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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26913936 times)
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January 17, 2026, 08:19:31 PM


@vapourminer - I hope you don't really think I'm a bot...
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January 17, 2026, 08:40:26 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), OutOfMemory (1)

The whole time I was bitcoin mining, I had a canary with me.  If the canary keeled over, that was my cue to get the hell out and happened to me in 2014.  I'm not sure how philipma1957's canary is still singing.
I do not go back into my past to review errors. I just do not do them anymore.
This is very simple stack game  and hodl never sell.
Unfortunately I did not catch on to it until much too late.

If I simply just held my signature earnings and never spent them I would be a wealthy man.
But no use crying over spilt milk.
Just do not spill any more.

I'm sorry (but not sorry) to break the news, you are not really stopping in various aspects of your prior mistakes.  You are just engaging in similar kinds of mistakes, even if at a smaller level, which gets back to the questions of getting out of bitcoin mining.. but you are probably going to do it until you be die.

Regarding signature campaign, I am pretty sure that I got paid around 2 BTC for the about 2 years that I was participating in them 2017-ish timeframe.. but I am pretty sure that I don't have those coins anymore based on my own hackening-related mistakes... so I am not claiming to have had been free of mistakes at my own level.

Sometimes there can be times in which I consider that if I had done x, y and/or z, then that would have had resulted in more coins.. but then if there were more coins and they ended up getting included in something like a hackening event then the extra work in accumulating more coins would not have had resulted in more coins in the end of the day... which also includes any other separate events that any of us might have had in regards to any coins that we held on exchanges, which any of us who have held coins on exchanges, we may well could have had lost some coins.. even though I also had a few incidents where I gained more or less free coins by having them on exchanges, yet overall the losses were greater than the gains..

And, I am not even saying to completely move away from retaining exchange relationships.  They are a pain in the ass, but they also could be avenues for liquidity... and yeah, maybe it is too bad that we do not have more direct avenues for liquidity, since I think that various governments (and even their pressures on exchanges) are purposefully causing way more obstacles and burdens than what needs to be in place that likely lower bitcoin's value due to obstacles in being able to directly spend it.



Regarding the "can men have babies?" question.. we do have the biology versus social norms situation, and we also have some situations in which the sex is ambiguous.. and I think that if the female doctor stuck to those kinds of numbers, then  she could have had argued that there are potential issues with close to 1.7% of the population.. yet she still would have had to stick with the answer to the other question about 49% of the births are clearly boys that turn into men and 49% are clearly girls who turn into women.  The women have the biology to have babies and the men do not.

Here's what I got from Google AI:



Although Google AI results show that around 51.3% of live births are male and 48.7% are female and does not account for the  ambiguous portion.  So that account is 105 boys as compared with 100 girls.. but still the girls have the parts to get pregnant and have babies and the boys do not.



[edited out]
Phil - I'm sure you're no alone in wishing you had held onto your original stash. For others the downfall was their stash was stolen from them by the Mt. Gox hack.  

The U.S. tightening of financial institutions and SEC regulation will help go a long way in making investors feel better about owning Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Seems that some years ago stealing Bitcoin was like the Old West where robbers on horseback robbed the Wells Fargo stagecoach along a hidden path in the woods of the money and gold and silver it was carrying with just one man carrying a rifle to fend off the robbers' attack.     

The MTGOX was a snapshot in time.. and yes a decent number of coins.

Paper bitcoin's does not solve the issue of losing your coins to third parties.

Yes.. you would like to imagine that you are safe in your share of a paper bitcoin, but you are not as safe as you are spinning it to be.

I wish I lost 100 coins at mt gox as I would have gotten a refund back.

I never lost much if any in exchanges.

One of the factual matters is if you do not have bitcoin, then it is a lot harder to lose them.

In other words, it is hard to lose what you do not have.

By the way, back to my other story of losing coins. 

