12 PM

[edited out]
I was talking about people who complain when others mention the price going down or being stable when I said they were overinvested. I’m not sure why you took offense to that, as you weren’t the person in my quote who I think is guilty of such behavior. If you think the shoe fits though, feel free to walk around in that mfer.

And of course you (OgNasty) want to feel like you are smarter than everyone else, when you are not.  Even if half the things you said were actually true, we can hardly believe them based on your own ongoing arrogance and seemingly persistent desires to be right and for others to be wrong....

I don't desire people to be wrong.  I desire to make money, which I did a lot of last year.  You desire me to be wrong...  If I wanted people to be wrong, I wouldn't keep telling them the right move to make.  You are critical of everyone's opinions even when they are right and you are wrong, which has been the case with every single disagreement we've had.  Yet you for some reason think your opinion is valuable.  We already know everything you're going to say here forever.  You are a one trick pony who got lucky and now thinks he is some morally superior person.  You aren't.  Your analysis is garbage.  You were screaming buy right before we dropped 40% and bashing me for saying to sell.  Now that I was right and you were wrong you personally attack me instead of apologizing.  You take no accountability for being consistently wrong.  You just pretend to be morally superior while chastising others from your palace of losses.  

I get it.  We all want Bitcoin to go up.  Being delusional about it doesn't make you superior.  It makes you a guy throwing shade at successful people who made profits last year while you nurse your losses.  Lashing out at the people who are right is why I say you are overinvested and emotional.  I stand by that.
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January 13, 2026, 10:01:14 PM


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January 13, 2026, 10:14:09 PM
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RIP Mr. Adams.  Thank you for years of entertaining comics that gave me assurances I wasn't alone in wading through the BS at work.
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January 13, 2026, 10:17:27 PM
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I feel a disturbance in the force and I got a text from my nephew about bitcoin.


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January 13, 2026, 10:22:40 PM

[edited out]
I was talking about people who complain when others mention the price going down or being stable when I said they were overinvested. I’m not sure why you took offense to that, as you weren’t the person in my quote who I think is guilty of such behavior. If you think the shoe fits though, feel free to walk around in that mfer.
And of course you (OgNasty) want to feel like you are smarter than everyone else, when you are not.  Even if half the things you said were actually true, we can hardly believe them based on your own ongoing arrogance and seemingly persistent desires to be right and for others to be wrong....
I don't desire people to be wrong.  I desire to make money, which I did a lot of last year.  You desire me to be wrong...  

Why would I give any shits if you are right or wrong?

My proclamation that you are trying to be right all the time and describe yourself as being smarter than everyone else does not cause me to want you to be wrong.. yet to just observe your own ongoing bullshit for what it is.. whether you happen to get lucky from time to time with your all over the place shifting proclamations in regards to what may or may not happen.

So, yeah, pointing out that you are full of shit may well save folks from relying upon your ongoing nonsense, even though every once in a while you say some smart things, yet even when you might say some smart things from time to time, you cannot even help yourself from proclaiming it was your original thought and that no one else had thought of such thing before you.

Sure, there could be some pleasure in pointing out the various places in which you exaggerated and/or got it wrong, yet the mere pointing out of such evidence does not mean that I gave very many shits, either way, since I am not the one who is proclaiming to know much of anything about the future except that it seems to be based on a variety of probabilities that do not convert into actual facts until after the time had passed, and even when we are describing the past, we might not even agree about some of the past facts or the interpretation of such facts or even how much weight to give past facts in order to attempt to assign probabilities to the likelihood of the happening of future events.

If I wanted people to be wrong, I wouldn't keep telling them the right move to make.  

Sometimes you do that.

You are critical of everyone's opinions even when they are right and you are wrong, which has been the case with every single disagreement we've had.  

I tend to be critical when members speak with certainty, arrogance and when they try to act like they are smarter than everyone else.

Sure, there might be times that I attack members who I otherwise like based on contents of their posts - especially if they seem to be posting about the future with too much certainty - which is partly the motivation behind what got me into my 100k sat bet with LFC in regards to whether another ATH will be reached prior to April 1 or not.

We don't always agree and likely even our personalities become irritating to others. I am not proclaiming to even being very likable, since no one really likes to be criticized - and so sometimes I might go overboard with my tone.  It is not always easy to capture the right tone in the context of text (or forum posts).

