To 4 year cycle adherents:
If it goes to 100K, then 60K, you would win (this cycle).
However;
If you sold at 120K (and are located in US)...let's assume that you are a "4-year cycle trader", like some here and Ben Cowen.
You bought at 20K (you were a "genius" and picked it up almost at the bottom of the prior), sold at $120K, "genius" again.
So...your cap gains are 100K. Now, you would have to pay 23.8K/btc federal taxes (unless you sold a small amount nobody cares about) PLUS your state tax (could be anything from 0 in 8 states to up to 10.75% in NJ, 10.9% in NY, 13.3% in CA (non-zero in 42/50 states).
If you are lucky and you don't have state taxes, a simple math shows that you would pay 23.8K per btc in tax, so after that your gain is just 76.2K.
Adding 76.2K to 20K (that you bought at) results in 96.2, which is lower than 97.6K it is currently trading at.
See...you had to be a genius to get slightly less that anyone here got (who bought at 20K and below) who did not sell and hodl, instead.
Basically, a lot of action and taxes and NOTHING else.
Whatever consumption you had accomplished with the proceeds is something else.
It is hard to figure out scenarios in which traders would really be advantaged by buying and selling, and most of the time they are not able to even come close to hitting cycle bottoms and cycle tops to the extent that they might be trying to play the waves of the cycle rather than even worse trying to trade in connection with even smaller BTC price moves.
Traders also have the problem that the BTC price might go up rather than going down, then they end up being screwed from that, and we have many times seen guys selling way too many bitcoin too early in the process because they were planning to buy back cheaper and it did not end up happening.
A more frequent scenario, even if a guy might have had been able to lump sum in, would be that he would continue to average in, so his average is likely going to have much higher prices even if he was able get lucky on some of his buys, to have had successfully bought various dips instead of buying tops.
People who DCA end up tending to buy dips and tops, even if they manually make their buys.
It seems more realistic to pick some timeline and then just show what a budget might have had gotten you for buying over that timeline.
Yesterday, in response to Phil, I had given an example where a 61 year old guy might have had decided to buy aggressively starting from the beginning of 2018 and to have had invested two years of his salary (which yeah, likely means reallocating from various sources) over a period of 3 years.
It would be even more feasible for a guy to be able to make space to be able to buy aggressively at a pace of 25% per year for 8 years... .and surely there can be ways that guys can be aggressive in their ways of accumulating bitcoin, yet it seems to me that even if a guy were to be quite aggressive in his bitcoin accumulation, for something like 8 years, he still might have to have a period of time between the time that he is accumulating and when he transitions into starting to sell his bitcoin.
So event the guy with an $80k per year income who in 2018 started to invest 25% of his income per year, then he would have had been investing into bitcoin at right around $384 per week and he would have had accumulated 10.6 BTC... so then currently he is in a position to start to withdraw at $60k per year, yet if he were to just hold and he would not even need to continue to accumulate more bitcoin, and then perhaps in early to mid 2027, with the same 10.6 BTC stash, he could start to withdraw at his $80k per year income level. It just tends to make sense to me that guys might be better off to buy over a period of time and also to have a bit of a pause between their buying and when they would start to sustainably withdraw... even if they have some lump sum amounts to start, they still might supplement their lump sum at various points along the way.
I do not like JJG for dissing my silver and copper sales that allowed me to add more than .25 btc and to have cash for my power bill for mining.
You are off topic with your shitcoin talk (and your inferior investment talk) for one thing, and the other parts
I already responded in this post up thread.. you little whiner. Another thing is you could see even if you were to spread investing $160k (presumptively two years of income) into bitcoin over 8 years starting from 2018, you still would have had ended up currently with 10.6 BTC.. which would also have had put you in a decently good place to have had stayed focused on bitcoin rather than ongoingly distracted in inferior investments.
You want to continue to whine about them, even though they are inferior to bitcoin, especially if we loook over a couple of cycles rather than your selectively wanting to look at a short period where you happened to have had gotten a lucky pump.
[edited out]
my mistakes in btc occurred 2012-2017 time frame .
i easily should have had 20 btc and failed to do so.
Maybe part of the rationale for starting out a hypothetical of you starting out in January 2018 and going through 2020 was still able to show that you could have had gotten around 20-ish bitcoin by investing two years of an $80k per year income over 3 years.. not necessarily easy, but would have had been doable and also would have had been superior to your fucking around with various inferior investments including copper, silver, mining and whatever other distractions you were involved in between January 2018 and the end of 2020.
Poll