There was one point in time around late 2014 in which I was considering converting a good chunk of my non-bitcoin (largely tax deferred retirement like funds into bitcoin).  i was thinking 1/3 or 1/2, which would have greatly increased my bitcoin holdings, and the BTC price around that time was around $400-ish...

Largely, I decided not to do it, based on hedging ideas and considerations that I had already largely put enough into bitcoin, and it would not be a bad idea to just keep those other non-bitcoin retirement funds in place as a hedge... so then it get's me back to the question regarding if I had converted them, would have they gotten caught up in my own hackening situation or would have ONLY part of them gotten caught up.  I really am not sure since I had various accounts that all got hacked at the same time (the sim swap situation), but they all did not get hacked... so then there is a question of having them and then there is another question of where they would have had been, if I had accumulated additional bitcoin based on a decision to reallocate somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of those accounts into bitcoin.

By the way, the MTGOX folks who were paid made a killing in terms of dollars, even though they only got around 18% of their bitcoin back... yet since the bitcoin had gone from $200 to $95,000 - the percentage rise made up for the haircut that they ended up taking... which surely is one of the advantages of in-kind redemption as compared with the FTX creditors, who received around 20% more of the dollar value of the coins when the coins were at $19.5k (at the time of the bankruptcy filing).. so instead of $19.5k, they got something like $23.4k.. which must have had been really satisfying for them since quite a few of them had been paid off throughout 2025.
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January 17, 2026, 09:10:23 PM


I wish I lost 100 coins at mt gox as I would have gotten a refund back.

I never lost much if any in exchanges.

gox repayment for 100 btc lost back in the day:

~20 btc and the same amount of bcash_lol. plus some chump change in fiat


not bad all things considered, i guess

Above 20% recovery in bankruptcy is much better than usual, especially since the value of those 20% is probably 20X of the value of 100% in 2013.
I've got about 20-24% in Enron...it was like a divvy (psychologically).
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January 17, 2026, 09:14:12 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)


@vapourminer - I hope you don't really think I'm a bot...

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.
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January 17, 2026, 09:35:30 PM


I wish I lost 100 coins at mt gox as I would have gotten a refund back.

I never lost much if any in exchanges.

gox repayment for 100 btc lost back in the day:

~20 btc and the same amount of bcash_lol. plus some chump change in fiat


not bad all things considered, i guess

Above 20% recovery in bankruptcy is much better than usual, especially since the value of those 20% is probably 20X of the value of 100% in 2013.
I've got about 20-24% in Enron...it was like a divvy (psychologically).

I ended up with a free fully loaded Cybertruck for my mtgox mistake.  A trade I would have gladly accepted at the time given the option.  I was even naive enough to escrow a trade for mtgox BTC that ended up costing me $40,000 out of my own pocket after believing Roger Ver's comments at the time.  Still, I probably would've sold the BTC for a few thousand dollars if it hadn't happened so for me it was a happy ending and my Cybertruck is the second best thing I've ever owned.

I also got caught up in the Gemini tragedy, but thankfully I withdrew a large amount of BTC hours before they froze withdrawals.

Now I guess we're waiting to see if Coinbase/Blackrock mishandle the ETF funds?
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January 17, 2026, 10:01:15 PM


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January 17, 2026, 11:23:37 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5), vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

The whole time I was bitcoin mining, I had a canary with me.  If the canary keeled over, that was my cue to get the hell out and happened to me in 2014.  I'm not sure how philipma1957's canary is still singing.


I do not go back into my past to review errors. I just do not do them anymore.

This is very simple stack game  and hodl never sell.

Unfortunately I did not catch on to it until much too late.

If I simply just held my signature earnings and never spent them I would be a wealthy man.

But no use crying over spilt milk.

Just do not spill any more.

 I have to say… what strange trip it’s been!

 From wiring funds to MtGox … trading huge amounts of Bitcoin…all the exchanges that went belly up!

 losing 8 figures and continuing on… it’s not how hard you fall…but that you get up and face each day and continue on!