From time to time, I will look back at some of my own posts, and I cringe, even though likely at the time that I wrote the post, I was considering the post to be a reflection of what I wanted to say (or felt necessary to say) at the time that I posted it.  There are some times that I have drafted posts and then I decided to sleep on them prior to posting them, and even though I don't tend to change posts, sometimes if the post is potentially controversial or argumentative, then I might go back and edit the post within a few hours of the post.. even though I hardly ever will delete or edit posts if they are more than a day or two old and if I were to edit a post that is that old, I would like put a note in the post to indicate how much later it was that I edited the post.

Yet you for some reason think your opinion is valuable.  We already know everything you're going to say here forever.  You are a one trick pony who got lucky and now thinks he is some morally superior person.  You aren't.  Your analysis is garbage.  

You seem to be reading too much into the extent to which I value my own opinion.

Surely, I post a lot and I have tended to post a lot, yet it is not very frequent that I give disclaimers in regards to my posts being merely my own opinion  - even though I would think that there is some implication that would suggest that each of us are largely stating our own opinion and perhaps backing up some of the facts and the logic that we rely upon in order to reach our opinions.

If we think about posts having factual representations and then having logic to argue conclusions and/or to support opinions based on the facts, then sometimes we might have to provide information to back up our facts and/or our logic, so I tend to appreciate posts that attempt to back up their facts and to contain reasonable logic to support the conclusions, and so many times when any of us show our work in regards to our facts, logic, and conclusions (or opinions) then we might not always agree on the conclusions even if we might appreciate when forum members might point out how they had arrived at their various conclusions.

You were screaming buy right before we dropped 40% and bashing me for saying to sell.  

I doubt that I was "screaming buy" even though I frequently proclaim that any newbie to bitcoin needs to start out by buying and not looking at the price.  So, yeah, I suggest buying for up to 4 years before even considering the BTC price... yet of course, each person has to come to his own conclusions regarding what he is going to do in order to get started investing in bitcoin.

Yes, I ongoingly suggest investing rather than trading, so investing means getting started as soon as possible, and likely holding 4-10 years or longer with any new purchase.  The specifics in regards to how anyone starts to buy their bitcoin is what each person has to determine based on his own assessment of his individual factors.

Unlike you, it is not very likely that I would make any proclamation in regards to knowing what the price is going to do in the short term, even though sure if I say that I believe that we are in a bull market, then my conclusion is that I believe that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, even though surely corrections (even large ones and even quite sustained ones) can happen at any time.  Unlike you, I don't proclaim to know when they are going to happen. 

Even though there are guys who likely follow my suggestions to get started buying bitcoin as soon as possible, I never proclaim to be responsible for their actions, since each person has to decide for himself what he is going to do, including taking information from the internet (or from me) with a grain of salt and coming to their own conclusions regarding what they may or may not do in regards to bitcoin investing, cashflow management or any of the other related topics that I tend to talk about through my forum posts..

Now that I was right and you were wrong you personally attack me instead of apologizing.  

What was I wrong about?

You are trying to proclaim that since you ended up being correct this time (supposedly) in regards to the bitcoin price dropping to $50k (oh wait?) that somehow I was wrong?

There are some of us who either don't trade our bitcoin or we already have largely price neutral systems in place (as I have largely had some version of such in place since 2015 at $250-ish). Mostly, I don't change my strategies based on whether I believe BTC prices might go up, down or sideways, except perhaps a little tweak here and there on the margins.  Largely I have the same systems in place in which if the price goes up then I sell small portions (these days, right around 3% for every time the price doubles), and then I buy back if the price goes down.  There is no fucking around trying to figure out which way the BTC price might or might not go.

Now in regards to newbies or other forum members, if you had read any of my posts (I have a couple of threads on my bitcoin-related investment strategies), then you might well could have had noticed that I frequently suggest that guys have to get to overaccumulation status in regards to their bitcoin by getting started as soon as possible and then persistently, consistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively buying bitcoin.  Accumulation of bitcoin is done through buying it and not selling it, trading it or trying to gamble in regards to BTC accumulation, which can take a lot of time if a guy merely has income streams rather than abilities to reallocate (or frontload) into bitcoin from other funds that he might have...Most guys do not have lump sum funds and they have to take 4-10 years or longer to just ongoingly build their bitcoin holdings before they might start to get close to reaching sufficient accumulation or overaccumulation in regards to their bitcoin stash.