Easy thing to say… most difficult thing I’ve ever done! It has defined me…

Giving up a lifetime of drinking… quitting …facing my demons…

I really believe that my trials refined me as a person in the smelting pit of life!

Lots of things we would all do differently… carry on… that’s what warriors do !

Thank you all for putting up with all my drunken trolling over the past decade 😝

Cheers OGs n Hodlers …
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January 17, 2026, 11:58:44 PM

Today, the practice and application of science are more widespread across the world.

   -Is the practice and application of science widespread around the world for
 the good of the population or for the good of the state?

 * This is the question that remains.
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Today at 12:08:49 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), psycodad (1)


@vapourminer - I hope you don't really think I'm a bot...

I don't think many of us think you are a bot really.

We think you are someone who is excited to have US dollars exposed to the upward biased price volatility of Bitcoin using commercial derivatives.

And I think we think you were someone who uses a lot of AI to post thoughts and ideas here.  Thus, at least part of the bot label.

I think many of us realize that you walked into what is a vibrant and dynamic (as in often changing) group of Bitcoiners, some of whom have been around for quite some time, and not only have fallen down the rabbit hole extremely far, but dug quite a bit of it for others.

And I think many of us feel you haven't quite understood that you're talking to people who understand this topic quite well.  And that we have a bias against traditional finance, institutional instruments, because we are aware how they have been used in the past to manipulate the prices of real commodities.

And you feel a need to defend and promote the idea of using the ETFs to invest in Bitcoin rather than seeing the value of stepping outside the system in Bitcoin.

And you happen to have picked some of the most "religious" of Bitcoiners to take this stance with.

I think you are often frustrated and defensive and you are angry at particular posters quite a bit and speak freely and extremely disrespectfully.

JJG comes to mind, but not only... OOM (a strange target, really, because he's a fairly wise and gentle human that doesn't cause a whole lot of ruckus for the most part, I would say) I may be on that list as well.  And many of us here may have had frustrations with jjg as he is wordy, (as am I) And tends to snap us back to focusing on the point of why we've been here... some of us for over 15 years.  

So he has gained our respect over the years as an important member of this community, even if sometimes he can be a little preachy and even end up on some of our ignore lists from time to time.

You have not quite gained that level of acceptance here yet. This is not a private club or an old guy's network or anything. It's just a bunch of people who have known each other for quite some time and share a common thread which you are a little bit outside of.

And so here we are.

Or maybe you're a bot.
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@vapourminer - I hope you don't really think I'm a bot...

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

Delivered like a fast and loud frustrated Balkan...
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Today at 12:21:00 AM
Last edit: Today at 02:41:25 AM by BTCETFInvestor


@vapourminer - I hope you don't really think I'm a bot...

I don't think many of us think you are a bot really.

We think you are someone who is excited to have US dollars exposed to the upward biased price volatility of Bitcoin using commercial derivatives.

And I think we think you were someone who uses a lot of AI to post thoughts and ideas here.  Thus, at least part of the bot label.

I think many of us realize that you walked into what is a vibrant and dynamic (as in often changing) group of Bitcoiners, some of whom have been around for quite some time, and not only have fallen down the rabbit hole extremely far, but dug quite a bit of it for others.

And I think many of us feel you haven't quite understood that you're talking to people who understand this topic quite well.  And that we have a bias against traditional finance, institutional instruments, because we are aware how they have been used in the past to manipulate the prices of real commodities.

And you feel a need to defend and promote the idea of using the ETFs to invest in Bitcoin rather than seeing the value of stepping outside the system in Bitcoin.

And you happen to have picked some of the most "religious" of Bitcoiners to take this stance with.

I think you are often frustrated and defensive and you are angry at particular posters quite a bit and speak freely and extremely disrespectfully.

JJG comes to mind, but not only... OOM (a strange target, really, because he's a fairly wise and gentle human that doesn't cause a whole lot of ruckus for the most part, I would say) I may be on that list as well.  And many of us here may have had frustrations with jjg as he is wordy, (as am I) And tends to snap us back to focusing on the point of why we've been here... some of us for over 15 years.  

So he has gained our respect over the years as an important member of this community, even if sometimes he can be a little preachy and even end up on some of our ignore lists from time to time.

You have not quite gained that level of acceptance here yet. This is not a private club or an old guy's network or anything. It's just a bunch of people who have known each other for quite some time and share a common thread which you are a little bit outside of.

And so here we are.

Or maybe you're a bot.

@cAPSLOCK - I fully accept all that as fair.  I think you know I'm not a bot with my connection to the city you recognized and where you said you used to play.    

I appreciate your candor, but you fail to understand why I react in the manner I sometimes do. It was not me that set the groundwork production of what has taken place here.

I came here with an open mind and a friend to all - I was kind and ready to make friends with everyone but immediately I was jumped on relentlessly for absolutely no reason whatsoever. I felt like I was targeted for no reason other than I was an outsider. I tried first calling out the behavior, not the people - but that only made matters worse and they went for the jugular! I was viewed as a target for thugs to beat up on. I don't take kindly to that, no one should! Would you? Hell no!!!

Yes, so here we are!  Point the finger where it belongs, please...    
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Today at 12:21:52 AM


@vapourminer - I hope you don't really think I'm a bot...

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

Delivered like a fast and loud frustrated Balkan...

Lol.  And then you say things like that.
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Today at 12:28:43 AM

Perhaps the real question we should be asking is… Will the price of bitcoin respond positively or negatively to the disclosure of intelligent alien life?

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/bank-of-england-must-prepare-for-ufo-announcement-f3mh8l9vh
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Today at 12:30:02 AM
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I accept all that are fair. I think you know I'm not a bot with my connection to where you used to play in W-S.   

Here is another area in which I think it could be worth explaining something to you.

I do find it interesting and touching that you and I both are aware of a medium sized city in the southeast and that I was able to recognize a picture you post.

But a lot of your talk here dances around exposing personal details in this thread, which is something we are all very careful about here with each other and for each other because some of the members of this thread hold a fortune in Bitcoin.  And therefore, it could be targets for evil people. So talking about where you live or where you've been or things that expose some amount of personal detail isn't smart, honestly.

I anticipate here that I've created an opportunity for you to proclaim one of the advantages of an exchange traded fund.

The revolution isn't that you have to, but that you CAN hold your own keys.  But it is an amazingly important thing.  And it is arguably one of the primary pillars for why Bitcoin, a purely mathematical system for value storage, has value.

Another mistake is the idea that holding Bitcoin eliminates all trust. That's not true. There are always trust and security issues involved with storing value. Where do you put a gold bar? What bank do you trust? Which government will be more favorable to you now and in the future?

We are very aware of these trade-offs. Some of us choose to expose ourselves to more risk in counterparty areas than others, but all of us here take the risk that we are responsible for our own keys. That, too, has a trade-off, a security trade-off, talking about who and where we are, is not something that we do easily here.

Nor should we.

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Today at 12:35:01 AM

Perhaps the real question we should be asking is… Will the price of bitcoin respond positively or negatively to the disclosure of intelligent alien life?

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/bank-of-england-must-prepare-for-ufo-announcement-f3mh8l9vh

Being able to watch this unfold in our world, understanding probably better than the average dog what's actually happening and being powerless to do anything about it is horrible.

I can only take solace knowing that my death is inevitable.

But I do have children and that makes me sad to know they will have to watch even more of this madness unfold.
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Today at 12:45:27 AM


@vapourminer - I hope you don't really think I'm a bot...

either a bot or a self-aggrandizing name-calling and bold-typing nosy simpleton...make a pick.

Delivered like a fast and loud frustrated Balkan...

Lol.  And then you say things like that.

Turnabout is fair play!
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