You take no accountability for being consistently wrong.  

And what is it that I am wrong about? 

1) The bitcoin price direction?  I already said that I don't play that game, even though since I suggest that guys get started investing in bitcoin as soon as possible and at any price, yet they still have to figure out their particulars.  I am not telling guys what to do, except get started and perhaps figure out their discretionary income so that they can figure out how much that they are going to invest and also figure out other aspects of their cashflow management systems/practices. I am wrong about that?

2) trading versus investing?  you seem to be advocating that trading bitcoin is better than investing in bitcoin.  I am wrong because I tend to say that investing is better than trading?  I also tend to say getting started is better than waiting.  So you are saying that in this case waiting would have had been better than getting started, especially if we were talking about September/October 2025?  Maybe you should try to be more specific in regards to what you are proclaiming that I am wrong about and what you are supposedly right about?

3) is there something else that you want to suggest yourself to be right about and me to be wrong about?  shitcoins?

You just pretend to be morally superior while chastising others from your palace of losses.  

You seem to be just making shit up, even though I admit that you seem to have some personality problems - so I might be inadverting suggesting that I am morally superior to you in my pointing out some personality problems that you seem to have.. so sometimes if I might be attacking some of your ideas, then you are right, I might throw in some ideas that you have some truth telling issues or exaggeration or problems in which you seem to want to get credit for ideas that were not even from your own creation, even if you might have come to realize the ideas independently.

I get it.  We all want Bitcoin to go up.  Being delusional about it doesn't make you superior.  

I frequently suggest that each of us are in a better place if we attempt to prepare ourselves financially and psychologically for BTC price directions that could go either way and might last for extended periods of time.  You are proclaiming that I am ONLY prepared for UP?

I will admit that my finances are biased towards bitcoin going up, yet I doubt that I am in any kind of perilous situation as you seem to be wanting to make such strawman arguments.

It makes you a guy throwing shade at successful people who made profits last year while you nurse your losses.  Lashing out at the people who are right is why I say you are overinvested and emotional.  I stand by that.

You can stand by whatever you like in your ongoing desires to want to be right and to paint pictures of guys losing value because they had chosen not to trade. Ultimately you come off as petty.

By the way, a little bit of a change of topic (some folks call it off topic (OT), even though many things in this thread are still on topic).

Since the beginning of the year, I have been considering what to do about what seems to have been your ongoing sloppy and uncorrected mistake that you made in reporting your pushups and the number of days in the pushups thread, even though your pushups appear to have had been consistently reported at around 100 pushups for each day that you did pushups, yet for some reason you went from 639 days of doing pushups on December 7, to 677 days of doing pushups on December 9, and then to 700 days of doing pushups on January 1..   Perhaps instead of proclaiming that you are evil, some of us might just proclaim that you are just sloppy.

Even though your quantity of pushups only went up 100 for each of those added pushup reports, it seems to be more of a stupid and inattentive mistake that screws up things for the other participants of that thread rather than something that you would have had been getting any benefit out of the process since your quantity of pushups per day ended up getting diluted down from 101.56 on December 7th and down to 93 per day on January 1.

You may well be one of the main reasons (if not sole reason?) why we cannot have nice things, not only in bitcoin yet also even in the pushups thread.
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January 13, 2026, 10:34:44 PM

^ Congratulations or I’m sorry that happened to you.
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January 13, 2026, 10:43:10 PM
Merited by Hueristic (5), philipma1957 (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/2011198465511133560?s=46
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January 13, 2026, 11:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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January 13, 2026, 11:01:56 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)


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January 13, 2026, 11:19:47 PM

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
[Release No. 34-104594; File No. SR-CboeBZX-2026-002]
Self-Regulatory Organizations; Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc.;

Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change to Amend the Franklin Bitcoin ETF

https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/cboebzx/2026/34-104594.pdf
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January 13, 2026, 11:22:57 PM

I feel a disturbance in the force and I got a text from my nephew about bitcoin.


-His nephew has very inspired texts.
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January 13, 2026, 11:46:15 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)


Certainly you are on the way to pick one up. Wink

I look forward to that "where the dude".
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